Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9...
-
Upload
daniel-dunlap -
Category
Documents
-
view
218 -
download
0
Transcript of Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9...
![Page 1: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Workshopon the linkages between
Trade, Transport and the Environment
World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010Centre William Rappard
Dr. Andreas KoppLead Economist
World [email protected]
![Page 2: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
• Transport costs as trade impediments
• Threats to trade costs from global environmental developments
• Options to keep trade costs low
2
![Page 3: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Importance of trade policy barriers for international trade
• Trade policy barriers are compared transport and retail costs
– Hong Kong and Switzerland have removed all tariffs
– US tariffs are 1.9 per cent as a simple average– Industrialized countries have a simple average
of 5 per cent.– Average tariff levels are above 10 per cent for
many developing countries
3
![Page 4: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Importance of trade policy barriers for international trade
• Trade policy barriers are low by comparison
– Non-tariff barriers are concentrated in a small number of sectors
– NTB’s are more restrictive than tariffs, in particular barriers to agricultural trade in rich countries
4
![Page 5: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Importance of trade costs for international trade
• Trade costs amount to a tax-equivalent of 170 per cent on production value for rich countries (US)
– 55 per cent wholesale and resale distribution costs
– 44 per cent border crossing costs– 21 per cent transport costs
• 12 per cent monetary transport costs• 2 per cent time costs
5
![Page 6: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Importance of transport costs for international trade
• High responsiveness of trade to transport costs: a 10 per cent increase in transport costs leads to a 20 per cent reduction in trade volumes on average
• High transport costs reduces competitiveness in two ways:
– Net domestic export prices are reduced– Gross imported input prices are higher
6
![Page 7: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Some borders have remained thick
7
![Page 8: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Importance of transport costs for international trade
8
![Page 9: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
High transport costs and thick borders create small eco-geographic entities in the developing world
9
![Page 10: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Climate change
• GHG emissions reduces reflection of sun radiation back into the atmosphere
• Leads to increase of average temperatures with extreme weather events, drastic consequences with melting of glaciers and pole caps
• Transport is a main contributor and a main victim of climate change
• Policy tries to implement measures to cap the temperature increase, e.g. 2° C
10
![Page 11: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Threats to trade costs from global environmental developments (?)
Business as usual: Transport will become a main emitter
11
![Page 12: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Optimistic Scenario of Technical Change
12
![Page 13: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
IPPC Deep cuts only after 2030
13
![Page 14: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Pessimistic view: Technical change will not be forthcoming
14
![Page 15: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Pessimistic view: Technical change will not be forthcoming
• Even with the implementation of a carbon tax that achieves a stabilization level of 450 ppm or 2° C the transport emissions will increase by 45 percent by 2050
• Transport costs would increase due to the increase in the price of fossil fuels and due to a carbon price if agreed internationally
15
![Page 16: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Consequences for international trade
• Prima facie the price increase in transport will increase trade costs.
• Core transport costs account for 20 percent of total trade costs (which are however high as a percentage of production costs).
But
16
![Page 17: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
The demand for speed leads to a reduction of trade distances reducing the threat of increasing transport costs
17
![Page 18: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
The value-weight ratio has fallen dramatically reducing the threat of increasing transport costs
• Trade friction of transport has fallen globally despite persistence of monetary costs
• Reduced trade friction is due to changed character in trade
• Overall increase in value-weight ratio of international trade
• Decrease of the ratio for air, increase for maritime sector
18
![Page 19: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Among the external costs of transport GHG emissions are not the most important
19
![Page 20: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Imperativesto keep international transport costs low
• Multimodality in international transport has to be improved
• International transport has to adapt to changing climate to avoid disruptions
20
![Page 21: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Multimodality in international transport has to be improved
• Modal shift road to rail
– International harmonization of technical standards
– Competition issues because of dominant incumbent rail firms, often SOEs
• Modal shift aviation to rail
– Depends on spread of high speed rail– Challenge of coordinating passenger and
freight services
21
![Page 22: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Multimodality in international transport has to be improved
• Modal shift road to maritime
– Better and more intermodal infrastructure facilities to reduce switching costs
– Avoid discrimination against maritime sector in pricing carbon
22
![Page 23: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Conclusions
• Climate change is real and requires urgent global action
• Transport costs are of high importance for international trade
• Technical change might not do the trick
• Trends in trade reduce the effect of mitigation measures on transport
• Carbon prices would not have a dramatic effect on trade costs
• Improvements in multimodal transport become cost effective with
23
![Page 24: Workshop on the linkages between Trade, Transport and the Environment World Trade Organization, 9 Nov. 2010 Centre William Rappard Dr. Andreas Kopp Lead.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070305/551504d25503465e608b4654/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Thank you!
24