IKnow interconnecting Knowledge (EFP Workshop 26.10.11 - Part 1) Rafael Popper...

iKnow interconnecting Knowledge

(EFP Workshop 26.10.11 - Part 1)

Rafael [email protected]

iKnow Project Director

ResearchingWild Cards

Researching Weak Signals

3 broader types of

Wild Cards

8 broader types of

Weak Signals

iKnow assumes that “anything” could be a weak signal… It all depends on the observer’s interpretation:1. Current Strengths & Weaknesses2. Current Drivers, Trends & Challenges3. Current Strategies & Policies4. Emerging Issues5. Future Drivers, Scenarios, Threats & Opportunities6. Shared Visions, Megatrends & Grand Challenges7. Hidden Issues (Secrets & Unknowns)8. Past Wild Cards Popper (2011)

Popper (2011)

McArthur's Universal

Corrective Map of the World

South

North

Popper (2011)

Some examples

ofWild Cards

Some examples

ofWeak

Signals

past wild cards

can be weak signals

of future events…

including newwild cards…

weak signalscan hint

about potential wild cards…

iKnow interconnecting Knowledge

(EFP Workshop 26.10.11 – Part 2)

Rafael [email protected]

iKnow Project Director

New Weak Signals Concept (Popper, 2011)

• Weak Signals are ambiguous events, often referred to as “seeds of change”, providing advance intelligence or “hints” about potentially important futures, e.g. Wild Cards, challenges and opportunities. Weak Signals lie in the eye of the beholder and are often influenced by the mental frameworks and subjective interpretations of individuals with limited information about emerging trends, developments or issues in a particular time and context. Their “weakness” is directly proportional to levels of uncertainty about their interpretations, importance and implications in the short-medium-to-long-term. Weak Signals are unclear observables warning us about the possibility of future “game changing” events.

• Influenced by– Mental frameworks– Subjective interpretations– Limited information– Time/Context

• i3 uncertain issues– Interpretation– Importance– Implications

• Pseudo-evidence-based– Unclear observables

• Creativity-based– Game changing events

iKnow is 50%

Research

iKnow is 50%

Technology Development

Research Agenda

1. To develop wild cards (WI) research frameworks2. To develop weak signals (WE) research frameworks3. To develop strategies to scan and assess WIWE4. To explore WIWE shaping/shaking ERA & STI policy5. To develop ERA toolkit & practical guide to WIWE

Technology Development Agenda

1. To build tools capable of mapping WIWE2. To build tools capable of assessing WIWE3. To build tools capable of interconnecting WIWE4. To build tools capable of interconnecting knowledge5. To build tools capable of interconnecting actors

iKnow has positioned

Wild Cards &Weak Signals

(WI-WE) studies as a core element in foresight and

horizon scanning (FHS) activities

Horizon ScanningStrategy 1

ILTD


OLTD


OLBU


ILBU

iKnow developed

4WIWE

scanning strategies

Top-Down

Inw

ard-

Look

ing

Outw

ard-Looking

Bottom-UpPopper (2011)

Popper (2011)

Nomination1. source2. theme3. sub-theme4. references5. short name / headline6. abstractDescription7. manifestation8. potential implications9. importanceAnalysis10. filters11. main drivers12. risks & opportunities13. stakeholders’ actionsInterconnection14. Grand Challenges15. thematic relevance16. ERA relevance17. relevant research-friendly strategies18. RTD & STI policy relevance

Nomination1. source2. theme3. sub-theme4. references5. short name / headline6. Abstract7. likelihoodDescription8. typology9. importanceAnalysis10. early indicators11. main drivers12. risks & opportunities13. stakeholders’ actionsInterconnection14. Grand Challenges15. thematic relevance16. ERA relevance17. relevant research-friendly strategies18. RTD & STI policy relevance

Mapping Weak SignalsMapping Wild Cards

Wild Cards Delphi Weak Signals Delphi

120 selected WIWE

assessed by

700+ participants

Wild Cards Delphi

Wild Cards headline navigation panel


Comments & full preview

Description & Originality

Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking

Importance for STI policy in Your Country & EU

Potential impacts on(in Your Country & the EU)

1- Physical infrastructure2 - Virtual infrastructure3 - Social welfare4 - Economy5 - Security6 - Policy & governance7 - Environment & ecosystems8 - STI systems

PreparednessERA relevance

Policy advice

Current signals indicating WI plausibilityFuture signals indicating WI plausibility

Analysis & Submission panels

60 Wild Cards

So far we have…

~4000assessments

Weak Signals Delphi

60 Weak Signals

So far we have…

2500+assessments



Comments & full preview

Description & Ambiguity

Main interpretation

STI Importance in Your Country & EU

Impact areas

1- Physical infrastructure2 - Virtual infrastructure3 - Social welfare4 - Economy5 - Security6 - Policy & governance7 - Environment & ecosystems8 - STI systems

ERA relevance

Policy advice

Potential wild card

Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking

Analysis & Submission panels

Comment on interpretation

Key facts and

figures

60 60 900+ ISSUES.

4000+ assessments to

60 Wild Cards

2500+ assessments to

60 Weak Signals

other

civil society

media

IGO

NGO

public actors (incl. research)

private actors (incl. research)

higher education institutions (HEI)

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

2%

0%

1%

1%

5%

22%

24%

44%

0%

0%

0%

3%

3%

4%

19%

71%

UK Global

113

434

UK Global

Delphi results on September 2011

50%match

CAP Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industry

NUC Severe accident of a nuclear power plant

SSH Soft "EuroLanding" or "Happy End" in EuroLand

AGR Silent Seas

CAP European Commission scrap research support projects

NUC A considerable increase in efficiency of renewable resources

SSH Cyber Crusade: Massive e-sabotage by "hacktivists"

AGR A Killer Water Filter

ICT Secure and safe internet that is easy to use

ENV Risk assessment "saves" millions of lives but…

Wild Cards

ICT Information crisis caused by personalized information delivery

ENE Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets


ENE Gas from Trash



ICT Nano-lab inside your body

HEA End of Ageing



Wild Cards

for

UK

30%match



NUC Severe accident of a nuclear power plant

NUC A considerable increase in efficiency of renewable resources

AGR Silent Seas

SPA Space war

SPA Revolutionary space propulsion technology



HEA End of Ageing

ENE Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets


ICT Information crisis caused by personalized information delivery

ICT Nano-lab inside your body

CAP Scientists up for murder as ethical issues for research are abolished


ENE Gas from Trash

SSH Automatic learning through neuro-data transfer


HEA End of Ageing

Wild Cards for

STI

Wild Cards

for

UKSTI

Top 10Wild Cards

for

UK STI

Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets

Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industry

Information crisis caused by personalized information delivery

Nano-lab inside your body

Scientists up for murder as ethical issues for research are abolished

European Commission scrap research support projects

Gas from Trash

Automatic learning through neuro-data transfer

Secure and safe internet that is easy to use

End of Ageing

Vi-I Sec Eco Pol STISoWEnvPh-I

Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets

Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industry

Information crisis caused by personalized information delivery

Nano-lab inside your body

Scientists up for murder as ethical issues for research are abolished

European Commission scrap research support projects

Gas from Trash

Automatic learning through neuro-data transfer

Secure and safe internet that is easy to use

End of Ageing

1

2

3

4

5

Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures Social welfareEconomy Security Policy & governanceEnvironment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems

STIEnv

SoWEco

Vi-ISec

STI

Vi-I

Eco

EnvEco

STIPol

STIPol

SoWSTI

Vi-I

STI

Pol

Sec

Sec

STI EcoSec

Sec

Popper (2011)

CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars

AGR Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change

CAP Administration rather than results a priority

SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security

NUC Development of new materials

ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world

SPA Privatisation of space flights

NAN Implantable electronics leaving no trace

SSH Concerns over socio-economic and humanities research "downgrade"

NUC Small-scale nuclear power plant operating



SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security

ICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform


ICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications

AGR Bees be no more, less food than before

ENV Growing environmental legal class actions on no-win no-fee basis

ENV Emergence of secondary carbon financial vehicles

HEA Increasing Self-Medication

Weak Signals

Top 10Weak

Signals for

UK

40%match


SPA Optical lifting demonstrated for the first time


SSH Growing interest in wild cards and weak signals research

CAP Growing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projects

SPA Ideas for radically new ways to reach Space

NAN Herbs (enhanced by Nanotechnology) used to fight cancer

SPA Privatisation of space flights

NAN Implantable electronics leaving no trace

NUC Development of new materials

HEA Neuro-Enhancement

ICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications

SSH Growing interest in wild cards and weak signals research



CAP Growing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projects

HEA Increasing Self-Medication

ICT Migration of internet services in pervasive ICT environment

ICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform


Weak Signals

for

STI

Top 10 Weak

Signals for

UKSTI

40%match

Neuro-Enhancement

Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications

Growing interest in wild cards and weak signals research

Lack of interest in science by young scholars

Administration rather than results a priority

Growing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projects

Increasing Self-Medication

Migration of internet services in pervasive ICT environment

Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform

Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world

Top 10Weak Signals

for

UK STI










Neuro-Enhancement

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

91%

71%

83%

67%

71%

67%

44%

50%

50%

33%

9%

14%

17%

22%

29%

33%

33%

43%

50%

67%

14%

11%

11%

0%

11%

7%

Interpretations of the Signals

potential continuation of important present issues in the future potential discontinuation of important present issues/developmentspotential re-emergence of past issues potential emergence of new issues/developments







Neuro-Enhancement




0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures Social welfareEconomy Security Policy & governanceEnvironment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems

Vi-I STI

Sec STI

SoW PolEco STI

Pol Eco

Pol EcoSTI

Pol STI

Vi-ISTISoW Eco

SoWEnv Ph-I

Popper (2011)

iKnow Project & Tools(R + TD Agenda)

iOracle(Mapping)

iLibrary(interconnecting, sharing and

managing knowledge)

iCommunity(Networking)

iScan(Advanced WI-WE monitoring)

iBank(Knowledge generation

and WI-WE mapping)

iDelphi(Participatory WI-WE assessment)

iNews(Dissemination)

IKnow interconnecting Knowledge (EFP Workshop 26.10.11 - Part 1) Rafael Popper...

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