The three CAFE policy scenarios Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Chris Heyes, Zbigniew Klimont, Wolfgang...
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Transcript of The three CAFE policy scenarios Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Chris Heyes, Zbigniew Klimont, Wolfgang...
![Page 1: The three CAFE policy scenarios Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Chris Heyes, Zbigniew Klimont, Wolfgang Schöpp, Fabian Wagner.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070413/5697bfc91a28abf838ca8c24/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The three CAFE policy scenarios
Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Chris Heyes, Zbigniew Klimont, Wolfgang Schöpp, Fabian Wagner
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Assumptions
• CAFE baseline “with climate measures” for 2020
• Agricultural projections without CAP reform
• Further measures for road emissions taken
• Meteorology of 1997
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Costs for gap closures between CLE and MTFR
*) excluding costs for road sources
CLEMTFR
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Gap closure between CLE and MTFR
Billion Euro/year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Acidification optimized PM optimized Eutrophication optimized Ozone optimized
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Composite gap closure indicatorsSum of gap closure percentages of all environmental end points
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
PM optimized Ozone optimized Acid optimized Eutro optimized Joint optimization
PM Acidification Eutrophication Ozone
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Targets selected for the optimization
CLE Case “A”
Case “B”
Case “C”
MTFR
Years of life lost due to PM2.5 (EU-wide, million YOLLs)
137 110 104 101 96
Acidification (country-wise gap closure on cumulative excess deposition)
0% 55% 75% 85% 100%
Eutrophication (country-wise gap closure on cumulative excess deposition)
0% 55% 75% 85% 100%
Ozone (country-wise gap closure on SOMO35)
0% 60% 80% 90% 100%
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Emission control costsfor three ambition levels for the four targets*)
*) excluding costs for road sources
0
10
20
30
40
MTFR Case "C" Case "B" Case "A" CLE
Billion Euro/year
PM optimized O3 optimized Acidification optimizedEutrophication optimized Joint optimization
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Effects in 2000 and for CAFE medium ambition 2020
PM Eutrophication Ozone
Acid, forests Acid, lakes Acid, semi-nat.
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Optimized emission reductions for EU-25of the D23 scenarios [2000=100%]
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5
% of 2000 emissions
Grey range: CLE to MTFR Case "A" Case "B" Case "C"
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Costs per pollutant for EU-25on top of CLE
0
10
20
30
40
Case "A" Case "B" Case "C" MTFR
Billion Euros/year
Road sources SO2 NOx NH3 VOC PM
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Measures taken in the D23 medium ambition scenario
• SO2
– Low sulphur coal
– Low sulphur heavy fuel oil
– Flue gas desulphurization
• NOx
– Combustion modifications
– Selective non-catalytic and catalytic reduction
– NOx reduction from light- and heavy-duty diesel vehicles
• PM– High efficiency dedusters
– New boiler types in the residential sector
– Good housekeeping measures on oil boilers
– Low sulphur fuels for (national) sea traffic
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Measures taken in the D23 medium ambition scenario
• Ammonia– Application of pig and cattle
manures with low ammonia application measures
– Substituting ammonium nitrate by urea
– Covers on manure storage for pigs and cattle
– Changes in feeding strategies
• VOC – Control of fugitive losses in
organic chemical industry
– Switch emulsion bitumen in road paving
– Paint application (coatings)
– Stage II VOC controls
– Liquid fuel production (improved flare and reduction of fugitive losses)
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Distribution of costs[€/person/year]
0
20
40
60
80
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Den
mar
k
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Italy
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mal
ta
Net
herla
nds
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
EU
-25
Total Costs (Euro/person/yr) Low ambition Medium ambition
0
20
40
60
80
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Den
mar
k
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Ital
y
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mal
ta
Net
herla
nds
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
EU
-25
Total Costs (Euro/person/yr) Low ambition Medium ambition High ambition
*) excluding costs for road sources
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Distribution of physical benefitsCAFE Case “B”
% point improvements in total European effect indicators*), sum over four effects
*) between CLE and MTFR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Den
mar
k
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Ital
y
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mal
ta
Net
herla
nds
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
YOLL gains Eutrophication Acidification Ozone
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Conclusions
• Three cases calculated for three ambition levels: costs of 6, 11 and 15 billion €/year
• For targets on PM, eutrophication, acidification and ozone
• Resulting emission reductions are cost-effective and have equitable distributions of costs and physical benefits