3 UA megatrends for 2016

Eric Benjamin Seufert

Who am I?

Mobile Dev Memo

Freemium Economics

VP of User Acquisition & Network Engagement

2015 megatrends

2015 megatrends

• Continued surge of Video;

US Mobile Video Ad Spending2015 – 2018 (projection, billions)

Source: eMarketer

2015 2016 2017 2018 $-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

$2.62

$3.94

$5.09

$5.96 34%

41%45% 46%

Mobile Video Ad SpendMobile Video Ad Spend, Per-centage of Total

2015 megatrends

• Continued surge of Video;• Continued decline of mobile web;

Time Spent on Mobile Devices(minutes per day)

Source: Flurry

Q1 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 20150

50

100

150

200

250

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

158 162

220

20%

14%

10%

Time Spent on Mobile

Percentage of Mobile Time Spent in Browser

2015 megatrends

• Continued surge of Video;• Continued decline of mobile web;• Rise of the “viral gimmick app”;

2015 megatrends

• Continued surge of Video;• Continued decline of mobile web;• Rise of the “viral gimmick app”;• Growing impact of ad fraud;

2015 megatrends

• Continued surge of Video;• Continued decline of mobile web;• Rise of the “viral gimmick app”;• Growing impact of ad fraud;• Incipient development of walled gardens.

2016!

Megatrend 1: Growth of the Simultaneous Second Screen

Megatrend 1: Growth of the Simultaneous Second Screen

Megatrend 1: Growth of the Simultaneous Second Screen

Supports app features most tightly associated with spending money:

Megatrend 1: Growth of the Simultaneous Second Screen

Supports app features most tightly associated with spending money:• Competitive;

Megatrend 1: Growth of the Simultaneous Second Screen

Supports app features most tightly associated with spending money:• Competitive;• Social;

Megatrend 1: Growth of the Simultaneous Second Screen

Supports app features most tightly associated with spending money:• Competitive;• Social;• Time-limited.

Megatrend 1: Growth of the Simultaneous Second Screen

Supports app features most tightly associated with spending money:• Competitive;• Social;• Time-limited.

Opportunities:

Megatrend 1: Growth of the Simultaneous Second Screen

Supports app features most tightly associated with spending money:• Competitive;• Social;• Time-limited.

Opportunities:• Social fantasy sports;

Megatrend 1: Growth of the Simultaneous Second Screen

Supports app features most tightly associated with spending money:• Competitive;• Social;• Time-limited.

Opportunities:• Social fantasy sports;• Betting;

Megatrend 1: Growth of the Simultaneous Second Screen

Supports app features most tightly associated with spending money:• Competitive;• Social;• Time-limited.

Opportunities:• Social fantasy sports;• Betting;• Content extension (popular TV

shows, etc.).

Megatrend 2: Shift to Managed Services

Megatrend 2: Shift to Managed Services

Source: Mobile Dev Memo UA Questionnaire, http://mobiledevmemo.com/mobile-ua-questionaire-responses/

Megatrend 2: Shift to Managed Services

Source: Mobile Dev Memo UA Questionnaire, http://mobiledevmemo.com/mobile-ua-questionaire-responses/

Megatrend 2: Shift to Managed Services

• “No man’s land” of UA spend between $50 – 200k / month;

Megatrend 2: Shift to Managed Services

• “No man’s land” of UA spend between $50 – 200k / month;• Many companies employing 1-3 people for spending <$200k /

month, roles are becoming increasingly expensive & difficult to staff;

Megatrend 2: Shift to Managed Services

• “No man’s land” of UA spend between $50 – 200k / month;• Many companies employing 1-3 people for spending <$200k /

month, roles are becoming increasingly expensive & difficult to staff;

• Technology and analytics requirements for effective / efficient UA are growing, probably outside scope of most developers’ non-core services.

Megatrend 3: Growth of multi-device attribution

Megatrend 3: Growth of multi-device attribution

• Programmatic advertising may hit its stride on mobile in 2016;

Megatrend 3: Growth of multi-device attribution

Megatrend 3: Growth of multi-device attribution

• Programmatic advertising may hit its stride on mobile in 2016;• Video will only become more important in 2016;

Megatrend 3: Growth of multi-device attribution

Megatrend 3: Growth of multi-device attribution

• Programmatic advertising may hit its stride on mobile in 2016;• Video will only become more important in 2016;• Advertising networks are increasingly pushing view-through

attribution;

Megatrend 3: Growth of multi-device attribution

• Programmatic advertising may hit its stride on mobile in 2016;• Video will only become more important in 2016;• Advertising networks are increasingly pushing view-through

attribution;• In order to scale, advertisers will need to track video views

across multiple devices in order to calculate ROI;

Megatrend 3: Growth of multi-device attribution

• Programmatic advertising may hit its stride on mobile in 2016;• Video will only become more important in 2016;• Advertising networks are increasingly pushing view-through

attribution;• In order to scale, advertisers will need to track video views

across multiple devices in order to calculate ROI;• Deterministic matching will further accelerate development of

walled gardens.

Thanks!@eric_seufert

eric@mobiledevmemo.com

http://mobiledevmemo.com