Introduction to global Introduction to global climate change and impacts climate change and impacts

in Ukrainein Ukraine

www.climategroup.org.ua National Ecological Centre of Ukraine

Iryna Stavchuk, January 2009

www.climategroup.org.uawww.climategroup.org.ua

►Network of 16 non-governmental non-Network of 16 non-governmental non-profit environmental organizations in profit environmental organizations in Ukraine on climate change;Ukraine on climate change;

►Main aim: influencing policy decision Main aim: influencing policy decision makers to reduce GHG emissions in makers to reduce GHG emissions in Ukraine to fight climate change;Ukraine to fight climate change;

What do we do?What do we do?

We comment drafts of We comment drafts of legislation related to legislation related to climate change and climate change and

positions of Ukrainian positions of Ukrainian delegation to international delegation to international

negotiations negotiations

We prepare NGO statements We prepare NGO statements and positions on specific and positions on specific issues, e.g. International issues, e.g. International

emissions trading, state of emissions trading, state of Kyoto protocol Kyoto protocol

implementation in Ukraine. implementation in Ukraine.

Plan of the presentationPlan of the presentation

► Introduction to global climate change: Introduction to global climate change: what is happening?what is happening? what are the reasons?what are the reasons? what are the impacts? what are the impacts?

►Climate change impacts in Ukraine;Climate change impacts in Ukraine;►State of international negotiations on State of international negotiations on

climate change and future obligations climate change and future obligations for Ukrainefor Ukraine

What is happening?What is happening?Facts and observationsFacts and observations

►++0,7 С0,7 С warming from preindustrial levels; warming from preindustrial levels; ►11 11 out of lastout of last 12 12 yearsyears (1995-2006) (1995-2006) are are

warmest in the period of observationwarmest in the period of observation

►Antarctic is melting very fast and some Antarctic is melting very fast and some studies predict total melting by already 2020!studies predict total melting by already 2020!

►Same happening with glaciers all over the Same happening with glaciers all over the worldworld

1970 2005

► Observations show shifting in rain patters Observations show shifting in rain patters with results of:with results of: increase in strength and number of draughts in increase in strength and number of draughts in

tropics and subtropics, which is a tragedy for tropics and subtropics, which is a tragedy for local populations;local populations;

increase in floods in other regions;increase in floods in other regions; increase in number of unstable weather increase in number of unstable weather

events, hurricanes all over the planetevents, hurricanes all over the planet

What are the reasons?What are the reasons?

Changes in Changes in concentraticoncentration of GHG on of GHG over last over last

10000 10000 yearsyears

What are the impacts?What are the impacts?

1.1. Increase in number of extreme weather events: Increase in number of extreme weather events: infrastructure damages, economic losses;infrastructure damages, economic losses;

2.2. More unstable weather events: droughts, floods, More unstable weather events: droughts, floods, heavy winds and rains – impacts on agriculture;heavy winds and rains – impacts on agriculture;

3.3. Water shortages for over 500 million Water shortages for over 500 million people on the planet;people on the planet;

4.4. Increase in sea level rise. Around 100 Increase in sea level rise. Around 100 million people are at the risk of loosing million people are at the risk of loosing their housestheir houses;;

5.5. Up to 50% of flora and fauna can Up to 50% of flora and fauna can disappeardisappear;;

6.6. Risk of invasion by new insects and Risk of invasion by new insects and infectious diseases; infectious diseases;

Dangerous warmingDangerous warming

Necessary global emission Necessary global emission reductions to keep in 2Creductions to keep in 2C

International negotiations:

Industrialized countries: -25-40% by 2020 from 1990

- 80% by 2050

Developing countries wouldalso have to reduce emissions!-50% for the whole planet by 2050

It is more expensive or could be It is more expensive or could be impossible to adopt to climate impossible to adopt to climate

change!change!

Nicolas Stern: to keep within 2C we Nicolas Stern: to keep within 2C we need 1% of global GDP need 1% of global GDP

Inaction means 5-20% losses of Inaction means 5-20% losses of global GDP in the following global GDP in the following

decades.decades.

Economics of climate changeEconomics of climate change

Climate change impacts in Climate change impacts in UkraineUkraine

There are 2 scenarios:There are 2 scenarios:

FirstFirst::

►Countries sign Post Kyoto deal Countries sign Post Kyoto deal with necessary emission with necessary emission reductions to keep warming reductions to keep warming within 2C;within 2C;

► In this case in Ukraine there will In this case in Ukraine there will be certain negative impacts, but be certain negative impacts, but not catastrophic.not catastrophic.

Second:Second:

Emissions in Emissions in Ukraine and in Ukraine and in other countries other countries will not be will not be limited to the limited to the necessary necessary levelslevels

1.1. More extreme weather events: stormsMore extreme weather events: storms, , floods, floods, droughts, heat waves, heavy rains and windsdroughts, heat waves, heavy rains and winds

► Statistics: duringStatistics: during 2001-2005 2001-2005 number and number and magnitude of extreme weather events increased magnitude of extreme weather events increased almost twice in comparison with 1980s and early almost twice in comparison with 1980s and early 1990s.1990s.

Possible changes in average Possible changes in average temperature by 2100temperature by 2100::

► South of UkraineSouth of Ukraine: : summer summer +28...+30°С ( +28...+30°С (nownow

+21...+23°С), +21...+23°С), winterwinter +2...+5°С ( +2...+5°С (nownow -3...0°С) -3...0°С)

► Central and Northern UrkaineCentral and Northern Urkaine: : summersummer +24...+25°С ( +24...+25°С (nownow

+18...+19°С), +18...+19°С), winterwinter +2...+4°С (зараз -3...- +2...+4°С (зараз -3...-

5°С)5°С)

Rain Rain ► South, East, CenterSouth, East, Center: :

Decrease in summer byDecrease in summer by 35-40% 35-40% Decrease in winter byDecrease in winter by 20% 20% Annual river stock decrease byAnnual river stock decrease by 550%0% in south in south

and east regions;and east regions; ► Water shortage for local population, Water shortage for local population,

agriculture and industriesagriculture and industries. .

►Movement of flora and fauna to the Movement of flora and fauna to the pole. Climate of east and south will pole. Climate of east and south will get semidesert features, north will get semidesert features, north will get steppe features;get steppe features;

►Sea level rise;Sea level rise;►Migration to Ukraine from the Migration to Ukraine from the

countries where it will be impossible countries where it will be impossible to live. to live.

What does it mean to reduce What does it mean to reduce GHG emissions?GHG emissions?

1.1. Energy efficiencyEnergy efficiency in all sectors: industrial, in all sectors: industrial, buildings, appliances, transportbuildings, appliances, transport

Energy Intensity in Belarus and Other Countries, 2007

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Energy efficiencyEnergy efficiency

Ukraine in Post Kyoto Ukraine in Post Kyoto negotiationsnegotiations

►Ukraine is an Annex 1 country and Ukraine is an Annex 1 country and should take emission reduction target;should take emission reduction target;

►Ukrainian government announced 20% Ukrainian government announced 20% reduction from the level of 1990 by reduction from the level of 1990 by 2020, but will have to take more. It is 2020, but will have to take more. It is very likely that Ukraine would have to very likely that Ukraine would have to stabilize its emissions by 2020. stabilize its emissions by 2020.

Iryna StavchukIryna Stavchukis@necu.org.uais@necu.org.ua

www.climategroup.org.www.climategroup.org.uaua

Thank you Thank you for for

attention!attention!

Ukraine: GHG emissions Ukraine: GHG emissions 1990-20041990-2004

Ukraine: projections of GHG Ukraine: projections of GHG emissions by 2030emissions by 2030