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THORPEX

David Burridge

WMO

THORPEX International Programme Office

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THORPEX Priorities Global-to-regional influences on the evolution and

predictability of weather systemsGlobal observing-system design and demonstrationTargeting and assimilation of observationsSocietal, economic, and environmental benefits of

improved forecasts

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Data Targeting

Value of extra-tropical targeted data has been found to be positive, but small, on average

Observations taken in sensitive areas have more value than observations deployed randomly

There are limitations due to the current assimilation methodologies (not yet fully flow-dependent)

Sensitive area characterization does not appear to be the first order problem

Additional observations for tropical cyclones have proven to be useful (further T-PARC analysis important)

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A key component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of

humanity. The TIGGE project has developed a database of global ensemble forecasts collected in near real-time.

Objectives: Enhance collaboration on ensemble prediction,

both internationally and between operational centres & universities.

Facilitate research on ensemble prediction methods, especially methods to combine ensembles and to correct systematic errors

Enable evolution towards a prototype operational system, the “Global Interactive Forecast System”

The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)

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TIGGE data flows (6 to 30h after real time)

300 GB per day

TIGGE – David Parsons (session II)

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La Stampa, 29 April 2009. La Regione Piemonte «Stato di emergenza dopo la piena». In tutto il Piemonte ci sono stati allagamenti e smottamenti di strade. Situazione difficile oltre che ad Alessandria anche nel Cuneese, nell'Astigiano e in Val d'Ossola. La presidente Mercedes Bresso ha chiesto lo stato di emergenza. Allerta per il Po’ invece dalla Protezione civile dell'Emilia-Romagna, dove la piena e' attesa per oggi. La piena in Piemonte, dovrebbe avere una portata stimata sui 7.000 metri cubi al secondo.

La Repubblica, 30 April 2009: Crolla un'arcata, precipitano 4 macchine. Grave un automobilista ricoverato in rianimazione. Piena del Po’, crolla ponte a Piacenza Le auto finiscono in acqua: 4 feriti Piena del Po#, crolla ponte a Piacenza. Un'arcata ha ceduto alla furia della piena del fiume e l'asflato si è piegato verso l'acqua trascinando quattro auto. La strada si è piegata in una sorta di "v".

Alessandria, 29 April 2009. The Tanaro river reaches extremely high levels (photo A Contaldo, Photonews, available from http://torino.repubblica.it/)

Piacenza, 30 April 2009. The collapse of one of the bridges across the Po’ river (photo P Caridi, WordPress, available from http://peppecaridi2.wordpress.com/).

Flood prediction with ensembles

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forecast from the 24th of April 00 UTC simulating discharges which exceed the EFAS high alert level for the Po river basin. The circles denote the locations of reporting points.

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Towards the Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)

The objective of the GIFS is to realise the benefits of THORPEX research by improving the delivery of improved forecasts of high-impact weather.

As a first step, the GIFS-TIGGE working group set up a pilot project for the exchange of real-time tropical cyclone predictions using “Cyclone XML” format.

Forecast and research demonstartion projects are being developed by the GIFS-TIGGE WG and regional centres to predict tropical cyclone tracks and heavy rainfall

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Assess and seek to improve the quality of operational analyses and research reanalysis products in the Polar RegionsAddress improving data assimilation techniques for Polar RegionsAssess the skill in the prediction of polar to global high impact weather events for different observing strategies in higher latitudesDemonstrate the utility of improved utilization of ensemble weather forecast products for high impact weather events and for IPY operations, when applicableDevelop recommendations for the design of the Global Observing System in polar regions for weather predictionConduct field campaigns during the IPY intensive observing period to assist achievement of the goalsAddress two-way interactions between polar and sub-polar weather regimes

The IPY-THORPEXCLUSTEROBJECTIVES

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T-NAWDEXTHORPEX-

North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment

To be performed in 2011/2012 in conjunction with HYMEX

address the triggering of waveguide disturbances by different processes and the disturbances’ subsequent downstream evolution

study of the downstream impacts of the waveguide disturbances over Europe, the Mediterranean, and northern Africa

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EPS - RAVI (D Burridge) 12CBSXIV March 2009

HYMEX: Main Scientific Topics

Better understanding of the intense events: processes and contribution to the trend

Jean-Pierre Chalon – session V

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T-NAWDEX aircraft observations

Use HALO-Demonstration Mission HALO-THORPEX for field phase

Test – November 2009 - UK FAAM BAE 146-301 Large Atmospheric Research Aircraft G-LUXE

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Highlights - summary

Three major real-time international observational programmes have been completed (for the Atlantic and Pacific) A-TREC, E-TREC and T-PARC (Tetsuo Nakazawa & Zoltan Toth – session II)

Plans for T-NAWDEX and HyMeX are maturingReports on the effectiveness of data-targeting have been

completed International data bases (TIGGE) of near-real time global

ensemble predictions from ten prediction centres have been established and the results are being provided for wide-ranging research by three archive centres

The THORPEX IPY Cluster of projects have made a major contribution to observing and NWP for polar regions

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Highlights – summary 2

A major contribution has been made to AMMAThe YOTC project has been establishedThe THORPEX community has made a contribution to

the WWRP Strategic planRegional Plans have been developedThree Science Symposia have been held - (2004 in

Montreal (Canada), 2006 in Landshut (Germany) and 2009 in Monterey (USA))

In addition, the THORPEX community and partners are leading four GEO tasks (for health, climate, ensemble-prediction and high impact weather in Africa) and these projects are now the main elements of the GEO weather prediction activity.

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Future emphasisBasic issues of predictability and key dynamical

processesThe required initial conditions and implied observational

coverageStrategies for observations targeting in critical situationsTackling the problem issues in data assimilation

especially at high resolutionHandling of the tropics particularly organised convection,

tropical cyclones and extra-tropical transition and interactions

Polar weatherSeamless prediction of weather and climate from days to

weeks and seasons (see CASXV Agenda item 7)