IIASA

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Emission Inventories and Projectionsof NOx, NH3, and NMVOC in East Asia

Z. Klimont

The 4th Workshop on the Transport of Air Pollutants in Asia (Model Intercomparison Study – MICS-Asia)

October 22 – 23, 2001IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

IIASA

This project was developed in connection with:

A study of large scale environmental problems in East Asia, funded by the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI)

The China-MAP program, funded by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration) NASA.

IIASA

Results are published in:

Klimont, Z., Cofala, J., Schoepp, W., Amann, M., Streets, D.G., Ichikawa, Y., Fujita, S. (2001) Projections of SO2, NOx, NH3, and VOC Emissions in East Asia up to 2030. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, vol.130:193-198

Klimont, Z., Streets, D.G., Gupta, S., Cofala, J., Fu, L., Ichikawa, Y. (2002) Anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds in China. Atmospheric Environment (accepted for publication)

Klimont, Z. (2001) Current and Future Emissions of Ammonia in China. Proceedings of the 10th International Emission Inventory Conference “One Atmosphere, One Inventory, Many Challenges”, Denver, CO, April 30 – May 3rd, 2001. Paper available at: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/conference/ei10/index.html

TRACE-P…emission data sets available…

IIASA

Spatial* and temporal resolution

Japan - Prefectures aggregated into six regions

China - Provinces and megacities (incl. Hong-Kong)

Republic of Korea - provinces aggregated into four regions

Taiwan, ROC; Mongolia; DPR of Korea - country

Russia - six Southern Siberian provinces ‘Oblast’

* - results presented in 1x1 degree grid

Annual emissions- historical years 1990 and 1995

- projections for 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030

IIASA

Sectoral resolution

NOx - five major economic sectors, further split into 17

categories) and 17 types of fuel;

NH3 - 14 categories; additionally, for seven livestock

types emissions estimated at the ‘housing’ and ‘grazing’ stages.

NMVOC - six primary sectors, further split into 42 to 61 secondary sectors (fuel combustion related sectors distinguish additionally relevant fuel types);

IIASA

Methodology

where:

k,l,m,n - province, sector, fuel, abatement technology;

E(P) - emissions of pollutant P, i.e. NOx, NMVOC ;

A - activity rate;

ef - unabated emission factor;

- removal efficiency;

- maximum application rate, and

X - actual application rate of control technology n.

XefAPEn

nmlknmlknmlmlkmlkml

k ,,,,,,,,,,,, )1( )(

IIASA

Methodology (NH3)

where:

i,j,k,l,m - province, animal type, abatement, year, fertilizer type;

s - four stages, i.e. animal house, storage, application, grazing;

L - animal population [thousands head];

FC - fertilizer consumption [Gg N/year];

FP - fertilizer production [Gg N/year];

ef - emission factor [kg NH3/animal; kg NH3/Mg N-fert.produced);

nf - nitrogen loss per fertilizer [% of N content/100];

- removal efficiency;

X - implementation rate of the abatement technique.

OSFPefFCnfXefLNHEm

lmimilmimis

lkjiskisljikj

ljli

])14/17([])1([ )( ,,,,,,

4

1,,,,,,,,,,3

IIASA

Activity data: Energy and Traffic

Energy database: Based on the RAINS-Asia project

Traffic:• Total fuel consumption based on the vehicle ownership

and mileage forecasts (also verified against national and international statistics);

• Mode/fuel split derived from available statistical data and experts’ judgment;

• Newly developed forecast takes into account differences in future regional developments.

IIASA

Activity data: Industry and other VOC related

Data for 1990, 1995– distribution, processing and combustion of fuels linked to

energy database in RAINS-Asia;– industry: national and international yearbooks, industrial

statistics, surrogate statistics (problems with spatial distribution);

– domestic solvent use, paint use, dry cleaning, industrial glue application, printing, degreasing: expert estimates, comparison to Europe and US, spatial distribution based on surrogate statistics, e.g. population, vehicle ownership.

– missing data: pharmaceutical industry, parts of chemical industry.

IIASA

Activity data: Industry and other… continued

Projections:– distribution, processing and combustion of fuels linked to

energy projections in RAINS;– industry: changes in national and sectoral GDP as basis for

projections in number of industries (chemical, food and drink, wood preservation, other industrial solvent use, etc.);

– domestic solvent use (incl. paint), dry cleaning: related to population, GDP forecasts, changing consumption patterns;

– industrial paint use: linked to vehicle manufacturing and ownership forecasts, national and industrial GDP.

IIASA

Activity data: Agriculture

Statistical data for 1990-95 from national and international (e.g., FAO, IFA, OECD) yearbooks

Projections derived from agro-economic studies include assumptions on:

Future per capita consumption of milk, beef, pork, poultry, other meat and rates of fertilizer application;

The change in efficiency of production; The import-export balance of dairy products, meat, etc. Possible impact of the change of efficiency of production on emission

rates.

Spatial distribution derived from LUC project at IIASA and work of Li, Isherwood, Wang (1997)

IIASA

Emission factors and more

• Originate from national and international sources as well as expert judgement;

• Country, region and sector specific parameters taken into account (including climate conditions where appropriate);

• Autonomous improvement as well as changes in production efficiency considered.

IIASA

Comparison of emission coefficients(kg NH3/animal; %N loss for fertilizers)

Category IIASA,

Rains-Europe EEA, 1996 Asman, 1990 Bouwman

et.al., 1997 This study

Dairy cows 22 - 40 28.5 25.1 17.4 17.5 - 29.0 Other cattle 10 - 18 14.3 25.1 10.0 9.5 - 12.5 Pigs 3 - 7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 – 5 Laying hens 0.16 - 0.42 0.37 0.32 0.24 0.32 Broilers 0.14 - 0.23 0.28 0.32 0.24 0.18 Sheep a 1 - 3 1.34 1.9 1.2 0.8 - 1.2 Horses b 12.5 8 12.5 10.6 10.6 Camels - - - 12.9 12.9 Urea application 15 - 20 15 15 15/25 c 15/20 c

ABC application - - - 20/30 c 20/30 c

a - includes goats b - includes mules and asses c - loss assumed for temperate and tropical zones, respectively

IIASA

Inventories and scenarios

Emissions estimated for 1990 and 1995 - where applicable, including controls;

Long-term developments:– No further controls (NFC) - only existing

legislation;– Current legislation (CLE) - taking into account

current and forthcoming legislation;– Preliminary BAT scenario for ammonia.

IIASA

Current legislation scenario (CLE)

Stationary sources (NOx)– Japan - SCR on LCP and combustion modifications on other

sources; Other countries, except China, Mongolia and Korea, DPR - combustion modifications

Stationary sources (NMVOC)– Japan, Taiwan, Korea and HK- chemical industry, refineries, depots

and gasoline stations: control of evaporative losses; paint use: good housekeeping and substitution; Other countries – no controls

Traffic (NOx, NMVOC)– Japan, HK - Euro-3; Taiwan, Korea - Euro-2; China - Euro-1 (2001)

and Euro-2 (2006); Mongolia and Korea, DPR - no control; also Japan, Taiwan, Korea and HK– evaporative controls and oxidation catalysts

IIASA

Emissions of air pollutants in East Asia (106 tons)

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

mil

lion

ton

s

NOx NH3* NMVOC

1990

1995

2030-NFC

2030-CLE

* For 2030, NFC and a hypothetical BAT scenario

IIASA

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (kt NOx, by country)

Country 1990 1995 2030 (CLE)

China 7231 9645 14225Japan 1867 2121 2025Korea, DPR of 448 300 1457Korea, Rep. of 832 1320 2491Mongolia 31 25 78Taiwan, ROC 410 521 867

Total 10818 13933 21143

IIASA

Emissions of ammonia (kt NH3, by country)

Country 1990 1995 2030 2030-BAT

China 9658 11738 19866 8253Japan 369 355 331 243Korea, DPR of 162 73 300 136Korea, Rep. of 137 168 235 165Mongolia 88 96 144 124Taiwan, ROC 134 154 165 92

Total 10549 12585 21041 9013

IIASA

Emissions of NOx in East Asia(Mt NOx, by sector)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 1995 2030-NFC 2030-CLE

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Power plants

Industry

Transport

Domestic

Total

TotalSectoral

IIASA

A NOx projection for East Asia

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030-CLE

kilo

tons

Power plants Industry Transport Domestic Removed through technology

IIASA

Emissions of NOx from transport in East Asia(Mt NOx, by category)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2030-NFC 2030-CLE

mil

lio

n t

on

s

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Cars

HDT

Other

Total

IIASA

Emissions of ammonia(Mt NH3)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 1995 2030-Base 2030-BAT

0

5

10

15

20

25

Cattle

Pigs

Poultry

Fertilizer use

Other

Total

IIASA

NH3 emission structure in China and other regions in 1990

IIASA

Non-agricultural sources of NH3 in Asia

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Asia'90 Asia'30 China'90 China'30 Japan'90 Japan'30 Kanto'90 Kanto'30

Agriculture Other non-agricultural Transport

IIASA

Population density(106 capita/grid, data for 1990-95)

IIASA

Spatial distribution of NOx emissions(kt NOx /grid)

1995 2030 (CLE)

108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152 156 160

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

0.0 10.0 20.0 50.0 100.0 250.0 500.0 750.0

kt/ grid

108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152 156 160

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

0.0 10.0 20.0 50.0 100.0 250.0 500.0 750.0

kt/ grid

IIASA

Spatial distribution of VOC emissions (kt VOC /grid)

1995 2030(CLE)

108 111 114 117 120 123 126 129 132 135 138 141 144 147 150 18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

0.0 10.0 30.0 50.0 75.0 150.0 300.0 500.0

kt/ grid

108 111 114 117 120 123 126 129 132 135 138 141 144 147 150 18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

0.0 10.0 30.0 50.0 75.0 150.0 300.0 500.0

kt/ grid

IIASA

Spatial distribution of livestock in East Asia (103 head /grid; data for 1990-1993)

108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152 156 160

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

0 100 250 500 750 1000 2500 10000

Unit:

108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152 156 160

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

0 100 250 500 750 1000 2500 5000

Unit:

Pigs Large animals

IIASA

Spatial distribution of NH3 emissions

(kt NH3 /grid)

108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152 156 160

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

0.0 5.0 15.0 30.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 250.0

Unit:

1995 2030

108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152 156 160

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

0.0 5.0 15.0 30.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 250.0

Unit: kt/grid

IIASA

Emissions of volatile organic compounds in East

Asia (kt VOC, by country)

Country 1990 1995 2030 (CLE)

China 11402 13105 20739Japan 2157 2027 1762Korea, DPR of 148 114 431Korea, Rep. of 849 1183 1449Mongolia 16 14 69Taiwan, ROC 647 683 609

Total 15219 17126 25060

IIASA

Emissions of VOC in East Asia(Mt NMVOC)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 1995 2030-NFC 2030-CLE0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Transport

Fuel processing & distribution

Solvent use

Chemical industry

Combustion (industry, residential)

Other

Total

IIASA

Emissions of NMVOC from transport in East Asia(Mt NMVOC, by category)

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 1995 2030-NFC 2030-CLE

mil

lio

n t

ons

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Cars

HDT

Other

Total

IIASA

Structure of NMVOC emissions in 1995 for selected countries in East Asia

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

China J apan Korea, Rep of

Other

Combustion

Chemical Industry

Solvent use

Fuel proc.& distr.

Transport

IIASA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

China'95 China'20 Japan'95 Japan'20 UK'90 UK'10 Czech R.'90 Czech R.'10

Stationary combustion Fossil fuel proc. & distribution Chemical industrySolvent use (including paint use) Transport Other

Structure of VOC emissionsfor selected countries

IIASA

Per capita VOC emission rates in selected countries, (kg/capita)

Region 1990 1995 2020 populationgrowth

China 9.7 10.8 12.7 + 25 %

Japan 17.4 16.1 14.1 0 %

Korea, Rep. of 19.6 26.5 26.5 + 19 %

Taiwan, ROC 31.7 32.1 27.3 + 12 %

Western Europe 20 - 50 14-25 ~ 0 %

Eastern Europe ~ 10/25-30 ~10/~20 ~ 0 %

IIASA

Anthropogenic NMVOC projection for East Asia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

mill

ion

tons

Stationary combustion Fossil fuel proc. & distribution Solvent use

Transport Other Avoided through technology

IIASA

Comparison of Chinese sectoral VOC emissions for 1995, (example)

Source Tonooka et al., 2001 This study

Solvent use (excl. paint) 199 761

Paint use 1017 1031

Fossil fuel processing & distribution 258 707

Transport 1612 3567

Stationary combustion a 10794 6398

Other - 521

Total 13880 13120

a includes also open field burning

IIASA

Ratio of NOx to VOC emissions in East Asia

(kt NOx / kt VOC)

1995 2030(CLE)

108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

0.00 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 10.00

NOx/ VOC ratio

108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

0.00 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 10.00

NOx/ VOC ratio

IIASA

Comparison of NOx estimates for 1990

Source

Region Estimate (Mt NOx)

Higashino, Tonooka, Yanagisawa, Ikeda (1996)

China Japan East Asia

6.7 1.6 10.1

Xue Zhigang, et al. (1999) China

8.4

NISTEP, 1991 China

7.4

Aaredenne et al., 1997 China East Asia

8.3 13.0

Akimoto,1996 China East Asia

8.1 12.2

This study China Japan East Asia

7.2 1.9 10.8

IIASA

Comparison of VOC and NH3 estimates for 1990

Source

Region Estimate (Mt)

Piccot et al., 1992 [VOC] China Japan

5.3 3.9

Oliver et al., 1996 [VOC] China+ 17.7

Tonooka et al., 2001 [VOC] China (est. for 1994-95) Japan (est. for 1993)

13.9 2.0

This study [VOC] China Japan East Asia

11.4 2.2 15.2

Zhao, Wang, 1994 [NH3] China

Japan East Asia

10.9 [13.6] 0.38 [0.7] 11.5 [14.8]

Bouwman and Hoek, 1997 [NH3]

East Asia

9.8

This study [NH3] China Japan East Asia

9.7 0.37 10.5

IIASA

Conclusions

• Emissions of NOx and NH3 are projected to double by 2030 (compared to 1990) while anthropogenic NMVOC increase by 65%, in spite of assumed legislation and improvements in production efficiency.

• Although traffic density is projected to grow very fast, the increase in emissions is successfully slowed down by introduced legislation (transport remains an important source);

• Asian (China) emissions of NMVOC characterized by a high proportion originating from biomass burning;

• Current structure of NH3 emissions differs from that of Europe;• Several urban areas where emissions increase by a factor of two to

three by 2030;• Lack of NMVOC legislation (esp. China) in industry results in high

growth of emissions from chemical industry and solvent use, making these sectors the major source in 2030;

IIASA

Necessary improvements

Filling in gaps in historical data; Locally validated emission factors (including VOC

speciation); Spatial (provincial and lower level) distribution of

activities in the past and analysis of the possible future developments, e.g., incorporation of the land use data in order to better estimate the patterns of fertilizer application;

Details on industrial activities and their mid- and long-term projections;

Estimation of ammonia emissions from non-agricultural sources.