World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation · 2020-03-13 · • Exports from the EU to jump 25% from...
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Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released March 10, 2020, unless otherwise indicated. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments. World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation March 2020
Transcript of World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation · 2020-03-13 · • Exports from the EU to jump 25% from...
Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates released March 10, 2020, unless otherwise indicated. Projections will change over the course of the year
depending on weather and other developments.
World Wheat Supply and
Demand Situation
March 2020
Supply and Demand
Highlights of USDA’s 2019/20 Supply and Demand Estimates
• 2019/20 global wheat production to jump to record high of 764 MMT• Wheat production in Australia fell 14% from last year to 15.6 MMT on prolonged drought• Indian wheat production to reach a record 104 MMT tons in 2019/20 • U.S. wheat production rose 2% from last year to 52.2 MMT
• Global consumption forecast at 755 MMT, the highest on record• Egyptian domestic consumption to reach a record 20.4 MMT, up 4% from the 5-year average• Domestic consumption in Mexico to reach 7.50 MMT, up 1% from the 5-year average• U.S. domestic consumption to total 31.7 MMT, up 5% year-over-year
• World wheat trade to jump 6% year-over-year to 184 MMT• Exports from the EU to jump 25% from last year to 31.0 MMT• Argentinian wheat exports to increase 10% from last year to 13.5 MMT • U.S. 2019/20 exports to increase to 27.2 MMT, 7% higher than last year and 10% higher than the
5-year average
Supply and Demand
Highlights of USDA’s 2019/20 Supply and Demand Estimates
• World beginning stocks fell 2% year-over-year to 278 MMT, still 15% higher than the 5-year average of 242 MMT
• Chinese beginning stocks of 140 MMT are 43% higher than the 5-year average and make up 50% of the global total
• Indian beginning stocks jumped 22% from last year to 17.0 MMT • U.S. 2019/20 beginning stocks of 29.4 MMT were down 2% from last year and accounted for 43% of
total major exporter beginning stocks
• Global ending stocks projected at 288 MMT, 4% higher than last year and 12% higher than the 5-year average
• Projected Indian ending stocks of 22.1 MMT are 23% higher than last year and 54% higher than the 5-year average
• Expected Australian ending stocks of 4.01 MMT are 24% lower than last year and 19% lower than the 5-year average
• U.S. ending stocks are expected to fall 12% from last year to 25.6 MMT, the lowest in 5 years
• U.S. average farm gate price to fall 12% from last year• Projected average farm gate price to fall to $4.55/bu* ($167/MT) from last year’s average of $5.16/bu
($190/MT)
*Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average
Supply and Demand
World Production and Use
763
731
764
742737
755
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
MM
T
Production Use
Supply and Demand
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*
*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
72 72 63
395 368 387
468441 451
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500M
MT
Beginning Stocks Production
Supply and Demand
World Wheat Supply and Demand (MMT)
17/18 18/19 19/20SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 263 284 278
Production 763 731 764Supply Total 1026 1015 1042Ending Stocks 284 278 287
TRADE: Exports/Imports 182 174 184
DEMAND: Food & Seed 596 598 607Feed & Residual 147 140 148Use Total 742 737 755
Supply and Demand
World Beginning Stocks
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
56 57 52
21 21 15
71 7471
115131
140
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China
Supply and Demand
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio
*Ending stocks
38 38 38
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
Perc
ent
Supply and Demand
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China
*Ending stocks
2423 22
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
Perc
ent
Supply and Demand
World Ending Stocks
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
57 52 48
21 15 16
7471 76
131 140 146
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
5 Major Exporters Black Sea Other China
Supply and Demand
World Ending Stocks by Position(MMT)
Exporters, 63.5
Importers, 76.3China, 146
Supply and Demand
Global Ending Stocks and Price
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, March 6, 2020
57 52 48
21 15 16
205 211225
214 220 214
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
$US/
MT
MM
T
Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW Price*
Major ExportersImport DemandU.S. Situation by ClassOutlook
Exportable Supplies in Top Exporting Countries
*Exportable Supplies = (Beginning Stocks + Production) – Domestic Consumption
50 51 50
19 17 22
5343 42
1110 7
31
28 37
28
3028
19
14 11
13
14 15
0
50
100
150
200
250
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
ArgentinaAustraliaCanadaEUKazakhstanRussiaUkraineU.S.
Canada Situation
6.9 6.7 6.0
30.432.2 32.4
22.024.4
23.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Canada Ending Stocks
6.76.0 6.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
Australia Situation
5.7 5.5 5.0
20.9 17.315.2
13.8
9.08.0
7.5 9.2 8.7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Australia Ending Stocks
5.55.0
4.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
Argentina Situation
0.2 0.51.7
18.519.5
19.5
12.7 12.213.5
5.66.1 6.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Argentina Ending Stocks
0.5
1.7 1.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
EU- 28 Situation
10.7 13.9 10.0
151137
154
23.423.3 31.0
130123 128
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
EU-28 Ending Stocks
13.9
10.010.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
Russia Situation
10.8 12.0 7.8
85
72 74
41.435.8 35.0
43.040.5 39.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Russia Ending Stocks
12.0
7.87.4
0
5
10
15
20
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
Supply and Demand
Ukraine Situation
1.8 1.2 1.6
27.0
25.1
29.0
17.816.0
20.5
9.8 8.8 8.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Supply and Demand
Ukraine Ending Stocks
1.21.6
1.3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Black Sea Region Situation
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
21.4 21.2 15.2
142124
130
69.161.0 60.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Black Sea Exports
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
41.435.8 35.0
17.8
16.0 20.5
9.0
8.36.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
Black Sea Ending Stocks
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
21.2
15.2 15.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
U.S. Situation
32.1 29.9 29.4
47.451.3 52.3
24.7 25.5 27.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
U.S. Ending Stocks
29.9 29.4
25.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
Major Exporters
Import DemandU.S. Situation by ClassOutlook
Major World Wheat Importers(from all origins)
0123456789
10111213
MM
T
2018/19 2019/20
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
5-year average
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of May 31, 2019
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
MM
T
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of February 27, 2020
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
Year-to-date
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
MM
T
2018/19 2019/20
World Wheat Imports
Trend in “other” importers denoted ( )
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
"Other" China FSU EU-28
Major ExportersImport Demand
U.S. Situation by ClassOutlook
U.S. Wheat Planted Area
*Source: USDA June 2019 Acreage Report, USDA September 2019 Small Grains Summary and USDA January 2020 Winter Wheat Seeding Report
23.8 23.2 22.5
5.61 5.89 5.22
4.02 4.12 3.952.31 2.06 1.34
10.312.7 12.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mill
ion
Acre
s
HRW SRW White Durum HRS
U.S. Winter Wheat Planted Area
*Source: USDA January 2020 Winter Wheat Seeding Report
23.2 22.5 21.8
5.89 5.22 5.64
4.123.51 3.37
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mill
ion
Acre
s
HRW SRW White
U.S. Wheat Sales by Class(year-to-date)
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of February 27, 2020
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
HRW HRS White SRW Durum
MM
T
2018/19 2019/20
U.S. Hard Red Winter
15.8 14.0
18.022.7
9.010.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Hard Red Spring
5.27.2
16.0
14.2
7.0 7.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Soft Red Winter
5.6 4.3
7.8
6.5
3.52.7
0
5
10
15
20
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. White
2.4 2.4
7.47.4
5.3 5.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Durum
1.0 1.5
2.1 1.5
1.41.1
0.6
1.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
MM
T
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand (MMT)
HRW HRS SRW18/19 19/20 18/19 19/20 18/19 19/20
Beginning Stocks 15.8 14.0 5.20 7.16 5.58 4.30Production 18.0 22.7 16.0 14.2 7.78 6.50Supply Total 34.0 36.9 23.0 22.7 13.47 10.9
Domestic Use 10.9 13.1 8.82 8.46 5.69 5.33Exports 9.0 10.6 7.05 7.48 3.48 2.72Use Total 19.9 23.7 15.9 15.9 9.17 8.06
Ending Stocks 14.0 13.2 7.16 6.78 4.30 2.88
Stocks-to-Use 70% 56% 45% 42% 47% 36%
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand (MMT)
White Durum Total 18/19 19/20 18/19 19/20 18/19 19/20
Beginning Stocks 2.37 2.40 0.95 1.50 29.9 29.4Production 7.40 7.40 2.12 1.47 51.3 52.3Supply Total 9.9 9.93 4.49 4.06 84.9 84.5
Domestic Use 2.20 2.45 2.40 2.40 30.0 31.7Exports 5.33 5.31 0.60 1.09 25.5 27.2Use Total 7.54 7.76 2.99 3.48 55.5 58.9
Ending Stocks 2.40 2.18 1.50 0.57 29.4 25.6
Stocks-to-Use 32% 28% 50% 16% 53% 43%
U.S. FOB Gulf Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, March 6, 2020
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20
$/M
etric
Ton
HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
U.S. FOB PNW Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, March 6, 2020
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20
$/M
etric
Ton
HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW
Soft White and SRW Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, March 6, 2020
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20
$/M
etric
Ton
SW SRW
U.S. Gulf Basis Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, March 6, 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20
$/M
etric
Ton
HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
U.S. PNW Basis Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, March 6, 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20
$/M
etric
Ton
HRS 14 HRW 12
Major ExportersImport DemandU.S. Situation by Class
Outlook
U.S. Wheat Production, Area and Yield
15.216.0 15.0
47.451.3
52.33.1
3.2
3.5
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MT/
hect
are
Prod
uctio
n (M
MT)
and
Har
vest
ed A
rea
(mh)
Harvested Area Production Yield
U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison
46.1 47.845.2
90.2
88.9
89.7
90.2
89.2
76.1
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20*
Mill
ion
Acre
s
Wheat All Corn for Grain Soybeans
World WheatProduction, Use and Trade
735 76
3
731 76
4
711 74
2
737 75
5
173
182
174
184
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
World CornProduction, Use and Trade
1080 11
23
1112
1092 1127
1138
148
181
166
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
World SoybeansProduction, Use and Trade
342 35
9
342
338
343
350
153148 152
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
Ocean Freight Rates for Grains
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, March 6, 2020
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20
$/M
etric
ton
PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East Gulf to West Africa
Summary• Global production to reach a record 764 MMT
• Wheat production in Australia fell 14% in 2019/20 to 15.6 MMT on prolonged drought• Indian wheat production to reach a record 104 MMT in 2019/20 • U.S. wheat production rose 2% above last year to 52.2 MMT
• Global ending stocks to rise to 288 MMT, 4% above 2018/19 and 12% higher than the 5-year average of 258 MMT
• Projected Indian ending stocks of 22.1 MMT are 23% higher than last year and 54% higher than the 5-year average
• U.S. ending stocks to total 25.6 MMT, 15% lower than 2018/19 and 8% below the 5-year average
• World consumption and trade both expected to exceed 2018/19 levels
• Total global wheat consumption to reach an all-time high of 755 MMT, 2% higher than last year and 4% higher than the 5-year average
• Total global trade to reach 184 MMT, 6% higher than 2018/19• U.S. 2019/20 domestic consumption to increase 5% year-over-year to 31.7 MMT and exports
to rise 7% above 2018/19 to 27.2 MMT
