Targeted observations and Observing System simulation Experiments Within

THORPEX

Yucheng Song

IMSG/EMC/NCEP/NOAA

Camp Springs, MD

THORPEX Review, Feb 25 2009

MOTIVATIONS

• Apply the adaptive targeting technique to real world application such as WSR, T-PARC

• Evaluate the data impact from these adaptive observations with respect to analysis and forecast for high impact weather events

• Understand how observation error in the sensitive region grows to affect downstream forecast (dropout cases)

• Explore the value of targeted observations in data assimilation

• Develop/improve targeting techniques (such as ETKF) within the framework of OSE and OSSE

2007-2008 Activities

• Implementation and maintenance of ETKF codes for adaptive targeting purpose with MPI features for faster performance and capability of running for large domain

• Collaboration with HMT on a joint winter storms reconnaissance 2008 with the P-3 flights

• Working with OSSE group on setting up the data simulation system and NCEP OSSE system

• Participation in the summer T-PARC project in preparing for the unified GRIB coding for DTS system

• Winter T-PARC project preparation

Valentine’s day Storm

• Weather event with a large societal impact• Each GFS run verified against its own analysis – 60 hr forecast• Impact on surface pressure verification• RMS error improvement: 19.7% (2.48mb vs. 2.97mb)Targeted in high impact weather area marked by the circle

Surface pressure from analysis (hPa; solid contours)Forecast Improvement (hPa; shown in red)Forecast Degradation (hPa; blue)

Overall results for Vector wind

The RMS error reduction could reach as high as 30% in certain verification areas

A special HMT/WSR mission (Atmospheric River, Feb 24, 00Z, 2008)

Joint WSR/HMT P-3 Mission

• 9.8-hour Mission flown Sunday 24 February 2008

Comparison of ETKF signal and NCEP signal(Remarkable resemblance)

The ETKF signal The NCEP signal

A special HMT/WSR mission(Observed Precipitation)

Possible consideration for future UAV application

“Atmospheric River” impact in a dropout case

Day -4-6

RAWIN

Russia

D -2-4

G-IV

D -1-3

C-130

G-IV

North

America

VR

Arctic

VR Day -5-6E-AMDAR

Winter T-PARC platforms

Extensive observational platforms during T-PARC winter phase allow us to track the potential storms and take additional observations as the perturbation propagate downstream into Arctic and North America

WINTER T-PARC THEMES

• Rossby-wave propagation plays a major role in the development of high impact weather events over North America and the Arctic on the 3-5 days forecast time scale

• Additional remotely sensed and in situ data can complement the standard observational network in capturing critical processes in Rossby-wave initiation and propagation

• Adaptive configuration of the observing network and data processing can significantly improve the quality of data assimilation and forecast products

• Regime dependent planning/targeting • Case dependent targeting

• New DA, modeling and ensemble methods can better capture and predict the initiation and propagation of Rossby-waves leading to high impact events

• Forecast products, including those developed as part of the TPARC research, will have significant social and/or economic value

• Identify potential high impact weather events over NA and Arctic – At 5-7 day lead time, to improve shorter lead time forecasts– Use NAEFS ensemble forecast products– Weather Service forecaster involvement from US, Canada, Mexico

• Determine sensitive areas affecting verification events at different times– Use ETKF or ET or other techniques– Inter-compare results from NCEP, NRL, NASA/GSFC, others– Consensus decision

• Observe conditions in sensitive areas– Use various observing platforms as sensitive areas move through their

domain as lead time shortens

CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS

CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS - 2

• Assimilate all standard and adaptive observations – Use operational DA and forecast systems– Improved NAEFS forecasts

• Generate new experimental products based on improved NAEFS system– These include sea ice, freezing spray, river flow forecast etc.– Solicit direct feedback from user community– Enhance products in post-TPARC developments

• Evaluate impact of adaptive observations and other NWP methods– Use either operational or enhanced DA/Modeling/ensemble systems– Consider differences between DA/forecast system with/without adaptive

data– Inter-compare operational and experimental NWP systems

9:30AM-10:30AM

10AM-11:00AM

11AM-1:00PM

1PM-1:30PM

2:30PM-3:30PM

3:30PM-5:30PM

5:30PM-

Receiving requests from HPC, SPC

and others, compile/review

cases

Run NCEP setup and ETKF program/submit/evaluate cases on DTS system

Waiting for DTS results to be ready/review

forecast products from different

sources

NCEP internal discussion based on different products

Daily briefing/decision meeting through

gotomeeting software

WINTER T-PARC DAILY OPERATION FLOW CHART

Decisions for Radiosonde

issuedG-IV/C-130

track design

Daily decisions need to be made for the 60 and 84hr leading time, e.g. on Feb 18, we need to make decision for Feb 20, 12Z and Feb 21, 12Z. If there was a request

yesterday, we also need to review that mission, for example Feb 19, 12Z

Winter T-PARC Science Questions

• Can the adaptive collected data improve the analysis and forecast?

• When and where would be the best timing for targeting?

• Why in some cases the SV and ET KF show different results?

• How meso-scale structure interact with large scale background in changing the predictability for long lead time?

• What role is the moist process in the initiation and developing stages?

Initial results of Dropsondes impact from Winter T-PARC

Rolf Langland (NRL)

Planned Tasks for 2009-10

• Winter T-PARC/WSR2009 – Coordination with international collaborators for the field stage– Evaluate the impacts of T-PARC observations in post field

stage– Hosting meeting for T-PARC

• Develop/improve adaptive targeting techniques• Implementation of ET KF methods into OSSE• Participation of data impact configuration of GFS/GDAS

for OSSE• Collaboration with NOAA UAS program and DWL group

for their possible application in future missions• Collaboration with SREF on possible ET KF codes• Participation in SWICE