THORPEX/NCEP Update
description
Transcript of THORPEX/NCEP Update
THORPEX/NCEP Update
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Director, NCEP
September 1, 2004
“Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”
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Overview
• THORPEX Plans: Status
• NCEP Update – Focus on THORPEX
– Models
– Ensembles
– JCSDA
– Test Beds
• Summary
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THORPEX Plans
• Science Plan
– Accepted by International Core Steering Committee in December ’03
– Led by Mel Shapiro and Alan Thorpe
• North American Plan
– Ongoing
– U.S. rep is David Parsons
– Interagency and international
• NOAA Plan
– First draft complete
– Led by Zoltan Toth; involves NOAA, NCAR, NASA, DoD/NRL, university participants, private sector
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THORPEX Plans (cont.)
• THORPEX Implementation Plan (TIP)
– Ongoing international effort
– Led by David Rogers
– Involves Zoltan Toth, David Parsons and Mel Shapiro from U.S.
– Next meeting in Beijing (September ‘04)
– Big Items
• International ensemble forecast system
• Connection with AMMA (05-07)
• Connection with International Polar Year (07-08) field program
• Connection with GEOSS
NOAA SERVICE GOAL: ACCELERATE IMPROVEMENTS IN 3-14 DAY FORECASTSNOAA SERVICE GOAL: ACCELERATE IMPROVEMENTS IN 3-14 DAY FORECASTS
NOAA SCIENCE OBJECTIVE: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESSNOAA SCIENCE OBJECTIVE: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS
NEW NWP
Sub-systems developed in coordination
End-to-end forecast process
Strong feedback among componentsTwo-way interaction Error/uncertainty accounted for
TRADITIONAL NWP
Each discipline developed on its own
Disjoint steps in forecast process
Little or no feedback
One-way flow of information
Uncertainty in process ignored
INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE
SOCIOEC
SYSTEM
SOCIOEC
SYSTEM
CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES
TIP – “OBSERVING SYSTEM” TIP – “DATA ASSIMILATION…”
TIP – “PREDICTABILITY &DYNAMICAL PROCESSES”
TIP – “SOCIAL & ECONOMICAPPLICATIONS”
TIP
NTSIP
DIRECT LINK BETWEEN NOAA THORPEX SCIENCE AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (NTSIP) AND
THORPEX INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE PLAN & THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (TIP)
THORPEX GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE(TIGGE)
SOCIOEC
SYSTEM
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NTEC MEMBERSJ. Hayes, D-OST/NWS
J. Kimpel, OAR
M. Colton, D-ORA/NESDIS
NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART - LINKS
CH
AIR
L. Ucce
llini, D
-NC
EP/N
WS
CH
AIR
Z. T
oth
, EM
C/N
CEP
NOAA SeniorManagement
NOAA LineOffices
NOAA Res. Labs:AL, CDC, ETL, FSL, ORA
US
WR
PC
o-C
hairs:
L. Ucce
llini &
T. K
illeen
ICS
C, IP
OC
hair: M
. Bela
nd
US R
ep.: L. U
ccellin
i
NA
SS
CC
o-C
hairs :
D. P
arso
ns &
P. G
auth
ier
ISS
CC
o-C
hairs:
M. S
hapiro
& A
. Thorp
e
NOAA Joint Inst.:JCSDA, CIMMS, SIP
NTSIC MEMBERS
Obs. Systems: J. Daniels (ORA), D. Emmitt (SWA), C. Velden (U. Wisc/SIMMS)
Data Assim: C. Bishop (NRL), L.-P. Riishojgaard (NASA/JCSDA)
Forecasting: J. Hansen (MIT), G. Kiladis (AL), S. Koch (FSL), J. Whitaker/T. Hamill (CDC)
SA Applications: R. Morss (NCAR), M. Ralph (ETL)
NWS-NCEP Operational ImplementationsF. Toepfer
International Forecasting ActivitiesNOAA THORPEX Administrative Assistant
STAFF: Z. Toth, NTSIC ChairM. Ralph & F. Toepfer, PPBES
Consistent with D. Rogers Memo of
7/9/2003, establishing NTEC & NTSIC
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NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES
Based on NOAA THORPEX Science & Implementation Plan
Coordinated with US/NA/International activities - TIP
• ONGOING APPLIED RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
• PEER REVIEWED RESEARCH GRANT PROGRAM *
• TRANSITION FROM RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS*
• REAL TIME TESTING (DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS)*
• INFRASTRUCTURE*
• MANAGEMENT
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NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIESPEER-REVIEWED RESEARCH GRANT PROGRAM:
Funded through NOAA THORPEX AOIndividual research studiesCollaborative projectsBalanced among 4 major research areas
CURRENT STATUS:12 grants distributed in competitive NOAA THORPEX 2004 AO process1) Observing System: 1 satellite & 1 in-situ study
2) Data Assimilation: Ensemble-based DA inter-comparison project(4 studies, CDC, UM, NCAR, NRL, CS)
Adaptive obs (1 study)3) Forecast System: Model errors & ensembles (2 studies)
Adaptive modeling procedures (1 study)4) Socioeconomic Applic.: 1 study (value of weather forecasts)Cross-cutting Activities: 1 study (OSSE method development)
PLAN: Initiate new THORPEX projects through NOAA Grants ProgramAreas with special need: Model errors in DA & ensemble forecasting
Socioeconomic forecast applications (including stat. post-processing)
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NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES
TRANSITION FROM RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS
Establish link with operations for each research study/projectProvide partner within NOAA for path to operations
Communicate operational requirementsProvide data/software access/supportOffer science consultation/adviceFacilitate collaboration/coordination among studies / within projectsPreferred form of work is through collaborative projects
Establish model errors & ensemble forecasting project?
Fund through set-aside fraction of research grant amount (20-33% of grants)
Currently only limited resources (100k for ATREC-related work in FY04)Need to expand in order to link with all research grant studies/projects
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NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES
REAL TIME TESTING (DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS)
GOAL: Test, demonstrate, and evaluate the new forecast process withintegrated, adaptive, and user controlled elements
TYPES OF PROJECTS (in hierarchical order):THORPEX Observing System Tests (TOST) Limited scope, focus on observing
systemTHORPEX Regional Campaigns (TREC) Test integrated forecast processTHORPEX Demonstration Projects As TREC but linked with other
programsTHORPEX Global Campaign Major demonstration near end of program
EXAMPLES:AMMA (2005-07) Life cycle of tropical storms
2006, additional observations; test impact of data on NWP skill (low/mod. cost)
IPY (2007-09) Atmosph. component of IPY, obs. system test, polar-extratropical links
06/07 test new obs platforms (lower cost); 07/08 full demo period, higher cost
Olympics (’08,etc) Emphasis on social/economic applicationsGEOSS (10yrs) Atmosph. component in GEOSS, prototype for integrated use of
data
NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIESINFRASTRUCTUREOperational Test Center (OTC; planned jointly with JCSDA)
Ensure access of researchers to operational forecast environmenta) Needed to support research grant program (research to operations transition)b) Leverage off JCSDA Test Facility (with broader focus, incl. forecasting/applications beyond DA)
Jointly funded with JCSDA - Basic funding plus contributions from research grants
c) Provide computer facilities (on backup computer?), operatnl software, & technical supportd) Accessible through THORPEX & other peer reviewed grant programs
THORPEX Global Ensemble Prediction System (TIGGE or TGEPS)Expand from successful implementation of NAEFS to include UK Metoffice for creation of multinational component of future TGEPSBasic forecast support for demonstration projects, socio-economic applications, etcNorth American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS, jointly with Canadians)
THORPEX Data Base (TDB)Establish THORPEX data base for national/international research
Store observational, numerical analysis, forecast, and application dataa) Establish & provide access to archive of operational and research data bases (NOMAD)b) Data types: Observations, re-analysis, ensemble, applications, demo projects, etcc) Funding through basic support plus contributions from research grants
TelecommunicationsTransfer huge data sets for research & demo projects - GLORIAD
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BUDGET HISTORY
FY02 – 150k – all from USWRP funds 50K: Aerosonde test 100K: Partial support for Shapiro as ISSC co-Chair
FY03 – 1.04M – all from USWRP funds 242K: Shapiro support (incl travel) and obs. focal point (Schlatter) 250K: Societal Impact Program (NCAR) 200K: THORPEX IPO and the IOC (150K+50K) 150K: Lenny Smith proposal on utilities' use of probabilistic forecasts 100K: To AOC for NA TRec
FY04 – 2.4M – 1.2M from THORPEX, 1.2M from USWRP funds1150K: THORPEX proposals 206K: Shapiro salary (171k) and travel (35k)320K: NCAR Collaborative Program on the Soc. Impacts and Economic Benefits of Weather Info220K: THORPEX IPO and IOC (170K+50K) – US Rep. to ICSC does not agree with this allocation250K: To AOC for NA TRec 100K To NCEP for NA TRec analysis
BUDGET RECOMMENDATIONS – FY05FY05 THORPEX Funding level (tentative) – $1.3 from FY04, plus $1M from FY05 increase
1) Research Grant Program:a) Continue funding 11 of 12 proposals from FY04 $1050k^ (-75k)b) Support unsolicited research (ens.-based DA, forecast appls, etc) $300k *
2) Transition from Research to Operationsa) Interface with NWP research grant studies (1 contractor at EMC) $100k *Subtotal
$1.45M
3) Infrastructure: a) Operational Test Center (1 contractor at JCSDA) $100k *b) NAEFS/TIGGE (2 contractors at NCEP) $200k^ (-100k)c) THORPEX Data Base support (ETL/NCAR?) $100k *Subtotal
$400k
4) Management:a) WMO Trust Fund / IPO (partial support) $150kb) Co-Chair of ISSC (M. Shapiro, partial support) $150k^ (-75k)c) Overhead (NOAA THORPEX management, travel, etc) $150k *Subtotal
$450kTOTAL
$2.3NOTES:1) 300k not enough for viable AO:
200k supplemental funds would make it possible to issue new AOwith emphasis on model errors & socioeconomic applications
2) If 1M increase is cut: Drop activities with * Reduce funding level for ^ with amount in
parenthesis
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THORPEX Linkages
• Developing Linkages to the IPY
– 07/08 field program (NA winter)
– IPY focus on poles
– THORPEX focus on tropics and middle latitudes
– Hypotheses being developed related to forecast sensitivity to polar regions and/or Pacific Ocean and/or tropics
• Mapping into GEOSS
– Ongoing – THORPEX components (observations, data assimilation, modeling) map right into GEOSS
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NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES
ONGOING APPLIED RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT:
Funded through base & other projects (not through THORPEX)
THORPEX needs to build stronger links with these for full mutual benefit
Observing System: ETL, NESDIS/ORA, FSL, AL; Link w. GEOSS
Data Assimilation: JCSDA, EMC, CDC, FSL
Forecast System: EMC, FSL, CDC, AL (Environmental Modeling Program)
Socioeconomic Applications: ETL, CDC, SIP (Collabor. w. NCAR), EMC
Cross-cutting Activities: Link with NAEFS, IPY, EMC, ETL, EM
NCEP Update
• WRF implementation
– NCEP running test with CMI and 2 dynamic cores
– IOC for WRF CMI with the NMM by end of Sept, 2004
Focus on THORPEX-related Items
NCEP Update
• ESMF Status
– Have successfully coupled NCEP global analysis with NCAR-NASA fvCAM using ESMF
– Will couple GFS with GFDL MOM4 ocean model using ESMF by end of 2004
Focus on THORPEX-related Items
NCEP Update
• North American Ensemble Forecast System
– Effort to leverage international resources to increase number of ensemble members
– Canada and U.S. to share global ensemble runs
– IOC in September to consist of 40 NCEP runs (10 runs x 4/day) and 16 Canadian runs (eventually will expand to 32) for a total of 56
– First step in a 3 year effort
– Will include output from the UK Met Office within 18 months
Focus on THORPEX-related Items
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The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) (to be implemented August 24, 2004)
1. Atmospheric component Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03) T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical Recent upgrades in model physics
Solar radiation (Hou, 1996) cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998) gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995) cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997)
2. Oceanic component GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998) 1/3 in tropics; 1 in extratropics; 40 layers Quasi-global domain (74S to 64N) Free surface
3. Coupled model Once-a-day coupling Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology
CompositeComposite
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Most Recent CFS
Latest run shows a more moderate warming
Latest CPC Forecast: weak El Nino conditions are expected to develop within the next three months
NCEP Update
• Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationJoint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
Focus on THORPEX-related Items
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JCSDA Partners
NASA/Goddard
Global Modeling & Assimilation Office
NOAA/NESDIS
Office of Research &
Applications
NOAA/OAR
Office of Weather and Air Quality
NOAA/NCEP
Environmental
Modeling Center
US Navy
Oceanographer of the Navy,Office of Naval Research (NRL)
US Air Force
AF Director of WeatherAF Weather Agency
PARTNERS
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Organizational Structure NASA NOAA DOD
Joint Oversight Board of Directors:NOAA NCEP: L. Uccellini (Chair)
Goddard ESD : F. EinaudiNOAA ORA: M. ColtonNOAA OAR: J. Gaynor
Navy: S. Chang, R. McCoyUSAF: J. Lanicci, M. Farrar
Joint Center StaffCenter Director: John LeMarshall
Executive Directors: Stephen Lord - NWSFuzhong Weng - NESDIS
L. P. Riishogjaard – NASAPat Phoebus - NRLTechnical Liaisons:
DAO – D. DeeEMC – J. Derber
GMAO – M. RieneckerOAR – A. GasiewskiORA – D. TarpleyNavy – N. Baker
USAF – M. McAteeProgram Support: Ada Armstrong
George Ohring (NESDIS)
AdvisoryPanel
Rotating Chair
ScienceSteering
Committee
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JCSDA Road Map (2002 - 2010)
Improved JCSDA data assimilation science
2002 2004 2007 2008 2009 2005
OK
Deficiency
2003
Advanced JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model,Advanced data thinning techniques
Sci
ence
Ad
van
ce
By 2010, a numerical weather prediction community will be empowered to effectively assimilate increasing amounts of
advanced satellite observations
2010
AMSU, HIRS, SSM/I, Quikscat,
AVHRR, TMI, GOES assimilated
AIRS, ATMS, CrIS, VIIRS, IASI, SSM/IS, AMSR, more products assimilated
Pre-JCSDA data assimilation science
Radiative transfer model, OPTRAN, ocean microwave emissivity, microwave land emissivity model, and GFS data assimilation system were developed
The radiances of satellite sounding channels were assimilated into EMC global model under only clear atmospheric conditions. Some satellite surface products (SST, GVI and snow cover, wind) were used in EMC models
A beta version of JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model (CRTM) transfer model will be developed, including non-raining clouds, snow and sea ice surface conditions
The radiances from advanced sounders will be used. Cloudy radiances will be tested under rain-free atmospheres, and more products (ozone, water vapor winds) are assimilated
NPOESS sensors ( CMIS, ATMS…) GOES-R
The CRTM includes scattering & polarization from cloud, precip and surface
The radiances can be assimilated under all conditions with the state-of-the science NWP models
Resources:
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• JCSDA is funding 18 extramural research projects to develop the state of-the-art satellite data assimilation system (e.g. uses of cloudy radiances from advanced satellite instruments, uses of satellite snow and vegetation products)
• Preparation for uses of advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI/AMSU/HSB), DMSP (SSM/IS) and EOS (Aqua AIRS, AMSR-E)
• NCEP global data assimilation system implemented into NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) forecast system
• JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model
• Snow and sea ice emissivity models for improving uses of satellite microwave sounding data over high latitudes
• Impact studies of POES AMSU, EOS AIRS, DMSP SSMIS, MODIS and COSMIC on NWP through EMC parallel experiments
JCSDA FY03-04 Major Projects
Recent Accomplishments of the JCSDA
Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational models Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002) Operational implementation (October, 2002)
New Data used in NCEP operational models SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates SSM/I, AMSU cloud liquid water GOES-10 IR radiances QuikSCAT data ( ~ 5 to 15% improvement in 10 m winds)
AIRS Assessment AIRS data examined at several intervals over the course of one year Initial tests indicate neutral impact in most forecast skill measures, slight positive impact in others, focused on
254 channels out of 2378 Full data assimilation implementation scheduled for 1st Quarter FY05
MODIS winds Slight positive impact; implementation 1st Quarter FY05
NCEP Update
• Within NCEP
– Joint Hurricane Test Bed (USWRP)
– Hazardous Weather Test Bed (NOAA/OAR/NWS base)
– Aviation Test Bed (FAA)
• Affiliated with NCEP
– WRF Developmental Test Bed (NCAR/FSL)
• Being developed
– Hydrometeorological Test Bed (USWRP)
– Climate Test Bed (OGP)
– WRF Operational Test Bed (TBD;NWS)
Focus on THORPEX-related Items
NCEP Test Beds
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Summary
• THORPEX planning is ongoing
– Linked to NOAA PPBES
• Field programs being linked to AMMA (05-07), IPY (07-08)
• Attempting to balance THORPEX components: research, operational transitions, societal impact
• NCEP components being aligned with THORPEX plans – more needs to be done (e.g., Test Bed activities)
• Several Issues
– Reallocation vs “new” money
– Climate-weather linkage in THORPEX