RUSSIAN S&T FORESIGHT 2030: LOOKING FOR NEW DRIVERS OF … · 2016-06-03 · Foresight...

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RUSSIAN S&T FORESIGHT 2030: LOOKING FOR NEW DRIVERS OF GROWTH Alexander Sokolov, Alexander Chulok National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Moscow (HSE) HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge (ISSEK) HSE Foresight Centre

Transcript of RUSSIAN S&T FORESIGHT 2030: LOOKING FOR NEW DRIVERS OF … · 2016-06-03 · Foresight...

Page 1: RUSSIAN S&T FORESIGHT 2030: LOOKING FOR NEW DRIVERS OF … · 2016-06-03 · Foresight infrastructure 1996 – 1997: Initiation of Foresight projects in Russia (HSE team) Roadmap

RUSSIAN S&T FORESIGHT 2030: LOOKING FOR NEW DRIVERS OF GROWTH

Alexander Sokolov, Alexander Chulok

National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Moscow (HSE)

HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge (ISSEK)

HSE Foresight Centre

Page 2: RUSSIAN S&T FORESIGHT 2030: LOOKING FOR NEW DRIVERS OF … · 2016-06-03 · Foresight infrastructure 1996 – 1997: Initiation of Foresight projects in Russia (HSE team) Roadmap

S&T Foresight faces new agenda

S&T Foresight System

•Evidence -based analysis •Integration of quantitative and qualitative methods •Prioritizing •Communication and networking •Stakeholder engagement •Integration to policy

Global Challenges Grand Responses

Demand for new skills

Policy mix

New economic paradigm

New instruments for STI policy

Changing society

Multidisciplinary and multicultural

research

Changing National Innovation Systems

Enhancing Infrastructure, networks

Changing global value chains and

traditional leaders

Globalization vs localization

Increasing influence of technologies

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Boost of Foresight activities in Russia

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2006 2007

Critical technologies

(national)

S&T Foresight 2025 S&T Foresight 2030

STI priorities for natural resources

Foresight for nanoindustry markets

Foresight for ICT and mass-media

2030

STI priorities for Bashkortostan

STI priorities for Moscow

STI priorities for Samara

Tomsk innovation

infrastructure

STI priorities for Tula

Regional clusters

Roadmap for power engineering equipment

Sectoral roadmaps for new materials (space, aircraft, nuclear energy)

Roadmap for medicine & pharmaceutical industry

Roadmap for water purification

Roadmap for composite materials

Roadmaps for energy efficiency

Roadmaps for oil & gas sector: upstream & downstream

Roadmaps for technology platforms

Programmes of innovative development of state-owned companies: priorities, roadmaps, technology audit, et al.

Foresight for shipbuilding

Critical technologies (national)

Software – Interaction with expert network

Online database on global technology trends

Software – Interactive technology roadmaps

Demand for future skills

Foresight for civil society

Federal level

Regional level

Sectoral and

corporate level

Foresight

infrastructure

1996 – 1997: Initiation of

Foresight projects in Russia

(HSE team)

Roadmap for space

navigation

S&T Foresight for aircraft sector

Concept of a roadmap for automotive

industry: FCV Roadmap for LED manufacturing

Regional Foresight

(education)

2015

National technology Foresight system

Critical technologies (national)

S&T Foresight 2040

Roadmaps for aviation

Sectoral Foresight systems

Critical technologies (sectoral)

Network of sectoral S&T

Foresight centres

Foresight for National

universities (5/100)

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S&T Foresight results are used by key NIS stakeholders

More than 150 global trends in

the economy, science, politics

and society

Assessments of effects and

periods of maximal

manifestation of challenges and windows

of opportunities

More than 1000 specific

priority R&D tasks

Characteristics of more than 80 prospective markets and 250 product groups

Priority S&T areas Key sectors of the economy Publications

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Technology Foresight system covers federal, sectoral and regional levels

Russian S&T Foresight

Forecast of socioeconomic development

Budget forecast

Socioeconomic development

strategy for Russia

Strategic goals and priorities of socioeconomic

and S&T development (President’s addresses)

Strategies for macroregions

State S&T development programme

Strategic Foresight

Priority S&T areas and critical technologies for Russia

Nati

on

al

level

Spatial development strategies

Programmes for regional clusters R

eg

ion

al le

vel

Sectoral strategies

Sectoral S&T priorities and critical technologies

Sectoral S&T Foresight studies

Secto

ral le

vel

State regional programmes Companies’ programmes and target documents

Strategic R&D programmes

for technology platforms

Technology roadmaps Sectoral

state programmes

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Thank you for your attention!

[email protected] [email protected]

issek.hse.ru foresight-journal.hse.ru

prognoz2030.hse.ru