T S V I B I S K A N D M I C A E L A Z I V W F S C O N F E R E N C E

S A N F R A N C I S C O , J U L Y 2 0 1 5

INTRODUCTION TO STRATEGIC FUTURIST THINKING

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SWOT/PEST ANALYSIS

•Strengths •Weaknesses•Opportunities•Threats

•Political•Economic•Social•Technological

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CONCEPTS TO LIVE BY - I

• Ideology Strategy

•Policy Tactics

•Grand Strategy www.tsvibisk.com

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CONCEPTS TO LIVE BY - II

•Policy of Limited Aims•Grand Strategic Joint•Strategy of Indirect Approach•Looking Backward Technique

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VOLITIONAL FUTURISMWhat future do we want?

Imagineering alternative futures: the primary task of the futurist

Imagination and logic: fundamental tools of creative futurism

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INTEGRATIVE THINKING

ProblemProblem

ProblemProblem

Solution

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NON-INTEGRATIVE THINKING

Problem Problem Problem Problem

Solution Solution Solution Solution

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LE CHATELIER’S PRINCIPLE•Why Doomsday Scenarios are always wrong

•Alternative imagineered futures actually change present reality

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AMERICAN RESPONSE TO 9/11

Greatest Grand Strategic Failure

in American History

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SELF-INFLICTED DAMAGE1. Damage to economy:• Short term- several trillion dollars of debt• Long term- U.S will have tens of billions of

dollars a year for veterans expenses for the next 50 years.

2. Damage to world standing3. Damage to moral self-confidence

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‘WAR ON TERROR’: A LUDICROUS CONCEPT

•Terror is a tactic.•You cannot wage war on a tactic.•You can wage war on a policy or an ideology, but not on a tactic.

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DEFINING THE ENEMY

• Ideological fanatics do not have a virgin birth: they are cultivated and nourished primarily by petrodollars

• Over $100 billion Saudi /Qatari money over the past 20-30 years

• Iran's Nuclear Program

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GRAND-STRATEGIC JOINTS

Weakening Oil as a vital international commodity the first and most vital grand- strategic joint in the war

on terror

Empowering women - the greatest long term subversive threat to Islamist extremism. Gender Apartheid must be made a crime against

humanity

5th Geneva Convention for Asymmetric Warfare must be convened

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New programs spawn

new technology

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PROCEDURE

1.Using strategies of indirect approach

2.Identifying the Grand Strategic Joint3.Applying multi-dimensional thinking4.Using Grand Strategy to enhance

ideological values and aims

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