A 21st Century Roadmap: The Future of Infrastructure

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A 21 st Century Roadmap: The Future of Infrastructure Presented by: Garry Golden

description

by Gary Golden

Transcript of A 21st Century Roadmap: The Future of Infrastructure

Page 1: A 21st Century Roadmap: The Future of Infrastructure

A 21st Century Roadmap: The Future of Infrastructure

Presented by: Garry Golden

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Confronting Constraints Fuel Production, ‘Grid’ Dynamics & Limits to ‘Go’

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Peak Production of Conventional Oil

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Critical Assumption #1: Oil Field Discovery

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Critical Assumption #2: Geopolitical Stability

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Critical Assumption #3: Non-Conventional Growth

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21st Century Challenges

‘The Grid’

Critical Assumptions

Smarter

is Better Bigger

Is Better

Plugging In

Matters

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21st Century Challenges

Mobility

Critical Assumptions

Transit

is Better

Human

Behavior Ownership

Matters

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21st Century Vision

Enabling Innovation

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Incremental Innovation Within an Era

versus

Transformational

Innovation Across New Eras

Incremental & Transformational Changes to Infrastructure

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Performance over time S-Curve Shape of ‘Major’ & ‘Minor’ Eras

?

Slow Change ‘Emerging’

Rapid Change

‘Accelerating’

Plateau of Change

‘Mainstreaming’

Disruptions lead to Next Era!!!

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Eras of Mobility

Human / Animals

Cars

Boats

Planes /Rockets

What is next?

Rail

•Autonomous Vehicles

•Sub-orbital

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2004

Monitoring Slow Change Phase of Development

2007 2010 2015

2020

2025

2050

‘Driver to Captain’ Software Supported

Systems

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Eras of Manufacturing

Clay Stone Wood

Plastics

Copper Bronze Iron-Steel

Silicon

What is next?

•Carbon Materials (Nanoscale)

•Biomaterials

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1990 2009 2010 2025

2030

2050

Characterization: Passive Nanostructures

Functionalization: Passive Nanostructures

Functionalization: Active Nanostructures

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21st Century Nano-Materials for Energy

Nanotubes Nanosheets

(Graphene)

Nanoparticles

Production – Transmission – Storage - Management

– Fuel Storage – Conversion

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Social Media

Broadcast Media

One-to-One

Eras of Communication

Machine-to-Machine

‘M2M’

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Learning

Systems

Cloud

Computing

Linked

‘Smart’ Data

‘Minor’ Eras of Communication

Pre-’Web’

Broadcast Era Web 1.0

Info Portal

Web 2.0

Social Web

Web 3.0

Services

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The ‘Era’ Evolution of Data’s Value Chain

Predictive What might happen?

Prescriptive What should happen?

Descriptive What has happened?

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Energy Systems

Transportation & Mobility

Future

Present

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$500 M Investment

‘Extracting’ Reserves (Geosciences)

‘Growing’ Energy (Biosciences/Materials Design)

Eras for Energy & Fuels Market

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Central Power Plants & Fuel Markets

Eras for Power Generation

Bigger…

Smarter…

Integrated…

Stranded…

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Distributed Power Generation Infrastructure-based Natural Gas

Rise (and Return) of Distributed Power Generation

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Portable Fuels & Micro Energy

Every Object is a Power Plant?

Rise (and Return) of Distributed Power Generation

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Fuel Cells 101

Electrochemical Device (Hydrogen plus Oxygen = Energy)

Magic Material (Membrane Electrode Assembly)

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2008 2010 2015

2020

2030

2050

2009

Market Signals of Smart & Distributed Transitions

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‘Retail Packets’ Solid Hydrogen /

Liquid Fuels

‘Unplugging’ Beyond the Grid

Power Plants $1 $10

$100 $1000

Possible Future: Consumers start to ‘unplug’ as devices and appliances contain their own embedded power systems?

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A More Likely & Favorable Future for Utilities

Distributed Power = Micro Grids

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Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net [email protected] 347-463-7412

Questions

&

Discussion

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2010 Year One

Infrastructure Implications: Electrification of World’s Auto Fleet

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What powers an ‘electric’ car?

A. Batteries B. Hydrogen

Fuel Cells C. Capacitors

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‘Plug in’ Battery EVs •Utility Controlled •Fixed Access points •Fleet Vehicles

Integrated Fuel cell EVs •Energy Majors (‘Big Oil’) •Portable ‘Molecule’ Fuels spectrum: NatGas, Biofuels, H2 (Solid, Gas, Liquid)

•Mass Markets

Infrastructure: Electricity-Hydrogen

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Why are they going ‘electric’?

A. Changing

Climate

B. Changing

Business

Models

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Carbon Footprint

Manufacturing Footprint

Vehicle Electrification

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1920s ‘Emerging’

1950-90s

‘Accelerating’

2000s

‘Plateau’

Era of Combustion Engine

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Global Auto Industry Imperative: Transform Manufacturing

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EV Manufacturing / After Market

Business Case for Electric Age

Automakers

•Lower Manufacturing cost (Wheel based motors) (Drive by Wire)

Driver Experience •Telematics / Driver Support (Software-Services) •Lower Operating Cost

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Radicals: Open Source Hardware & Low Volume Builds

‘Mass Assembly’ to ‘Mass Customization’

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21st Century ‘Fleets’ for Transit & On-Demand Solutions

Business Model Innovations • Intermodal Solutions

‘Last Mile’ Connections

• Urban On-Demand Point to Point Service New Fleet Vision for Transit

• Smaller Highway Footprint Transforming Capacity

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Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net [email protected] 347-463-7412

Questions

&

Discussion

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Infrastructure vs Infrastructure Experience

Engineering User Experience

Software for Human Performance ‘Growing with Flow’

Transportation (Transit) Information Services More Social & Transparent

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Anonymous Web

1998 Social Web

2008

…. to a more

Infrastructure Experience

Web-oriented Infrastructure Experience

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While on the road, only my friends know that I’m a dog!

Civic Culture adapting to

Networked Infrastructure on the go…

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Simulated vs ‘Natural Data’

Infrastructure Experience

What We Don’t Know About Infrastructure Use

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DIKW Spectrum

Data – Information – Knowledge – Wisdom

How do we enable new behavior based on

data-driven transportation experiences and business models?

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Changing Infrastructure Behavior via “Gaming Mechanics”

•Rules & Rewards •Challenges & Goals •Badges & Recognition (Stages of Mastery) •Reputation Management •Teamwork & Strategy

Goal: Advance from Novice to Master Level Skills

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User Base •80 million Monthly •30 million Daily

Demographic •Female (35-50 years old)

Teaching Infrastructure Systems via Gaming Mechanics

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Changing Behavior & Infrastructure Optimization via Gaming Mechanics

Leaderboards, Points, and Status

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Plausible Future: Every infrastructure component & user has a ranking & reputation based on performance?

A Transparent & Accountable ‘Pay as you…’ World?

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Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net [email protected] 347-463-7412

Questions

&

Discussion

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Data & Business Models for enabling: ‘Driver’ to ‘Captain’

Predictive

Prescriptive

Descriptive

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Engineering ‘Build’ with Steel & Concrete

Designing Systems ‘Dynamic Management’

Software/Sensors & Services

Value Capture vs. Value Creation

Eras for Infrastructure & Engineering Industry

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20th Century Dynamics of Central Grid

21st Century Dynamics of ‘Smart’ & Distributed

Power Production Networked Energy Systems

The Big Picture Transition

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Carbon-based Infrastructure

“Bridge in Backpack”

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Building Things! Nanoscale Era of Infrastructure

Nanostructured Materials: • Spectrum of Applications

(e.g. Maintenance/Preservation) • Lifecycle Impact/Testing • Industry Partnerships

(e.g. Reducing Vehicle Weight/Impact) • Roadmap Development

Exploring Transformative Performance Properties • Mechanical • Electrical

• Chemical • Sensing

• Thermal • Dispersion

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Other Players:

Arkema, Catalyx Nanotech, Clariant, Hanwha Nanotech Corporation, Honeywell

(Aegis), Hyperion Catalysis International, Nanocyl, Nanoledge, Raymor Industries,

Inc., Rosseter Holdings, Shenzhen Nanotech Port, Showa Denko, SouthWest

NanoTechnologies, Inc., Sun Nanotech.

Primary Nanotube Production Automotive Nano-Integrators

Nanotechnology Resources

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Powering Go! Era of Electrification

• Assessing Full Impact • Future-proofing Infrastructure

(e.g. Plug-in & Molecule Fuels) • Industry / Sector-based Partnerships

(e.g. Fleets; Freight ) • Assessing Discontinuities

(e.g. Urban Pod Form Factor) • Leveraging Digitally-enabled Users

(Grow with Flow; ‘Captains’)

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The Future of Civicware & Engagement?

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Civicware & Policy Simulation via Gaming Mechanics

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