The Impacts of climate The Impacts of climate change on agriculture

7/30/2019 The Impacts of climate The Impacts of climate change on agriculture

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The Impacts of climateThe Impacts of climatechange on agriculture: Vulnerability,change on agriculture: Vulnerability,

impacts and adaptation with reference toimpacts and adaptation with reference toSoutheast Asian countriesSoutheast Asian countries

UniversitiKebangsaanMalaysia (UKM)

am uram ur [email protected]@ukm.my

Institute for Environment & Development (LESTARI)Institute for Environment & Development (LESTARI)

UniversitiUniversiti KebangsaanKebangsaan MalaysiaMalaysia(National University of Malaysia)(National University of Malaysia)PresentedPresented at at UniversitasUniversitas SyiahSyiah Kuala,Kuala, AchehAcheh, Indonesia, Indonesia

IkatetaIkateta UnsyiahUnsyiah, 07, 07 May 2011May 2011


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Presentation Outline Concepts of climate change Global trends of climate change Climate change impacts

Impacts on vulnerable and povertygroups

Adaptation and mitigation Conclusion


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Concepts

What is climate change? The variation in the Earth's global climate or in regional climates

over time, such as* variations in sunlight intensity* greenhouse gas emission* higher sunlight intensity, temperature rise** unexpected rainfall, losses of ecosystem and so on

Caused by processes of internal and external forces to the Earth

More recently, human activities have contributed to climate change

there is 90-95% likelihood that changes in modern climate havebeen in part caused by human actions.


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Carbon dioxide emissions

- 2

Global atmosphericconcentrations ofgreenhouse gases (GHG)increased markedly as a

10000 5000 0Time (before 2005)

,with an increaseof 70% in 1970-2004


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Sources of CO2 emissions and otherSources of CO2 emissions and other

anthropogenic GHGsanthropogenic GHGsEnergy Sector Energy Sector Energy Sector Energy Sector Energy Sector Energy Sector Energy Sector Energy Sector

Energy Industry Manufacturing Industries

Transport Residential Sector Commercial Agriculture

Agriculture Sector Agriculture Sector Agriculture Sector Agriculture Sector Agriculture Sector Agriculture Sector Agriculture Sector Agriculture Sector Crop Agriculture Livestock and Manure Management

Landuse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and Forestry Conversion of Land Consumption of Timber and Deforestation


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Changes in global average

surface temperature

Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the twelve warmestyears in the instrumental record of global surface temperature

50 years 0.128 oC

100 years 0.074 oCPeriod Rate / decade


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Ranges for predicted surface warming

Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1C to 6.4Cover the 21 st century (best estimates: 1.8C - 4C )

year


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Climate Change effects

Temperature projections from 1970 to 2010


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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

Source: Petit et al. (1999 )


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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

2005

2040

(375 ppm)

(440 ppm)


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Average arctic temperaturesincreased at almost twice the

global average rate in the

past 100 years- Annual average arctic sea ice

.decade


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The frequency of heavy

precipitation eventshas increased overmost land areas

- Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1million eo le lost their homes


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The proportion of tropical cyclones reaching higherintensity have increased over the past 3 decades

- Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100 000 estimated deaths


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Intense tropical cyclone activity has increased

in the North Atlantic since about 1970- Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate


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Heat waves have become more frequentover most land areas- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths


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Mountain glaciers and snow cover on average havedeclined in both hemispheres.- The 18,000 year old Chacaltaya glacier, 5,300m (17,400 ft)up in the Andes, used to be the world's highest ski run, now

reduced to a few small pieces of ice


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Summary of projection climate change trends

Temperature to increase 3 oC by 2050 and 5 oC by 2070 over landareas

Lower increases in temperature in maritime environmentsPrecipitation increases in high latitudes (temperate) but a dryingin mid- latitudes (sub-tropics) over Asia

expectedNo increase in cyclone frequency but intensity could increase by10-20%

Accelerated melting of glaciers 65% of Chinas glaciers will notexist by 2050 with current and projected warming trendsSea level rise modest in IPCC projections (c. 50cm) butestimates dont include significant ice melt

Source: CSIRO, Climate Adaptation Flagship, Australia


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Climate chan e im acts


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Economic impact of climate change

Decline in agricultural productivity

Infrastructure destruction Decline in GDP growth Decline in availability and quality of water

resources Loss of welfare Poverty increase


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Warming of the climate system is unequivocal

- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report


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Climate Change effects...

Climate change is occurring and is due to human activities ** From: IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B.

Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.


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Future Changes in climateFuture Changes in climateFuture Changes in climateFuture Changes in climate

RainfallIncreased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes

Decreased water availability and drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes

Temperature. .

to 2100 (best estimates 1.8 to 5.4)Sea level rise

Sea levels are likely to rise in the range of 22-34 cm between 1990and the 2080s

Extreme eventsLikely that future tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes willbecome more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavyprecipitation


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Temperature Agriculture Water Energy

Potential Impacts

Impacted SectorsPotential sectoral impacts of change

Rainfall

Sea level rise

Transportation Health Infrastructure

Economy Disastermanagement


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Source: WDR 2010


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Source: WDR 2010


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Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase

Higher maximum temperatures; morehot days and heatwaves over nearly allland areas (very likely)

Higher minimum temperatures; fewercold days frost days and cold spells overnearly all land areas (very likely)

- Increased mortality in old people in urbanareas

- Damage to crops

- Heat stress on livestock

Projected changes during the 21stcentury

Examples of impacts

more intense precipitation events overmany areas (very likely)

increased summer drying over mostmid-latitude continental interiors andassociated risk of drought (likely)increase in tropical cyclone peak windintensity, mean and peak precipitationintensities (likely)

- Extended range of pests and diseases

- Loss of some crop/fruit

- Land slides, mudslides, damage toproperty and increased insurance costs

- Reduced rangeland productivity,increased wildfires, decreasedhydropower

- Damage to various ecological andsocioeconomic systems


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More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and

socioeconomic systems are projected


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2020s

Initially increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics

even with warming of a few degrees

2050s

2080s


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Extreme weather events and crop yields

Ecological systems have many interacting non-linearprocesses and are thus subject to abrupt changes andthreshold effects arising from relatively small changes indriving variables, such as climate.

Temperature increase beyond a threshold, which varies by cropand variety, can affect key development stages of some crops

and result in severe losses in crop yields.


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Climate Change effects

Climate Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudesDecreases likely in most subtropical land regions



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Climate chan e im acts on a riculture


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Impact on Global Welfare and Production, 2080(%

change)

Source: Zhai & Zhuang (2009)

Cli h i d i i


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Climate-change impacts on aggregate crop production indeveloping and developed regions for projections of IPCC

scenario A2, without economic adjustment.


Note : H3 = HadCM3; CS = CSIRO; C2 = CGCM2; NC = NCAR-PCM .


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Impacts on Agricultural Production and Trade inSoutheast Countries, 2080(% change)

Adapted from Zhai & Zhuang (2009)


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Changes in rice production potential in Southeast Asia(1990 =1.0)

AIFI (Reference scenario) AIFI (450 ppm scenario)

Under A1FI reference scenario, rice production potential in SEA will

initially increase and, after reaching a turning point in 2050, declinedue to the changing patterns of temperature and precipitation.

However, under climate stabilizing scenario (450ppm) the productionpotential will be maintained.

Source: ADB (2009)

Climate-change induced yield effects by crop and management


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Climate change induced yield effects by crop and managementsystem, % change from yield with 2000 climate to yield with 2050

climate

Adapted from Nelson,et al. (2009)


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Macro-economic Impacts of Climate Change on SoutheastCountries, 2080 (% change)


Projected Change in Mean Surface


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Projected Change in Mean SurfaceAir Temperature for Southeast Asia under A1FI and B1 (with

respect to baseline period of 19611990), C

Source: IPCC (2007)

- A1FI is a high emissions scenario , developed in IPCC (2000), by the end of this century

temperatures could be more than 4C above 19801999 levels, ranging from 2.56C- B1 is a storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same globalpopulation, which peaks mid-century and declines thereafter as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid

change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions inmaterial intensity and introduction of clean- and resource-efficient technologies.


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Rice Yield Change in Viet Nam(comparison with base year, 19801990), %

Source: IPCC (2007)





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Maize Yield Change in Viet Nam (comparison with base year,19801990), %

Source: IPCC (2007)




i l f Cli Ch A i


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Potential Impact of Climate Change on East AsiansAgriculture

Adapted from Stern (2007)

Potential Impact of Climate Change on East Asians


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Potential Impact of Climate Change on East Asian sAgriculture

Southeast Asia, as a tropical region, has endured climate extremesthat include the monsoon, tropical cyclones, El Nio and La Niaevents, extreme variability in rainfall, and very high temperatures.Further climate change is predicted to make these conditions moreacute and challenging with to the physical impact on people, theirlivelihoods, and the environment as a whole.

ma e c ange s a rea y a ec ng ou eas s a an mpac ngmany sectors. It has affected the quantity and quality of waterresources. Extreme weather events such as drought, flooding, andtropical cyclones are increasing in frequency and intensity, andhave contributed to a decline in the production of grains and

industrial crops, fish supply, and forest harvests.


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Potential Impact of Climate Change on East

Asians Agriculture Southeast Asia, as a tropical region, has endured climate extremes

that include the monsoon, tropical cyclones, El Nio and La Niaevents, extreme variability in rainfall, and very high temperatures.Further climate change is predicted to make these conditions moreacute and challenging with to the physical impact on people, theirlivelihoods, and the environment as a whole.

ma e c ange s a rea y a ec ng ou eas s a an mpac ngmany sectors. It has affected the quantity and quality of waterresources. Extreme weather events such as drought, flooding, andtropical cyclones are increasing in frequency and intensity, andhave contributed to a decline in the production of grains and

industrial crops, fish supply, and forest harvests.


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Potential Impact of Climate Change on East

Asians Agriculture As projected by the IPCC (2007), Southeast Asia is likely to

experience increased exposure to extreme events, including fire risk,typhoons and tropical storms, floods, and landslides, as well aswater-borne and vector-borne diseases.

The heat and water stresses brought about by climate change arelikely to disrupt the ecology of mountain and highland systems in thereg on.

Rising sea levels will cause large-scale inundation along theextensive coastlines and will lead to a recession of flat sandybeaches. The ecological stability of mangroves and coral reefs is alsounder threat.


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Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia

Asia-Pacific region will experience the worst effect onrice and wheat yields worldwide, and decreased yields

could threaten the food security of 1.6 billion people inSouth Asia. The crop model indicates that in South Asia, average

y e s n 20 0 or crops w ec ne rom 2000 eve s yabout 50 percent for wheat, 17 percent for rice, andabout 6 percent for maize because of climate change.

In east Asia and the pacific, yields in 2050 for crops will

decline from 2000 levels by up to 20 percent for rice, 13percent for soybean, 16 percent for wheat, and 4percent for maize because of climate change.


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With climate change, average calorie availability in Asiain 2050 is expected to be about 15 percent lower and

cereal consumption is projected to decline by as muchas 24 percent compared to a no climatechange scenario.

n a no-c mate c ange scenar o, t e num er omalnourished children in South Asia would fall from 76to 52 million between 2000 and 2050, and from 24 to 10million in East Asia and the Pacific. Climate change will

erase some of this progress, causing the number ofmalnourished children in 2050 to rise to 59 million inSouth Asia and to 14 million in East Asia and thePacific, increasing the total number of malnourishedchildren in Asia by about 11 million.


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The Asian countries most vulnerable to climate changeare Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, LaoPDR, Myanmar, and Nepal.

Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal are

glacial melting, floods, droughts, and erratic rainfall,among other factors.

Asia is the most disaster-afflicted region in the world,

accounting for about 89 percent of people affected bydisasters worldwide.


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To counteract the effects of climate change on nutrition,

South Asia requires additional annual investments of1.5 billion USD in rural development, and East Asia andthe Pacific require almost 1 million USD more. Over half

irrigation expansion. More than 60 percent of the economically active

population and their dependents2.2 billion people

rely on agriculture for their livelihoods in developingparts of Asia

Source: International Food Policy Research Institute ( 2009)


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Climate impacts on global agriculture

Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid tohigh latitudes for local warmings of 1-3o C, then decrease for

greater warmingCrop productivity is projected to decrease for local warmingsof 1-2o C at lower latitudes, e.g. tropics, which wouldincrease risk of hun er

Agricultural irrigation demand in sub-tropical semi-arid zones(lower precipitation, higher evaporation) likely to be 10% perdegree of warmingNorthward shift of agricultural zones in Asia

Commercial timber productivity is projected to rise modestlyLikely impacts on fisheries but outcomes are uncertain



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Impacts on global agriculture

Source: Tubiello & Fischer (2007)


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Impacts on global agriculture

Source: Tubiello & Fischer (2007)


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Climate related drivers on agriculture

The main four climate related drivers on agriculture are:

1. Elevated carbon dioxide2. Rainfall and associated water resource availability3. Tem erature both direct and indirect throu h

evaporation4. Extreme weather events (wind, flood damage)

These drivers are interact and affect agricultural productivity,

quality, pests and diseases.

Vulnerability of key sectors to the impacts of climate


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Vulnerability of key sectors to the impacts of climate change by sub-regions in Asia

Source: IPCC 2007

impacts of climate change on food, fiber, forestry and


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p g , , yfisheries, by time increment

Source: IPCC 2007

Changes on cereal production under three different


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g pGCM scenarios

. The developed countries could convert negative climate effect to positive with theiradaptation capacity. Developing countries and world total only could be mitigating.

Source: UNEP GRID 2010

Possible climatic change in Peninsular Malaysia byPossible climatic change in Peninsular Malaysia by


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g y yg y y20412041--2050:2050:

Temperature rise 2 0 C More extreme hydrological

conditions Higher maximumrainfall; Lowerminimum rainfall.

Source: NAHRIM (2006) Higher high river flow;Lower low river flow

Water balance Water sufficiencyCrops yields Food securityPlantation Economic lossInfrastructure Repairs &reconstruction

Potential implicationsPotential implications

Climate Change Impacts on Malaysia


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Climate Change Impacts on Malaysia

Increases in temperature effects: It affects the moisture availability through effects on

evaporation; in general evaporation increases by about 5% foreach 1oC increase in main annual temperature. This would besignificant in tropical regions where most crops are generallyconstrained by water availability (NRS, 2001).

The Agriculture and crop yield effects: Increased temperature reduces crop yield and areas prone todrought can become marginal or unsuitable for the cultivationof some crops such as rubber, oil palm and cocoa. Forestshowever, are also vulnerable. As a result of sea level rise the

mangrove forests along coast line could be nullified by a lossof between 15% and 20% (NRS, 2001).

NRS. 2001. National response strategies to climate change, Ministry of Science, Technology and the Environment, Malaysia.

Future projection of climate change on Malaysia:


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selected states

ClimateFactor

Projected Change in Maximum Monthly Value

North WestRegion(West Coast,Perak

North East Region(North east coast,Terengganu,Kelantan)

CentralRegion(Klang,Selan or

SouthernRegion(Johor,Southern

Kedah)

Pahang)

Peninsula)

Rainfall + 6.2 % + 32.8 % + 8.0 % + 2.9 %

Temperature +1.80 0C +1.88 0C +1.38 0C +1.74 0C

Source: NAHRIM, 2006


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Future projection of climate change on Malaysia

Potential yield of Agriculture (rice) in Malaysia: The average potential yield of rice varies is about 10 tons ha-

1in the tropics and over 13 tons ha-1 in the region (Yoshida,1981).

The actual farm yields in Malaysia vary from 3-5 tons ha-1, (i.e.potential yield in Malaysia per ha-1 is 7.2 tons (Singh et al1996 .

The development rates of rice crop were accelerated inresponse to an increase in CO2 concentration from 160 ppm(parts per million) to 900 ppm.

Unexpected temperature effects in Malaysia:

It is evident that the average response to an increase ofpotential yields of about 10kg/ha/ppm CO2 or about 15kg/ha/ppm CO2. However the negative effects occur in unexpectedhigh (>35oC) or low temperature (Penning de Vries, 1993).

F j i f li h M l i


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Future projection of climate change on Malaysia

Unexpected temperature effects in Malaysia:

The rice yield is negatively correlated with high (>35oC)temperature during the reproductive phase (NRS, 2001).

The average temperature in rice-growing areas in Malaysia isabout 26oC. An examination of the current climate chan escenario under different future climate change indicates thattemperature above 26oC declines grain mass of 4.4 % per 1oCrise (Tashiro and Wardlaw, 1989) and grain yield declines asmuch as 9.6 to 10% (Baker and Allen, 1993).

Singh et al. (1996) found on rice production in Malaysia that adecline of rice yield between 4.6 to 6.1% per 1oC under thepresent CO2 level.


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Vulnerabilit to climate chan e

Wh i l bl t li t h g


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Who is vulnerable to climate change

Vulnerability is a function of three key factors:

Exposure to climate change risks; Sensitivity to changes in climate conditions; and Adaptive capacity to cope with potential climate risks or actual

Vulnerability applies to countries, regions, economic sectors,individual etc.Vulnerability indicates an exposure to potential risks without

having adequate capacity to cope with or adapt to changes inthe environment

Vulnerability to climate change impacts


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Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions ofpeople, due to sea level rise and heavy rainfall events,

especially in Small Island States and low-lying deltaic areas.

Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area witha sea level rise of one meter - very difficult to adapt due to lackof adaptive capacity

projected

present

Expected impacts on poor regions


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People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:

120 millions to 1.2 billion in Asia75 to 250 millions in Africa12 to 81 millions in Latin America

Possible yield reduction in agriculture:

50% by 2020 in some African countries30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia30% by 2080 in Latin America

Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa

Developing countries are the most vulnerableto climate change


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to climate change

Impacts are worse - already more flood and droughtprone and a large share of the economy is in climatesensitive sectors

Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial,institutional and technological capacity and access toknowled e

Climate change is likely to impact disproportionatelyupon the poorest countries and the poorest personswithin countries , exacerbating inequities in health statusand access to adequate food, clean water and other

resources. Net market sector effects are expected to be negativein most developing countries

Vulnerability of key sectors to the impacts of climate change by sub regions in Asia


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change by sub-regions in Asia

Source: IPCC 2007

Malaysia: Monthly Poverty Line Income (PLI),Malaysia: Monthly Poverty Line Income (PLI),Incidence of Poverty and Hardcore Poverty 2004Incidence of Poverty and Hardcore Poverty 2004


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Incidence of Poverty and Hardcore Poverty, 2004Incidence of Poverty and Hardcore Poverty, 2004

Source: Ninth Malaysia Plan, 2006

Most Vulnerable States in Malaysia: HardcoreMost Vulnerable States in Malaysia: Hardcore


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Poverty and Climate ChangePoverty and Climate Change

States HouseholdSize

Percentageof HardcorePovertyIncidence

ProjectedTemperatureChange

ProjectedRainfall

Change

Teren anu 5.0 4.4 +1.88 0C+ 32.8 %

Perlis 4.2 1.7 +1.80 0C + 6.2 %

Kelantan 5.2 1.3+1.88 0C

+ 32.8 %

Kedah 4.6 1.3+1.80 0C + 6.2 %

Most Vulnerable peoples are the poor and hardcore poor

Source: NAHRIM, 2006; Ninth Malaysia Plan, 2006

Key vulnerabilities in Asia-Pacific


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Agriculture and food supplyDecrease in crop yields up to 30% in Central &South Asia by 2050

Water managementDecrease of freshwater availability affecting morethan a billion people by 2050

Human healthEndemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoealdisease and exacerbation of abundance / toxicity ofcholera in South Asia

Coastal areas and small islandsSea-level rise, coastal erosion and inundation willcompromise the socio-economic well-being of islandsand heavily-populated megadeltas


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Ada tation and miti ation

Adaptation in the agricultural sector


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p g

What is Adaptation?

The adaptation involves developing ways to protect people andplaces by reducing their vulnerability to climate pattern.

Agricultural adaptation options could be grouped as:a ec no og ca eve opmen s;

(b) government programs;(c) farm production practice; and(d) farm financial management.



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p g

(a) Technological developments Technological adaptations could be developed through research

programme undertaken. These includes:

1. Resource management innovations (e.g. water managementinnovation irri ation farm level resource m t- to address risk of moisture deficiency)

2. Crop development( crop varieties tolerant to changing climaticconditions)3. Weather and climate information systems (e.g. early warning

system, daily and seasonal weather forecasts)



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(b) Government programs

Government programs are institutional responses to the economicrisks associated with climate change and have the potential toinfluence farm-level risk management strategies. These includes:

. insurance programs wrt to climate related loss of crop yield)

2. Resource management programs( water res use & mgtstrategies wrt changing climatic conditions)



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(c) Farm production practice Farm production practices (i.e. diversify crop types and varieties,

land use pattern, irrigation etc.) involve changes in farm operationalpractices, which may be stimulated or informed by governmentprograms or industry initiatives. These includes:

1. Farm production (diversify crop type & varieties to suit climatic

2. Land Use (change location of production to address risks wrtclimate change)

3. Irrigation (to address moisture deficiency wrt climate change)4. Timing of operations (change to address changing

duration/season due to climate change)



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(d) Farm financial management Farm financial adaptations involve decisions with respect to crop

insurance, crop shares and futures, income stabilization programs,household income( invest in crop shares & futures to reduce risksof climate change income loss)

-farm income strategies such as both private and governmentsupported to reduce the risk of climate-related income loss whichmight support and incentive programs greatly influence farmfinancial management decisions (e.g. participate in incomestabilization prog. to reduce risk of income loss due to climaticconditions and variability)

Adaptation and mitigation strategies


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Collection and conservation of germplasm Breeding and development of climate ready varieties

Wide adaptation Multiple resistance to diseases

Altering timing of crops Integrated crop pests management Integration of indigenous knowledge and modern

science

Adaptation and mitigation strategies


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Conservation of traditional livestock breeds Weather index crop insurance schemes

provide a safety net to mitigate risk for subsistencefarmers rovides com ensation to smallholder farmers

climate extremes Availability of reliable climate information Appropriate policies Financial resources Awareness creation and capacity building

Adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector


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Availability of reliable climate information Integration of agricultural models with seasonal

climate prediction models Translate seasonal climate forecasts into usefulinformation

Appropriate policies Financial resources Awareness creation and capacity building

Mitigation


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What is Mitigation?

Mitigation involves attempts or mechanisms to slow the process of global climate change by lowering the level of greenhouse gases inthe atmosphere and such mechanisms that absorb carbon dioxidefrom the air and store it in the soil or in their trunks and roots.

Mitigation, through reducing greenhouse gas emissions, willpr mar y e a resse roug grea er resource e c encyincluding:

1. Improving energy efficiency performance of new and existingbuildings and influencing behavior of occupants

2. Reducing the need to travel and ensuring good accessibility to public

and other sustainable modes of transport3. Promoting land use that acts as carbon sinks4. Encouraging development and use of renewable energy etc

Costs of mitigation in 2030


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Stabilisation levels

(ppm CO2-eq)

Range of GDPreduction

(%)

Reduction ofaverage annual GDP

growth rates(percentage pts)

445 - 535 < 3 < 0.12

Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain to 3%decrease of GDP in 2030

535 - 590 0.2 2.5 < 0.1

590 - 710 -0.6 1.2 < 0.06


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What did we observe from climate change impacts from Asia and Asia Pacific Region, particularly for Malaysia?

Temperature rise and its impacts in the nearest future. Initial indication and the effects of climate change on agriculture.

sector and poverty groups.

Policy challenges in the agriculture on the way towards adequateand smooth adaptation.

Need for partnership between govt. & private sector and NGOs forsuccess. It must be clearly understood that government alonecannot carry out the tasks identified in this document. Success willonly be achieved through the total involvement of the private andnongovernmental sectors.

Stabilization scenarios


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Stabilizationlevel

(ppm CO 2-eq)

Global mean

temp.increase(C)

Year CO 2needs to peak

Change in globalCO 2 emissions in

2050(% of 2000emissions

445 490 2.0 2.4 2000 2015 -85 to -50

490 535 2.4 2.8 2000 2020 -60 to -30

535 590 2.8 3.2 2010 2030 -30 to +5

590 710 3.2 4.0 2020 2060 +10 to +60

Key mitigation instruments, policies & practices


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Appropriate energy infrastructure investments

Research, development and demonstration

Regulations and standards

Taxes and charges

Carbon pricing

Main co-benefits of mitigation


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Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution- Benefits range from 30-50% of estimated mitigation

costs up to a factor of 3 to 4

More employment- Solar PV and wind-ener enerate 5.7 erson- ears

of employment per 1 million US$ investment (overten years); while coal industry generates only 4

Increased energy security

Mitigation actions can result in near-term co-benefits that may offseta substantial fraction of mitigation costs


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Conclusion

Some implications for global foodsecurity


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By the end of the century, hundred of millions of

people could be forced from their native land by risingsea levels, extreme events, floods and famines

y u

pushing poverty further in poor countries

Adaptation is necessary to cope with the impacts ofalready changing climate

Agricultural adaptation to climate change otherwiseproductivity is projected to decline pushing more peopleto food insecurity

Role and limits of adaptation


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Adaptation is necessary to address impacts resulting fromthe warming which is already unavoidable due to pastemissions

Climate chan e re uires forward-lookin investmentand planning responses that go beyond short-termresponses to current climate variability

But adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected

effects of climate change

The need for urgent mitigation


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Delayed emission reductions significantlyconstrain the opportunities to achieve lower

stabilization levels and increase the risk of moresevere climate change impacts

- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report


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Key climate change events

UNFCCC (1992)


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The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legalinstruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve,

in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention,stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at alevel that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with thec ma e sys em. uc a eve s ou e ac eve w n a me- ramesufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, toensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic

development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Bali Roadmap (2007)


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Recognizing that deep cuts in global emissions will berequired the Convention launched a comprehensive

process to enable the full, effective and sustained, ,

beyond 2012, by addressing policy approaches andpositive incentives [].

Copenhagen Accord (2009)


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Commitment to keep the rise in average temperaturebelow 2C

Call for international measurement, reporting and,

$30bn fund for 2010-2012; $100bn by 2020

But no binding agreement and targets foremission reductions

CoP 16 to UNFCCC in Cancun, Mexico (2010)


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Hope to make legally binding agreement to keep the risein average temperature below 2C by all parties to theUNFCCC

Further bindin a reement and tar ets for emissionreductions by the developed world under Kyoto protocolfor the period of beyond 2012

Key elements for an ambitious bindingagreement


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Ensuring global GHG emissions peak by 2015 andconcentrations fall to 350 ppm

Emission-reduction targets of at least 40% below 1990

New global climate finance mechanism

Stronger compliance and enforcement mechanisms


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