Climate change impacts

Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia

OUTLINE

• Climate change scenario logics

• Climate change as environmental issue

• Climate change as a problem of national and international security

• Risks of mis-understanding of scenarios by policy makers and politicians

Key QuestionsIncreased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)

Energy

Water Increased

demand 30% by 2030

(IFPRI)

FoodIncreased demand

50% by 2030

(FAO)

Climate Change

1. Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably?

2. Can we cope with the future demands on water?

3. Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty?

4. Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change?

5. Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems?

Biodiversity

The Perfect Storm?

(Beddington, 2009)

Exploration of future climate is relevant…

• Where are we heading?• Actions now influence the future:i. Inertia (lifetime avg. power plant > 40 years;

lifetime CO2 in atmosphere > 100 yearsii. Climate system may change irreversibly, we

may pass thresholds…• We shall (or need) to act:i. Prevent certain futures from happeningii. Adapt to certain futures

The Global Scenario Group "taxonomy of the future”

http://www.gtinitiative.org/perspectives/taxonomy.html

Business class

Over the edge

Creative societies

Shared responsabilities

Markets first

Tribal society

Security first

Battlefield

Cybertopia

‘Clash of civilizations’

Barbarization

Prism

Just do it

Ecologically driven

Regional stewardship

Global sustainability

Local stewardship

Provincial enterprise

‘The end of history’

‘No Logo’

‘Our Common Future ‘

B2

A1 B1

A2

Hyper individualism

Changing courseNew global age

Have & have- nots

The hundred flowers

Sustainability first

Policy first

Great transitions

Turbulent neighbourhoods

Cultural pluralism

Voluntary simplicity

Market World

Transformed World

Fortress World

New Empires

Change without progress

There are many types of scenarios

SRES scenarios logics• Matrixes from pairs of independent and

unrelated axes. • Use axes to deduce scenario logics for the

four quadrants of the matrix (and name them).

Examples: scenario logics (deductive)

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

MEA IPCC (SRES)

www.peer.eu

From exploratory to anticipatory scenarios

IPCC new approach with scenariosRepresentative Concentration Pathways

Vir: Van Vuuren et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

Old /SRES and new /RCPs scenarios

Knutti & Sedlacek (2012)

Primary energy and oil consumption

T Q

Best Case

Most likely

Worst Case

Provisional Scenario Analysis 2050-2100

High Climate Sensitivity

Low Climate Sensitivity

FailedMitigationPolicies

Successful MitigationPolicies

Worst Case

6-8ºC

2-5ºC

3-6ºC

Best Case2-3ºC

Europe: Geographic ChangesEurope: Geographic Changes

+10

-1

+50%

-50%

2080-20992080-2099 Minus Minus 1980-19991980-1999 (A1B)(A1B)

Climate change effects on hydroelectric production potential

Relative change of average (1961-90) total discharge volumes calculated with WaterGAP 2.1 for the

2070s

SCENARIOS

• Have the ability to address complex issues in an integrated manner.

• Have the ability to deal with surprises, system changes, bifurcations.

• Are an excellent tool for communication

• Possibilities for participation are large.

Communication between policy-makers and scientists

”Speaking truth to power”

Aaron Wildavsky

Scenarios communication problem: differences in attitudes and behaviors

(Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000)

Science GovernmentProbability accepted Certainty desired

Anticipatory Time ends at next election

Flexibility Rigidity

Problem oriented Service oriented

Discovery oriented Mission oriented

Failure and risk accepted Failure and risk intolerable

Innovation prized Innovation suspect

Replication essential for belief Beliefs are situational

Clientele diffuse, diverse, or not present

Clientele specific, immediate, and insistent

What is the objective when we communicate scenarios to „users“?

• To raise the awareness of politicians, managers and decision makers about the uncertainty of the future.

• To alert them to emerging problems and possible surprises in the political/business environment

• To help managers and decision makers to “think big” about a problem – creative, comprehensive, open.

What might be their (negative)reaction?

• To raise the awareness of politicians, managers and decision makers about the uncertainty of the future.

• To alert them to emerging problems and possible surprises in the political/business environment

• To help managers and decision makers to “think big” about a problem – creative, comprehensive, open.

• Raising awareness can be understood as criticism of their present program (who wants to disscuss uncertain future).

• A lot of problems already present, no need to add extra burden

• General lack of visions, shortsighted plans very common, thinking „inside the box“

Scenarios help to reduce ourover-confidence into the future

• Ignorance: our scientific understanding is incomplete (‘known unknowns’ & ‘unknown unknowns’)

• Surprise : unexpected events bound to alter future (inherent unpredictability)

• Volition: future human choices matter

Raskin et al., 2002

Understanding uncertaintyKey sources of uncertainty when looking into the future:

• The goal of scenarios is not to predict the future but to tell what decision makers need to know to take meaningful action in the present

• There is never enough information if you don’t want to decide.

• Dealing with Climate Uncertainties requires Political Leadership

The features of media reporting of climate change scenarios

• Informed Citizens is key for understanding climate change action (the lack of public understanding is a major obstacle)

• The media is an important intersection between science and civil society, acting as a frame/filter of scientific knowledge on climate change matters.

• A communication for behavoural change needs independent reporting, well-informed media and also citizens’ media.

• Local media have a crucial role to play beyond disseminating information. There is more information on global processes of climate change but much weaker information at a local level, where the actors in climate change adaptation are.

The features of media reporting of climate change scenarios (reality)

• Media coverage of climate change generally lacks in-depth analysis

• Very rarely the media present science in a responsible way (a climate-movement at the ground level is needed to put pressure on politicians)

• The framing of climate change often reinforces the uncertainty of climate change, casting not only doubts on the science of climate change but also posing reservations on the economic costs of taking action.

• The media too often give shelter to marginal positions that lie outside the scientific consensus in a proportion way bigger than their academic weight.

Warning for the policy makers and media Scenarios are not

• Predictions : A likely description of the future state of a system – thus unconditional upon major exogenous assumptions.

• Extrapolation: A continuation of a trend

• Pure speculation: Any statement on plausability is even impossible

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Information on relevant parameters

For instance,World economy in 100 Years

For instance,climate system

For instance,Weather next week

ENVSEC, 2012

Example of qualitative scenarios (narrative descriptions of future developments(i.e. presented as storylines) Communication?

Participants formulated three distinct scenarios:

1.Clueless, 2.Green Oasis and 3.Chameleon

Another example of qualitative scenarios Communication? Effect? NONE

3 scenarios for Slovenia (2008)

Projekt načrtovanja scenarijev Projekt načrtovanja scenarijev Scenariji razvoja Slovenije do leta 2035 Scenariji razvoja Slovenije do leta 2035

Trendi in priložnosti v času podnebnih Trendi in priložnosti v času podnebnih spremembsprememb

Leta 2008Leta 2008 v okviru Službe Vlade za v okviru Službe Vlade za razvoj, s pomočjo agencije Scenario razvoj, s pomočjo agencije Scenario Development Development

tri zgodbe = scenarijitri zgodbe = scenariji

3 scenariji3 scenariji: ključni : ključni poudarki poudarki

Brez idej :Brez idej : zanikanjezanikanje

Zelena oazaZelena oaza:: ozaveščenost in ozaveščenost in izobraževanjeizobraževanje

KameleonKameleon:: premalo in prepoznopremalo in prepozno

3 scenariji3 scenariji: ključni : ključni poudarki poudarki

BREZ IDEJBREZ IDEJ – – odsotnost vladnega delovanja in zanikanje odsotnost vladnega delovanja in zanikanje motečih učinkov na okolje - upanje, da se problemi rešijo sami motečih učinkov na okolje - upanje, da se problemi rešijo sami od sebe. od sebe. Korektivni ukrepi: ko je že prepozno.Korektivni ukrepi: ko je že prepozno. Vse bolj ekstremni vremenski pojavi Vse bolj ekstremni vremenski pojavi Ni tehnološkega razvoja Ni tehnološkega razvoja Slovenija prostor za umazane Slovenija prostor za umazane tehnologije. tehnologije.

ZELENA OAZAZELENA OAZA – – zgodnji ukrepi, tehnološke spremembe, zgodnji ukrepi, tehnološke spremembe, spremembe stališč in vrednot.spremembe stališč in vrednot. Politike in predpisi: se izvajajo v največji možni meri.Politike in predpisi: se izvajajo v največji možni meri.Gospodarstvo: manj ogljično intenzivno. Gospodarstvo: manj ogljično intenzivno. Splošni nacionalni ponos, “sreča” Splošni nacionalni ponos, “sreča” doseganje trajne doseganje trajne spremembe.spremembe.Globalno sodelovanje. Globalno sodelovanje.

KAMELEON – zgodba evolucije: majhna, posamezna KAMELEON – zgodba evolucije: majhna, posamezna prilagajanja; veliko majhnih korakov brez nove poti.prilagajanja; veliko majhnih korakov brez nove poti.Ni proaktivne naravnanosti.Ni proaktivne naravnanosti.Posamezni ukrepi, brez usklajevanja ali prepričanja.Posamezni ukrepi, brez usklajevanja ali prepričanja.

Climate change •is a threat multiplier•will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many societies•increases number and intensity of conflicts and reduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution •leads to new lines of conflict in the international arena

Climate change as a threat to national security

•The scarcity of water is replacing oil as a flashpoint for conflict between nations in an increasingly urbanized world

•The danger of international competition for adequate water resources will grow inevitably. The increased demand for water could produce intense competition for this essential substance

http://www.availableimages.com/movies/2008/bluegold-worldwaterwars/pictures-bluegold-worldwaterwars_pph_4.htmlhttp://

Climate change effects & migration: Hotspots & Trajectories

WGBU 2007 (modified)

Main trajectories

A Multiplier for Instability

Water Scarcity Demography Crop Decline Hunger Coastal Risks Recent Conflicts

National Security – Climate change linkages

• Climate change could trigger national and international distributional conflicts and intensify problems already hard to manage such as state failure, the erosion of social order, and rising violence

• Climate change will degrade human security and livelihoods via increased risks of disasters, food insecurity, energy poverty etc.

• Recommendation for states policies In every country National Security Strategy should

directly address the threat of climate change to the state’s national security interests.

Evaluate preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather events

Evaluate the capacity of all levels of government and other institutions to respond to the consequences of climate change.

Solutions?

• There is no military solution to climate security, but mainly disaster prevention through good governance, human rights, de-marginalization and empowerment

• Conflict prevention regarding climate change means mitigation and adaptation – ambitious global climate policy must be put into operation

• Mitigation and adaptation serve as prevention of non-climate-change-connected threats and conflicts e.g. energy security, water and food security

Disarray

Mispricing

Disinterest

Maladministration Impatience

Ignorance

Confusion

Regulatory barriers

Cultural barriers

Lack of information

Split Incentives

High discount rates

Externalities and price structures

Policy in a changing climateBarriers

Policy in a changing climateHopefully....

Human-driven erosion of resilience

Source: IGBP 2007