Conceptual Redesign of The Futurist

8/6/2019 Conceptual Redesign of The Futurist

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THE FUTURISTForecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future | www.ws.org | MayJune 2011

Timelineto 2040The breakthroughs youll

see in 2010, 2020, 2030,

and beyond.


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THE FUTURISTForecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future | www.ws.org | JulyAugust 2011

Solar Powerfrom the MoonAn unexpected source of renewable energy


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THE FUTURISTForecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future | www.ws.org | MarchApril 2011

A Brighter FuturePredictions of what lies ahead for Americas cities


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CONTENTSDEPATMENTS

TechKnow:NewsinBrie

HIGHLIGHTS:

Eye Exams via

Smart Phones

The Brccoli Plan

Word Buzz: Complexipacity

Cancer Mortality Rates are

Declining

9 Feedback

2 Consultantsand Services

OOS7 BookReviews:

NewandNoteworthy

0 ImagininganAmericanUtopiaARTHUR B. SHOSTAK

In a post-Bush United States,

our successive administrations

work to improve democracy and

the quality o lie in sociologist

Herbert J. Gans utopian

narrative

1 TooFreeorOurOwnGood?

RICK DOCKSAI reviews

Free Market Madness: WhyHuman Nature is at Odds with

Economicsand Why it Matters

by Peter A. Ubel

FEATUES18 ARealisticEnergyStrategy

TSVI BISK

Energy policy must be realistic or it wont work, but

clean and sustainable energy is more realistic than you

may think

39 EmergingTechnologyandtheGlobal Cr isiso Maturity

WILLIAM E. HALAL

As technological development surges, the ability o

institutions to handle change is stied by outmoded

social systems.

48 SavingtheEnvironment:Five CreativeApproaches

CLIFTON ANDERSON

The actions o fve individuals oer insights into howbest to move toward a more sustainable uture.

55 WhatIHaveLearnedEDWARD CORNISH

The editor o THE FUTURIST got a real education

working or the World Future Society

68 VISIONS:ImagineersinSearcho theFuture

GARY DEHRER

In 1955, Walt Disney Imagineers achieved virtual reality

with Disneyland. Six Imagineering principles explain how

they did it.

TENDS6 Economics

Oil Exports May Soon Dry Up

10 EnvironmentNew Greenhouse Gas Threat

12 Technology

Google Searches Its Future

14 Society

Racial Prejudice Declines in Britain

16 Demography

Hooked Up or Just Hooked?


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THE FUTURIST | Ma rch-April 2011 | www.wfs.orgTHE FUTURIST | March-April 2011 | www.wfs.org2

Artifcial ExperimenterSoftware that can take over the routine aspects of experimentation could

help reduce its costs.

An artificial experimenter developed at Britains University of South-

ampton autonomously analyzes a projects data, builds hypotheses, and

chooses the experiments to perform, according to one of the developers,

PhD student Chris Lovell of the School of Electronics and Computer Science.

The program will also help detect anomalies in error-prone areas such as

biological experimentation.

The next step is to join the AI software with automated platformslabs on

a chipto perform the experiments requested by the artificial experimenter,

using fewer resources in the process.

Source:UniversityoSouthampton,SchooloElectronicsandComputerScience,

www.ecs.soton.ac.uk.

TECH NOWNEWSINBRIEF


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10%the increase of globalplantings of geneticallymodified crops in 2010 compared to the

prior year, according to a study which has

been released by an organization that

promotes crop biotechnology.

Source:www.bangkokpost.com

23% of LinkedIn contacts arealso Facebook friends.In addition, 63 percent of the Facebook

profiles analyzed in the study had at least

one employer listed, further showing the

lines are more than blurred between pro-

fessional and personal networking. The

survey had a large sample size: 5,000 My-

WebCareer users were profiled and their

online presences analyzed.

Source:surveyconductedbyMyWebCareer

45% of college undergrads(out of 2300 surveyed)show no significant improvement in the

key measures of critical thinking, complex

reasoning and writing.

Not much is asked of students, either.

Half did not take a single course requir-

ing 20 pages of writing during their prior

semester, and one-third did not take a

single course requiring even 40 pages ofreading per week.Source:AssociatedPress

Eye Exams viaSmart Phones

Need an eye exam? Theres an app for that. A $2

smart-phone application could tell you in minutes

what prescription eyeglasses you need. Developed by

the MIT Media Labs Camera Culture research group,

the NETRA (Near-Eye Tool for Refractive Assessment)combines software with a small, lightweight plastic

viewfinder that clips onto your smart phone.

Within minutes, NETRA can diagnose whether

someone is nearsighted or farsighted, or suffers

from astigmatism or the vision loss associated with

aging. The researchers claim that NETRA is safe, fast,

accurate, and easy to use.

Currently being field-tested, the device is intended

primarily for use in poorer communities, such as

those in the developing world, that lack access to

proper eye care. While eyeglasses themselves can

be inexpensive, the testing equipment up until now

has been fairly cost-prohibitive, especially for those

in underdeveloped areas.

Source:MITMediaLab,www.media.mit.edu/press/netra

Catching up with the StarsThe Hubble Space Telescope has enormously acceler-

ated astronomers ability to detect star movement,

from 50 years with ground-based telescopes to just

a few years.

It is Hubbles razor-sharp visual acuity that

enables the measurement of the stars motion, so

predicting stars future movement has likewise been

speeded up: Astronomers at the Space Telescope Sci-

ence Institute in Baltimore have collected Hubbles

images from 2002 to 2006 to simulate stars projected

migration over the next 10,000 years.

Source:HubbleSite,http://hubblesite.org

TECH NOWNEWSINBRIEF

TheBroccoli PlanNutritionists tell us that broc-

coli is one of the healthiest

foods for us, but this super

veggie must be shipped from

far away to reach markets

where it isnt so easily grown.

For instance, 90% of broc-

coli sold on the U.S. Eastern

Seaboard is shipped from

California and Mexicowith

less than desirable environ-

mental impacts.

To solve thi s problem ,

researchers led by Cornell

University horticulturalist

Thomas Bjorkman are devel-

oping new strains of broccoli

that can tolerate the more-hu-

mid East Coast climate. Once

the right varieties have been

developed, the project will

also train local growers and

marketers, organizing them

into production networks.

With USDA support, the

team aims to develop a $100

million broccoli industry on

the East Coast over the next

10 years.

Source:CornellUniversity,www.

cornell.edu

TRENDS INNOVATIONSTHIS MONTH

1Bristol-based engineers havebuilt a lightweight bicycle from anew form of nylon as strong as steel , a

substance they hope could revolutionise

British manufacturing.

Source:www.bbc.co.uk

2At the TED 2011 conference thisweek, Google has been giving raredemos of its self-driving cars. TED at-

tendees have even been allowed to travel

inside , on a closed course. The car is a

project of Google, which has been working

in secret but in plain view on vehicles that

can drive themselves, using artificial-

intelligence software that can mimic the

decisions made by a human driver.

Source:tech.slashdot.org

3HONG KONG residents can enjoyastoundingly fast broadband at anastoundingly low price. It became avail-

able last year, when a scrappy company

called Hong Kong Broadband Network

introduced a new option for its fiber-

to-the-home service: a speed of 1,000

megabits a secondknown as a gigfor

less than $26 a month.Source:www.nytimes.com

Making Personal Data VanisDenizens of online social-network

sites have long been warned ab

leaving unflattering information ab

themselves where it could later

found and used against them by fut

employers, loved ones, or voters. Ev

deleting posts does not eradicate th

from Internet archives. Now, compu

scientists at the University of Washinghave put expiration dates on data: Af

a set time, e-mails, chat messages, a

Facebook postings would self-destru

The prototype system, called Vani

tags a time limit to any text upload

through a Web browser. The system

crypts messages with a secret key t

is divided and spread among rand

computers in a file-sharing network

turnover occurs in the network, th

leaving the netowrk unknowingly t

parts of the key with them, leaving

message undecipherable.

Source:UniversityoWashington,

www.u.washington.edu

WordBuzz: ComplexipacityHow well can you or your organizat

handle complexity? Coined in 2008

designer Tom Snyder, brother of futu

David Pearce Snyder, complexipac

refers to the capacity to assimilate co

plex ideas, systems, problems, situatiointeractions, or relationships.

Source:DavidPearceSnyder,SnyderFam

Enterprise,www.the-uturist.com.Down

Snyderspresentationoncomplexipacit

atwww.ws.org/w09Complexipacity.pd

PortableFood TesterNew sensing technologies developed by

researchers at Germanys Fraunhofer

Institute may enable food suppliers to

determine the right time for bringing

produce to market for purchase by con-sumers. The system, based on metal-oxide

sensors, checks the emission of volatile

gases that reveal ripeness, over-ripeness,

or rottenness of produce. The goal is to

make more-portable devices that have the

same levels of sensitivity as equipment

used in food laboratories, reducing waste

if fresh produce is purchased before (or

after) its time.

Source:FraunhoerGesellschat,

www.raunhoer.de

Cancer Mortalityates Are DecliningIn the United States the youngest age

groups have experienced the steepest

decline in cancer mortality, at 25.9% per

decade, according tot he researchers. And

even the oldest groups have experienced

a 6.8% per decade decline, thanks t o im-

proved screening and treatment.Source:VanAndelInstitute,www.vai.org


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TECH NOWNEWSINBRIEF

Calorie estrictionand Healthy AgingAntiaging researchers have long recognized the role of calorie restriction

on increasing life spans, but such diets have negative side effects, such as

reduced fertility.

The key to overcoming this problem may be to reduce consumption of

specific nutrients rather than simply consuming fewer calories, according

to researchers at University College London Institute of Healthy Ageing and

Max Planck Institute the Institute for Biology of Ageing.

In their studies with female fruit flies, the scientists found that varying

the types and amounts amino acids could affect longevity and fertility,

while altering vitamins and lipids had little impact. One particular amino

acid, methionine, was found to be crucial to increasing life span without

decreasing fertility.

Since there are many similarities between fruit flies and humans on a

genetic level, the scientists are optimistic that finding the right balance

of amino acid consumption could extend life spans without compromising

fertility or sacrificing our favorite foods.

Source:MaxPlanckSociety,www.mpg.de/english.Amino-AcidImbalance

ExplainsExtensionoLiespanbyDietaryRestrictioninDrosophilabyRichardC.

Grandison,MathewD.W.Piper,andLindaPartridge,Nature(December3,2009),

www.nature.com

U.S. Companies Optimistic about ChinaAn overwhelming majority (90%) of American companies doing business in China are

optimistic or slightly optimistic about the five-year outlook for Chinas growing

domestic market, according to the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai.

What makes China a bright spot on an otherwise bleak business landscape is, simply,

its population of consumers. Companies in China that are focused on producing goods

for the Chinese market, rather than exporting Chinese goods back to the U.S. were less

likely to be impacted by the global downturn.

Of the American companies surveyed, 74% ranked China as a top-three investment

priority, and nearly 20% ranked it number one, AmCham reports.Source:TheAmericanChamberoCommerceinShanghai,www.amcham-shanghai.org/

AmchamPortal

ecord Number of Doctorate DegreesThe number of doctorate degrees awarded in the United States has risen for six straight

years, reaching a record 48,802 in 2008, according to the National Science Foundations

Survey of Earned Doctorates. One-third of these degrees (33.1%) went to temporary visa

holders, up from 23.3% in 1998.

Science and engineering doctorates have increased by more than 20% in the past

decade and by 3.2% from 2007 to 2008. Computer science had the largest rate of increase

(7.9% in 20072008 and nearly double in the past decade).

In contrast, doctorates in non-science and engineering fields have declined, particu-

larly the humanities (down 7.1%). One exception is education, which awarded 2.1% more

doctorates in 2008 than in 2007.

Source:NationalScienceFoundation,www.ns.gov

Carbon Dioxides Long-Term Impacts on PlantsRising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide is both good news and bad news for the

plants of the world, according to researchers with the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

For instance, both genetically modified soybeans and the weeds that theyve been

modified to resist could be stimulated by increased COO2 levels. Some species, such as

the longleaf pine, would also get a boost in water-use efficiency, thus becoming more

tolerant of droughts. But the pines fitness may threaten the growth and survival of

the plants lying below their canopy, as well as the insects and microbes on the forest

floor, warn the researchers. Moreover, fast-growing invasive weeds could become even

more troublesome as CO2 levels increase to a predicted 550 parts per million by 2050.

Source:U.S.DepartmentoAgriculture,AgriculturalResearchService,www.ars.usda.gov

Personalities PredictSuccessful Medical StudentsConscientiousness will stand a student in good stead

at the beginning of medical school, while extraverts

are at a disadvantage, according to a study of Belgian

medical students, led by University of Minnesota

psychology professor Deniz Ones.

However, extraverts (assertive and warm) and

those scoring high on agreeableness and altruismtend to excel later as they go through the seven-year

curriculum, facing the challenges of interacting with

patients and performing as interns.

Personality traits predict the acquisition of

knowledge, persistence on tasks, and performance

in patient interactions, and thus should also be con-

sidered in medical school admissions, says Ones. This

process could thus help schools identify individuals

most likely to thrive not only as students, but also

as doctors.

Source:UniversityoMinnesota,www.umn.edu

An Index for Climate ChangeData sets on four key climate indicators are being

used to create the worlds first climate-change index,

so that the complexity of the planets systems can be

distilled to a number that everyone can follow, like

the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The International Geosphere-Biosphere Pro-

gramme, a research network of 10,000 scientists, is

focusing on sea levels, global temperature, Arctic sea

ice, and atmospheric CO2 levels.The index is intended to provide an annual snap-

shot of the planets systems, giving policy makers

and other nonscientists an accessible overview of

the complex interactions of these variables.

Source:InternationalGeosphere-BiosphereProgramme,

www.igbp.net

etirementPlanning TrendsDecisions about retirement incre

ingly include such issues as manag

health-care costs, developing an incom

withdrawal strategy, and evenfor

recently retired;unretiring. Ab

40% of financial-planning clients w

are in or near retirement are asking help in making lifestyle changes, repo

the Financial Planning Association. F

of outliving ones income has beco

a growing concern, especially as t

forces of a weak economy and soar

health-care costs converge. Demand

personalized approaches to plann

has grown: Nearly half of the plann

surveyed reported gaining between f

and 10 new retirement income client

the last year.

Source:FinancialPlanningAssociation,w

panet.org


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Solar Powerfrom the Moon

A Japanese company is pitching an alternative energy plan

thats out of this worldand potentially the largest public

infrastructure project in human history.

By Patrick Tucker

An artists rendering o how this

new technology might work


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The year is 2050 and its morning on the Moon. The Sun is ris-

ing over a landscape that is bleak and featureless with one

exception: a wide belt of photovoltaic panels that cuts across

the ash-gray lunar surface like a straight river. Not a single

astronaut is in sight, but a troop of robots is busily making

repairs to the installation where tune-ups are needed. Beneath

the panels, superconducting cables are ferrying the Suns

power to transmission centers. The power will be beamed to

a receiving station near the Earths equator, and from there,

it will be distributed to energy-hungry cities and towns across

the globe where it will keep the lights on in offices, hospitals,

and schools.

Meet the LUNA RING, the brainchild of Tetsuji Yoshida and

his colleagues at CSP, the research arm of Shimizu, one of the

largest construction firms in Japan. The LUNA RING is an

idea that could only come from the land of the rising sun, a

country boasting many of the worlds best-known t echnology

companies, like Sony, Hitachi, and Panasonic, but also saddled

with a shortage of natural resources.

The LUNA RING speaks to a future global need thats keenly

felt in the present in Japan, a nation now also coping with

the impacts of the devastating March 2011 earthquake on its

nuclear power capacity.

My very optimistic forecast is 25 years, Yoshida told me

when I visited the company headquarters in Tokyo last No-

vember. He explained that this is the time required before they

could even begin the lunar-surface activity, assuming that

Japan, the United States, or some other investor was actually

willing to fund the project. The scale is so huge; I dont know

how long it would take to construct. We may have to adjust the

plan and the scale, he says.

If the most exciting part of Yoshidas job is coming up with

bold engineering concepts, the most difficult part, except for

the math, is keeping peoples expectations realistic. Shimizus

company president, Yoichi Miyamoto, was hoping to pitch the

project to potential investors with a start date on the Moon of

around 2035. Yoshida sees this as ambitious, to say the least.

The technical, practical, and monetary obstacles to building

a solar laser power station on the Moon are unprecedented.

But the LUNA RING is buildable. Photovoltaic panels, re-

motely guided robots, and microwave transmission and lasers

are already proven technologies. The LUNA RING is simply

raising the proverbial bar on the current state of innovation

satellite increases. These wouldnt be

simple Sputniks, either, but rather floating

power stations a kilometer or so in diameterfar

larger and more complex than any communications satellites

in space today.

The ongoing maintenance costs of the network would thus be

enormous. Mankins testified that the cost to build the system

would be more than $250 billion in present-day dollars. The pro-

gram concluded in 1979, leaving many questions unanswered.

Then, between 1980 and 1981, the U.S. energy crisis ended, and

interest in space-based solar power hit a wall.

Fifteen years later, NASA initiated a three-year Fresh Look

Study. A brief Exploratory Research and Technology Program

followed. The agency found that many of the technical obstacles

it first faced decades ago no longer seemed so insurmountable.

Photovoltaic arrays in the 1970s could convert into power roughly

10% of the solar energy that struck them. By 1995, they were far

more efficient and much lighter. New ideas were on the table,

such as satellites that used inflatable trusses rather than metal

to decrease object weight.

Mankins himself ditched the dispersed satellite network

scheme and came up with a new idea for designing, building,

and launching satellites. In his 1995 plan, many thousands of

smaller, identical solar-gathering modules come together to form

a much larger whole, the same way that thousands of similar ants

come together to form colonies and millions of quite similar Web

sites and Web servers form the Interneta super-organism,

Mankins calls it. The logistics of building and launching a type A

mini-satellite 9,000 times (then type B, then type C) is less daunt-

ing than figuring out how to launch a few extremely complex,

independently functioning machines. Mankins calls this realiza-

tion his eureka moment. It led me for the first time to believe

that space-based solar power was technically possible, he says.

Despite this encouraging progress, the question remained:

How do you conduct tens of thousands of satellite launches, keep

the devices working together collecting and transmitting energy

safely, and keep the maintenance costs under control?

According to Yoshida, this is the wrong series of questions.

My very optimistic forecast is 25 years,Yoshida told me, when I visited the company

headquarters in Tokyo last November.

raising the bar to the Moon.

Its very challenging, a good

project for a company like Shimizu. So

this is a type of campaign for us, says Yoshida.

A Feat of FuturismTo the jaded technology watcher, the LUNA RING may read not somuch bold as old-fashioned. In the projects size and scope, the

faith it expresses in large-scale and long-term, government-funded

initiatives, it harkens back to the 1970s, a decade synonymous with

many things, not least of which was U.S. space program euphoria.

It was during the 1970s that the U.S. Department of Energy and

NASA first conducted a series of studies on the feasibility of sending

energy to Earth from satellites.

These studies, called the Satellite Power System Concept Devel-

opment and Evaluation Program, were nothing less than an exercise

in super-futurism, with a group of scientists from around the world

writing back and forth in reports, letters, and journal articles, trying

to design something in the distant future using tools and technolo-

gies that did not exist in the present.

The proceedings of the program note more than a few major

obstacles to collecting and transmitting power in space. The space

infrastructure requirements were projected to be significant, John

C. Mankins, the manager of the

Advanced Concepts Studies Office

of Space Flight, told Congress in

1979, in what might be considered

something of an understatement.

The program explored a vari-

ety of concepts, design plans, andscenarios. One proposal emerged

as a leader: a network of dozens of

satellites working together to catch solar energy and beam it to

Earth, rather than a single satellite. But even with a network, the

objects and their solar arrays would need to be enormous to do the

job: large enough to collect and transmit 5 gigawatts of power each,

according to Mankinss testimony. (They would be transmitting

power for use in the United States exclusively.) Sending objects

into orbit becomes more costly and complicated as the size of the

The Moon-Based Power StationA solar collection satellite launched from Earth, even using

most advanced materials available in 2011, would weigh cl

to 10,000 tons, says Yoshida. This number, he later explaine

an e-mail, is his estimation of the weight of a 1-million-kilow

power plant in geosynchronous orbit.

So heavy and hard to control, you will need so many roc

launch pads. Too much money. So we chose the Moon as a pow

station, he says. We already have a natural satellite, one w

minerals and resources. And it already receives sunlight acr

its surface area.

The Moons face receives 13,000 trillion watts (terawatts

solar power continuously. This is 650 times the amount of pow

the entire human population would need to continue to gr

economically, according to space power expert David Crisw

Solar collection on the lunar surface would be 10 times more

ficient than it is on Earth, where our ozone and rich atmosph

make solar collection less efficient.

Heres how the LUNA ING would work. Robotic staff. The lunar base would require some hum

personnel, but the bulk of the work on the Moon would

performed by robots that were remotely controlled. Jap

has been conducting experiments with robotic giant arm

space since the 1997 launch of the ETS (Experimental T

Satellite) No. 7. I dont think [it will be] a big problem to cont

the robots on the Moon, Yoshida says.

Panels. Sending enough photovoltaic arrays to encircle

lunar equator would require a lot of costly launches a

burn up a lot of rocket fuel. The LUNA RING plan calls for t

robotic construction of those panels on the Moon direc

from lunar soil. This increases the overall efficiency a

energy savings of the program compared with others. It a

bumps up the complexity level of the proposal considerab

Photovoltaic panels are constructed from silicon, which ma

up 23% of the lunar surface. The Moon also hosts aluminum a

aluminum oxide, which factor into many solar cell designs. Th

retically, we have enough materials on the lunar surface to bu

solar panels, Yoshida says. But finding significant deposits

these minerals is a lot harder on the Moon than on Earth, wh

the formation and movement of oceans, rivers, lakes, and strea

created accessible mineral deposits. Theres no concentration

these minerals, says Yoshida, so all these resources are spr

over the lunar surface.

Once constructed, those panels would produce a lot of pow

A 4 400 km portion of the lunar solar belt would produce pow

equal to the energy consumption of Japan, says Yoshida. A 3

400 km portion would equal the energy consumption of Ind


10/17


Sixty by 400 km would power the United States, and a 400 400

km square would collect enough energy to satisfy the power

needs of the entire human population, by Yoshidas calculations.

Laser transmission. Like those solar-based power plans from

the 1970s, the LUNA RING would beam energy to Earth in one

of two ways, using either a microwave or a laser.

Microwave transmission experiments have been ongoing since

the 1960s and space laser st udies since the 1980s. In that time,

science agencies have demonstrated power transmission in

space, between orbiting objects and the Earth and between

planes and the ground. These,

h o w e v e r , w e r e l o w - l e v e l

power exchanges. The most

famous of these took place in

Goldstone, California, on June

5, 1975; the NASA Jet Propul-

sion Laboratory successfully

transmitted 34 kilowatts of

power over a distance of 1.5 kilometers. A space-based power

station would have to transfer a lot more power a lot farther.

More tests will be conducted around the world between now and

2015, including in the Tokai region of Japan where researchers

are working with a 2 kilowatt infrared laser. This isnt a lot of

power, eithernot enough to run a car, but sufficient to boil water

in a matter of seconds.

Over the MoonReaction to the LUNA RING among space experts whom THE

FUTURIST contacted was optimism tempered by skepticism.

Criswell is a long-time advocate for using the Moon as a power

station. Although hes a cheerleader, he acknowledges that much

more research needs to be done before a Moon-based power plan

can attract serious consideration. Much of that research would

have to take place aboard the International Space Station, which,

according to Criswell, presents something of a problem. The

fully staffed International Space Station will be hard pressed to

do its few authorized experiments in low-Earth orbit and keep

the station operating. It doesnt have the capability to support

the logistics for a major lunar infrastructure project or the staff

to monitor lunar surface operations, he said. However, the sta-

tion does provide the operational experience for building other

specialized facilities in orbit about the Earth and Moon and on

the Moon for power production.

Power from the Moon would have to travel 10 times farther to

get to Earth than would the same juice collected from a satellite.

Mankins believes that a giant wireless transmitter floating in

space would need to play a part in sending microwave or laser

power from point A to point B. Robots building solar arrays out

of lunar dirt? Maybe one day, Mankins says, but he insists that,

when space-based solar power comes to light, it will have to use

hardware built on Earth, at least initially.

David Criswell writes, From time to time, Shimizu develops

a very visionary future large-scale engineering concept []

their LUNA ING concept is only the latest of these.

I believe that the first [space-based power] pilot plant could

(with funding) be on orbit within 1015 years; waiting for a lunar

base to be established first would delay the availability of space

solar power by decades, he wrote in an e-mail. From time to

time, Shimizu develops a very visionary future large-scale engi-

neering concept that they then articulate to a broad audience.

Their LUNA RING concept is only the latest of these.

John Hickman, a member of the board of advisors of the

MarsDrive project and author of Reopening the Space Frontier

(Common Ground Publishing, 2010), is known as a space-policy

realist. Hes argued that the problem with most super-large space

projects is that they require too much from potential investors:

too much up-front capital, too much patience, and too much faith.

If attracting capital for projects using proven technologies

like communications satellites remains difficult, imagine the

difficulty of attracting sufficient capital to construct a mining

facility on the Moon or terraforming Mars or Venus, he wrote

in his 1999 essay, The Political Economy of Very Large Space

Projects, a critical analysis of why mega-scale space schemes

almost never get off the ground.

The United States is another potential investor, if not for the

LUNA RING, then for some competing space-based solar power

program, perhaps of the sort that Mankins has suggested. The

Obama administration has made repeated statements in favor

of alternative-energy research initiatives and big public works.

But the administration is also facing record deficits, a Congress

fighting to repeal its signature health-care program, a retirement

wave of historic proportions, and reelection in two years. Pitching

a speculative and fantastically expensive lunar energy project

to the American people under s uch conditions would be a loser.

An energy plan beyond the realm of cost considerations? Its an

optimistic idea, even more so than sending robots to the Moon to

build solar panels. In broaching it, Yoshida is also acknowledging

that the greatest impediment to space-based power isnt rocketsor robots or physics; its a dearth of public resources. A project of

such size and scope would require the willingness of hundreds

of millions of souls to reembrace government-funded space

programs. It would require sacrifice in the form of higher taxes,

cuts in other areas, or both. At present, this seems beyond the

capacity of the developed world.

About the AuthorPatrickTuckeristhesenioreditoroTHEFUTURISTmagazineand

thedirectorocommunicationsortheWorldFutureSociety.


11/17


BOO EVIEWSNEWANDNOTEWORTHY

Surprising Facts Aboutthe BrainBrainSense:TheScienceotheSensesand

HowWeProcesstheWorldAroundUsby

FaithHickmanBrynie.AMACOM.2009.274

pages.$24.

The brain is much more dynamic than

scientists used to think, according to

science and health writer Faith Hickman

Brynie in Brain Sense. She takes readers

on a tour of how the brain and the senses

interact, sharing discoveries that she says

have dramatic implications for brain re-search and medical practice. Examples:

Monkeys using their own brain waves

to control robotic arms.

Patients blinded by strokes regain

some of their vision by retraining

their eyes with computer-assisted

visual exercises.

New physical-therapy regimens that

relieve amputees of phantom-limb

pain (pains in the empty spaces where

those parts used to be).

Brynie points to newly discovered

ways that the brain constantly reshapes

its own structure and replacing circuits

or even memories that had been lost

or damaged. She also describes recent

observations about how the brain per-

ceives reality: Our brains have minds of

their own, she says. In other words, no

two people will taste, smell, or feel in the

same way.

Brynies Brain Sense is a fascinating

look at what it means to be human and

conscious. It is also an exciting preview

of treatments that doctors might one

day achieve.

Workplaces forChanging TimesChangeDesign:Conversationsabout

ArchitectureastheUltimateBusinessTool

byNBBJandBruceMau.Greenway.2009.

250pages.$59.95.

A well-designed building encourages

creativity and cooperation within, ac-

cording to architectural firm NBBJ and

design company Bruce Mau. Their jointly

authored and richly illustrated book

Change Design showcases new buildings

that offer new ways of working. Change

Design presents real-life stories of 14 or-

ganizations that enhanced productivity,

employee satisfaction, energy eff iciency,

or all three by changing the layout of their

office buildings.

Case studies include the Banner Health

hospital complex, designed to accommo-

date systematic growth over the next 20

years; Boeing, which brought manufac-

turers and designers two groups that

had always worked separately together

into one facility, thereby resolving prob-

lems more quickly and cutting production

time in half; and developer City Develop-

ments Limited, which custom-builds

high-rises with ventilation, shading,

and rainwater-sequestration features

to maximize sustainability and comfort.

Accompanying these stories are es-says on the nature of design, the future

of workplaces, the relationship between

building design and personal values, and

hope for resolving tensions between ex-

ecutives and designers. The volume also

includes descriptions of change-design

activities that you can organize in your

own workplace.

Change Design is a delightful show-

and-tell of architectural improvements

and their benefits. Artists, business lead-

ers, and professionals of all kinds may

find it informative and inspirational.

What the Chesapeake BayCan Teach ConservationistsFightortheBay:WhyaDarkGreen

EnvironmentalAwakeningisNeededtoSave

theChesapeakeBaybyHowardR.Ernst.

Rowman&Littleeld.2009.144pages.

Paperback.$19.95.

Pollution has reduced more than 400

water ecosystems around the world to

dead zones, notes U.S. Naval Academy

political-science professor Howard Ernst

in Fight for the Bay. For conservationiststrying to save these ecosystems, the east-

ern United States Chesapeake Bay serves

as a cautionary tale.

Since the early 1980s, Ernst explains, a

publicly funded Chesapeake Bay Program

has coordinated bay-restoration efforts

with the governments of neighboring

states Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania,

and Virginia. The program, however, lacks

any lawmaking power. It only organizes

public education campaigns, distributes

grants to citizen cleanup projects, and

sets nonbinding guidelines for state

officials. This voluntary approach

light-green conservation, as Ernst calls

it failed miserably. Fauna and animal life

across the bay remain in jeopardy, and its

fishing industries have collapsed.

There is no substitute for political

action and litigation, Ernst concludes.

However, he sees the Chesapeake Bay

Programs light-green approach being

repeated in estuaries around North

America and beyond. He hopes that

conservationists will change course

and accept confrontation as necessary

for reform.

Ernsts Fight for the Bay is an incisive

look at an important ecosystem and what

communities everywhere can learn from

it. Researchers, environmentalists, and

political activists of all kinds may find it

an enlightening read.

Alarmingly Practical AdviceFor DoomsdayHowtoSurvivetheEndotheWorldAs

KnowIt:Tactics,Techniques,andTechno

giesorUncertainTimesbyJamesWesle

Rawles.Plume.2009.153pages.

Paperback.$17.

Civilization is still standing no

but that does not mean it always w

cautions survival expert James Wes

Rawles in How to Survive the End of

World As We Know It.

Wed better know what to do in

event of a deadly viral pandemic, ma

asteroid strike, unprecedented hyp

inflationary (or deflationary) econo

depression, third World War, or any ot

global disaster, Rawles argues.

He spells out all the hazards that

might face in a post-disaster society: lo

ing, armed violence, food shortages,

Then he lays out steps we can take no

such as taking survival-training cour

designing shelters, and stocking th

with necessary supplies. He even off

a chapter on disaster-proof financial

curity: savvy investments to make n

earning income in the midst of a ma

recession, and bartering in the wak

a true disaster.

If all of these musings sound alarm

he explains, consider that the world to

is increasingly dangerous and frau

with uncertainty worldwide terro

movements since the early 1990s a

the 2008 meltdown of markets across

globe are proof.

enlargement from degenerating i

urban sprawl. If successful, they will

sign mixed-use neighborhoods that tr

all residents with equity. They will aharmonize urban and rural areas, and

in accordance with their regions natu

resource and water supplies.


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In 1955, Walt Disney Imagineersachieved virtual reality withDisneyland. Six Imagineeringprinciples explain how they did it.

By Gary Dehrer

1. Area Development.In reviewing Walt Disneys plan to have everyone enter Disneyland at Town Square, amu

park experts questioned why there was only one entrance. They also questioned the ex

Town Square, especially since it was not going to produce any revenue. Disney responded

entry space was designed to create an essential rst impression and special mood or h

All guests had to enter the Park the s ame way to share an identical illusion. Even the Ma

transportation, which included a re wagon and horse-drawn trolleys, was not intended

any money but to help add to the overall sensory experience. Town Square was to serv

gateway to Disneylands virtual reality.

magineers in Searchof the Future


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Blue Sky.sneyland was the rst project or Walt Disney Imagineering (WDI), which was created on December

1952, as part o WED (Walter Elias Disney) Enterprises. Walt Disney, considered to be the oremost

agineer o modern times, had built a major animation and lm studio by the early 1950s. WED was to

dress all Disney activities outside the lm studio and this would come to include Disney parks, resorts,

ecial attractions at Worlds Fairs, cruise ships, and other diverse entertainment activities. Disneyland

fered the Imagineers an opportunity to demonstrate that anything is possible.

In explaining the secret o his success, Walt Disney had one word or it: curiosity. Theres really no

cret about our approach, he said. We keep moving orwardopening up new doors and doing new

ngsbecause were curious. And curiosity keeps leading us down new paths. Were always exploring

d experimenting. And curiosity was orever wrapped in endless Blue Sky possibilities that begged

become realities.


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4. Dark ide.Dark rides ormed the backbone o Fantasylands entertainment experience, as special efects could

be used to urther create illusion and magic. In 1965, John Hench, one o Disneys rst and longtime

Imagineers, rendered a concept sketch that would evolve into Space Mountain, housing a dark-ride

roller coaster. The Space Mountain ride was nally achieved in 1975 as Tomorrowland continued to

be reworked. Hench said, The ride is above all an experience o speed, enhanced by the controlled

lighting and projected moving images. But it evokes such ideas as the mystery o outer space, the

excitement o setting out on a journey, and the thrill o the unknown.

inetics.an inspection tour o Disneyland when it was under construction, Walt Disney spent several hours

ng around in a Jeep accompanied by several people, including Joe Fowler, his construction boss.

parting rom Town Square, Disney and his small party drove over to Sleeping Beautys unnished

stle, where he described all o the attractions and how everything would look in ull color. He was

scribing the kinetics o Fantasyland and how the carousel horses would be leaping. Disney realized

t transerring stories rom lm to real-lie three dimensionality would be challenging but knew

guests could use their imaginations in the Park just as they did in movie theaters. Thus, the Park

perience would become believable, allowing guests to trust and enjoy the attractions and illusions.


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Elevation.agineering ushered in the concept o three-

mensional storytelling. Imagineers detailed

e images and settings they elt important to

ling stories through mood and sensation.

Even Main Street, U.S.A., had a story to tell.

hn Hench explains, Mood is created mainly

the sensation o careully orchestrated and

ensied stimuli, o color, sound, orm, and

ovement. Disneylands Main Street, U.S.A.,

hich represents the main shopping street in

idealized American turn-o-the-century small

wn, is a good example o mood created by

nsation that results in enhanced reality.


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THE FUTURIST | March-April 2011 | www.wfs.org28

Show.ucial to the virtual-reality creation was its

st o characters. To urther create his Dis-

yland illusion, Walt Disney instituted his

sneyland University, which would train Park

rsonnel to not just do their jobs, but to per-

rm as though they were onstage. Employees

ere expected to be happy and cheerul, ur-

er creating the eeling o an optimistic world.

ey would ollow special protocols and a dress

de to help guests eel comortable about par-

ipating in the show. Adding to this inclusive

ect were Mickey and Minnie Mouse, along

th other Disney cartoon characters, who

ould join guests in the Park. These costumed

alk-around characters were meant to mingle

th guests, posing or pictures but remaining

ent. The physical impact o the walk-around

aracters enhanced the show and produced a

nvincing and compelling antasy environment

r adults and children alike.

THE FUTURIST | Ma rch-April 2011 | www.wfs.org

AccordingtodataromtheCensusBureau,marr

rateshavebeeninalong-termdecline,withm

youngadultssayingIdonttotyingtheknot.For

rsttimeinoveracentury,thenumberosingleadu

hassurpassedthenumberomarriedcouples.

MoreAmericansarechoosingtoplaythewaitingga

whenitcomestosayingIdo.Currently,men,onav

age,arewaitinguntil28andwomenuntil26beo

walkingdowntheaisle.

Manyhavebeen

quicktondthe

causeothese

changes,citingthe

slumpingeconomy,a

growingincomegap,

highdivorcerates

andtherisingtrend

towardscohabitationasactorsthatmight

helpexplainthedelay

tomarryaswellas

themarriagegap.

Theactualreason

orthetendencyto

eitherdelaymarriage

ornevermarryat

allmaybemuch

morecomplicated.

Whateverthereason,

thesetrendsarent

likelytoreverse

anytimesoon.

First comes love, but what comes next?

Percentageoallpersonsag15orolderwhoweremarried

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 000 2008 20

68% 59% 56%61% 52% 47

*projectedda

64%

Medianageatrstmarriag

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 202

20 21 24 25 26 222

*projected

23 23 25 26 27 28 2

Word Watch: Pre-vivorNew words often offer clues to new

trends. The term pre-vivormeaning an

individual who takes extreme preventive

measures to ensure survivalsuggests a

new, more extreme level of proactivism.

As used by Baylor Medical Center breast

surgeon Valerie Gorman, the term refers

to women at risk of developing breast

cancer who opt for preemptive bilateral

mastectomies, or those who have devel-

oped cancer in one breast choosing to

remove the remaining healthy breast.

Comment: Becoming a pre-vivor may

seem extreme, but as change accelerates

and complexity grows in all areas of life,

risk assessment is becoming more and

more imperative. The sooner that a risk is

identified and acted upon, the more likely

survival becomes.

Source:BaylorHealthCareSystem,Market-

ingandPublicRelations,2001BryanStreet,

Suite750,Dallas,Texas75201.Website

www.baylorhealth.com

Liquid-Wood ToysA bioplastic made of renewable liquid

wood rather than petrochemicals could

be an ideal component for toys. The mate-

rial, known as Arbofoam, was developed

at the Fraunhofer Institute for Chemical

Technology ICT in Germany. Though bio-

plastics using cellulose from wood have

been used in other products, they have

been unsuitable for toys because of ad-

ditives such as sulfur. Arboforms sulfurcontent was reduced by 90%; the next

challenge was to find suitable additives

that keep the bioplastics from dissolving

in watera big problem since children

tend to suck on their toys or leave them

out in the rain.

Source:FraunhoerInstituteorChemical

Technology,Joseph-von-Fraunhoer-Strasse

7,76327Pnztal,Berghausen,Germany.

Websitewww.ict.raunhoer.de

FOECASTSTRENDSINBRIEF

Toward a More Multilingual Mi litaryThe U.S. military needs to improve its foreign-language and cultural skills to oper

more effectively, according to Congressman Vic Snyder (Democrat-Arizona), chairm

of the House Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee of the House Armed Servi

Committee. In todays and tomorrows national security environment, the demand

these skill sets may be even greater, given the range of missions our military person

can be called on to perform, he says. Language and cultural skills can save lives a

even prevent conflict. The Subcommittees report calls for increased support for forei

language study in the U.S. educational system, though it did not make clear how scho

are to predict where future military interests may be.

Source:U.S.HouseoRepresentatives,HouseArmedServicesCommittee,2120RayburnHo

OfceBuilding,Washington,D.C.20515.Websitehttp://armedservices.house.gov


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