Introduction to Foresight -...

Budapest 27-29 September 2007 – Retreat on Technology Foresight for high level Decision makers 1

Introduction to Foresight

Retreat on Technology Foresight for High-level Decision MakersBudapest, 27-29 September 2007

Philine Warnke, Cristiano CagninEuropean Commission JRC IPTS


Outline

Foresight

• what it is• what the benefits are• what it can do for policy• when it is applied• what it does look at• how to get it going

Digging Deeper…Quick tour


Foresight

• what it is


Where are we now?

How do we get there? Where do we want to go?

How things may develop?

How can we prepare?

policy makerscompany managers

citizens researchers

NGOs unionsassociations consumers

panelssurveysscenarios roadmaps

StakeholdersStakeholders

debating the Futuredebating the Future

in a structured wayin a structured way


Examples:

Romanian Researchers, managers, policy makers debating:Knowledge Society 2020 – what does it imply for Romania? What should be Romanian Research priorities? What kind of RDI system do we want to have in 2020? How to overcome skill shortages?

European manufacturing actors debating:Will there be production in Europe in 2020? What if people start fabbingtheir own products? What if nanotechnology allows for manufacturing atom by atom? Will factories be run without people? How will we organise manufacturing if everybody needs to take care of children or elderly half of their time? What if zero waste becomes mandatory? What kind of research do we need now to be prepared?


Foresight

• benefits


Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future


InsightsAbout the future


RelationsWith respect to future


AttitudesTowards the future


produces changes

•Networks•Linkages•Common ground•Shared perspectives•Joint visions

•Networks•Linkages•Common ground•Shared perspectives•Joint visions

•Long term thinking•Awareness of challenges•Foresight & learning culture

•Long term thinking•Awareness of challenges•Foresight & learning culture

•Dynamics of change•New perspectives•Future risks & opportunities• Strategic options• System capabilities• Stakeholders views

•Dynamics of change•New perspectives•Future risks & opportunities• Strategic options• System capabilities• Stakeholders views

Being better prepared for the futureBeing better prepared for the future


Foresight

• what it can do for policy










produces changes

Strategic intelligence as a base for better decisions and

strategies


strategies

Changes in society for better policy implementationChanges in society for better policy implementation

Changes in policy process for better decision makingChanges in policy process for better decision making

Foresight Policy Benefits


Actors

Policy

Actors

InsightsInsights

Actors

Better decisions

Foresight DialogueForesight Dialogue

Better decision making

Better implementation due to betterresponsiveness of actors

Foresight policy benefits


Foresight feeding into policy making stages


Evaluation

Agenda-setting

FORESIGHT

Policy definition

Learning

Implementation

Understanding of changes

Responsiveness of the system

New ideas

Legitimacy, transparency

VisionsPolicy options

New policy configurations


Foresight

• when it is applied


Typical situations of Foresight for policy support

• challenges faced by territories (regions, countries, cities etc.): decline of key industrial sector, relocation, accession to EU, coastal flooding

• decisions that need to be backed up by stakeholders to be successful: priority setting for research, innovation, regional development

• decisions with deep or long-term impact: infrastructure, transport, healthcare reorganisation

• need to prepare for emerging phenomena with disruptive potential & high uncertainty: climate change, knowledge society, globalisation, demographic change, immigration, nanotechnology, hydrogen society

• need for enhancement of innovation capability


Foresight

• what does it look at?


Basic types of dialogue in a Foresight exercise

Diagnosis Prognosis Prescription

Understanding where we are…

Exploringwhat could happen…

Debating what we would like to happen …

Deciding what should be done …

Structured stakeholder dialogue


Society

Economy

Technology

Today

Plausible Future 2

Plausible Future 1

Relevant challenges forarea under consideration

Foresight looks at the interplay of technology, society and economyenquiring how it may lead to differentfutures thatpose differentchallenges and demand differentstrategies to pursuedifferent visions


Example: Nordic Hydrogen Energy Foresight

Society

Economy

Technology

H2

Political Landscape

Concentration of BusinessPrevailing Mode of innovation

Energy sector developments

Mobility patterns

Lifestyle (housing)

Hydrogen technology


Digging Deeper: Outline

Foresight basic concept

• Stakeholder dialogue? • why structured dialogue?• how to structure futures dialogue?• Why looking at different futures?

Foresight policy benefitsForesight for Innovation

Quick tour Hold on a minute …Looking a bit deeper …


Where are we now?

How do we get there? Where do we want to go?

How things may develop?

How can we prepare?

policy makerscompany managers

citizens researchers

NGOs unionsassociations consumers

panelssurveys

scenarios roadmaps

Foresight

StakeholdersStakeholders

debating the Futuredebating the Future

in a structured wayin a structured way


Digging Deeper

• stakeholder dialogue


Why involve stakeholders?

• Crucial part of Foresight benefits arise through change of attitudes and relations within the debate

• Collective intelligence needed to envisage possible futures

• Diversity of viewpoints needed for debate on desirable futures


Digging Deeper

• why structured dialogue?


Foresight applies formal methods structuring the dialogue on the future in order to:

• create adequate type of insights• bring things together: create collective intelligence out of diversity of

viewpoints & first rate expertise• enforce long-term perspective• break out of the box: avoid extrapolation of present, envisage also

disruptive change• identify relevant changes that it is worth preparing for: capture the

dynamics of a system through rigidity of analysis• foster creativity


Digging Deeper

• how to structure a futures dialogue


Basic types of dialogue in a Foresight exercise

Each type of dialogue calls for– specific methods structuring the debate– specific participants in the dialogue

Need to tailor approach to objectives in each phase

DiagnosisUnderstanding where

we are…

PrognosisForesighting

what could happen…

PrescriptionDebating what we would like

to happen

Deciding what should be done …


Tailoring participation

• Participation takes many forms and shapes such as:• Wide participation of civil society • Involvement of relevant innovation actors• Involvement of high-level representatives from a small number of key

stakeholder groups• Involvement of a key experts with different backgrounds

Need to find adequate expertise and relevant stakeholders in order to fulfil objectives in each phase …

• Also to be considered …• Cultural context• Resources (participation costs time and money !)


Structuring Future Dialogue

Examples


Structuring Dialogue on Diagnosis:Assessing key factors influencing manufacturing future

Uncertainty Importance

Stakeholder participation

Mobility

Public attitudes

Cultural diversity

Public concerns (privacy)

Individualisation

New consumer needs

Risk adversity

New skill requirements

Life-long learning

Ageing workforce

Consumer “schizophrenia”


concerted

SustainableTimes

LocalStandard

GlobalEconomy

Focus Europe

collectiveindividual

loose

public values and consumer behaviour

inte

grat

ion

of S

D-

rele

vant

pol

icie

s

concerted

SustainableTimes

LocalStandard

GlobalEconomy

Focus Europe

collectiveindividual

loose

public values and consumer behaviour

inte

grat

ion

of S

D-

rele

vant

pol

icie

s

Structuring Dialogue on Exploration: Scenario Debate

CitizenLeadership

Chemical industry outlook: RTDdriven by global competition andinternal pressures rather thanregulation. RTD priorities reflectshort- and medium goals sinceconcerted policy support for long-term initiatives is lacking.

Structuring Dialogue on Prescription: Assessment of visions *

*User involvement in furniture industry

Structuring Dialogue on Prescription:Identifying enablers*


Digging Deeper

• Why looking at different futures?


(The cost of not) considering alternative futuresfrom Prof. Ron Johnston, Australian Centre for Innovation, Sydney, Australia

•This "telephone" has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us. (Western Union internal memo, 1876)

•The horse is here to stay, the automobile is a novelty. (Michigan Bank manager to Henry Ford, 1908)

•Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? (Jack Warner, 1930)

•There would be a global demand for perhaps five computers. (Thomas Watson, IBM, 1943)

•Guitar music is on the way out. (Decca Records rejecting Beatles, 1962)

•If anything will remain unchanged, it is the role of women (David Riesman, 1967)


Foresight

• what (else) it can do for policy










produces changes


robust strategies


robust strategies

Changes in society for better policy implementationChanges in society for better policy implementation

Changes in policy process for better policy makingChanges in policy process for better policy making

Foresight policy benefits

New configurationsNew configurationsEmbedding participationEmbedding participation


Foresight Policy Benefit: Embedding participation• Increase the transparency of policy-making process• Improve the legitimacy of policy-making process• Building policy on societal debates

“A new infrastructure for participatory democracy”


Foresight Policy Benefit: Reconfiguration of the policy system

New configurations of policy-making bodies around new conceptualisations of topics– e.g. establishment of linkages between ministries

Better ability to address future challenges


Digging Deeper

• Foresight for Innovation


Foresight for Innovation

Rationale: Enhance innovation system quality through Foresight benefitsIn particular:

• New combinations of elements (realms of knowledge etc.)• New (unusual) network links• Trust between IS actors• Knowledge flows within IS• Mediation between users and providers of innovation• Capability to learn and change (=innovate)• Distributed (anticipatory) intelligence

Foresight functions as a systemic innovation policy instrument complementing classical supply or demand oriented steering instruments such as direct R&D support or public procurement. It can be a valuable element of cluster policy or regional innovation system approach


Thank You!


Foresight

• how to get it going


To get it going as a policy maker you need to:

• carefully think what you want to get out of it and whether Foresight is really what you need• find a competent managing team which in turn will get in touch with core stakeholders to kick start the scoping of the Foresight• engage into a dialogue with the team to scope the exercise• provide adequate resources• participate in the exercise as required• support the team in embedding the exercise into decision making process (link with other ministries, planning processes etc.)•back up the team to create legitimacy

•... make use of the outcomes and Enjoy the experience ☺


Doing Foresight - special challenges

•Designing participation•Choosing methods

Budapest 27-29 September 2007 – Retreat on Technology Foresight for high level Decision makers 45Tailoring Phases to Functions

Type of Dialogue

Type and levelparticipation

A few decision-makers

Wide societal debate

with citizens

Stakeholder

debate

Debating choices Measures, actionsDiagnosis Exploring possible futures

Expertise

Budapest 27-29 September 2007 – Retreat on Technology Foresight for high level Decision makers 46Designing participation

Three major challenges

• Define adequate level of Participation• Identify relevant stakeholder groups• Identify relevant expertise


Challenge: “relevant” stakeholdersIdeally all actor groups concerned with the issues under debate (i.e.

stakeholders) should be involved but a special effort is needed to identify these groups

Consider not only present but also future stakeholders (e.g. newsector configurations)“Ordinary citizens” may be stakeholders i.e. affected by changePolicy makers are stakeholders but their involvement needs to becarefully considered and designedObjectives (intangible outcomes) may demand certain stakeholders to be included (e.g. citizens, users, policy makers …)


Challenge: “relevant” expertise

To achieve a holistic perspective in the dialogue expertise is needed in all aspects identified as relevant for change

To be considered:in some cases deep understanding needed in others broad overviewover a field“Ordinary citizens” may be experts (e.g. about use of technology)social scientists needed to understand societyNot every stakeholder is an expert

Budapest 27-29 September 2007 – Retreat on Technology Foresight for high level Decision makers 49General criteria for selection of participants

• Diversity/Balance: professional/institutional background, sector, value chain position, thinker vs. actor, age, gender …

• Commitment: willing to invest time and energy• Open mindedness: able and willing to

– step back from their organisation's viewpoint– consider other standpoints and perspectives– look beyond their own field of expertise– think “out of the box”

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