634407118525498861 Mega Crisis - Futurist File Size Very Reduced

8/2/2019 634407118525498861 Mega Crisis - Futurist File Size Very Reduced

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By William E. Halal and Michael Marien

Global MegaCrisisFour Scenarios, Two Perspectives

Two futurists map out the convergence of multiple global challenges,offering divergent viewpoints—one optimistic and one pessimistic—

on the likelihood of successfully meeting these challenges and turning

them into global progress.

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Some Trends Driving the MegaCrisis

Climate Change, No Matter

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The Global MegaCrisis: What Is ItAnd What Does It Look Like?

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BAMLOU / ISTOCKPHOTO

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Debating the Global MegaCrisis

And Its Outcomes

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Scenario 1: Decline to Disaster

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&RPPXQLVPµCyberwarfare/Cyberterrorism.

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DQG6RYLHW8QLRQXVHGWRDYRLGQXFOHDU$UPDJHGGRQWeapons of Mass Destruction.

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“Suddenly, many of the concerns we were forewarned

of over recent decades are at hand.”




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Scenario 4: Rise to Maturity

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Early Survey Results

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Table 1. Severity of the

Potential ThreatSeverity Respondents (%)

Catastrophic (De-

cline to Disaster)

Could be the end

of civilization for

many if not all

22%

Severe (Muddling

Down) Major de-

clines in central

aspects of life

60%

Bad (Muddling

Up) Serious chal-lenges likely to be

met in time

13%

Overblown (Rise

to Maturity) Prob-

lems greatly exag-

gerated; technol-

ogy and the market

can handle them

4%

Don’t Know / Too

murky and can’t

even make a guess

2%

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Scenario 2: Muddling Down

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Scenario 3: Muddling Up

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Table 2. Probability ofFour Scenarios

Scenario Probability (%)

Decline to Disas-

ter World fails to

react, resulting inaccelerated climate

change, widespread

energy and water

shortages, economic

depression, conflict,

etc.

25%

Muddling Down

World reacts, par-

tially, but problems

continue to outdis-

tance policies and

technologies. Eco-

logical damage con-

tinues, as does in-

creased poverty, in-

equality, and

conflict.

35%

Muddling Up

World reacts out of

need. Policies and

technologies help

make headway on

problems. Wide-

spread disaster

avoided, but many

problems remain.

28%

Rise to Maturity

World transitions to

a humane and

responsible global

order.

12%




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Halal’s Analysis:The World Is Entering an

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Table 3. Mean Arrival Dates

Scenario Year

Decline to Disaster 2029Muddling Down 2023

Muddling Up 2027

Rise to Maturity 2033

Recently Published Books Other perspectives on the Global MegaCrisis

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Defining and Anticipating the

Global MegaCrisis

How to Define the Global MegaCrisis

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What Might Happen When the Global MegaCrisis

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Your Turn

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Halal Marien

About the Authors

William E. Halal is professor emeritus at

George Washington University and presi-

dent of TechCast LLC (www.TechCast.org).

Portions of this article are adapted from his

forthcoming book, Through the MegaCrisis:

The Technology Revolution to a World of

Knowledge, Intelligence, and Global Con-

sciousness.

Michael Marien is the founder and former

editor of Future Survey, published by WFS

for 30 years, and is now the director of

GlobalForesightBooks.org.

Despite their differences, Halal and

Marien share the common bond of having

studied for advanced degrees at the Univer-

sity of California, Berkeley.

The authors gratefully acknowledge con-

tributions to this analysis by Jerome C.

Glenn, director of the Millennium Project,

and Mike MacCracken, chief scientist at the

Climate Institute. Readers are invited to

take the MegaCrisis Survey at www.Tech-

Cast.org. E-mail comments to halal@gwu

.edu and [email protected].

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Marien’s Analysis:Infoglut, Ignorance, Indecision,and Inadequacy

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“We may still see some shift to enlightened views, but,

more likely than not, too little too late.” (Marien)


634407118525498861 Mega Crisis - Futurist File Size Very Reduced

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