COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much...
Transcript of COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much...
COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE
Impact on the FMCG market
Week 20 – 10/05-16/05
FMCG Market Trend vs Average MAT
Week 20 marks an 11.0% increase compared to 52 weeks average (based on 52 weeks until week 10 included) The increase comes from all the fields
*All the data is compared to 52 weeks average - week 11 2019 to week 10 2020
20.8%
723Foods
4.3%
107Beverages
19.0%
81Home Care
16.7%
1,017
FMCG
-1.4%
107Personal
Care
-2.0%-1.2% 9.8% 17.7%12.0%11.0% 11.7%
748.5
95.9 91.6 78.8
722.9
106.7 106.7 80.8
מזון משקאות טיפוח הפרט מוצרים לבית
Value Sales (Millions NIS)19 - 03\05
20 - 10\05
FMCG trend vs last week
מכר FMCGמול שבוע קודם Week 20 mark a stagnation (+0.2%) compared to week 19, as Foods is the only field that’s declining
Daily Trend
Week 20 daily sales are higher than annual average, in every day except Saturday The trend of week 20 compared to week 19 is a mixed one
124
160
153
179
217
156
27
129 155
165
184 206
153
24
113124
144165
192
151
28
Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
Value Sales FMCG (Million NIS)20 - 10\05
19 - 03\05
Last 52 weeks Average
Sales Trend by Channels
* *% Change*All the data is compared to 52 weeks average - week 11 2019 to week 10 2020
The Convenience channel is the fastest growing channel, for the first time since COVID-19 outbreak, with 15% growth compared to annual average
This increase comes as movement limitations are lifted and the weather is getting warmer
61
2.9
42
6.5
54
.1
54
.4
77
.9
67
7.4
46
5.2
58
.6
60
.5
93
.2
Discount + Pharm
28
0.9
21
9.2
31
.9
17
.2
12
.6
31
3.7
24
4.6
36
.8
19
.2
13
.2
Neighborhood
22
.6
12
.4 9.3
0.7
0.3
26
.0
13
.1
11
.4
1.2
0.3
Convenience
Channel split Week 20 marks another week in which the share of Discount + Pharm channel is close to annual average The Neighborhood channel marks it’s lowest share since COVID-19 outbreak, as movement limitations are eased Week 20 marks the first time in the period when Convenience channel’s share is higher than annual average
66.8% 66.3% 65.9%
60.0% 60.5%
66.5%62.8%
66.7% 66.6%
2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.6%
30.7% 32.2% 32.6%
38.2% 37.3%
31.7%35.0%
31.2% 30.8%
52 WeeksAverage
13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Value Share FMCG
Discount +Pharm
Convenience
Neighborhood
COVID-19
Effects on FMCG Market
03.03.2019 10.03.2019 17.03.2019 24.03.2020 31.03.2020 07.04.2019 14.04.2019 21.04.2019 28.04.2019 05.05.2019 12.05.2019
01.03.2020 08.03.2020 15.03.2020 22.03.2020 29.03.2020 5.04.2020 12.04.2020 19.04.2020 26.04.2020 03.05.2020 10.05.2020Epidemic
weeks
Last Year
Weeks 10-20 in both periods include the same holidays and shopping periods (Purim, Passover, Independence Day)
COVID Timeline & Significant Events
Weeks 10-12COVID-19 outbreak in Israel
Weeks 13-14The start of movement
limitations
Weeks 15-16Passover - Lockdown
Weeks 17-18Post-Passover
Independence Day
Weeks 19-20Coronavirus Routine
Gatherings up to 5,000 people Mandatory Quarantine for
those returning from abroad Closure of schools and all
educational institutions
Only essential businesses open
Work from home is encouraged when possible
Movement Limitations
Passover lockdown – the holiday is celebrated with nuclear family only
Gradual Return to Work/Offices –“Purple Badge”
Independence Day lockdown
Return to educational institutions
Cancelation of movement limitations
Lag Ba’Omer without campfires
SignificantEvents
Fields and Channels Trends
FMCG Market Trend vs Last Year
The epidemic period marks a 14.3% growth and 1.47 Billion NIS value increase in FMCG sales compared to last year The growth comes from all the fields, the growth in Beverages in the most moderate
*Weeks 10-20 2020 are compared to weeks 10-20 2019
20.8%
8,528Foods
4.3%
1,111Beverages
19.0%
1,020Home Care
16.7%
11,767FMCG
-1.4%
1,109Personal
Care
-2.0%-1.2% 15.6% 11.9%2.7%14.3% 20.4%
Every week since COVID-19 outbreak, besides holiday weeks (15,16,18), marked more than 1 Billion NIS FMCG sales Weeks 19-20 which mark the new norm, are still showing sales larger than the 1 Billion mark, a mark that was surpassed
in previous years only in weeks that preceded major holidays
FMCG Weekly Value Sales Trend
1,077
1,345 1,295 1,120 1,166
914 839
1,074 907
1,015 1,017
10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Value Sales (Million NIS) FMCG - Epidemic Period 2020
883 942 902 849 914 1,042
1,172
695
1,030 909 956
10 - 03\03 11 - 10\03 12 - 17\03 13 - 24\03 14 - 31\03 15 - 07\04 16 - 14\04 17 - 21\04 18 - 28\04 19 - 05\05 20 - 12\05
Value Sales (Million NIS) FMCG - 2019
Sales by Channels During the epidemic period, the Convenience channel marked an 0.5 pp decrease compared to last year The two other channels showed value growth, while Neighborhood channel have grown in a higher pace than
Discount + Pharm channel, leading to a 1.6 pp increase
Channel Market
Share66.9% 65.8% 30.7% 32.4% 2.3% 1.9%
6,891
3,162
241
7,742
3,807
218
Discount + Pharm Neighborhood Convenience
Value Sales (Million NIS) by channels Weeks 10-20 2019
Weeks 10-20 2020
Holidays During COVID-19
A 19.4% FMCG value growth was registered in Passover, as much more people spent the holidays at home, when internal and international travel were stopped due to COVID-19 outbreak
The holiday categories marked a mixed trend, as the smaller holiday dinners and lack of hosting caused a decline in Pralines and a only a moderate increase in Wine
Passover
Value Sales (Million NIS)
4,666
5,571
FMCG
60.034.1
87.6
41.118.6
7.1 8.9 1.5
68.9
40.6
89.3
44.1
11.2 7.5 6.1 1.9
Matzah Tirosh GrapeJuice
Wine (withoutTirosh)
PassoverCookies
Pralines Gefiltefish Frozen Lamb Charoset
Passover 2019
Passover 2020
*Passover 2019 – 23/3/2019-26/4/2019**Passover 2020 – 12/3/2020-15/4/2020
68.1
22.6 15.12.6 1.6
57.3
16.4 14.32.1 1.0
Non AlcoholicBeverages
Beer BBQ Meat Charcoal Marshmallow
Independence Day 2019
Independence Day 20201,058 1,081
FMCG
A nationwide lockdown was implemented once again on Independence Day, as the inability to barbecue outside can be marked as the main reason for the decline in all of the holiday categories
Independence Day
Value Sales (Million NIS)
*Independence Day 2019 – 2/5/2019-8/5/2019**Independence Day 2020 – 22/4/2020-28/4/2020
Categories in Focus
Disposable Gloves and Hand & Surfaces Sanitizing categories marked a significant growth at the outbreak and are still showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average
While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales since week 17, Hand & Surfaces Sanitizing category is still showing mixed trend as week 20 alone is equal to 1/3 of 2019 sales
Disposable Gloves and Hand & Surfaces Sanitizing
0.34.8
12.08.8 7.0 5.1 3.1 2.9 3.4 3.3 4.9 3.6
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Hand & Surfaces Sanitizing – Value Sales (Million NIS)
1.1 1.73.6
6.45.1 4.7
2.7 1.9 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.6
Annual Average10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Disposable Gloves – Value Sales (Million NIS)
Canned Tuna, Rice and Pasta categories were leading the Hoarding trend during the first stage of the epidemic, with major increase in sales in weeks 10-12, peaking at week 11
Weeks 19-20 mark a lower than average sales in both Canned Tuna and Rice categories, as the higher sales in Pasta during weeks 19-20 are probably caused by early shopping for Shavuot and not hoarding
Hoarding Categories - Food
11.1 16.427.7 21.8
12.9 12.5 8.3 7.1 10.0 7.7 10.1 9.8
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Canned Tuna – Value Sales (Million NIS)
5.6 8.817.2 13.5
7.7 7.7 5.4 4.9 6.2 4.8 5.9 5.5
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Rice – Value Sales (Million NIS)
4.7 7.113.4
9.45.4 4.6 2.5 3.6
7.6 5.0 6.7 6.3
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Pasta – Value Sales (Million NIS)
52 Weeks Average
Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 Week 17 Week 18 Week 19 Week 20
Sunday 91% 94% 93% 86% 80% 75% 75% 80% 85% 91% 93% 95%
Monday 92% 94% 93% 82% 83% 76% 80% 86% 89% 93% 94% 95%
Tuesday 92% 93% 93% 85% 84% 81% 83% 88% 90% 93% 94% 96%
Wednesday 92% 94% 94% 87% 83% 82% 80% 56% 92% 79% 94% 96%
Thursday 92% 94% 94% 89% 84% 83% 56% 85% 93% 93% 95% 96%
Friday 92% 94% 94% 82% 79% 79% 77% 85% 93% 94% 94% 96%
Saturday 91% 90% 86% 61% 53% 50% 51% 65% 86% 88% 92% 93%
Eggs Category
20,207 22,646 27,082 25,951 25,713 25,863
19,030 22,944 23,833 20,415 22,804 22,103
Volume Sales (Thousand Units)
Weeks 12-14 mark a sharp decrease in eggs distribution, amid higher demand The egg market recovers fully towards weeks 19-20, as both volume sales and WD are higher than annual average
*Distribution – Percentage of stores that sold the product
Toilet Paper, Feminine Hygiene and Diapers led the Hoarding trend in non-food categories, as the sales of Toilet Paper in week 11 were 3 times higher than average week pre-epidemic
Both Toilet Paper and Feminine Hygiene categories stabilized, as their week 20 value sales are close to annual average Diapers category growth in week 20 is caused by promotional activity and not by hoarding
Hoarding Categories – Non-Food
8.2 9.013.9 12.7
8.6 8.0 6.0 6.5 7.6 6.0 7.3 8.9
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Feminine Hygiene – Value Sales (Million NIS)
11.5 15.434.6 26.6
13.9 11.7 7.5 7.4 9.6 8.2 10.1 11.2
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Toilet Paper – Value Sales (Million NIS)
11.8 12.619.6 14.7 8.8 9.8 7.4 7.5 10.4 9.8 10.4 13.7
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Diapers – Value Sales (Million NIS)
The long stay at home and the closed restaurants, cause a trend of home-cooking Unlike other categories, that reached their peak in week 11 and declined sharply afterwards, cooking categories
managed to keep higher than average sales through the whole period
Cooking Categories
8.9 11.318.5 17.6 14.3 14.6
9.9 9.9 11.4 10.0 11.3 10.2
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Regular Oils – Value Sales (Million NIS)
4.0 4.0 5.6 8.1 9.7 11.38.3
4.3 5.1 4.3 4.6 4.3
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Spices – Value Sales (Million NIS)
11.0 13.019.0 18.5 15.5 17.0 13.5 12.5 15.3 12.5 13.7 13.2
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Frozen Vegetables – Value Sales (Million NIS)
The home baking trend increases rapidly since the beginning of movement limitations and unlike other trends, baking categories’ sales in week 20 are still around 50% higher than annual average
These categories are expected to increase again, as we are reaching Shavuot shopping period
Baking Categories
4.7 6.09.6 11.2 11.2 13.1
9.0 7.7 10.0 7.2 7.5 6.4
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Flour – Value Sales (Million NIS)
0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.61.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Baking Products/Aids – Value Sales (Million NIS)
0.5 0.51.0 1.1 0.8 0.8
0.3
1.6 1.61.1 1.0 0.8
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Yeast – Value Sales (Million NIS)
On-the-Go categories suffered the most from movement limitations As the limitations started to be lifted, an increase in sales is evident as Gum and Cereal Snacks are getting closer to its
annual average, while Water Bottles manages to surpass it
On-the-Go Categories
5.1 6.3 5.53.8 2.9 2.7 2.0 2.5
4.2 3.4 4.3 4.7
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Non Sugar Gum –Value Sales (Million NIS)
5.0 5.7 5.64.0 3.2 2.9 1.8 2.1
4.0 3.4 4.3 4.5
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Adult Cereal Snacks (single + pack) –Value Sales (Million NIS)
2.9 2.9 3.31.9 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.9 1.6
2.5 3.0
שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05
Personal Water Bottle (single + pack)–Value Sales (Million NIS)
03.03.2019 10.03.2019 17.03.2019 24.03.2020 31.03.2020 07.04.2019 14.04.2019 21.04.2019 28.04.2019 05.05.2019 12.05.2019
01.03.2020 08.03.2020 15.03.2020 22.03.2020 29.03.2020 5.04.2020 12.04.2020 19.04.2020 26.04.2020 03.05.2020 10.05.2020Epidemic
weeks
Last Year
Weeks 10-20 in both periods include the same holidays and shopping periods (Purim, Passover, Independence Day)
COVID Timeline & Significant Events – Summery
Weeks 10-12COVID-19 outbreak in Israel
Weeks 13-14The start of movement
limitations
Weeks 15-16Passover - Lockdown
Weeks 17-18Post-Passover
Independence Day
Weeks 19-20Coronavirus Routine
Gatherings up to 5,000 people Mandatory Quarantine for
those returning from abroad Closure of schools and all
educational institutions
Only essential businesses open
Work from home is encouraged when possible
Movement Limitations
Passover lockdown – the holiday is celebrated with nuclear family only
Gradual Return to Work/Offices –“Purple Badge”
Independence Day lockdown
Return to educational institutions
Cancelation of movement limitations
Lag Ba’Omer without campfires
SignificantEvents
Increased hoarding of products with a long expiry date especially in discount stores
The switch to Neighborhood channel
Increased sales of all the holiday categories (besides hosting – pralines, wine)
Lower than average weekly sales, as a result of less shopping days
Neighborhood channel keeps growing in share
Convenience channel reaches it’s lowest point
Higher than average sales
Independence Days categories are decreasing compared to last year, as movement limitations continue
The share of Discount + Pharm channel is back to average
Convenience channel recovers
Cooking and Bakingsproducts sales are still high
FMCGMarket
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