Webinar 4 - Central Bank Heist

7/24/2019 Webinar 4 - Central Bank Heist

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All opinions expressed by the webinar participants are solely their opinions. You should not

treat any opinion expressed on this webinar as a specific inducement to make a particular

investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. You must

make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned on this webinar.

Before acting on information on this webinar, you should consider whether it is suitable for your

particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or

investment adviser.


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Peter Boockvar is the Co-Chief Investment officer at Bookmark Advisors. He is also the

Chief Market Analyst with The Lindsey Group, a macro economic and market research firm.

tickerdistrict.com/the-boock-report/
http://tickerdistrict.com/home/the-boock-report/http://tickerdistrict.com/home/the-boock-report/


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!Friday, March 4th- Non Farm Payrolls

!Thursday, March 10th- ECB policy meeting

!Tuesday, March 15th- BOJ policy meeting

!Wednesday, March 16th - FOMC policy meeting

March: Lion or Lamb?


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!Taking into account the three Central bank meetings the options market is

implying about a 3.5% move in the S&P 500 in either direction between now and

March 18th expiration

!This is essentially double the expected move over a three week periodwithout such events.

!Which central bank do you expect to cause the most volatility in risk assets

globally?

!Do you think that the divergent monetary policy of ECB/ BOJ and FOMC hasthe chance to balance each other out or is the rally into the events weve

already seen in equities setting up for a volatile situation?

How Volatile Will March Be?


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SPY Volatility


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VIX 1 Year


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10 year VIX vs SPX


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How Do Investors Price This?

!Given all the effects of these Central Banks moves what is the correct

multiple for the S&P?

!What do you think is the ultimate fate of the equity market?


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SPX 1 Year


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SPX 8 Year


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SPX 17 Year


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China and Commodities

!Is there a more misunderstood central bank than Chinas?

!And while we are talking China why doesnt anyone recognize the rally going

on in commodities that is rooted in real demand dynamics in oil, grains andagriculture.

!Or the recovery in oversupply related commodities like ore, steel, copper?


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1 Year Shanghai Comp


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10 Year CRB (Commodities)


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Lets Talk Gold and the Dollar

!So far central bank policies (i.e. negative rates) have been very positive for

gold, despite a stronger/stable dollar.

!Is this trend set to continue or does a strong dollar derail the rally?

!What is the fate of the dollar?


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10 Year Gold


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1 Year Dollar Index (DXY)


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16 Year Dollar Index (DXY)


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!They say the bond market predicts equities. Where I struggle is should I

watch T-bills and which ones, muni's, corporate or high yield? And what does

high yield mean? - Rod

!People have been talking about the decoupling of oil and the market

direction. Was today a sign of the start of that. - Jorge

!All commodities I look at are near multi-year lows. Grains, metals, oil, etc.

therefore to me the next major move in commodities will be up, not down (atleast in a major way). Therefore, isnt inflation is in the future? - Paul

!Will ZIRP kill pension funds & insurance companies? - Bruce

!If China devalues 20-30% overnight (I know this is hypothetical), what would

ripple effects be globally? Curious to hear your hypothetical scenarios. - Ryan

!What kind of black swans would most surprise you? And what kind of events

would cause you to change your overall view? - Mark

Your Questions

Webinar 4 - Central Bank Heist

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Transcript of Webinar 4 - Central Bank Heist