Design by: Garry Golden Forward Elements, Inc

Tap Your Inner Futurist: A 21st Century Roadmap for Corporate Real Estate

www.garrygolden.net/CoreNet2012

The Importance of Place

Seminar Objectives

• To understand the fundamental applications of Foresight within institutional environments

• To explore emerging trends and issues likely to have an impact on professional development and corporate work environments

Documents: www.garrygolden.net/CoreNet2012

Foresight Skill sets & Mindsets

Drivers of Change Foresight 101

Preparing for Multiple Time Horizons, Multiple Outcomes

Expected future Past Present Plan A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario E

Every day I make an effort to go toward what I don't understand. Yo-Yo Ma

• Visioning • Planning • Goals –

Objectives - Actions • Metrics / Roadmaps • Evaluation • Iterative Planning

• Forecasts • Scenarios

• Horizon Scanning • Issues Analysis • STEEP Categories

Society Technology Economics Environment Politics

Identifying & Monitoring Change

Exploring Implications

Communicating Change

Fundamentals of Foresight

Trends (Continuities)

Plausible Future

Foresight 101: Three Mechanisms of Change

Forecasts

Trend Diffusion Frameworks

References Over Time

Degree of Public Awareness

Framing of Issues & Trends

Emerging Issues & Trends

Mainstreaming of Issues & Trends

Resolution / Plateau of Issues & Trends

Trends (Continuities)

Choices (Discontinuities)

Events (Discontinuities)

Plausible Future

Possible Futures

Preferred Futures

Foresight 101: Three Mechanisms of Change

Forecasts

Scenarios

Visions

Place-based Experiences

Transportation & Energy

Foresight: The Front End of Innovation

The Changing Nature of Work

Entrepreneur •Ability to Anticipate & Adapt to Change (Seek Alternatives)

Manager •Ability to Assess & Measure •Leverage Diversity of People & Tools Leader •Ability to Communicate the Need for Change (Visioning / Storytelling)

De

pth

of

Sub

ject

Exp

ert

ise

Ability to Apply Broadly Across Situations & Disciplines

Become a T-shaped Individuals

What does a future T-shaped professional look like?

LUNCH

In the News

Zappos Founder Tony Hsieh recently announced a $350 million development fund to revitalize areas of downtown Las Vegas to bring music, education, restaurants and cultural amenities near its new headquarters into the old City Hall.

True False

The visionary entrepreneur has leaked plans in a recent Esquire interview on –what the magazine is calling - Galactic Inner Space. The venture will focus on retreat centers aimed at individuals seeking to unplug and turn inward.

True False

The US Air Force is exploring the development of a Social Radar dashboard which would aggregate sensor and sentiment data from Facebook/Twitter, political polls, drones, relief worker reports, retail sales, and infectious disease alerts to identify potential tipping points in social behavior change. Social Radar Dashboard

True False

True False

Fuel cell startup Clear Edge Power has signed an agreement with Lowes to sell its refrigerator sized solid-oxide fuel cell to consumer markets via traditional retail channels in California, Oregon and Washington. The units will sell for $9,999 and provide continual electricity and heat (for water) using natural gas or propane as the fuel. Service contracts will be provided through regional utilities.

A team of Finish Engineers have created a new breed of indoor positioning technology that does not require WiFi or other beacons, but instead provides a unique signal by reference changes in the Earth’s magnetic field.

True False

In Bristol, Connecticut, a thousand people –self identified as Risers - are crowdsourcing a new 17-acre downtown for their city of 61,000 people. The collaborative project is being led by Long Island based developer Renaissance.

True False

True False

After beating two reigning Jeopardy champions in the Spring of 2011, IBM Watson is now gearing up for prime-time at work!

IBM has announced a roadmap to bring Watson to work – focusing on healthcare, financial services and customer service.

The Changing Nature of Work

Behavior Change… • Accountability • Augmentation • Automation

Anonymous Web

1998 Social Web

2008

…. to a more

Now everyone knows I’m working on some personal

growth issues

Era of Institution

Disruptions of Books & Industrial Work

Disruptions of Web & Knowledge Economy

Era of Apprenticeship

Era of Learner

How might work places evolve alongside the learner era?

The Changing Nature of Work:

Data Drives Behavior Change

The ‘consumerization’ of workplaces via personal tools & data streams?

Predictive What might happen..

Prescriptive What should happen..!

Descriptive What happened..

Work Experience Design = Prescriptive Data

What can workplaces learn from Weight Watchers on improving culture & productivity?

‘Gaming Mechanics’ Design Principles: •Rules & Rewards •Quests & Challenges •Badges & Recognition (‘Level up’ Stages of Mastery)

•Reputation Management •Teamwork & Strategy •Continual Feedback

Experience Design = Novice to Expert Level Skills

=

Micro-Experiences

Make the Plant (Vine) ‘Grow’

Our workplaces and dashboards?

What skills and mindset-building Quests might our employees pursue?

How does place play a key role?

How does the workplace become a hub for learning & behavior change ?

What is the Case for Place?

• Gartner estimates that by 2014, some 70% of large companies will use the techniques for at least one business process.

• M2 Research estimates revenue from gamification software, consulting and marketing will reach $938 million by 2014 from less than $100 million this year.

• Place & Continuity of (Workplace) Learning • Place & Behavior Change Metrics • Place & Personal/Team Identity

Place-based Experiences

Transportation & Energy

The Changing Nature of Work

Managing Identities & Location-based Insights

Not Work (School), Not Home

‘Third Place’

Restaurants

Work Place-based Experience Design

Places within Places

Pretty, but where are the behavior metrics?

Visitors wrap themselves in Tyvek at the Pacific Design Center (image: Post Modern Production)

The Art of Place-based Experiences

Transforming the Familiar

Combining Functions

Secret Cinema

Place-based Products & Platforms

AGNES Age Gain Now Empathy System

Places Designed to Solve Problems

Places for Designing & Prototyping

What is the Case for Place? • Designing ‘Third Place’ Elements • Placed-based Performance Metrics • Expanding Emotional Connection to Place • Preparing for Retrofit & Consumerization • Embracing Temporary Places

Place-based Experiences

Transportation & Energy

Foresight: The Front End of Innovation

The Changing Nature of Work

Incremental Innovation Within an Era

versus

Transformational

Innovation Across New Eras

Value Capture vs Creation

Performance over time S-Curve Shape of ‘Major’ & ‘Minor’ Eras

?

Slow Change ‘Emerging’

Rapid Change ‘Accelerating’

Plateau of Change ‘Mainstreaming’

Disruptions lead to Next Era!!!

Eras of Mobility

Human / Animals

Cars

Boats

Planes /Rockets

What is next?

Rail

•Autonomous Vehicles

•Sub-orbital

2004

Emerging Roadmap for Technology Platforms

2007 2010 2015 2020

2030

2050

‘From Driver to Captain’

Traffic Jam Assist

Implications of ‘prime’ real estate?

Workplace attitudes without the pain of commute?

Telecommuters Return?

Eras of Manufacturing

Clay Stone Wood

Plastics

Copper Bronze Iron-Steel

Silicon

What is next? • Carbon Materials

(Nanoscale)

• Biomaterials

1990 2009 2010

2025

2030

2050

Characterization: Passive Nanostructures

Functionalization: Passive Nanostructures

Functionalization: Active Nanostructures

Nano-Materials for Energy: Coatings & Additives

Nanotubes

Nanosheets (Graphene)

Nanoparticles

What nano-enabled products might bring value to real estate?

Era of Broadcast

Era of One-to-One

Era of Social Media

Eras of Media / Communication

Era of Machine to Machine

Buidling Dynamics in Device-to-Device Era

Bundled & Brought to You By..

What is the Case for Place? • Preparing for Transportation Discontinuities • Exploring Functional Nanomaterials

Scanning for Change

Faster Horse vs Automobile

Tellers vs ATM CDs vs Web

Looking for things that your users are not telling you they want or need?

2004

2007

2010

Horizon Scanning

Natural Gas & Distributed Power Generation + Clean Energy as Service

Strengthening Signals

Rise (and Return) of Distributed Power Generation

Possible Game Changers

Waste to Energy & Bio Industrial Appliances

Artificial Photosynthesis

Weak Disruptive Signals

Vision of Portable Fuels & Micro Energy

‘Power Plants’ $1 $10

$100 $1000

‘Unplugging’ Beyond the Grid / Fuel-based Power

First Order Implication

Second Order Implication

Third Order Implication

Blue Arrows: Opportunities

Financial (e.g. Investment, Revenue, Acquisition)

Market (e.g. Expanded Segmentations)

New Internal (e.g. Skills & Capacities )

New Behavior (e.g. More transactions)

Green Arrows: Constraints

Resources (e.g. Lack of; Higher Costs)

Offerings (e.g. Cannibalize existing offerings)

Market Size (e.g. Narrow Customer Segmentation)

Policy Change (e.g. New Regulation is Introduced )

Wild cards (e.g. Product recall)

When filling in implications, be sure to consider:

- Customer - Company - Co-workers

- New Product / Service - Change in Marketplace

Futures Implications Wheel

Possible Future: Portable Power

Consumers start to ‘unplug’ as devices and appliances contain their own embedded power systems!

Market Signal to Watch

Apple tells Users to ‘Unplug’ Switches to fuel-based electronics

2015 China 5 year plan: Cut the cord Intel: Micro Fuel Cells on a chip

Utilities seek mergers; Ban on fuel packets

Energizer Bunny retires!

NatGas ‘packets’ increase earnings

Utility earnings fall under high maintenance costs

Texas Approves Home Construction without Wall Sockets

Walmart aims to be largest distributor of molecule fuels

Shale Gas Revolution Continues

Exxon Buys Reliant/NRG

2018 Time Magazine: Cordless Christmas

2020 - First utility sell portable fuels

I don’t like the future…

Every day I make an effort to go toward what I don't understand. Yo-Yo Ma

Badges

Millennial Parents

Outputs to Outcomes

Learning Management

Systems

Behavior-Change Gaming Mechanics

Prescriptive Data ?

Big Data

Third Place

Aging Boomers

Learning More…

Personal Assistants

Building Organizational Foresight Capabilities

Ad Hoc Activities

‘Evangelists’ & Prototyping

Process & Culture

Tip #1

Embrace Mistakes

Tip #2 Follow Passionate People & Smart Conversations

Tim O'Reilly

Hans Rosling

Nancy Duarte

Neil deGrasse Tyson

Scan Hits per Month Tagged on

Set up a

Signals Team

Share with Staff ‘Best of’ Scan Hits

Measuring Outputs

Tip #3 Bring Structure to Horizon Scanning

How do we enhance our organizational culture by thinking beyond traditional hiring practices? How do we overcome tendency to hire people like us?! What are new positions we might create to future-proof our talent pool?

Tip #4 Hiring People: Not Like Us! & Creating New Positions

Following the success of HP’s Chief Innovation Officer Phil McKinney, generate a weekly ‘Killer Question’ email message or ‘Twitter’ conversation that spurs conversation about the future of corporate real estate.

Tip #5 ‘Killer Questions’ to Brainstorm Ideas

What does a future T-shaped professional look like?

How do we look outside-in at how the world might be changing?

Garry Golden www.garrygolden.net garrygolden@gmail.com (Two R’s) 347-463-7412 www.garrygolden.net/CoreNet2012

Thinking about the Future - Andy Hines & Peter Bishop

The Five Futures Glasses By Pero Micic

The Lords of Strategy By Walter Kiechel