Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.
-
date post
21-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.
![Page 1: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Project 1 2009
![Page 2: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing
![Page 3: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
0
50
100
150
200
37.50 38.75 40.00 41.25 42.50 43.75 45.00
Series: AWHMANSample 1939:01 2009:03Observations 843
Mean 40.65801Median 40.60000Maximum 45.70000Minimum 37.00000Std. Dev. 1.223442Skewness 1.536577Kurtosis 8.945283
Jarque-Bera 1573.272Probability 0.000000
Histogram of AWHMAN
![Page 5: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Prewhitening
![Page 9: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
-4
-2
0
2
4
40 50 60 70 80 90 00
DAWHMAN
36
38
40
42
44
46
40 50 60 70 80 90 00
AWHMAN
AWHMAN & DAWHMAN
![Page 12: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Identification of DAWHMAN Histogram Correlogram Unit root Test
![Page 13: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
0
100
200
300
400
500
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2
Series: DAWHMANSample 1939:02 2009:03Observations 842
Mean 0.002613Median 0.000000Maximum 2.300000Minimum -3.800000Std. Dev. 0.302534Skewness -1.967531Kurtosis 39.72864
Jarque-Bera 47870.42Probability 0.000000
Histogram DAWHMAN
![Page 14: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Model: Conjecture and Estimation
![Page 17: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Estimation excluding last 12 months of data
![Page 18: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
![Page 20: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Morgan Hansen ar(1) ar(4) ma(3) ma(4) .289
Jeff Lee ar(3) ma(1) ma(9) .291
Juliann Shan ar(1) ar(3) ar(4) ma(9) .287
Dan Helling ar(1) ar(3) ma(4) ma(9) .288
Matt Mullens ar(3) ma(1) ma(3) ma(9) .288
Chris Stroud ma(1) ma(3) ma(9) .288
Brooks Allen ar(3) ma(1) ma(3) ma(9) .288
![Page 22: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Forecast for last 12 months of data
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
DAWHMANFORECAST
FORECAST+2*SEFFORECAST-2*SEF
Dawhman, Forecat & Confidence interval, Last 12 Months of Data
![Page 25: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Initial Condition, recoloring
![Page 26: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Recolored Within Sample Forecast
39.0
39.5
40.0
40.5
41.0
41.5
42.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
AWHMANAWHMANG
AWHMANG+2*SEFAWHMANG-2*SEF
Within Sample Forecast Recolored:: Information is what you do not expect
![Page 27: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Estimation for Full Period
![Page 28: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
![Page 29: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Model Validation Actual, fitted and residual dawhman Correlogram of residual Histogram of residual Serial correlation test
![Page 30: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
-4
-2
0
2
-4
-2
0
2
4
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Residual Actual Fitted
Model: dawhman c ar(1) ar(3) ar(4) ma(9)
![Page 31: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
![Page 32: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
0
100
200
300
400
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
Series: ResidualsSample 1939:06 2009:03Observations 838
Mean 4.34E-05Median 0.006584Maximum 1.866925Minimum -3.668665Std. Dev. 0.287639Skewness -2.557315Kurtosis 40.26887
Jarque-Bera 49411.54Probability 0.000000
Histogram of Model Residual
![Page 33: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
![Page 34: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Forecast for Remainder of 2009
![Page 35: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
09:04 09:05 09:06 09:07 09:08 09:09 09:10 09:11 09:12
DAWHMANFF ± 2 S.E.
Forecast for last 9 Months of 2009
![Page 36: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Forecast of Month to Month Change
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
DAWHMANFORECASTF
FORECASTF+2*SEFFFORECASTF-2*SEFF
![Page 38: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Initial condition
![Page 39: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
![Page 40: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
![Page 41: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
38
39
40
41
42
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
AWHMANAWHMANF
AWHMANF+2*SEFAWHMANF-2*SEF
Forecast of Average Weekly Hours In Manufacturing: 2009.04 - 2009.12
![Page 42: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Lessons No single “correct” model, many “correct” Use show command to embellish view of
the forecast Estimate at the prewhitened level. Illustrate
at the cognitive level, i.e. recolor Value of forecasts: Observing what you do
not expect!
![Page 43: Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d595503460f94a390c4/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
As Bernanke Says: “The economy will be slow to
recover”