Post on 06-Apr-2018
8/2/2019 634407118525498861 Mega Crisis - Futurist File Size Very Reduced
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By William E. Halal and Michael Marien
Global MegaCrisisFour Scenarios, Two Perspectives
Two futurists map out the convergence of multiple global challenges,offering divergent viewpoints—one optimistic and one pessimistic—
on the likelihood of successfully meeting these challenges and turning
them into global progress.
26 THE FUTURIST 0D\-XQH
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8/2/2019 634407118525498861 Mega Crisis - Futurist File Size Very Reduced
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Some Trends Driving the MegaCrisis
Climate Change, No Matter
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The Global MegaCrisis: What Is ItAnd What Does It Look Like?
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THE FUTURIST 0D\-XQH27
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Debating the Global MegaCrisis
And Its Outcomes
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Scenario 1: Decline to Disaster
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“Suddenly, many of the concerns we were forewarned
of over recent decades are at hand.”
28 THE FUTURIST 0D\-XQH
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Scenario 4: Rise to Maturity
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Early Survey Results
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Table 1. Severity of the
Potential ThreatSeverity Respondents (%)
Catastrophic (De-
cline to Disaster)
Could be the end
of civilization for
many if not all
22%
Severe (Muddling
Down) Major de-
clines in central
aspects of life
60%
Bad (Muddling
Up) Serious chal-lenges likely to be
met in time
13%
Overblown (Rise
to Maturity) Prob-
lems greatly exag-
gerated; technol-
ogy and the market
can handle them
4%
Don’t Know / Too
murky and can’t
even make a guess
2%
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Scenario 2: Muddling Down
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Scenario 3: Muddling Up
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Table 2. Probability ofFour Scenarios
Scenario Probability (%)
Decline to Disas-
ter World fails to
react, resulting inaccelerated climate
change, widespread
energy and water
shortages, economic
depression, conflict,
etc.
25%
Muddling Down
World reacts, par-
tially, but problems
continue to outdis-
tance policies and
technologies. Eco-
logical damage con-
tinues, as does in-
creased poverty, in-
equality, and
conflict.
35%
Muddling Up
World reacts out of
need. Policies and
technologies help
make headway on
problems. Wide-
spread disaster
avoided, but many
problems remain.
28%
Rise to Maturity
World transitions to
a humane and
responsible global
order.
12%
THE FUTURIST 0D\-XQH29
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Halal’s Analysis:The World Is Entering an
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Table 3. Mean Arrival Dates
Scenario Year
Decline to Disaster 2029Muddling Down 2023
Muddling Up 2027
Rise to Maturity 2033
Recently Published Books Other perspectives on the Global MegaCrisis
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Defining and Anticipating the
Global MegaCrisis
How to Define the Global MegaCrisis
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How to Understand the Global MegaCrisis
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What Might Happen When the Global MegaCrisis
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Your Turn
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Halal Marien
About the Authors
William E. Halal is professor emeritus at
George Washington University and presi-
dent of TechCast LLC (www.TechCast.org).
Portions of this article are adapted from his
forthcoming book, Through the MegaCrisis:
The Technology Revolution to a World of
Knowledge, Intelligence, and Global Con-
sciousness.
Michael Marien is the founder and former
editor of Future Survey, published by WFS
for 30 years, and is now the director of
GlobalForesightBooks.org.
Despite their differences, Halal and
Marien share the common bond of having
studied for advanced degrees at the Univer-
sity of California, Berkeley.
The authors gratefully acknowledge con-
tributions to this analysis by Jerome C.
Glenn, director of the Millennium Project,
and Mike MacCracken, chief scientist at the
Climate Institute. Readers are invited to
take the MegaCrisis Survey at www.Tech-
Cast.org. E-mail comments to halal@gwu
.edu and mmarien@twcny.rr.com.
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“We may still see some shift to enlightened views, but,
more likely than not, too little too late.” (Marien)
THE FUTURIST 0D\-XQH33