Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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Transcript of Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
EC4MACS
European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies
Update
Contents
• EC4MACS background• EC4MACS workplan• EC4MACS recent achievements and next steps• EC4MACS – NIAM• NEC Directive review update
Background
• The European Commission envisages for 2011/12 a review and revisions of their air quality legislation and the European Climate Change Programme. Model analyses can make useful contributions for these reviews.
• The consistency of EU policies in different fields are of increasing concern.
• EC4MACS provides institutional funding to a consortium of key modelling teams to have modelling tools technically ready and accepted by stakeholders for policy applications.
Objectives
• Providing scientific and economic analyes for the revision of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air and the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP)
• Improvement of existing models by including recent scientific findings.
• Update of input data
• Accceptance of modelling tools and input data by stakeholders
• Make modelling tools available to the public over the Internet.
Partners
• IIASA (AT) – Coordinator, integrated assessment
• MNP/RIVM (NL) - Modelling of environmental impacts
• NTUA Athens (GR) – Energy projections
• Uni Bonn, EuroCare (DE) – Agricultural projections
• LUATh Thessaloniki (GR) – Transport modelling
• Mike Holland, AEAT, Metroeconomica (UK) – Economic benefit analysis
• (MET.NO (NO) – Modelling of atmospheric chemistry and transport)
• JRC-Ispra
• JRC-Sevilla
The EC4MACS model system
GAINSPOLES PRIMES
CAPRI
TM5 EMEP
CCE-CL
TREMOVE
BENEFITS
Global/hemisphericboundary conditions
European policy drivers
Energy
Transport
Atmosphere
Agriculture
Ecosystems
GEM-E3
Cost-effectiveness
Impacts
EU-FASOM, DNDCLand use
General work plan
• 2007: – Methodological improvements
• 2008: – Data collection – Feedbacks on methodological improvements
• 2009– Interim assessment– Methodology workshop
• 2010– Uncertainty assessment – Bilateral consultations on input data – Stakeholder workshop on baseline projections
• 2011– Final assessment
Recent achievements - GAINS
• Interface with PRIMES, numerous scenarios have been exchanged for the Commission’s burden sharing proposal, the CCS study and the NEC revision (including the PRIMES 2007 baseline scenario)
• GAINS provided cost curves for non-CO2 gases for the January 2008 Climate and Energy Package of the Commission, and assessed co-benefits on air pollution
• Optimization analyses for the NEC revision based on the burden sharing energy projection. Commission will use this for NEC proposal in June 2008
CAPRICAPRI
EC4MACS Project meeting, Laxenburg, 03-04..04.08 Peter Witzke, EuroCARE, Arno Becker U Bonn
Achievements for EC4MACS
• Database, policy representation, parameterisation updated
for EU27 + Western Balkan + Turkey
• Improved description of N Cycle inherited from earlier projects
(Ammonia, JRC-Ispra collaboration)
• Prepared for modelling of biofuels demand shocks, but
- No trade in fuels (ethanol, bio-diesel)
- Shares of feed stocks + demand shock exogenous
• Update of international database is under way
- Need to update FAOSTAT1 with FAOSTAT2 + AGLINK
E3M – Lab
DEVELOPMENTS IN 2007 - PRIMES Full update of the model database
Energy balances statistics, energy prices and taxes, economic activity statistics
New plant level data for the power plants
Similar data collection took place for other sectors
Information about current policies and measures
Update of the technological and economic projections about the future evolution of new energy technologies in all domains
Update of resources and renewable potential information disaggregated per source and Member State
Including data on possibilities for CO2 geological storage
Apr 2
1, 2
02
3
E3M – Lab
DEVELOPMENTS IN 2007 - PRIMES New Baseline scenario constructed
Very important as it is considered as a reference projection against which all alternative policy projections are compared to in order to draw impact assessment conclusions
Model calibration to reproduce years 2000 and 2005
The final Baseline was ready by the end of Nov 2007 Detailed report will be available by the end of April 2008
The new Baseline has been extensively used to analyze the effects of the announced Commission targets for 2020
Improved interface of PRIMES and GAINS models
Apr 2
1, 2
02
3
JRC/AL-IIASA 02.04.2008 – EC4MACS/NIAM meeting 12
GHG balance of rapeseed cultivation
kg CO2-eq ha-1
Tasks for 2008
• Produce interim documentation on methodologies
• Start consultation on methodology over the Internet
• Harmonize C/N cycle and agricultural modelling approaches
• Link to global scale (with JRCs)
E3M – Lab
AN OUTLOOK INTO 2008 ACTIVITIES - PRIMES
Evaluation of alternative policy assumptions on the evolution of the energy system
The detailed definition of scenarios will be decided in close interaction with DG-ENV and the EC4MACS steering group
A first set of tentative alternative policy scenarios has been already prepared
Scenarios exploring the range of different burden sharing targets per Member State
Specific scenarios exploring the possibility of CCS technology deployment
Apr 2
1, 2
02
3
JRC/AL-IIASA 02.04.2008 – EC4MACS/NIAM meeting 15
Questions that could help to improve GAINS
→Are direct N2O emissions really linearly dependent on N-
input?
→Will the Nitrate Directive have an effect on N2O emissions?
→Which impacts can be expected from changing production
technologies/agronomic optimizations?
→Do we need extra-emission factors for organic farming?
→What is the cost-efficiency of precision farming?
Three questions to NIAM
• How can EC4MACS improve the communication with national modelling teams?
• Which information from EC4MACS would be useful for national modelling teams?
• Which information could be provided by national modelling teams to be included in the Europe-wide analysis?
Interaction with national modelling teams
• Information that could be offered:– GAINS is accessible available on the Internet, all data can be
freely downloaded – National versions of GAINS possible
• Most useful information from national teams:– Implementation of current emission control legislation – Energy projections coherent with national climate policy
• Under EC4MACS, bilateral consultations foreseen for 2010.
JRC/AL-IIASA 02.04.2008 – EC4MACS/NIAM meeting 18
Possible interactions with national teams
→Farm practice/management (NitroEurope-IP: crop rotations;
timing of operations; ...)
→Detailed land use maps (e.g. commune-level for validation
of our agri-maps)
National teams DNDC-EUROPE
National teams DNDC-EUROPE
→“Regionalized” emission factors for Nr/GHG fluxes from
agricultural soils
Different approaches for national GAINS implementations
The “Italian” way:• Provinces as separate emission source regions• Province-to-grid transfer matrices• Software hosted locally, only limited update
The “Dutch” way:• Entire country as one source region (as in GAINS-Europe)• Sector-to-grid transfer matrices• Software hosted at IIASA server (but with restricted access),
regularly updated• Fully integrated into GAINS-Europe
State of play of the revision of the EU NEC Directive
Markus Amann (IIASA)based on input from Ger Klaassen and Andre Zuber (EC)
State of play
• DG-ENV has started Inter-Service consultations
• Commission’s agreement planned for July 2008
• No further stakeholder involvement before publication of final Commission’s proposal
• Once agreed, NEC6 report and scenario details on GAINS internet will be released
Assumptions on economic drivers for NEC optimization
• Economic development and energy policy as in PRIMES Nov 2007 baseline
• Energy projection (developed with PRIMES) is compliant with Climate and Energy package.
– Flexible instruments to cut-off domestic measures at €30/t CO2
– Assuming trading of renewable energy permits among Member States
– Results in -12% CO2 in 2020 in the EU-27
• National projections of agricultural activities as used before
Primary energy consumption in EU-272000 and projections for 2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 National projections 2006 PRIMES 2007 baseline C&E Package
TJ
Coal Oil Gas Biomass Other renewables Other
Environmental improvements and emission reductions, central case, EU-27, 2020
-100%-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%
VOC
NH3
PM2.5
NOx
SO2
Emission reductions relative to 2000
Emissions reduced by Current policy Additional reductions
-100%-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%
Cases of premature deathsfrom ozone
Forest area not protectedagainst acidification
Ecosystems area notprotected against
eutrophication
Years of life lost fromPM2.5
Impact reductions relative to 2000
Reduced by Current policy Additional reductions
Environmental improvements Emission reductions
Air pollution control costs 2020on top of current policy
Costs as % of GDP per Member State
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
Aus
tria
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% o
f G
DP
Trade-off between efficiency and equityIncrease in total costs if GDP-related costs in each MS limited
Costs as % of GDP per Member State Costs for EU-27
0.00
0.01
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0.04
0.05
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% o
f G
DP
0.0
0.5
1.0
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2.5
3.0
Em
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co
ntr
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cost
s (m
illi
on
€/y
r)
Trade-off between efficiency and equityIncrease in total costs if GDP-related costs in each MS limited
Costs as % of GDP per Member State Costs for EU-27
0.00
0.01
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0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
Aus
tria
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% o
f G
DP
0.0
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1.0
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Em
issi
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co
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cost
s (m
illi
on
€/y
r)
Trade-off between efficiency and equityIncrease in total costs if GDP-related costs in each MS limited
Costs as % of GDP per Member State Costs for EU-27
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Em
issi
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co
ntr
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cost
s (m
illi
on
€/y
r)0.00
0.01
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% o
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Sensitivity cases
1. Without Climate and Energy Package (i.e., for PRIMES 2007 baseline)
2. Without trading of renewable energy
3. With full implementation of Nitrates Directive
4. For alternative health impact hypothesis (primary PM only)
5. For higher environmental ambition level (as suggested by European Parliament)
EU-27 emissions of the sensitivity casesrelative to 2000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SO2 NOx PM2.5 NH3 VOC
Em
issi
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s re
lati
ve t
o 2
000
TSAP central case No C&E package No renewables trade
With Nitrates Directive Health impacts only primary PM European Parliament
SO2 reductionsfor the central and the sensitivity cases
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Bul
garia
Cyp
rus
Cze
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ep.
Den
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k
Est
onia
Fin
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Fra
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Hun
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Irel
and
Italy
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Lith
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Luxe
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urg
Mal
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EU
-27
Em
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s r
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Range for emission reductions (CP-MRR) TSAP central case Without C&E Without RES trade With ND PPM only
NOx reductionsfor the central and the sensitivity cases
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
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60%
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80%
90%
100%
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Fin
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Fra
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Ger
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Hun
gary
Irel
and
Italy
Latv
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Lith
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Luxe
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Mal
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Net
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nds
Pol
and
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Slo
vaki
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Spa
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Sw
eden UK
EU
-27
Em
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s r
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tiv
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o 2
00
0
Range for emission reductions (CP-MRR) TSAP central case Without C&E Without RES trade With ND PPM only
PM2.5 reductionsfor the central and the sensitivity cases
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Bul
garia
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Den
mar
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Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
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Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Italy
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mal
ta
Net
herla
nds
Pol
and
Por
tuga
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Rom
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Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
EU
-27
Em
iss
ion
s r
ela
tiv
e t
o 2
000
Range for emission reductions (CP-MRR) TSAP central case Without C&E Without RES trade With ND PPM only
NH3 reductionsfor the central and the sensitivity cases
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Bul
garia
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Den
mar
k
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Italy
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mal
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Net
herla
nds
Pol
and
Por
tuga
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Rom
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Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
EU
-27
Em
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s r
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o 2
00
0
Range for emission reductions (CP-MRR) TSAP central case Without C&E Without RES trade With ND PPM only
Conclusions
• While final decision on NECs not yet taken within the Commission, NEC proposal will be coherent with Climate and Energy package
• Proposed emission reductions are in safe distance to MRR
• Sensitivity cases suggest robustness against (reasonable) changes in major exogenous policy assumptions
• Full documentation will be released after publication of the final Commission proposal