World Wheat, Corn and · • Russian wheat exports, and potential export controls • Global feed...
49
Transcript of World Wheat, Corn and · • Russian wheat exports, and potential export controls • Global feed...
World Wheat, Corn and Soybean Outlook
Seth Meyer, ChairmanUSDA’s Multi-Agency WASDE process
# C A M P A Ñ A G R U E S A 1 8 1 9
September 12, 2018
September 12, 2018
Progreso del cultivo
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% de maíz maduro % de soja que tienen hojascaídas
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
11.38 MT/hectare
2004
20052006 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
20142015
20162017 Aug-18
Sept-18
0.260
0.270
0.280
0.290
0.300
0.310
0.320
0.330
0.340
0.350
0.360
0.370
25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500
Lbs/Ear
Ears Per Acre
Corn Objective Yield RegionEars Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight
Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears
USDA-NASS
9-12-18
NASSEstimate
LowOf
Expectations
AverageOf
Expectations
HighOf
Expectations
14,1
14,2
14,3
14,4
14,5
14,6
14,7
14,8
14,9
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels2018 United States Corn Production
Industry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
9.76 9.439.92
9.50
8.97
10.1
11.8
11.1
10.5
13.0
12.0
13.1
12.4 12.3
10.8
13.814.2
13.6
15.114.6 14.8
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Billion BushelsCorn for Grain Production
United States
2018/19 Global Soybean Production
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
4502
00
5/
06
20
06
/0
7
20
07
/0
8
20
08
/0
9
20
09
/1
0
20
10
/1
1
20
11
/1
2
20
12
/1
3
20
13
/1
4
20
14
/1
5
20
15
/1
6
20
16
/1
7
20
17
/1
8
20
18
/1
9
Mil. Tons
369.3 mmt
3.55 MT/hectare
2004
2005
2006
20072008
2009
20102011
2012
2013 2014 2015
20162017
Sept-18
0.260
0.265
0.270
0.275
0.280
0.285
0.290
0.295
0.300
0.305
0.310
0.315
0.320
0.325
0.330
0.335
0.340
0.345
0.350
1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900
Grams/Pod
Pods Per 18 Square Feet
Soybean Objective Yield RegionPods Per 18 Square Feet vs. Implied Pod Weight
Implied Pod Weight = (Published Yield / Pods) /0.0889
2.742.65
2.76
2.89
2.76
2.45
3.12 3.073.20
2.68
2.97
3.36 3.33
3.10 3.04
3.36
3.93 3.93
4.30
4.39
4.69
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Billion BushelsSoybean Production
United States
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
2,2
2,4
2,6
2,8
O N D J F A M J J A S
2018 2017 2016
2.30
U.S. Crush Margin$/bu.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9S
ep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Apr
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Aug
US Soybean Exports to China
MMT
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
US Soybean Exports Excluding China2017/18
2016/17
2015/16
5 Year Average (2010-2014)
MMT
325
375
425
475
525
5/1/2015 5/9/2015 5/5/2016 5/1/2017 5/9/2017 5/5/2018
U.S. versus Brazil Soybean Price to Shanghai, China
Minneapolis, MN Cash Price + Transport through Gulf to Shanghai+ 25% tariffParanagua Price + Transport to Shanghai
$/MT
-125
-75
-25
25
75
125
1/9/2015 1/9/2016 1/9/2017 1/9/2018
U.S. Soybean Basis (low bid)
Central Illinois Louisiana Gulf Minneapolis, MN, Terminal Elevators
Global protein consumption growth forecast at 3.3 percent
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
20
13
/14
20
14
/15
20
15
/16
20
16
/17
20
17
/18
20
18
/19
Mil. Tons
+10mmt
China SBM consumption expands 4 pct.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
902004/0
5
2005/0
6
2006/0
7
2007/0
8
2008/0
9
2009/1
0
2010/1
1
2011/1
2
2012/1
3
2013/1
4
2014/1
5
2015/1
6
2016/1
7
2017/1
8
2018/1
9
Mil. Tons+2.8mmt
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
302
00
4/0
5
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
20
13
/14
20
14
/15
20
15
/16
20
16
/17
20
17
/18
20
18
/19
China Soybean Stocks
-1.7 mil tons
Mil. Tons
China soybean imports
0102030405060708090
100110120
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
20
13
/14
20
14
/15
20
15
/16
20
16
/17
20
17
/18
20
18
/19
93.594.0
Mil. Tons
+13% annually 2006-16
0
2
4
6
8
10
Oct
No
v
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Brazil Soybean Exports to China
MMT
0
2
4
6
8
10
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Se
p
2017/18
2016/17
2015/16
5 Year Average (2010-2014)
MMT Brazil Soybean Exports Excluding China
0102030405060708090
100110
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
20
13
/14
20
14
/15
20
15
/16
20
16
/17
20
17
/18
20
18
/19
Mil. Acres
Average 9%
Brazil soybean area projected up 7%
92.7 mil ac37.5 mil hectares
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
10,00
11,00
12,00
6-J
an
6-F
eb
6-M
ar
6-A
pr
6-M
ay
6-J
un
6-J
ul
6-A
ug
6-S
ep
March 2018 March 2019
March Soybean Futures Price
$/bushel
-10%
Brazil Currency Valuation vs. the Dollar
20,00
23,00
26,00
29,00
32,00
35,00
38,00
41,00
44,00
6-J
an
6-F
eb
6-M
ar
6-A
pr
6-M
ay
6-J
un
6-J
ul
6-A
ug
6-S
ep
March 2018 March 2019
March Soybean Futures Price
Reals/bushel
+15%
20,00
23,00
26,00
29,00
32,00
35,00
38,00
41,00
44,00
6-J
an
6-F
eb
6-M
ar
6-A
pr
6-M
ay
6-J
un
6-J
ul
6-A
ug
6-S
ep
March 2018 March 2019 Origin Premium ?
March Soybean Futures Price
Reals/bushel
+15%
Argentina Currency Valuation 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Mil. Acres
Argentina soybean harvested area projected to be up from last year
46.9 mil ac19 mil hectares
3-Crop Acreage Total vs. Lagged Price Index
0
50
100
150
200
0
50
100
150
200
2502
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Wheat Corn Soybeans Lagged Price Index
3-C
rop
To
tal,
Mil
Acr
esP
rice Ind
ex 20
04
= 10
0
Things to Watch
• Russian wheat exports, and potential export controls• Global feed grain supplies (corn, barley, sorghum, etc)• Developments in the trade dispute with China• China soybean import activity and policy changes• South American soybean planting and crop development
(soon!)• Argentina export taxes and fiscal situation• Brazil’s transportation issues• U.S. planting intentions next spring (later!)
September 12, 2018
