ARAB BAROMETER: SELECTED FINDINGS

WAVE TWO (2011) and WAVE ONE

(2006)

ISLAM AND THE STRUGGLE FOR A POLITICAL FORMULA:

FINDINGS FROM THE 2010-2011 ARAB BAROMETER

Mark TesslerUniversity of Michigan

Why Islam?Arabs and Muslims often say that Westerners are obsessed with Islam, believing that it breeds extremism and violence – the so-called Clash of Civilizations thesis. But while Arabs and Muslims are correct to complain that misinformation and stereotypes sometimes characterize Western thinking about Islam, the place of religion in the governance of Arab countries is in fact an important, and contested, issue in domestic Arab politics – and now more than ever.

• Ali Gomaa, the Grand Mufti of Egypt: “Egypt’s revolution has swept away decades of authoritarian rule but has also highlighted an issue that Egyptians will grapple with as they consolidate their democracy: the role of religion in political life.”

• Hamadi Jebali, Secretary General of Tunisia’s al-Nahda Party (and now Tunisian prime minister): “What kind of Democracy for the New Tunisia: Islamic or Secular?”

• Tariq Harb, Iraqi constitutional lawyer and media personality: “A central element in the struggle to define Iraq’s emergent democracy is the question of how “to balance religion and secularism.”

Arab Barometer: Second Wave

Most surveys used area probability sampling.

Data are weighted by age and education when needed.

** Being “corrected” and not included in present analysis.

All Countriesa

Men of religion should have influence over government decisions

Column Percent

Cumulative Percent

Strongly Agree 11.5 11.5Agree 31.3 42.8

Disagree 42.3 85.1Strongly Disagree 14.9 100.0

 Religion is a private matter and should be separated from socio-political life

Column Percent

Cumulative Percent

Strongly Disagree 13.0 13.0Disagree 25.2 38.2

Agree 37.4 75.6Strongly Agree 24.4 100.0

Support for Islam in Politics and Society

aNine countries, pooled analysis; weighted to adjust for sample size differences; only Muslim respondents included.

CountryDate of Survey

Men of religion should have influence over

government decisions (Str. Agr./Agr. Average 43%)

Religion is a private matter and should be separated from socio-

political life (Str. Dis./Dis. Average 38%)

Jordan

Dec. 2010 46% 45%

Palestine

Dec. 2010 42% 48%

Sudan

Dec. 2010 57% 50%

Yemen

Feb. 2011 61% 50%

Iraq

Feb-Mar 2011 47% 28%

Algeria

Apr-May 2011 27% 25%

KSA

May-Jun 2011 39% 55%

Egypt

Jun-Jul 2011 37% 21%

Tunisia

Sep-Oct 2011 25% 22%

Support for Islamic Influence by Country

Dark Green = Favorable toward Islamic influence by 9 or more points above average

Tan = Unfavorable toward Islamic influence by 9 or more points below average

Men of religion should have

influence over the decisions of government

Religious practice is a private matter and should be

separated from socio-political life

Survey Item (% Strongly Agree/Agree)

S. Agree/Agree (favors Islamic

influence)

Disagree/ S. Disagree (not favor

Islamic influence)

S. Agree/Agree

(not favor Islamic

influence)

Disagree/ S. Disagree (favors Islamic

influence)

Democracy may have problems but it is better than any other form of government (82%) 80% 83% 85% 77%Islam requires that in a Muslim country the political rights of non-Muslims be inferior to those of Muslims (28%)

39% 20% 25% 34%

A university education is more important for a boy than a girl (27%) 33% 22% 26% 28%On the whole, men make better political leaders than women (76%) 81% 72% 72% 82%The culture of the US and other Western countries has many positive attributes (60%) 57% 63% 63% 56%Despite negative US foreign policies, most ordinary Americans are good people (56%) 54% 58% 60% 52%

Different Visions and Worldviews?

Dark Green = difference of 9 or more

Accounting for Variance: Drivers and Pathways

Dependent Variable: Support for Islam in Politics and Society (2-8 scale, 8 = more) support)

Selected Hypotheses: More Support Predicted If:• Unfavorable Regime Evaluation• Conservative Cultural Values• Low Educational Level

Methodological Considerations • Only Muslim respondents • Pooled data and weighting• OLS, holds other IVs constant• Control variables (religiosity, demographics)• Disaggregation by age (and sex)• Compare regimes based on Islamic connection

Regime without Islamic Connection All

Respondents Younger

RespondentsOlder

RespondentsUnfavorable Assessment of Ruling Regime

.106**(.032)

-.006(.046)

.212**(.044)

Lower Support for Gender Equality

.308**(.032)

.309**(.046)

.309**(.045)

Lower Level of Education

-.099**(.032)

-.132**(.048)

-.107**(.042)

Regime with Islamic Connectiona

All Respondents

Younger Respondents

Older Respondents

Unfavorable Assessment of Ruling Regime

-.245**(.047)

-.136(.072)

-.326**(.062)

Lower Support for Gender Equality

.168**(.046)

.270**(.071)

.088(.064)

Lower Level of Education

.108*(.050)

.048(.081)

.172**(.060)

Regression coefficients; SE in parentheses; *p<.05, **p<.01aKSA, Iraq, Sudan

Some Determinants (Predictors) of Attitudes toward Islam’s Political and Societal Role: A Foundation for Discussion

H1. Unfavorable Regime Evaluation• Unfavorable regime evaluation predicts to support for Islamic influence if country governed by a regime without an Islamic connection, but only among older individuals (and only among men)

• Unfavorable regime evaluation predicts to opposition to Islamic influence if country governed by a regime with an Islamic connection, but again only among older individuals (of both sexes)

H2. Lower Support for Gender Equality• Lower support for gender equality predicts to support for Islamic influence regardless of whether or not country is governed by a regime with an Islamic connection, but only among younger individuals (and men) in countries governed by a regime with an Islamic connection

H3. Lower Level of Education• Higher education predicts to support for Islamic influence if country governed by a regime without an Islamic connection among both younger and older individuals (of both sexes)

• Lower education predicts to support for Islamic influence if country governed by a regime with an Islamic connection, but only among older individuals (and only among men)

Countries governed by regime with an Islamic connection: KSA, Iraq, Sudan

Some Conclusions and Take-Aways

Publics Divided on Islam’s Political and Societal Role• Overall, skewed toward limiting Islam’s political and societal influence• Considerable variation across countries• Opinion divided even in countries with more support for Islam’s influence

Worldviews Vary by Issue• Substantial majorities support democracy, equality for non-

Muslims, importance of education for girls• Publics divided in views about American culture and people• Some association between worldviews and views about Islam’s

influence

No “One-Size-Fits-All” Causal Story • Political judgments, cultural predispositions, and personal experiences

all account for some of the variance in views about Islam’s influence• Explanatory power influenced by character of governing regime• Explanatory power also varies across demographic categories

Next Steps: Expanded and More Complex Analysis• Expanded database: more countries and time periods• Additional measures of dependent variable• Additional individual-level hypotheses and independent

variables: tolerance, economic situation, civic engagement• Separate (not pooled) analysis for each survey• Two-level analysis to identify conditioning effects of

country and temporal characteristics • Further reflection and investigation of pathways