RUSSIAN S&T FORESIGHT 2030: LOOKING FOR NEW DRIVERS OF … · 2016-06-03 · Foresight...
Transcript of RUSSIAN S&T FORESIGHT 2030: LOOKING FOR NEW DRIVERS OF … · 2016-06-03 · Foresight...
RUSSIAN S&T FORESIGHT 2030: LOOKING FOR NEW DRIVERS OF GROWTH
Alexander Sokolov, Alexander Chulok
National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Moscow (HSE)
HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge (ISSEK)
HSE Foresight Centre
S&T Foresight faces new agenda
S&T Foresight System
•Evidence -based analysis •Integration of quantitative and qualitative methods •Prioritizing •Communication and networking •Stakeholder engagement •Integration to policy
Global Challenges Grand Responses
Demand for new skills
Policy mix
New economic paradigm
New instruments for STI policy
Changing society
Multidisciplinary and multicultural
research
Changing National Innovation Systems
Enhancing Infrastructure, networks
Changing global value chains and
traditional leaders
Globalization vs localization
Increasing influence of technologies
Boost of Foresight activities in Russia
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2006 2007
Critical technologies
(national)
S&T Foresight 2025 S&T Foresight 2030
STI priorities for natural resources
Foresight for nanoindustry markets
Foresight for ICT and mass-media
2030
STI priorities for Bashkortostan
STI priorities for Moscow
STI priorities for Samara
Tomsk innovation
infrastructure
STI priorities for Tula
Regional clusters
Roadmap for power engineering equipment
Sectoral roadmaps for new materials (space, aircraft, nuclear energy)
Roadmap for medicine & pharmaceutical industry
Roadmap for water purification
Roadmap for composite materials
Roadmaps for energy efficiency
Roadmaps for oil & gas sector: upstream & downstream
Roadmaps for technology platforms
Programmes of innovative development of state-owned companies: priorities, roadmaps, technology audit, et al.
Foresight for shipbuilding
Critical technologies (national)
Software – Interaction with expert network
Online database on global technology trends
Software – Interactive technology roadmaps
Demand for future skills
Foresight for civil society
Federal level
Regional level
Sectoral and
corporate level
Foresight
infrastructure
1996 – 1997: Initiation of
Foresight projects in Russia
(HSE team)
Roadmap for space
navigation
S&T Foresight for aircraft sector
Concept of a roadmap for automotive
industry: FCV Roadmap for LED manufacturing
Regional Foresight
(education)
2015
National technology Foresight system
Critical technologies (national)
S&T Foresight 2040
Roadmaps for aviation
Sectoral Foresight systems
Critical technologies (sectoral)
Network of sectoral S&T
Foresight centres
Foresight for National
universities (5/100)
S&T Foresight results are used by key NIS stakeholders
More than 150 global trends in
the economy, science, politics
and society
Assessments of effects and
periods of maximal
manifestation of challenges and windows
of opportunities
More than 1000 specific
priority R&D tasks
Characteristics of more than 80 prospective markets and 250 product groups
Priority S&T areas Key sectors of the economy Publications
Technology Foresight system covers federal, sectoral and regional levels
Russian S&T Foresight
Forecast of socioeconomic development
Budget forecast
Socioeconomic development
strategy for Russia
Strategic goals and priorities of socioeconomic
and S&T development (President’s addresses)
Strategies for macroregions
State S&T development programme
Strategic Foresight
Priority S&T areas and critical technologies for Russia
Nati
on
al
level
Spatial development strategies
Programmes for regional clusters R
eg
ion
al le
vel
Sectoral strategies
Sectoral S&T priorities and critical technologies
Sectoral S&T Foresight studies
Secto
ral le
vel
State regional programmes Companies’ programmes and target documents
Strategic R&D programmes
for technology platforms
Technology roadmaps Sectoral
state programmes
Thank you for your attention!
[email protected] [email protected]
issek.hse.ru foresight-journal.hse.ru
prognoz2030.hse.ru