Weekly Market Data Analysis...Other Market News and Trends Compared to last week, average spot...
Transcript of Weekly Market Data Analysis...Other Market News and Trends Compared to last week, average spot...
Weekly Market Data Analysis
Week at a Glance
Average Price (Vol Weighted)
Median PriceAverage Price this week last yearNEM Average Price (excl. Tas)% of time Price <$50/MWh
Storage as at 21 October 2019Percentage FullCompared to last week 18
Max DemandMin DemandAverage DemandWeekly Energy Demand
BasslinkTotal ExportTotal Import% time counter price flow
Total FCAS Costs (Tas)
Beginning of this week (GWh)Percentage fullBeginning of last week (GWh)Change from last week (GWh) 0% 4%
Compared to last year (GWh) 1% 28%
Generation~Hydro Generation (incl. exports)Gas GenerationWind Generation
NHW - Northern Head Waters
Sources: Hydro Tasmania/NEM-ReviewTM
Compiled by OTTER Page 1 Week 43 (20 October 2019 - 26 October 2019)
45.6419.6
GWh
98.22
97.2193.1880.33
2.7
%GWh
MWMW
46.5
1229758
425
27.36
Week 43: 20 October 2019 to 26 October 2019 (Sunday - Saturday)
6737
$/MWh
$/MWh$/MWh$/MWh%
GWh
947178.04
5.34
6755
6737*46.5%
105.994.39
Water Storage Situation(as at Monday 21 October 2019)
System
*This figure represents system storage levels inclusive of Lake Gairdner, Lake Margaret and Lake Plimsoll.
~Excludes distributed energy resources such as solar PV generation
MWGWh
GWhGWh%
406.78
443
GWh
GWh
$1000s
NHW
72.0%
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
40
41
42
43
Average Price ($/MWh) - past 4 weeks
Week
13.3
42.8
52.5
45.6
24.0
6.9
2.2
5.3
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40
40
41
42
43
Basslink Import/Export (GWh) - past 4 weeks
WeekImport
Export
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Dem
and/B
L flo
w (
MW
)
Tasmanian Demand & Basslink flow during the week
BL Import Tasmanian Generation Tasmanian Demand
TASMANIAN
MARKETWATCH
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Sto
rage (
GW
h)
Week
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Fact Sheet Compiled using information from NEM-ReviewTM and AEMO published data
Market Price This week Last week ChangeAverage Price (Volume weighted) $/MWh 98.22 112.72 DOWN by 12.9%Median Price $/MWh 97.21 102.67 DOWN by 5.3%Maximum Price $/MWh 245.02 323.68Minimum Price $/MWh 4.67 69.35% of intervals price was below $50/MWh % 2.7% 0.0%
Recorded max weekly Avg since 29.4.06 $/MWh 406.10 Week 25/2009Recorded min weekly Avg since 29.4.06 $/MWh 0.46 Week 6/2010
Demand OccurrenceMaximum Demand during the week MW 1229Minimum Demand during the week MW 758Average Demand during the week MW 947Weekly System Load Factor (LF) % 77.05%Spring Average LF (Sep 18 - Nov 18) % 71.42%Weekly Energy Demand GWh 178.04(Basslink + Gas) Share % 28.00%
Recorded maximum peak for 2019 MW 1727Recorded maximum peak to date MW 1760 11 August 2008
Basslink Export Import Net/TotalTotal Export/Import GWh 5.34 45.64 Net Import 40.30Max flow during export/import MW 460 429Inter-regional revenue generated* $1000s 304.10 1110.25 1414.35Max +ve price differential observed $/MWh 214.09 247.10Max -ve price differential observed $/MWh -79.82 -68.25No of intervals of counter price flow 6 60% time of counter price flow % 1.79% 17.9% 19.6%No-go zone flows (% of total MWh flows) % 0.94% 0.00% 0.10%
* Losses in the link are not considered in the calculation of residues.
FCAS Costs Tasmania Mainland Total NEMTotal FCAS costs $1000s 406.78 3822.68 4229.46% of Total Energy Costs % 2.60% 1.47% 1.54%Cost of Lower Services $1000s 49.79 602.01 651.80% of Total Energy Costs % 0.32% 0.23% 0.24%Cost of Raise Services $1000s 356.99 3220.66 3577.65% of Total Energy Costs % 2.28% 1.24% 1.30%
Price Spikes in Tasmania (when price was > 3 x Weekly Average)Weekly Average = $98.22/MWh
Compiled by OTTER Page 2 Week 43 (20 October 2019 - 26 October 2019)
22 October 2019 7:00 AM
25 October 2019 2:00 AM
24 June 2019
The spot price in Tasmania did not reach more than three times the weekly average during the week.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
21-Oct-19 22-Oct-19 23-Oct-19 24-Oct-19 25-Oct-19 26-Oct-19
$/M
Wh
MW
Demand and Price Profiles of the week - Tasmania Demand Price
14.8
57.2
25.6
2.4
Wind
Hydro
Basslink
Gas *
0 50 100* represents output from TVPS
% weekly generation by source
Market snapshot
Compiled by OTTER Page 3 Week 43 (20 October 2019 - 26 October 2019)
Other Market News and Trends
Compared to last week, average spot prices for the week decreased in all NEM jurisdictions. Weekly average volume weighted spot
prices ranged between $70.79/MWh in South Australia and $98.22/MWh in Tasmania. Tasmanian spot prices were mostly in the
$76-$150 MWh range during the week.
Turnover in the energy market was $275.12 million (turnover in the Tasmanian region was $15.63 million). The total cost of ancillary
services for the week was $4.23 million or 1.54% of energy market turnover. Tasmanian contribution to total FCAS costs was 10%.
0.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2%4.5%
53.0%
37.2%
2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
<10
11-2
0
21-3
0
31-4
0
41-5
0
51-7
5
76-1
00
101-1
50
151-2
00
201-5
00
501-5
000
>5000
Occurr
en
ce (
%)
Price Range ($/MWh)
Price Distribution within the week (Tasmania)
Occurrence
% below the range
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
QLD NSW VIC SA TAS
Weekly Average prices in the NEM ($/MWh)
Last week
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
NEM Week
Tasmanian share of total NEM FCAS costs in 2019Tasmania Mainland
Tasmanian rainfall for the week
Compiled by OTTER Page 4 Week 43 (20 October 2019 - 26 October 2019)
Map showing rainfall (mm) for the week over Hydro catchment areas.
Wholesale Electricity Market Contract Regulation
here.
Traffic Light Indicators
here
Q120 1 1 Yes
Q220 1 1 Yes
Q320 3 3 Yes
Q420 3 3 Yes
Q121 3 3 Yes
Q221 3 3 Yes
Q321 3 3 Yes
Q421 3 3 Yes
Key:3
2
1
Compiled by OTTER Page 5 Week 43 (20 October 2019 - 26 October 2019)
Disclaimer: Although this report has been prepared in good faith using information and reports publicly available from web sites and
other sources, the Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator assumes no liability as to the reliability and accuracy of the information
provided. Readers should refer to the 'Guide to reading Market Watch' for definitions of terms and an overview of the data and charts
used in this weekly bulletin.
The traffic light indicators advise market participants of the availability of energy for Regulator-approved contracts under the Wholesale
Contract Regulatory Instrument in each of the eight forward quarters in which Hydro Tasmania is required to offer approved contracts.
For more information on the role of the traffic light indicators refer to the Market Watch Readers Guide available
Limited head room (0-130MW of capacity, 0-200GWh of energy)
availableNo head room available
Active
Contract
Quarter
Significant head room (>130MW of capacity, >200GWh of energy) still
available
To help you understand the information in this section refer to the Regulator's Wholesale Pricing page available
Approved financial contract offer prices for 22 October 2019
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Q120 Q220 Q320 Q420 Q121 Q221 Q321 Q421
$/M
Wh
Contract quarter - calendar years
Cap Peak swap Base load swap Load following swap
Capacity Energy