COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much...

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COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 10/05-16/05

Transcript of COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much...

Page 1: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE

Impact on the FMCG market

Week 20 – 10/05-16/05

Page 2: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

FMCG Market Trend vs Average MAT

Week 20 marks an 11.0% increase compared to 52 weeks average (based on 52 weeks until week 10 included) The increase comes from all the fields

*All the data is compared to 52 weeks average - week 11 2019 to week 10 2020

20.8%

723Foods

4.3%

107Beverages

19.0%

81Home Care

16.7%

1,017

FMCG

-1.4%

107Personal

Care

-2.0%-1.2% 9.8% 17.7%12.0%11.0% 11.7%

Page 3: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

748.5

95.9 91.6 78.8

722.9

106.7 106.7 80.8

מזון משקאות טיפוח הפרט מוצרים לבית

Value Sales (Millions NIS)19 - 03\05

20 - 10\05

FMCG trend vs last week

מכר FMCGמול שבוע קודם Week 20 mark a stagnation (+0.2%) compared to week 19, as Foods is the only field that’s declining

Page 4: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

Daily Trend

Week 20 daily sales are higher than annual average, in every day except Saturday The trend of week 20 compared to week 19 is a mixed one

124

160

153

179

217

156

27

129 155

165

184 206

153

24

113124

144165

192

151

28

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

Value Sales FMCG (Million NIS)20 - 10\05

19 - 03\05

Last 52 weeks Average

Page 5: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

Sales Trend by Channels

* *% Change*All the data is compared to 52 weeks average - week 11 2019 to week 10 2020

The Convenience channel is the fastest growing channel, for the first time since COVID-19 outbreak, with 15% growth compared to annual average

This increase comes as movement limitations are lifted and the weather is getting warmer

61

2.9

42

6.5

54

.1

54

.4

77

.9

67

7.4

46

5.2

58

.6

60

.5

93

.2

Discount + Pharm

28

0.9

21

9.2

31

.9

17

.2

12

.6

31

3.7

24

4.6

36

.8

19

.2

13

.2

Neighborhood

22

.6

12

.4 9.3

0.7

0.3

26

.0

13

.1

11

.4

1.2

0.3

Convenience

Page 6: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

Channel split Week 20 marks another week in which the share of Discount + Pharm channel is close to annual average The Neighborhood channel marks it’s lowest share since COVID-19 outbreak, as movement limitations are eased Week 20 marks the first time in the period when Convenience channel’s share is higher than annual average

66.8% 66.3% 65.9%

60.0% 60.5%

66.5%62.8%

66.7% 66.6%

2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.6%

30.7% 32.2% 32.6%

38.2% 37.3%

31.7%35.0%

31.2% 30.8%

52 WeeksAverage

13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Value Share FMCG

Discount +Pharm

Convenience

Neighborhood

Page 7: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

COVID-19

Effects on FMCG Market

Page 8: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

03.03.2019 10.03.2019 17.03.2019 24.03.2020 31.03.2020 07.04.2019 14.04.2019 21.04.2019 28.04.2019 05.05.2019 12.05.2019

01.03.2020 08.03.2020 15.03.2020 22.03.2020 29.03.2020 5.04.2020 12.04.2020 19.04.2020 26.04.2020 03.05.2020 10.05.2020Epidemic

weeks

Last Year

Weeks 10-20 in both periods include the same holidays and shopping periods (Purim, Passover, Independence Day)

COVID Timeline & Significant Events

Weeks 10-12COVID-19 outbreak in Israel

Weeks 13-14The start of movement

limitations

Weeks 15-16Passover - Lockdown

Weeks 17-18Post-Passover

Independence Day

Weeks 19-20Coronavirus Routine

Gatherings up to 5,000 people Mandatory Quarantine for

those returning from abroad Closure of schools and all

educational institutions

Only essential businesses open

Work from home is encouraged when possible

Movement Limitations

Passover lockdown – the holiday is celebrated with nuclear family only

Gradual Return to Work/Offices –“Purple Badge”

Independence Day lockdown

Return to educational institutions

Cancelation of movement limitations

Lag Ba’Omer without campfires

SignificantEvents

Page 9: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

Fields and Channels Trends

Page 10: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

FMCG Market Trend vs Last Year

The epidemic period marks a 14.3% growth and 1.47 Billion NIS value increase in FMCG sales compared to last year The growth comes from all the fields, the growth in Beverages in the most moderate

*Weeks 10-20 2020 are compared to weeks 10-20 2019

20.8%

8,528Foods

4.3%

1,111Beverages

19.0%

1,020Home Care

16.7%

11,767FMCG

-1.4%

1,109Personal

Care

-2.0%-1.2% 15.6% 11.9%2.7%14.3% 20.4%

Page 11: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

Every week since COVID-19 outbreak, besides holiday weeks (15,16,18), marked more than 1 Billion NIS FMCG sales Weeks 19-20 which mark the new norm, are still showing sales larger than the 1 Billion mark, a mark that was surpassed

in previous years only in weeks that preceded major holidays

FMCG Weekly Value Sales Trend

1,077

1,345 1,295 1,120 1,166

914 839

1,074 907

1,015 1,017

10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Value Sales (Million NIS) FMCG - Epidemic Period 2020

883 942 902 849 914 1,042

1,172

695

1,030 909 956

10 - 03\03 11 - 10\03 12 - 17\03 13 - 24\03 14 - 31\03 15 - 07\04 16 - 14\04 17 - 21\04 18 - 28\04 19 - 05\05 20 - 12\05

Value Sales (Million NIS) FMCG - 2019

Page 12: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

Sales by Channels During the epidemic period, the Convenience channel marked an 0.5 pp decrease compared to last year The two other channels showed value growth, while Neighborhood channel have grown in a higher pace than

Discount + Pharm channel, leading to a 1.6 pp increase

Channel Market

Share66.9% 65.8% 30.7% 32.4% 2.3% 1.9%

6,891

3,162

241

7,742

3,807

218

Discount + Pharm Neighborhood Convenience

Value Sales (Million NIS) by channels Weeks 10-20 2019

Weeks 10-20 2020

Page 13: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

Holidays During COVID-19

Page 14: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

A 19.4% FMCG value growth was registered in Passover, as much more people spent the holidays at home, when internal and international travel were stopped due to COVID-19 outbreak

The holiday categories marked a mixed trend, as the smaller holiday dinners and lack of hosting caused a decline in Pralines and a only a moderate increase in Wine

Passover

Value Sales (Million NIS)

4,666

5,571

FMCG

60.034.1

87.6

41.118.6

7.1 8.9 1.5

68.9

40.6

89.3

44.1

11.2 7.5 6.1 1.9

Matzah Tirosh GrapeJuice

Wine (withoutTirosh)

PassoverCookies

Pralines Gefiltefish Frozen Lamb Charoset

Passover 2019

Passover 2020

*Passover 2019 – 23/3/2019-26/4/2019**Passover 2020 – 12/3/2020-15/4/2020

Page 15: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

68.1

22.6 15.12.6 1.6

57.3

16.4 14.32.1 1.0

Non AlcoholicBeverages

Beer BBQ Meat Charcoal Marshmallow

Independence Day 2019

Independence Day 20201,058 1,081

FMCG

A nationwide lockdown was implemented once again on Independence Day, as the inability to barbecue outside can be marked as the main reason for the decline in all of the holiday categories

Independence Day

Value Sales (Million NIS)

*Independence Day 2019 – 2/5/2019-8/5/2019**Independence Day 2020 – 22/4/2020-28/4/2020

Page 16: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

Categories in Focus

Page 17: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

Disposable Gloves and Hand & Surfaces Sanitizing categories marked a significant growth at the outbreak and are still showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average

While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales since week 17, Hand & Surfaces Sanitizing category is still showing mixed trend as week 20 alone is equal to 1/3 of 2019 sales

Disposable Gloves and Hand & Surfaces Sanitizing

0.34.8

12.08.8 7.0 5.1 3.1 2.9 3.4 3.3 4.9 3.6

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Hand & Surfaces Sanitizing – Value Sales (Million NIS)

1.1 1.73.6

6.45.1 4.7

2.7 1.9 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.6

Annual Average10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Disposable Gloves – Value Sales (Million NIS)

Page 18: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

Canned Tuna, Rice and Pasta categories were leading the Hoarding trend during the first stage of the epidemic, with major increase in sales in weeks 10-12, peaking at week 11

Weeks 19-20 mark a lower than average sales in both Canned Tuna and Rice categories, as the higher sales in Pasta during weeks 19-20 are probably caused by early shopping for Shavuot and not hoarding

Hoarding Categories - Food

11.1 16.427.7 21.8

12.9 12.5 8.3 7.1 10.0 7.7 10.1 9.8

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Canned Tuna – Value Sales (Million NIS)

5.6 8.817.2 13.5

7.7 7.7 5.4 4.9 6.2 4.8 5.9 5.5

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Rice – Value Sales (Million NIS)

4.7 7.113.4

9.45.4 4.6 2.5 3.6

7.6 5.0 6.7 6.3

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Pasta – Value Sales (Million NIS)

Page 19: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

52 Weeks Average

Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 Week 17 Week 18 Week 19 Week 20

Sunday 91% 94% 93% 86% 80% 75% 75% 80% 85% 91% 93% 95%

Monday 92% 94% 93% 82% 83% 76% 80% 86% 89% 93% 94% 95%

Tuesday 92% 93% 93% 85% 84% 81% 83% 88% 90% 93% 94% 96%

Wednesday 92% 94% 94% 87% 83% 82% 80% 56% 92% 79% 94% 96%

Thursday 92% 94% 94% 89% 84% 83% 56% 85% 93% 93% 95% 96%

Friday 92% 94% 94% 82% 79% 79% 77% 85% 93% 94% 94% 96%

Saturday 91% 90% 86% 61% 53% 50% 51% 65% 86% 88% 92% 93%

Eggs Category

20,207 22,646 27,082 25,951 25,713 25,863

19,030 22,944 23,833 20,415 22,804 22,103

Volume Sales (Thousand Units)

Weeks 12-14 mark a sharp decrease in eggs distribution, amid higher demand The egg market recovers fully towards weeks 19-20, as both volume sales and WD are higher than annual average

*Distribution – Percentage of stores that sold the product

Page 20: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

Toilet Paper, Feminine Hygiene and Diapers led the Hoarding trend in non-food categories, as the sales of Toilet Paper in week 11 were 3 times higher than average week pre-epidemic

Both Toilet Paper and Feminine Hygiene categories stabilized, as their week 20 value sales are close to annual average Diapers category growth in week 20 is caused by promotional activity and not by hoarding

Hoarding Categories – Non-Food

8.2 9.013.9 12.7

8.6 8.0 6.0 6.5 7.6 6.0 7.3 8.9

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Feminine Hygiene – Value Sales (Million NIS)

11.5 15.434.6 26.6

13.9 11.7 7.5 7.4 9.6 8.2 10.1 11.2

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Toilet Paper – Value Sales (Million NIS)

11.8 12.619.6 14.7 8.8 9.8 7.4 7.5 10.4 9.8 10.4 13.7

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Diapers – Value Sales (Million NIS)

Page 21: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

The long stay at home and the closed restaurants, cause a trend of home-cooking Unlike other categories, that reached their peak in week 11 and declined sharply afterwards, cooking categories

managed to keep higher than average sales through the whole period

Cooking Categories

8.9 11.318.5 17.6 14.3 14.6

9.9 9.9 11.4 10.0 11.3 10.2

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Regular Oils – Value Sales (Million NIS)

4.0 4.0 5.6 8.1 9.7 11.38.3

4.3 5.1 4.3 4.6 4.3

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Spices – Value Sales (Million NIS)

11.0 13.019.0 18.5 15.5 17.0 13.5 12.5 15.3 12.5 13.7 13.2

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Frozen Vegetables – Value Sales (Million NIS)

Page 22: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

The home baking trend increases rapidly since the beginning of movement limitations and unlike other trends, baking categories’ sales in week 20 are still around 50% higher than annual average

These categories are expected to increase again, as we are reaching Shavuot shopping period

Baking Categories

4.7 6.09.6 11.2 11.2 13.1

9.0 7.7 10.0 7.2 7.5 6.4

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Flour – Value Sales (Million NIS)

0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.61.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Baking Products/Aids – Value Sales (Million NIS)

0.5 0.51.0 1.1 0.8 0.8

0.3

1.6 1.61.1 1.0 0.8

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Yeast – Value Sales (Million NIS)

Page 23: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

On-the-Go categories suffered the most from movement limitations As the limitations started to be lifted, an increase in sales is evident as Gum and Cereal Snacks are getting closer to its

annual average, while Water Bottles manages to surpass it

On-the-Go Categories

5.1 6.3 5.53.8 2.9 2.7 2.0 2.5

4.2 3.4 4.3 4.7

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Non Sugar Gum –Value Sales (Million NIS)

5.0 5.7 5.64.0 3.2 2.9 1.8 2.1

4.0 3.4 4.3 4.5

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Adult Cereal Snacks (single + pack) –Value Sales (Million NIS)

2.9 2.9 3.31.9 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.9 1.6

2.5 3.0

שבועות52ממוצע 10 - 01\03 11 - 08\03 12 - 15\03 13 - 22\03 14 - 29\03 15 - 05\04 16 - 12\04 17 - 19\04 18 - 26\04 19 - 03\05 20 - 10\05

Personal Water Bottle (single + pack)–Value Sales (Million NIS)

Page 24: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

03.03.2019 10.03.2019 17.03.2019 24.03.2020 31.03.2020 07.04.2019 14.04.2019 21.04.2019 28.04.2019 05.05.2019 12.05.2019

01.03.2020 08.03.2020 15.03.2020 22.03.2020 29.03.2020 5.04.2020 12.04.2020 19.04.2020 26.04.2020 03.05.2020 10.05.2020Epidemic

weeks

Last Year

Weeks 10-20 in both periods include the same holidays and shopping periods (Purim, Passover, Independence Day)

COVID Timeline & Significant Events – Summery

Weeks 10-12COVID-19 outbreak in Israel

Weeks 13-14The start of movement

limitations

Weeks 15-16Passover - Lockdown

Weeks 17-18Post-Passover

Independence Day

Weeks 19-20Coronavirus Routine

Gatherings up to 5,000 people Mandatory Quarantine for

those returning from abroad Closure of schools and all

educational institutions

Only essential businesses open

Work from home is encouraged when possible

Movement Limitations

Passover lockdown – the holiday is celebrated with nuclear family only

Gradual Return to Work/Offices –“Purple Badge”

Independence Day lockdown

Return to educational institutions

Cancelation of movement limitations

Lag Ba’Omer without campfires

SignificantEvents

Increased hoarding of products with a long expiry date especially in discount stores

The switch to Neighborhood channel

Increased sales of all the holiday categories (besides hosting – pralines, wine)

Lower than average weekly sales, as a result of less shopping days

Neighborhood channel keeps growing in share

Convenience channel reaches it’s lowest point

Higher than average sales

Independence Days categories are decreasing compared to last year, as movement limitations continue

The share of Discount + Pharm channel is back to average

Convenience channel recovers

Cooking and Bakingsproducts sales are still high

FMCGMarket

Page 25: COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE Impact on the FMCG market Week 20 · showing weekly sales that are much higher than the annual average While Disposable Gloves category decreases in value sales

Thanks!