Post on 22-May-2015
description
A 21st Century Roadmap: The Future of Infrastructure
Presented by: Garry Golden
Confronting Constraints Fuel Production, ‘Grid’ Dynamics & Limits to ‘Go’
Peak Production of Conventional Oil
Critical Assumption #1: Oil Field Discovery
Critical Assumption #2: Geopolitical Stability
Critical Assumption #3: Non-Conventional Growth
21st Century Challenges
‘The Grid’
Critical Assumptions
Smarter
is Better Bigger
Is Better
Plugging In
Matters
21st Century Challenges
Mobility
Critical Assumptions
Transit
is Better
Human
Behavior Ownership
Matters
21st Century Vision
Enabling Innovation
Incremental Innovation Within an Era
versus
Transformational
Innovation Across New Eras
Incremental & Transformational Changes to Infrastructure
Performance over time S-Curve Shape of ‘Major’ & ‘Minor’ Eras
?
Slow Change ‘Emerging’
Rapid Change
‘Accelerating’
Plateau of Change
‘Mainstreaming’
Disruptions lead to Next Era!!!
Eras of Mobility
Human / Animals
Cars
Boats
Planes /Rockets
What is next?
Rail
•Autonomous Vehicles
•Sub-orbital
2004
Monitoring Slow Change Phase of Development
2007 2010 2015
2020
2025
2050
‘Driver to Captain’ Software Supported
Systems
Eras of Manufacturing
Clay Stone Wood
Plastics
Copper Bronze Iron-Steel
Silicon
What is next?
•Carbon Materials (Nanoscale)
•Biomaterials
1990 2009 2010 2025
2030
2050
Characterization: Passive Nanostructures
Functionalization: Passive Nanostructures
Functionalization: Active Nanostructures
21st Century Nano-Materials for Energy
Nanotubes Nanosheets
(Graphene)
Nanoparticles
Production – Transmission – Storage - Management
– Fuel Storage – Conversion
Social Media
Broadcast Media
One-to-One
Eras of Communication
Machine-to-Machine
‘M2M’
Learning
Systems
Cloud
Computing
Linked
‘Smart’ Data
‘Minor’ Eras of Communication
Pre-’Web’
Broadcast Era Web 1.0
Info Portal
Web 2.0
Social Web
Web 3.0
Services
The ‘Era’ Evolution of Data’s Value Chain
Predictive What might happen?
Prescriptive What should happen?
Descriptive What has happened?
Energy Systems
Transportation & Mobility
Future
Present
$500 M Investment
‘Extracting’ Reserves (Geosciences)
‘Growing’ Energy (Biosciences/Materials Design)
Eras for Energy & Fuels Market
Central Power Plants & Fuel Markets
Eras for Power Generation
Bigger…
Smarter…
Integrated…
Stranded…
Distributed Power Generation Infrastructure-based Natural Gas
Rise (and Return) of Distributed Power Generation
Portable Fuels & Micro Energy
Every Object is a Power Plant?
Rise (and Return) of Distributed Power Generation
Fuel Cells 101
Electrochemical Device (Hydrogen plus Oxygen = Energy)
Magic Material (Membrane Electrode Assembly)
2008 2010 2015
2020
2030
2050
2009
Market Signals of Smart & Distributed Transitions
‘Retail Packets’ Solid Hydrogen /
Liquid Fuels
‘Unplugging’ Beyond the Grid
Power Plants $1 $10
$100 $1000
Possible Future: Consumers start to ‘unplug’ as devices and appliances contain their own embedded power systems?
A More Likely & Favorable Future for Utilities
Distributed Power = Micro Grids
Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net garrygolden@gmail.com 347-463-7412
Questions
&
Discussion
2010 Year One
Infrastructure Implications: Electrification of World’s Auto Fleet
What powers an ‘electric’ car?
A. Batteries B. Hydrogen
Fuel Cells C. Capacitors
‘Plug in’ Battery EVs •Utility Controlled •Fixed Access points •Fleet Vehicles
Integrated Fuel cell EVs •Energy Majors (‘Big Oil’) •Portable ‘Molecule’ Fuels spectrum: NatGas, Biofuels, H2 (Solid, Gas, Liquid)
•Mass Markets
Infrastructure: Electricity-Hydrogen
Why are they going ‘electric’?
A. Changing
Climate
B. Changing
Business
Models
Carbon Footprint
Manufacturing Footprint
Vehicle Electrification
1920s ‘Emerging’
1950-90s
‘Accelerating’
2000s
‘Plateau’
Era of Combustion Engine
Global Auto Industry Imperative: Transform Manufacturing
EV Manufacturing / After Market
Business Case for Electric Age
Automakers
•Lower Manufacturing cost (Wheel based motors) (Drive by Wire)
Driver Experience •Telematics / Driver Support (Software-Services) •Lower Operating Cost
Radicals: Open Source Hardware & Low Volume Builds
‘Mass Assembly’ to ‘Mass Customization’
21st Century ‘Fleets’ for Transit & On-Demand Solutions
Business Model Innovations • Intermodal Solutions
‘Last Mile’ Connections
• Urban On-Demand Point to Point Service New Fleet Vision for Transit
• Smaller Highway Footprint Transforming Capacity
Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net garrygolden@gmail.com 347-463-7412
Questions
&
Discussion
Infrastructure vs Infrastructure Experience
Engineering User Experience
Software for Human Performance ‘Growing with Flow’
Transportation (Transit) Information Services More Social & Transparent
Anonymous Web
1998 Social Web
2008
…. to a more
Infrastructure Experience
Web-oriented Infrastructure Experience
While on the road, only my friends know that I’m a dog!
Civic Culture adapting to
Networked Infrastructure on the go…
Simulated vs ‘Natural Data’
Infrastructure Experience
What We Don’t Know About Infrastructure Use
DIKW Spectrum
Data – Information – Knowledge – Wisdom
How do we enable new behavior based on
data-driven transportation experiences and business models?
Changing Infrastructure Behavior via “Gaming Mechanics”
•Rules & Rewards •Challenges & Goals •Badges & Recognition (Stages of Mastery) •Reputation Management •Teamwork & Strategy
Goal: Advance from Novice to Master Level Skills
User Base •80 million Monthly •30 million Daily
Demographic •Female (35-50 years old)
Teaching Infrastructure Systems via Gaming Mechanics
Changing Behavior & Infrastructure Optimization via Gaming Mechanics
Leaderboards, Points, and Status
Plausible Future: Every infrastructure component & user has a ranking & reputation based on performance?
A Transparent & Accountable ‘Pay as you…’ World?
Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net garrygolden@gmail.com 347-463-7412
Questions
&
Discussion
Data & Business Models for enabling: ‘Driver’ to ‘Captain’
Predictive
Prescriptive
Descriptive
Engineering ‘Build’ with Steel & Concrete
Designing Systems ‘Dynamic Management’
Software/Sensors & Services
Value Capture vs. Value Creation
Eras for Infrastructure & Engineering Industry
20th Century Dynamics of Central Grid
21st Century Dynamics of ‘Smart’ & Distributed
Power Production Networked Energy Systems
The Big Picture Transition
Carbon-based Infrastructure
“Bridge in Backpack”
Building Things! Nanoscale Era of Infrastructure
Nanostructured Materials: • Spectrum of Applications
(e.g. Maintenance/Preservation) • Lifecycle Impact/Testing • Industry Partnerships
(e.g. Reducing Vehicle Weight/Impact) • Roadmap Development
Exploring Transformative Performance Properties • Mechanical • Electrical
• Chemical • Sensing
• Thermal • Dispersion
Other Players:
Arkema, Catalyx Nanotech, Clariant, Hanwha Nanotech Corporation, Honeywell
(Aegis), Hyperion Catalysis International, Nanocyl, Nanoledge, Raymor Industries,
Inc., Rosseter Holdings, Shenzhen Nanotech Port, Showa Denko, SouthWest
NanoTechnologies, Inc., Sun Nanotech.
Primary Nanotube Production Automotive Nano-Integrators
Nanotechnology Resources
Powering Go! Era of Electrification
• Assessing Full Impact • Future-proofing Infrastructure
(e.g. Plug-in & Molecule Fuels) • Industry / Sector-based Partnerships
(e.g. Fleets; Freight ) • Assessing Discontinuities
(e.g. Urban Pod Form Factor) • Leveraging Digitally-enabled Users
(Grow with Flow; ‘Captains’)
The Future of Civicware & Engagement?
Civicware & Policy Simulation via Gaming Mechanics