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1October 2010

THORPEX report to the WGNE

David Burridge

THORPEX IPO

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October 2010

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3October 2010

THORPEX – WGNE collaborationi. Atmospheric composition particularly the inclusion of aerosol in NWP systems is currently being discussed by the WGNE and WWRP efforts should await the outcome of this discussionii. ……iii. ….. iv. It was agreed that WWRP/THORPEX should be involved in the model development survey and the follow-up – THORPEX should consider what support can be given by the PDP Working Groupv. It was agreed that the PDP Working Group would be involved in the WGNE in the Parametrization Workshopvi. It was recommended that the planned YOTC science meetings should be broadened; in addition, a “synoptic” summary of the tropical events/weather during the YOTC “year” should be prepared

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4October 2010

THORPEX – WGNE collaboration

vii. The GEWEX and THORPEX support for HyMeX should be coordinated as should the support, where appropriate, for T-NAWDEXviii. The development of HEPEX should be monitoredix. The WGNE and the PDP Working Group should establish cross-representation on each group; the PDP Working Group should “write-up” a diagnostic work-programme in collaboration with the WGNEx. …..xi. Communications between the groups should be improved

Scientific Leadership of THORPEX– Reports to/receives advice from WWRPJSC; receives advice from WGNE.

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THORPEX Working Groups

Since 31 January 2010, the three THORPEX Working Groups have met: GIFS TIGGE Working Group Eighth Meeting; WMO, Geneva (22-24 February 2010)THORPEX ICSC PDP Working Group Third Meeting; ETH, Zurich (5-7 July 2010) – this meeting was followed by a Workshop on “Diagnosis of Model Errors” (7-9 July 2010) THORPEX ICSC DAOS Working Group Third Meeting; University of Québec at Montréal (UQAM) Montréal (8-9 July 2010)

5October 2010

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DAOS WG - IMPACT OF TARGETED OBSERVATIONS

There is a consensus that extra-tropical targeted data are about 2-3 times more valuable than the same number of observations deployed randomly.

Targeted observations aimed at improving forecasts of tropical cyclone track have provided demonstrable positive impact. The impact of targeted observations aimed at improving forecasts of extra-tropical storms is less clear to date.

Sharan Majumdar to prepare a draft of the paper during the next few months - The target should be for a definitive draft agreed by the Working Group for the next ICSC meeting..

11October 2010

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DAOS WG - need for additional in-DAOS WG - need for additional in-situ observationssitu observations

There is increasing evidence based upon results from A-TREC, TPARC, AMMA (in the form of OSEs, adjoint-based observation impact studies, and analysis uncertainty estimates) to recommend, if feasible, increases in observations from:

Commercial aircraft over the N. Pacific, N. Atlantic, and the S. Hemisphere in general.

Additional soundings from certain coastal radiosondes, including those in eastern Siberia, and perhaps selected stations in polar regions, Africa, and South America.  

to improve NWP forecasts in the 2-5 day timeframe.

12October 2010

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Winter reconnaissance flights

Generally speaking it was found that 70% of forecasts were improved with typically a 10-20% reduction in forecast error for these cases of high impact weather. This equated to a 12 hour gain in prediction skill. It was also found that WSR data has 2.7 times more impact per observation than an observation from a random area

During its July meeting the Working Group also gave further advice to NOAA scientists on the re-runs that will be undertaken as a part of the re-evaluation of the number of the past US Winter Storms Reconnaissance campaigns.

13October 2010

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WWRP/JSC 3

The IPY-THORPEX Cluster10 individual projects

(see WMO Bulletin Oct. 2007)

The objectives of the IPY-THORPEX Cluster are:

Explore use of satellite data and optimised observations to improve high impact weather forecasts

Better understand physical/dynamical processes in polar regions

Achieve a better understanding of small scale weather phenomena

Utilise improved forecasts to the benefit of society, the economy and the environment

1414October 2010

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WWRP/JSC 3

• GFDex overview edition of Bull. Amer. Met. Soc

•Quarterly Journal of the RMetS

1515October 2010

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WWRP/JSC 3

Conclusions (targeted obs)

Four targeted observing flights were conducted during GFDex, around southern Greenland and Iceland

Targeted sonde data was used by the data assimilation system to modify the background state and influence the forecast via analysis increments

The forecast improvement is small compared to the forecast error for the same period; targeted observations have both improved and degraded the forecast

The 1st March case showed that modification of the upper-level PV anomaly by the inclusion of targeted sonde data led to forecast improvement propagating into the Scandinavian verification region with a developing polar low

1616October 2010

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WWRP/JSC 3

The International Project ConcordiasiThe International Project Concordiasi

1717October 2010

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WWRP/JSC 3

Major goals

Objectives Concordiasi To improve the assimilation of satellite data over the southern

polar region, with an emphasis on the data provided by the new IASI sounder.

To improve understanding of the stratospheric ozone budget through examination of the interaction of ozone observations at flight level and stratospheric clouds, together with the improved characterization of the polar vortex.

To evaluate the impact of better analyses and forecasts on ozone profile simulations in chemical transport models.

To evaluate the impact of the large scale improvements on local analyses and forecasts at Concordia.

To provide recommendations on the design of the global observing system over the southern polar region by determining the extent to which additional observations over Antarctica can improve the prediction of high impact weather over lower latitudes.

1818October 2010

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WWRP/JSC 3

IPY Legacy

Data for improving physical parameterization in NWP models, -clouds, microphysics, surf fluxes

Improved assimilation techniques for high latitudes with emphasis on satellites data

Increased understanding on the effect of the use of ensemble simulations for high latitudes

Increased understanding on the effect of targeting in high latitudes

Increased understanding of dynamics of high latitude, high impact weather phenomena

Demonstration of the effect of new instrumentsDemonstration of the effect of increased Arctic and

Antarctic observations for local and extra-tropical NWP forecasting

1919October 2010

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PDP Working Group Activities

Collaboration with the WGNE formalizedPDP summer school in Banff (10 to 15 July, 2011)Workshop on stochastic parametrizationPDP and WGNE Workshop recommendations

20October 2010

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 The key area for collaboration was seen as model error and model development and the ICSC and the WGNE agreed that there should cross-representation between the PDP Working Group and the WGNE.

To this end, Thomas Jung would represent the PDP Working Group on the WGNE and Andy Brown would represent the WGNE on the PDP Working Group.

One of the first results of this collaboration was the joint organisation of the PDP/WGNE Workshop on Model Errors (7-9 July, 2010).

21October 2010

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ana +3.5

fc +3.5

ana +5

fc +5

T850 and SLPWarm conveyor belts & forecast busts

23October 2010

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T-NAWDEX

THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment

Proposed at European THORPEX meeting by PDP Working Group in 2006

Strong interest from UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, Norway, Canada, USA, ...

Science focus on diabatic effects on North Atlantic weather systems (dynamics and predictive skill)

Funding (so far) mainly on national level:- UK: project DIAMET (Vaughan, Methven, Parker, Renfrew et al.)- Germany: HALO THORPEX demo mission (Dörnbrack et al.)- Germany: PANDOWAE research group (Jones et al.)- Switzerland: ETH contribution (Wernli et al.)

24October 2010

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RPHALO - High Altitude and Long Range Research

Aircraft

Ob

Key specifications:- max. altitude more than 15 km

- range well above 10000 km or more than 10 flight hours- maximum payload of 3 tons

Demo-Mission HALO-THORPEX as nucleus forT-NAWDEX field phase in conjunction with HyMeX

25October 2010

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26October 2010

THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes Working Group and WGNE

Workshop“Diagnosis of Model Errors”ETH, Zurich - 7 to 9 July 2010

Relevant dynamical and physical processesChallenges, opportunities and strategies for model developmentDiagnostic techniques

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27October 2010

Datasets

The YOTC datasets (http://www.ucar.edu/yotc/data.html). Can be used to carry out much more process-oriented research. ECMWF reanalysis activities, 10-day hindcasts (ERA-40) (ERA-Interim). Data to study flow-dependence of forecast error; identify source of so-called forecast busts).......

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28October 2010

Recommendations and follow-on activities The results presented in the workshop showed

(i) state-of-the-art models still suffer from substantial errors and(ii) that diagnostic work has the potential to inform model developers about model problems at the process level and therefore provide information necessary to guide model development.

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29October 2010

It was decided to start joint projects to look more closely at two phenomena

Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM): The ISM is a large-scale phenomenon which is poorly handled by most models. The monsoon problem is an ideal test case to demonstrate that the use of different diagnostic techniques can provide information that leads to model improvements. It was appreciated that this project could profit from other activities within YOTC and the MJO/ ISM field experiment planned for 2011(CINDY/DYNAMO - coordinated by University of Miami).Next steps: The project will start by building on the existing collaboration between ECMWF and the MetOffice.For the future it is planned to invite other centres through WGNE. Progress will be reported in future meetings (e.g. PDP, WGNE and suitable conferences).

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30October 2010

It was decided to start joint projects to look more closely at two phenomena

Cyclonic Systems (CS): What makes CS an attractive choice is that physics-dynamics interactions are crucial and that CS are a major source of severe weather.Next steps:Considerable work is in progress in refining existing diagnostic techniques to understand CS and how they are represented in models.Compile the latest results and to kick-start the project by giving a joint presentation entitled Diagnosis of Cyclonic Systems at the Cyclone Workshop, which will be held in March 27 - April 1 2011. This project has clear links to the activities planned in T-NAWDEX.

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GEOTHORPEX continues to support the development of the weather element of the GEOSS. There are three main areas of activity

TIGGE and the development of a Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) (WE-06-03)THORPEX Africa (WE-09-01b)Towards Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water and Environmental Prediction (CL-09-01a); in this Task the main activity at present is YOTC; however, it is hoped that the planned sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction and polar projects will be included in due course.

These three Tasks represent the most significant GEO weather activities. Efforts continue to be made working through GEO to improve funding levels and resources for these initiatives. Most recently a European Union FP7 Call has been issued which refers directly to the further development of TIGGE and the GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI). Plans are being made to form a consortium to respond to this Call to secure significant external funding for future TIGGE activities

31October 2010

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October 2010

Pieter Brueghel the Elder

WWRP GLOBAL PREDICTION RESEARCH

First source of inspirationTower of Babel

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October 2010 34CBSXIV March 2009

HYMEX: Main Scientific Topics

Better understanding of the intense events: processes and contribution to the trend

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ECMWF DatabaseMay ‘08 – Apr ’10

(relevant not just to YOTC)

Research Focus MJO & Convectively Coupled

Equatorial WavesITCZ, Easterly Waves,TCsTrop-ExtraTrop Interaction

Monsoon Intraseasonal VariabilityDiurnal Cycle

International Collaboration and

Integration of Models and

Observations 35October 2010

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October 2010

CASXV New projects

Polar Prediction project – “The Commission concurred with the Executive Council Panel of Experts on Polar Observations, Research and Services on the requirement for effective collaboration and therefore recommended that any efforts to develop a future prediction system include outcomes from the IPY-THORPEX cluster of projects and from the planned THORPEX Legacy Project”

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction – “….the Commission requested the JSCs of the WWRP and the WCRP and also the THORPEX ICSC to set up an appropriate collaborative structure to carry out an international research initiative on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. It recommended that this is closely coordinated with the present existing CBS infrastructure for long-range forecasting (with centres producing long-range forecasts and regional climate centres) and with the future developments in WMO climate service delivery and the Global Framework for Climate Services called for in the High-Level Declaration of WCC-3.”

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WORKSHOPSPolar Prediction (Oslo, 6 to 8 October, 2010)

It is expected that the main outcome of the Oslo workshop will be the design of a WMO THORPEX Polar Prediction Research Project that provides an efficient framework for co-operative international research and development efforts to improve operational weather and environmental prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions and facilitate climate predictions up to a season.

Seasonal Prediction (Exeter, 1 to 3 December, 2010)

To identify high-priority research topics and demonstration projects and to develop recommendations for the establishment of an international research project.

38October 2010

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39October 2010

An element of the WWRPAn element of the WWRP

Workshop“Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction”

Met Office, Exeter –1 to 3 December 2010The main goals of this Workshop are to establish current capabilities in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction, to identify high-priority research topics and demonstration projects and to develop recommendations for the establishment of an international research project – to be written up by David Anderson. Focus 1-90 days.

Scene settingOperational systems (a flavour)Major scientific modelling problems and their diagnosisData assimilation and EPSData bases and observationsSocietal and economic benefits

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40October 2010

An element of the WWRPAn element of the WWRP

Workshop“Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction”

Met Office, Exeter –1 to 3 December 2010

Major scientific modelling problems and their diagnosis

The Atlantic – the NAO, AO and the MJOTropical modes in the Indian and Pacific OceansEl Nino and its global tele-connectionsBlocking and regime transitionsStratospheric influences on the troposphereLand surface processes and land-atmosphere interactions

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41October 2010

An element of the WWRPAn element of the WWRP

Workshop“Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction”

Met Office, Exeter –1 to 3 December 2010Data assimilation and EPSCoupled data assimilationEnsemble data assimilation Monthly forecasting with ensemblesRepresenting model uncertainty on seasonal time scalesData bases and observationsTIGGEThe CHFPThe YOTC data basesSocietal and economic benefitsAn African demonstration project (AMMA)A South American demonstration projectA South Asian demonstration projectAn Insurance project

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October 2010

Jan Bruegel the Younger

WWRP GLOBAL PREDICTION RESEARCH

Second source of inspiration

Joint activity supported by WWRP, THORPEX, and WCRP/WGNE ?Steering Group? (size?)Implementation Plan? - utilizing the existing groups

Sub-projects ...........?Modus Operandi – workshops; science meetings ............?Next steps?

PARADISE

GLOBAL PREDICTION

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