iKnow interconnecting Knowledge
(EFP Workshop 26.10.11 - Part 1)
Rafael [email protected]
iKnow Project Director
ResearchingWild Cards
Researching Weak Signals
3 broader types of
Wild Cards
8 broader types of
Weak Signals
iKnow assumes that “anything” could be a weak signal… It all depends on the observer’s interpretation:1. Current Strengths & Weaknesses2. Current Drivers, Trends & Challenges3. Current Strategies & Policies4. Emerging Issues5. Future Drivers, Scenarios, Threats & Opportunities6. Shared Visions, Megatrends & Grand Challenges7. Hidden Issues (Secrets & Unknowns)8. Past Wild Cards Popper (2011)
Popper (2011)
McArthur's Universal
Corrective Map of the World
South
North
Popper (2011)
Some examples
ofWild Cards
Some examples
ofWeak
Signals
past wild cards
can be weak signals
of future events…
including newwild cards…
weak signalscan hint
about potential wild cards…
iKnow interconnecting Knowledge
(EFP Workshop 26.10.11 – Part 2)
Rafael [email protected]
iKnow Project Director
New Weak Signals Concept (Popper, 2011)
• Weak Signals are ambiguous events, often referred to as “seeds of change”, providing advance intelligence or “hints” about potentially important futures, e.g. Wild Cards, challenges and opportunities. Weak Signals lie in the eye of the beholder and are often influenced by the mental frameworks and subjective interpretations of individuals with limited information about emerging trends, developments or issues in a particular time and context. Their “weakness” is directly proportional to levels of uncertainty about their interpretations, importance and implications in the short-medium-to-long-term. Weak Signals are unclear observables warning us about the possibility of future “game changing” events.
• Influenced by– Mental frameworks– Subjective interpretations– Limited information– Time/Context
• i3 uncertain issues– Interpretation– Importance– Implications
• Pseudo-evidence-based– Unclear observables
• Creativity-based– Game changing events
iKnow is 50%
Research
iKnow is 50%
Technology Development
Research Agenda1. To develop wild cards (WI) research frameworks2. To develop weak signals (WE) research frameworks3. To develop strategies to scan and assess WIWE4. To explore WIWE shaping/shaking ERA & STI policy5. To develop ERA toolkit & practical guide to WIWE
Technology Development Agenda
1. To build tools capable of mapping WIWE2. To build tools capable of assessing WIWE3. To build tools capable of interconnecting WIWE4. To build tools capable of interconnecting knowledge5. To build tools capable of interconnecting actors
iKnow has positioned
Wild Cards &Weak Signals
(WI-WE) studies as a core element in foresight and
horizon scanning (FHS) activities
Horizon ScanningStrategy 1
ILTDHorizon Scanning
Strategy 2
OLTD
Horizon ScanningStrategy 4
OLBUHorizon Scanning
Strategy 3
ILBU
iKnow developed
4WIWE
scanning strategies
Top-Down
Inwa
rd-L
ooki
ng
Outward-Looking
Bottom-UpPopper (2011)
Popper (2011)
Nomination1. source2. theme3. sub-theme4. references5. short name / headline6. abstractDescription7. manifestation8. potential implications9. importanceAnalysis10. filters11. main drivers12. risks & opportunities13. stakeholders’ actionsInterconnection14. Grand Challenges15. thematic relevance16. ERA relevance17. relevant research-friendly strategies18. RTD & STI policy relevance
Nomination1. source2. theme3. sub-theme4. references5. short name / headline6. Abstract7. likelihoodDescription8. typology9. importanceAnalysis10. early indicators11. main drivers12. risks & opportunities13. stakeholders’ actionsInterconnection14. Grand Challenges15. thematic relevance16. ERA relevance17. relevant research-friendly strategies18. RTD & STI policy relevance
Mapping Weak SignalsMapping Wild Cards
Wild Cards Delphi Weak Signals Delphi
120 selected WIWE
assessed by
700+ participants
Wild Cards Delphi
Wild Cards headline navigation panel
Wild Cards headline navigation panel
Comments & full preview
Description & Originality
Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking
Importance for STI policy in Your Country & EU
Potential impacts on(in Your Country & the EU)
1- Physical infrastructure2 - Virtual infrastructure3 - Social welfare4 - Economy5 - Security6 - Policy & governance7 - Environment & ecosystems8 - STI systems
PreparednessERA relevance
Policy advice
Current signals indicating WI plausibilityFuture signals indicating WI plausibility
Analysis & Submission panels
60 Wild Cards
So far we have…
~4000assessments
Weak Signals Delphi
60 Weak Signals
So far we have…
2500+assessments
Wild Cards headline navigation panel
Wild Cards headline navigation panel
Comments & full preview
Description & Ambiguity
Main interpretation
STI Importance in Your Country & EU
Impact areas
1- Physical infrastructure2 - Virtual infrastructure3 - Social welfare4 - Economy5 - Security6 - Policy & governance7 - Environment & ecosystems8 - STI systems
ERA relevance
Policy advice
Potential wild card
Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking
Analysis & Submission panels
Comment on interpretation
Key facts and
figures
60 60 900+ ISSUES.
4000+ assessments to
60 Wild Cards
2500+ assessments to
60 Weak Signals
other
civil society
media
IGO
NGO
public actors (incl. research)
private actors (incl. research)
higher education institutions (HEI)
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
2%
0%
1%
1%
5%
22%
24%
44%
0%
0%
0%
3%
3%
4%
19%
71%
UK Global
113
434
UK Global
Delphi results on September 2011
50%match
CAP Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industryNUC Severe accident of a nuclear power plantSSH Soft "EuroLanding" or "Happy End" in EuroLandAGR Silent SeasCAP European Commission scrap research support projectsNUC A considerable increase in efficiency of renewable resourcesSSH Cyber Crusade: Massive e-sabotage by "hacktivists"AGR A Killer Water FilterICT Secure and safe internet that is easy to useENV Risk assessment "saves" millions of lives but…
Wild Cards
ICT Information crisis caused by personalized information deliveryENE Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy marketsICT Secure and safe internet that is easy to useENE Gas from TrashSSH Cyber Crusade: Massive e-sabotage by "hacktivists"CAP Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industryICT Nano-lab inside your body HEA End of AgeingCAP European Commission scrap research support projectsSSH Soft "EuroLanding" or "Happy End" in EuroLand
Wild Cards
for
UK
30%match
CAP Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industryCAP European Commission scrap research support projectsNUC Severe accident of a nuclear power plantNUC A considerable increase in efficiency of renewable resourcesAGR Silent SeasSPA Space warSPA Revolutionary space propulsion technologySSH Soft "EuroLanding" or "Happy End" in EuroLandSSH Cyber Crusade: Massive e-sabotage by "hacktivists"HEA End of Ageing
ENE Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy marketsCAP Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industryICT Information crisis caused by personalized information deliveryICT Nano-lab inside your body CAP Scientists up for murder as ethical issues for research are abolishedCAP European Commission scrap research support projectsENE Gas from TrashSSH Automatic learning through neuro-data transferICT Secure and safe internet that is easy to useHEA End of Ageing
Wild Cards for
STI
Wild Cards
for
UKSTI
Top 10Wild Cards
for
UK STI
Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets
Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industry
Information crisis caused by personalized information delivery
Nano-lab inside your body
Scientists up for murder as ethical issues for research are abolished
European Commission scrap research support projects
Gas from Trash
Automatic learning through neuro-data transfer
Secure and safe internet that is easy to use
End of Ageing
Vi-I Sec Eco Pol STISoWEnvPh-I
Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets
Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industry
Information crisis caused by personalized information delivery
Nano-lab inside your body
Scientists up for murder as ethical issues for research are abolished
European Commission scrap research support projects
Gas from Trash
Automatic learning through neuro-data transfer
Secure and safe internet that is easy to use
End of Ageing
1
2
3
4
5
Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures Social welfareEconomy Security Policy & governanceEnvironment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems
STIEnv
SoWEco
Vi-ISec
STI
Vi-I
Eco
EnvEco
STIPol
STIPol
SoWSTI
Vi-I
STI
Pol
Sec
Sec
STI EcoSec
Sec
Popper (2011)
CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholarsAGR Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate changeCAP Administration rather than results a prioritySEC No strict global rules on nuclear securityNUC Development of new materialsENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world SPA Privatisation of space flightsNAN Implantable electronics leaving no traceSSH Concerns over socio-economic and humanities research "downgrade"NUC Small-scale nuclear power plant operating
CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholarsCAP Administration rather than results a prioritySEC No strict global rules on nuclear securityICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platformENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world ICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications AGR Bees be no more, less food than beforeENV Growing environmental legal class actions on no-win no-fee basisENV Emergence of secondary carbon financial vehiclesHEA Increasing Self-Medication
Weak Signals
Top 10Weak
Signals for
UK
40%match
CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholarsSPA Optical lifting demonstrated for the first timeCAP Administration rather than results a prioritySSH Growing interest in wild cards and weak signals researchCAP Growing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projectsSPA Ideas for radically new ways to reach SpaceNAN Herbs (enhanced by Nanotechnology) used to fight cancerSPA Privatisation of space flightsNAN Implantable electronics leaving no traceNUC Development of new materials
HEA Neuro-EnhancementICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications SSH Growing interest in wild cards and weak signals researchCAP Lack of interest in science by young scholarsCAP Administration rather than results a priorityCAP Growing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projectsHEA Increasing Self-MedicationICT Migration of internet services in pervasive ICT environmentICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platformENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world
Weak Signals
for
STI
Top 10 Weak
Signals for
UKSTI
40%match
Neuro-Enhancement
Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications
Growing interest in wild cards and weak signals research
Lack of interest in science by young scholars
Administration rather than results a priority
Growing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projects
Increasing Self-Medication
Migration of internet services in pervasive ICT environment
Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform
Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world
Top 10Weak Signals
for
UK STI
Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world
Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform
Migration of internet services in pervasive ICT environment
Increasing Self-Medication
Growing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projects
Administration rather than results a priority
Lack of interest in science by young scholars
Growing interest in wild cards and weak signals research
Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications
Neuro-Enhancement
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
91%
71%
83%
67%
71%
67%
44%
50%
50%
33%
9%
14%
17%
22%
29%
33%
33%
43%
50%
67%
14%
11%
11%
0%
11%
7%
Interpretations of the Signalspotential continuation of important present issues in the future potential discontinuation of important present issues/developmentspotential re-emergence of past issues potential emergence of new issues/developments
Lack of interest in science by young scholars
Growing interest in wild cards and weak signals research
Growing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projects
Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform
Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications
Migration of internet services in pervasive ICT environment
Neuro-Enhancement
Administration rather than results a priority
Increasing Self-Medication
Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures Social welfareEconomy Security Policy & governanceEnvironment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems
Vi-I STI
Sec STI
SoW PolEco STI
Pol Eco
Pol EcoSTI
Pol STI
Vi-ISTISoW Eco
SoWEnv Ph-I
Popper (2011)
iKnow Project & Tools(R + TD Agenda)
iOracle(Mapping)
iLibrary(interconnecting, sharing and
managing knowledge)
iCommunity(Networking)
iScan(Advanced WI-WE monitoring)
iBank(Knowledge generation
and WI-WE mapping)
iDelphi(Participatory WI-WE assessment)
iNews(Dissemination)
Top Related