Drivers of Change Geography, Economics & Social Justice

Warm up Foresight 101

Bringing it Home Futurist, Skeptic or Enabler

Education…Geography… Economy…Social Justice

2000-2014 vs 2015-2030

Things that will not go away… Human Creativity; Face-to-Face; Reading for Pleasure; Books; Classrooms

Finding my inner Futurist?

Images Removed

Every day I make an effort to go toward what I don't understand. Yo-Yo Ma

HISTORY & EVOLUTION OF FORESIGHT

A Domain with Many Names: Futures Studies, Futurism and Strategic Foresight

1950s Scenario-Thinking

1970s Systems Thinking

1930s Social-Technological Change

1980s Strategy as Competitive Advantage

William Ogburn Herman Kahn Club of Rome (Growth) McKinsey/BCG

Expected future

Past Present

Plan A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario E

Future as Multiple Outcomes, Time Horizons

S.T.E.E.P. Categories Society Technology Environment Economics Politics

Cone of Plausibility Sources of Change

Trends (Continuities)

Plausible Future

Foresight 101: Three Mechanisms of Change

Forecasts

Choices (Discontinuities)

Events (Discontinuities)

Possible Futures

Preferred Futures

Scenarios

Visions

Continued Growth Decline / Collapse

Disciplined / Constrained Transformed

?

* Jim Dator, University of Hawaii

Four Futures Thinking

Managing Student (and Parent) Expectations for Career Arcs

Here & Now

1-3 Years

On-the-Horizon 3-7 years

Over–the-Horizon

Beyond 7 Years

Planning Horizon Focus on Execution

Strategic Horizons Focus on Learning & Exploring Implications

* HT, Richard Lum, VFS

Foresight as Fabric of Institutional – Community Culture

Thinking about the Future By Andy Hines and Peter Bishop

The Five Futures Glasses By Pero Micic The Lords of Strategy

By Walter Kiechel

“The great thing in this world is not so much where we are, but in what direction we are moving.”

─Oliver Wendell Holmes

• Visioning • Planning / Roadmaps • Goals –

Objectives - Actions • Assessment &

Evaluation • Iterative Planning

• Forecasts • Scenarios

• Horizon Scanning • Issues Analysis • STEEP Categories

Society Technology Economics Environment Politics

Identifying & Monitoring Change

Exploring Implications

Communicating Change

Fundamentals of Foresight

Trend Diffusion Frameworks

References Over Time

Degree of Public Awareness

Framing of Issues & Trends

Emerging Issues & Trends

Mainstreaming of Issues & Trends

Resolution / Plateau of Issues & Trends

• 16

2004

2007

2010

2016 US Supreme Court Rules on Business Rights to use Personal Data

Influence

Change

Take Orders

‘Emerging Issue’: Institutional Use of Personal Data

Forecast based Thinking: • Confidence in assumptions • Stable marketplace/culture • Focus on ‘Extrapolation’

(What should happen)

Scenario Thinking: • Unsure of right assumptions • Markets shaped by uncertainty • Focus on ‘Discontinuities’

(What could happen)

Trend Cards: Scenario Platforms

Learning to Rehearse the Future: ‘Instant’ Scenarios & Trend Cards

Event Your Scenario:

Life in 2022 +

Story of Future: Events

November 2015

Local Legislation California, Michigan & Mississippi pass local legislation effecting food, energy and cultural orgs.

Sept 2019

Apple buys Disney announces age of retail experience entertainment

May 21, 2017

China Civil War California opens doors to 1m refugees

Summer 2018

India Heirs donate $2.5Bfor Tata Museums across California

January 2016

Zuckerberg subsidizes Universal Pass to arts and cultural institutions

January 2017

California passes 12

year old Mobility License remotely supervised transportation for youth [aka ‘Soccer Mom Bill’]

October 4, 2019

End of 501c Tax Code

Learning to Rehearse the Future: ‘Instant’ Scenarios & Trend Cards

2022: A Day in the Life

Morning School / Office

Activity/ Shopping

Home / Family Time

Character A

Character B

Review Questions

ideas

Scenario Drivers of Change: • What other trends and possible events might support the future described in this

scenario? • Are there trends or events that might refute this scenario or make it make it less

plausible?

Implications: • What are the implications for _____ (e.g. programs, partnerships, leadership, et al)?

Strategies: • What might people communities, and institutions (local/global) do differently to thrive

in this future? • Describe longitudinal tools and activities that might be relevant to this scenario.

Scenario Thinking: • Where might the story go from here?

• Where does this future lead beyond what you've heard?

FRAMEWORK: SCENARIO FORCE FIELD ANALYSIS

Scenario Name

+10 +5 + 1 Today +1 +5 +10

Restraining Forces Driving Forces

‘Pulling’ You Away from Scenario ‘Pushing’ You Towards the Scenario

Tips on Applying Futures Wheels

ideas

When to Apply Trend Cards / Scenario Thinking

• When there is uncertainty related to how multiple

trends and events could play out

• When you want a quick way to force your team into a different vision

• Learn to point to historical examples of far-reaching outcomes in the world of business (e.g. US Govt bailout of GM; Google buying Motorola)

FORESIGHT TOOLS

Qualitative Focus: Scanning Scenarios Simulations & Games Backcasting Genius Forecasting Morphological Analysis Role-playing Ambient Futures Casual Layered Analysis Futures Wheel Relevance Tree Appreciative Inquiry

Quantitative

Trend Extrapolation Benchmarking Patent Analysis Systems Dynamics Probability Forecasting Monte Carlo Models

Qual-Quant Hybrid

Delphi Survey Cross Impact Analysis Survey / Focus Group Agent Modeling CA Systems Modeling Decision Modeling Gartner Hype Cycle Text Mining S-Curve Analysis Field Anomaly Relaxation Roadmapping Fisher-Pry Analysis

Trends are slow changes over time; they reveal direction & momentum. Which trends are most likely to converge? Which trends are most likely to have the greatest impact? Which trends have the most uncertainty in terms of

implications/outcomes/solutions?

Events are moments that can amplify or lead to discontinuities of existing trends. With your colleagues, list and describe potential implications of: Scheduled Events (e.g. Elections; Civic/Cultural Events; Campus events) Plausible Events (e.g. End of 501c3; Student Financial Aid Legislation] Wildcard Events – High impact, low probability (e.g. Bio; Cyber attack)

Choices reflect investments and actions towards a preferred future. With your colleagues, list and describe potential implications of: Institutional Choices (e.g. Capital Campaigns; Academic Programs; Staff

Training) Plausible Events (e.g. Wildcard Events – High impact, low probability (e.g. Bio; Cyber attack)

Additional Resource: Strategic Questions to Consider The following strategic questions are helpful in engaging colleagues conversations about the future.

Drivers of Change Geography, Economics & Social Justice

Warm up Foresight 101

Bringing it Home Futurist, Skeptic or Enabler

Geography

Since 1990 - East, West

Beyond 2020 - South, South

1950 - 1990 - West, West

The Big Stories: Aging & Rise of Youth Culture

Demographics 101

Youth Culture & Population Pyramids

Japan

Global Spectrum of Young Audiences

U.S. vs Nigeria

Source: Gapminder.org

Demographics + Lifestyle Transformation

The new Global

Middle Class

Source: Gapminder.org

Demographics + Lifestyle Transformation

Global Spectrum of Young Audiences

New Generation of Parents

www.global-migration.info/

http://www.sacmeq.org/interactive-maps/statplanet/StatPlanet.html

Geopolitics, Economics & Arts Movements

Trends, Issues & Uncertainties • Tribal Dynamics vs Nation-state • Global Cultural Exchanges • Institution Building Abroad • Travel & Tourism • Continued Fragmentation &

Integration in Formats • Entertainment & Cultural

Consumption Patterns • Digital Adoption & Applications • Philanthropy & Business Models

Social Justice

True False

. Providence, RI has launched a campaign to close their community Word Gap. The effort includes providing families with devices that listen to the number of words children hear each day.

Closing the Word Gap & Crossing the Creepy Line:

Aligning Policy, Family Culture and Technology

What’s Ahead: Creepy or Compelling?

Outputs Mission: Access & Summative Testing

Outcomes Mission: Behavior Change

& Mastery of Skills

The Buzz on the Future of Community Engagement

Civicware

Active Aging

Innovation Districts

Local 2.0 Place-making

Sharing Economy

Participatory Planning

Social Entrepreneurship

Alternative Crypto Currencies

Third Places

Design Thinking

Crowdfunding

Civicware: Engagement & Data-driven Insights (Tools & Databases)

Elevating Understanding of Key Indicators

Liberal Arts Foundation Graduates Who Thrive at Intersections of Change

Future of Community Service & Engagement

Data Science Analytics User Experience Design Adaptive Design Behavior Change Neuroscience Policy Civicware Leadership Art Natural Resources Sensing Technologies Software Robotics

Aging Demographics Millennial Family Formation Youth Culture Urban Studies South-to-South Economy Cities Health-Wellness Food Textiles – Clothing Manufacturing Insurance Transportation–Mobility Education – Training Small Farming

12 major areas of social change, including: Education, Youth Development, Health, Culture & Identity and Critical Human Needs

The Impact Genome Project™ (IGP) is a systematic way to codify and quantify the factors that drive social outcomes.

We recently conducted two months of fieldwork in order to update the algorithm that we use to estimate the impact of one of our products, Brilliance, and we hope you might be as interested to hear the underlying reasons as we were. The end result was a 28% reduction in the three numbers that we track to measure the impact of Brilliance, but a significant increase in the confidence we have in our estimations and a much more nuanced understanding of how Brilliance is being used in hospitals.

Social Impact & Data Science

Behavior Change & Health Outcomes

“EveryDose, EveryDay” initiative Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Financial Services & Social Dynamics

Million Dollar Blocks

spatialinformationdesignlab.org/

http://drones.pitchinteractive.com/

Out of Sight, Out of Mind Project

https://civic.mit.edu/blog/erhardt/social-justice-through-data

Learn More…

False

In early 2015, Palo Alto High School will launch a pilot program providing students with neuro headware for use during studying and class sessions

True

Future of Learning

Mindfulness The Overwhelmed Student

Adaptive Learning Learning Graph

Assumption: ‘The Overwhelmed Student’ becomes a public health issue

By 2020, students will seek non-traditional solutions to overcome mental wellness challenges

State of active, open attention on the present. Observing your thoughts and feelings from a distance, without judging them good or bad. (Psychology Today)

Mindfulness:

Intentional, accepting and non-judgmental focus

The ‘Business Case’ Mindfulness

… may help: Notice when a decision should or could

be made; See ethical challenges

Increase goal awareness

Gathering information and insights; Facilitate option generation

More Open to Feedback & Collaboration

Natalia Karelaia Jochen Reb

Research Case for Mindfulness, Contemplation & Meditation

Research Case for Mindfulness, Contemplation & Meditation

The Collaborative Economy

Anticipating Pull and Push Factors of Economic Localization

Teaching Students to Use a Critical Lens on Localization Efforts

Source: http://eltjam.com/humanizing-adaptive-learning-for-elt/

The Question to Explore: How does curriculum, teacher and the classroom fit into an adaptive learning world?

Preparing Concordia for Age of Adaptive Learning

Exploratory Phase: 2015-2018 Assess Platforms,

Tools & Content Integration

Understand Student & Teacher Adoption Dynamics

Build Roadmap & Monitor Case Studies for Distance & In-class

Economy

Trend: Increase in non-traditional forms of data

Graph-Database = Connections are Most Important

Entity (Node)

Relationship Relationship

Relationship Entity (Node)

Link Graph

Social Graph

Interest Graph

Health Graph

Learning Graph

Teaching in the Age of Graph Databases

Connected Data = Drives Work & Learning Experiences

???

A

Neo4j = Graph Database

Garry’s Social Graph

Garry’s Connections via Lisa Bodell

Garry’s Learning Graph: What I know, How I know it, What is yet to explore?!

Where is Learning Data Stream?

Personal Data Revolution, Meet Lifelong Learning

Experience Streams <Actor, Verb, Object>

“I did this”

Learning Record Store (LRS) Individual Control over

Access to Learning Data

Early Days of Capturing Learning Experiences Where does the teacher-college relationship fit into this puzzle?

Content & Relationship with: Schools, Libraries, Employers & Media

Learning Activity Streams <Actor, Verb, Object> “I did this”

Activity Statements: Thomas Discovers Poetry Thomas liked a Lucile Clifton poem he heard on iTunes Concordia teacher invited Thomas to a campus poetry event Thomas enrolled in a creative writing class at the local library Thomas read Alice Walker for his creative writing course Concordia teacher recommended an obscure Rita Dove poem Thomas performed his poetry at a local café event Library invited Thomas to a program on self-publishing Thomas self-published his first collection of poems Concordia library added his book to their collection

Basic Level

In Progress

Expert Level

History of Jazz

Advocate: Danny Hillis

College Experiences based on a Learning Map (Connected Experiences from Learning Graph)

Creative Aging: Intersection Arts, Social Services & Learning

• Alzheimer’s Poetry Project • Songwriting Works (Health & Wellness)

The MetLife Foundation

How can we gain more insights about implications of aging? Simulation & Spectrum of Aging Experiences

Network Delivers Independent Living Solutions to Reduce Liabilities & Costs

Linking Patients + Families/Friends + Doctors Smart Homes, Connected Devices & Activity Sensor Networks

Emerging Policy & Marketplace Strategy= Aging-in-Place

Trends & Issues Mapped Against Readiness & Urgency R

ead

ine

ss

Urgency

Not Urgent Urgent – Critical

Not Ready

Ready

Somewhat Ready

Important

Trends & Issues Mapped Against Readiness & Urgency R

ead

ine

ss

Urgency

Not Urgent Urgent – Critical

Not Ready

Ready

Somewhat Ready

Important

Intelligent Assistants

Graph-based Analytic Tools

Online Delivery

Mindfulness

Badges

Challenge: Host a Concordia University ‘Failfaire’ in May 2015

Create a Campus Culture of Smart Risk-taking

Lower Barriers to Pilots & Partnerships

Invite your students to deliver stories at ‘Failfaire’

I want to Encourage Others “Interesting stuff. No time, but I want to empower my team.”

Garry Golden garrygolden@gmail.com Two R’s

PDF & Resources garrygolden.com/concordia2014

Incremental Innovation Within an Era

versus

Transformational

Innovation Across New Eras

Era-based Leadership Framework: Rerforming vs Transforming

S-Curve Shape of ‘Major’ & ‘Minor’ Eras

?

Slow Change ‘Emerging’

Rapid Change

‘Accelerating’

Plateau of Change

‘Mainstreaming’

Disruptions lead to Next Era!!!

Eras of Mobility

Human / Animals

Cars

Boats

Planes /Rockets

What is next?

•Autonomous

•Sub-orbital

Rail

2004

Monitoring Slow Change Phase of Development

2007 2010 2015 2020

2030

2050

Software Supported Human Driving

Eras of Manufacturing

Clay Stone Wood

Plastics

Copper Bronze Iron-Steel

Silicon

What is next?

•Carbon

•Biomaterials

Social Media

Broadcast Media

One-to-One

Eras of Communication

Machine-to-Machine

‘M2M’

Era of Institution

Disruptions of Books & Industrial Work

Disruptions of Web & Knowledge Economy

Era of Apprenticeship

Era of Learner

Eras of Education/Learning

ERAS OF INNOVATION: LEARNING

Learner Era •Lifelong Learning •Beyond Institutions •Software-mediated

Institutional / Teacher Era •Public Schools (Life stage) •Professional Teachers •Core curriculum

Local Market/ Apprenticeship Era •Local Tradition •Elders as Teachers •Class-based Occupation

Disruptions of Books & Industrial Work

Disruptions of Web & Knowledge Economy

Learn More:http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/hype-cycles/

Team Activity Goals • To explore far-reaching implications of trends,

events and choices

• To surface assumptions about the nature of social change and need for innovation.

• To identify hunting ground opportunities for future innovation

[30 minutes]

Signal Team Activity: Futures (Implications) Wheel

Scan Hit / Event

First Order Implication

Second Order Implication

Third Order Implication

Blue Arrows: Opportunities

Financial (e.g. Investment, Revenue)

Market (e.g. Expanded Segmentations)

New Internal (e.g. Skills & Capacities )

New Behavior (e.g. More transactions)

Red Arrows: Constraints

Resources (e.g. Lack of; Higher Costs)

Offerings (e.g. Cannibalize offerings)

Market Size (e.g. Narrow Segmentation)

Policy Change (e.g. New Regulation)

Wild cards (e.g. Product recall)

Worksheet: Futures Implications Wheel

? Event Scan Hit Inspired

Headlines Multiple Future Outcomes

Signals Team Activity: Process side of the Futures Wheel

‘Power Plants’ $1 $10 $100 $1000

‘Unplugging’ / Personal Fuel Packets

Trend: Demand for Portable Power

Could Apple disrupt the energy industry? … or the Housing Construction industry?

Scan Hit Example

Unplug Refuel

2016 2017

5 Year Plan

Fuel-based Devices

Fuel-cell on a Chip

2021

The Cordless Christmas

2026

House Construction without Electrical Sockets

#1 Fuel Distributor

? Event Scan Hit Inspired

Headlines Multiple Future Outcomes

Signals Team Activity: Process side of the Futures Wheel

Red Cards –

Negative Outcomes

Green Cards –

Positive Outcomes

Signals Team Activity: Setting up Headlines for the Futures Wheel

Signals Team Activity: Prompt Cards Help with Creating Headlines

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