Wednesday’s highs straddled Dow 11,491 and SPX 1210.7.

8/6/2019 Wednesday’s highs straddled Dow 11,491 and SPX 1210.7.

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

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August 18, 2011 – Wednes day’s highs st rad dled Dow 11,491 and SPX 1210.7.

How I use my proprietary analytics to judge the risk / reward for the major equity averages. At

the end of 2010 and based upon the past nine annual closes the major equity averages began2011 straddling new annual pivots at 11,491 Dow Industrials, 1210.7 SPX, 2335 NASDAQ, 5179Dow Transports and 784.16 Russell 2000. The 2010 closes were just below the levels onTransports and Russell, and above on the other three. Weekly closes above the levels forTransports and Russell signaled early-year strength. I did not like the markets because of aValuEngine Valuation Warning on February 18th and a ValuEngine Valuation Watch on May 2nd.Then in July the Transports reached a new all time high and the Industrials did not follow. Bydefinition annual pivots are magnets and this year the force was to pull the markets lower. TheTransports led stocks lower as the August 1st close was below 5179. On August 2nd the Russel2000 closed below 784.16. On August 4th the Industrials and SPX closed below 11,491 and1210.7. This cascade action indicated risk to 2335 on NASDAQ, which held on August 9 th. You

can clearly see why it’s important for the Dow and SPX to close back above 11,491 and 1210.7.10-Year Note – (2.163) Semiannual, weekly, annual and quarterly value levels are 2.414, 2.576, 2.690and 3.053 with the Dec 2008 low at 2.016, and daily and semiannual risky levels at 1.910 and 1.672.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters



Comex Gold – ($1794.1) Weekly, quarterly and semiannual value levels are $1685.9, $1655.8 and$1644.8 with the August 11th all time high at $1817.6, and daily risky level at $1872.0.


Nymex Crude Oil – ($87.51) The 200-week simple moving average is $83.96 with a daily value levelat $82.49, the June 27th low at $89.61, a weekly risky level at $92.09, my annual pivots at $99.91 and

$101.92 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $102.40 and $103.92.




The Euro – (1.4438) Weekly and quarterly value levels are 1.4229 and 1.3728 with a daily pivot at1.4365, and semiannual risky level at 1.4752.


Daily Dow: (11,410) The 200-week simple moving average is 10,742 with a daily value level at10,976, my annual pivot at 11,491, and weekly risky level at 12,098. Semiannual value levels are9,635 and 8,468 with prior chart lows as overhead resistances at 11,555 and 11,862.




S&P 500 – (1193.9) My daily value level is 1144.9 with my annual pivot at 1210.7 and weekly riskylevel at 1275.7. Chart resistances: 1250 and 1258. Semiannual value levels are 981.3 and 855.7 with

monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1444.1, 1467.0 and 1562.9.NASDAQ – (2511) Daily and annual value levels are 2428 and 2335 with weekly risky level is 2780.Chart resistance: 2600. Annual and semiannual value levels are 2335, 2199 and 2049 with monthly,quarterly and annual risky levels at 3038, 3109 and 3243.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (2182) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 2120, 1951, 1861 and1723 with weekly, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 2405, 2553, 2590 and 2630.

Dow Transports – (4577) Daily and semiannual value levels are 4401, 4335 and 3868 with chartresistances at 4906 and 5043, and weekly and annual risky levels at 5109 and 5179.

Russell 2000 – (704.03) Daily and semiannual value levels are 670.29, 577.47 and 530.04 with chart

resistance at 772.62, and annual, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 784.16, 788.85910.11, 930.83 and 978.58.

The SOX – (353.10) Annual and semiannual value levels are 270.98, 258.97 and 204.67 with a dailypivot at 351.82, chart resistance at 381.62 and weekly risky level at 383.44.

Equity Fundamentals – Stocks are cheap, but not as cheap as in March 2009.• 82.4% of all stocks are undervalued / 17.6% of all stocks are overvalued. In March 2009, 91.1%

of all stocks were undervalued.• All sixteen sectors are undervalued, fifteen by double-digit percentages. Back in March 2009

the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. Six sectors are undervalued by more than 20% -find out which ones at www.ValuEngine.com.

Another market negative is the formation of the “Death Cross”: This occurs when the 50-daysimple moving average declines below the 200-day with both declining. In the bull market these weresupports. In the bear market these are resistances. The first “Death Cross” came in the SOX on July15th. The S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 had their death crosses last Friday. The Transportshad a death cross on Monday. The Dow Industrial Average has not had its death cross yet as the50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 12,074 and 11,996.

VE Morning Briefing – If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a FearlessPrediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

ValuTrader Model Portfolio – If you want to learn how to “Buy and Trade” use this link and sign up:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V

ETF Weekly – If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds usethis link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report – In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly BankingProfile. My August report will be published today. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banksin this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C



Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slowstochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions

• Value Level – The price at which you establish an additional long position on share priceweakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.

• Risky Level – The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength tothe Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions

• Value Level – The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multipleshort position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weaknesto the Value Level.

• Risky Level – The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go tohttp://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”

Wednesday’s highs straddled Dow 11,491 and SPX 1210.7.

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