Wave Data Key Generic Findings March 2010
77
Generics Generics and Generic Pricing and Generic Pricing Charles Joynson
Transcript of Wave Data Key Generic Findings March 2010
GenericsGenericsand Generic Pricingand Generic Pricing
Charles Joynson
Topics to be coveredTopics to be covered
• Data Sources• Price Decay• Price Bounces• Seasonality• Generic Company Strategy• Generic Data• Exchange Rate• Brand Equalisation• Retail vs. Dispensing• Forecasting• Evergreening
Data SourcesData Sources
Internet Suppliers
Generic Manufacturers
Wholesalers
Ethical Manufacturers
Importers
Dispensing GPs
RetailPharmacy
Price DecayPrice Decay
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Feb-0
3
Mar
-03
Apr-0
3
May
-03
Jun-
03
Jul-0
3
Aug-0
3
Sep-0
3
Oct-03
Nov-0
3
Dec-0
3
Jan-
04
Feb-0
4
Mar
-04
Apr-0
4
May
-04
Jun-
04
Jul-0
4
Aug-0
4
Sep-0
4
Oct-04
Nov-0
4
Dec-0
4
Jan-
05
Feb-0
5
Mar
-05
Apr-0
5
May
-05
Jun-
05
Jul-0
5
Aug-0
5
Month
£
Other ProductsOther Products
Price BouncesPrice Bounces
Monthly Average PercentAmoxicillin Caps 250mg 21
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Aug
-00
Dec
-00
Apr
-01
Aug
-01
Dec
-01
Apr
-02
Aug
-02
Dec
-02
Apr
-03
Aug
-03
Dec
-03
Apr
-04
Aug
-04
Dec
-04
Apr
-05
Aug
-05
Dec
-05
Apr
-06
Aug
-06
Dec
-06
Month
%
SeasonalitySeasonality
Seasonality - OmeprazoleSeasonality - Omeprazole
Oct 02- Sep 06
Seasonality - CiprofloxacinSeasonality - Ciprofloxacin
Jan 03 – Dec 05
Seasonality - LevothyroxineSeasonality - Levothyroxine
Levothyroxine Tabs 100mcg 28
0.9000
0.9200
0.9400
0.9600
0.9800
1.0000
1.0200
January
Febru
ary
Marc
h
April
May
June
July
August
Septe
mber
Octo
ber
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Oct 00-Sep 06
Seasonality - AtenololSeasonality - Atenolol
Atenolol Tabs 50mg 28
0.90000.92000.94000.96000.98001.00001.02001.04001.06001.08001.1000
January
Febru
ary
Marc
h
April
May
June
July
August
Septe
mber
Octo
ber
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Oct 00-Sep 06
Jan 01- Dec 05
Seasonality - SimvastatinSeasonality - Simvastatin
Simvastatin Tabs 80mg 28
0.9600
0.9800
1.0000
1.0200
1.0400
January
Febru
ary
Marc
h
April
May
June
July
August
Septe
mber
Octo
ber
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Oct 03-Sep 06
Seasonality - LisinoprilSeasonality - Lisinopril
Lisinopril Tabs 5mg 28
0.9000
0.9200
0.9400
0.9600
0.9800
1.0000
1.0200
1.0400
1.0600
January
Febru
ary
Marc
h
April
May
June
July
August
Septe
mber
Octo
ber
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Jan 01 – Dec 05
Generic Company StrategyGeneric Company Strategy
Growth in numbers of manufacturers
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Month after generic launch
%
Generic DataGeneric Data
Exchange RateExchange Rate
Brand EqualisationBrand Equalisation
Retail vs. DispensingRetail vs. Dispensing
ForecastingForecasting
How do companies forecast How do companies forecast generic prices?generic prices?
Some just react to market Some just react to market changeschanges
Fitting trends to pricesFitting trends to prices
But reality was differentBut reality was different
Same Therapeutic CatSame Therapeutic CatSelective Serotonin Re-Uptake Inhibitors
Month after launch
Citalopram Tabs 20mg28Paroxetine Tabs 20mg30
Same TherapeuticCategory,
But DifferentDecay Rates
Selective Serotonin Re-Uptake Inhibitors
Month after launch
Citalopram Tabs 20mg 28
Paroxetine Tabs 20mg 30
Selective Serotonin Re-Uptake Inhibitors
Same Market ValueSame Market Value£450 - £550 000
Months after launch
Quinapril Tabs 10mg 28
Nicardipine Caps 20mg 56
Same Value,But DifferentDecay Rates
£450,000 - £550,000
£450 - £550 000
Months after launch
Quinapril Tabs 10mg 28
Nicardipine Caps 20mg 56
Same moleculeSame moleculeOne Molecule But NO Uniformity!
Fluconazole Caps 150mg 1
Fluconazole Caps 200mg 7
Fluconazole Caps 50mg 7
Same MoleculeBut
No Uniformity
One Molecule But NO Uniformity!
Fluconazole Caps 150mg 1
Fluconazole Caps 200mg 7
Fluconazole Caps 50mg 7
Fluconazole Caps
PatternsPatterns & Relationships& Relationships
£ ?Generic Price
Volume
Market Share
Value
Brand Generic Spilt
No of Manufacturers
Reimbursement
Statisticians found each Statisticians found each product can be modelledproduct can be modelled
0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
Sep-0
0
Mar
-01
Sep-0
1
Mar
-02
Sep-0
2
Mar
-03
Sep-0
3
Mar
-04
Sep-0
4
Mar
-05
Sep-0
5
Mar
-06
Simvastatin Tabs10mg 28
Predicted
0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
May-0
2Sep
-02
Jan-
03May
-03
Sep-0
3Ja
n-04
May-0
4Sep
-04
Jan-
05May
-05
Sep-0
5Ja
n-06
Omeprazole Caps 40mg 7
Predicted
Multiple models were produced,Multiple models were produced,one for each productone for each product
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
Jun-
04
Aug-0
4
Oct-0
4
Dec
-04
Feb-05
Apr-0
5
Jun-
05
Aug-0
5
Oct-0
5
Dec
-05
Feb-06
Apr-0
6
A1002
Predicted
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
Mar
-02
Jul-0
2
Nov
-02
Mar
-03
Jul-0
3
Nov
-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov
-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov
-05
Mar
-06
A1021
Predicted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep-0
4
Nov
-04
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep-0
5
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
A1010
Predicted
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
Jan-
04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep
-04
Nov
-04
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep
-05
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
A1011
Predicted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9A
ug-0
0
Dec-0
0
Apr-
01
Aug-0
1
Dec-0
1
Apr-
02
Aug-0
2
Dec-0
2
Apr-
03
Aug-0
3
Dec-0
3
Apr-
04
Aug-0
4
Dec-0
4
Apr-
05
Aug-0
5
Dec-0
5
Apr-
06
A1012
Predicted
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Mar-02
Jul-02
Nov
-02
Mar-03
Jul-03
Nov
-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov
-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov
-05
Mar-06
A1013
Predicted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Ma
r-0
2
Ju
n-0
2
Se
p-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Ju
n-0
3
Se
p-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Ju
n-0
4
Se
p-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Ju
n-0
5
Se
p-0
5
De
c-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
A1014
Predicted
0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
Dec-0
0
Apr-
01
Aug-0
1
Dec-0
1
Apr-
02
Aug-0
2
Dec-0
2
Apr-
03
Aug-0
3
Dec-0
3
Apr-
04
Aug-0
4
Dec-0
4
Apr-
05
Aug-0
5
Dec-0
5
Apr-
06
A1015
Predicted
0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
May-0
2Sep
-02
Jan-
03May
-03
Sep-0
3Ja
n-04
May-0
4Sep
-04
Jan-
05May
-05
Sep-0
5Ja
n-06
Omeprazole Caps 40mg 7
Predicted
Each with its own formulaEach with its own formula
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
Jun-
04
Aug-0
4
Oct-0
4
Dec
-04
Feb-05
Apr-0
5
Jun-
05
Aug-0
5
Oct-0
5
Dec
-05
Feb-06
Apr-0
6
A1002
Predicted
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
Mar
-02
Jul-0
2
Nov
-02
Mar
-03
Jul-0
3
Nov
-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov
-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov
-05
Mar
-06
A1021
Predicted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep-0
4
Nov
-04
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep-0
5
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
A1010
Predicted
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
Jan-
04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep
-04
Nov
-04
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep
-05
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
A1011
Predicted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9A
ug-0
0
Dec-0
0
Apr-
01
Aug-0
1
Dec-0
1
Apr-
02
Aug-0
2
Dec-0
2
Apr-
03
Aug-0
3
Dec-0
3
Apr-
04
Aug-0
4
Dec-0
4
Apr-
05
Aug-0
5
Dec-0
5
Apr-
06
A1012
Predicted
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Mar-02
Jul-02
Nov
-02
Mar-03
Jul-03
Nov
-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov
-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov
-05
Mar-06
A1013
Predicted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Ma
r-0
2
Ju
n-0
2
Se
p-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Ju
n-0
3
Se
p-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Ju
n-0
4
Se
p-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Ju
n-0
5
Se
p-0
5
De
c-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
A1014
Predicted
0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
Dec-0
0
Apr-
01
Aug-0
1
Dec-0
1
Apr-
02
Aug-0
2
Dec-0
2
Apr-
03
Aug-0
3
Dec-0
3
Apr-
04
Aug-0
4
Dec-0
4
Apr-
05
Aug-0
5
Dec-0
5
Apr-
06
A1015
Predicted
Statistical ModelsStatistical Models
• 2005, 2007 & 2008
• Linear dynamic models
• One for ourselves and two for clients
EvergreeningEvergreening
Many ThanksMany Thanks
