Warm-Season Lake-/Sea-Breeze Severe Weather in the Northeast
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Transcript of Warm-Season Lake-/Sea-Breeze Severe Weather in the Northeast
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Warm-SeasonLake-/Sea-Breeze Severe Weatherin the Northeast
Patrick H. Wilson, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel KeyserDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, Albany, NY
Thomas A. WasulaNOAA / National Weather Service, Albany, NY
CSTAR II Grant NA04NWS4680005
Northeast Regional Operational Workshop VIII Presentation
2 November 2006
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Research Goals
Investigate thermodynamical and dynamical processes along with physiographic effects
Increase understanding of this phenomenon
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Methodology – Part I
Warm-Season: April – October
Domain: OH, PA, MD, DE, NJ, NY, VT, NH, MA, CT, RI, ME
Selected cases from Storm Prediction Center archived storm data 2000-present
Verified from National Climatic Diagnostic Center archived radar data
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Methodology – Part II
Obtained NCEP/NARR gridded datasets for each case and plot important weather variables
Collected soundings, radar data, and surface observations
Classified cases into separate categories and conducted case study analyses
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Case Classifications
Pure Case: mesoscale forcing primary;
synoptic-scale forcing secondary
Mixed Case: mesoscale forcing and synoptic-
scale forcing working together
Null Case: convection suppressed by
lake-/sea-breeze processes
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Case List
Pure Cases
9 August 2001 (Ontario)
6 July 2003 (Erie)
7 August 2005 (Chesapeake)
2 August 2006 (Ontario)
Mixed Cases
9 April 2001 (Erie)
19 June 2002 (Atlantic)
24 July 2003 (Erie and Ontario)
1 August 2005 (Huron and Ontario)
24 April 2006 (Chesapeake)
Null Case11 July 2006 (Atlantic)
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1200 UTC 9 August 2001 (Pure Case)
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
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1200 UTC 9 August 2001
14 18 22 26 30 34 38 42 46
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1200 UTC 9 August 2001
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1200 UTC 9 August 2001http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
Note:
Parcel taken from lowest 500 m to determine CAPE
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1500 UTC 9 August 2001
-14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
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1800 UTC 9 August 2001
340 345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380
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1800 UTC 9 August 2001
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0
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1700 UTC 9 August 2001
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1700 UTC 9 August 2001 Radar Composite
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
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1800 UTC 9 August 2001 Radar Composite
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
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1900 UTC 9 August 2001 Radar Composite
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
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2000 UTC 9 August 2001 Radar Composite
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
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2100 UTC 9 August 2001 Radar Composite
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
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2200 UTC 9 August 2001 Radar Composite
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
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2300 UTC 9 August 2001 Radar Composite
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
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0000 UTC 10 August 2001 Radar Composite
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
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0100 UTC 10 August 2001 Radar Composite
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
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0200 UTC 10 August 2001 Radar Composite
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
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9 August 2001 Storm Reports
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Pure Cases:Preliminary Conclusions
Ridge axis in place at the surface or aloft
Low unidirectional wind shear in low-levels (< 10 m s-1 for 925-700 hPa layer)
T > 30°C, Td > 20°C, CAPE > 1500 J kg-1
Placement and timing signal by θe-ridge axis (θe > 335 K)
Intersections of boundaries enhance convection
Tendency to become squall lines and prefer valleys
Occur most often during hottest months of summer
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1200 UTC 19 June 2002 (Mixed Case)
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
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1200 UTC 19 June 2002
14 18 22 26 30 34 38 42 46
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1200 UTC 19 June 2002
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1200 UTC 19 June 2002http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
Note:
Parcel taken from lowest 500 m to determine CAPE
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1500 UTC 19 June 2002
-14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
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1800 UTC 19 June 2002
320 325 330 335 340 345 350 355 360
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1800 UTC 19 June 2002
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1800 UTC 19 June 2002 Radar Composite
70
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30
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10
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1900 UTC 19 June 2002 Radar Composite
70
60
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40
30
20
10
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2000 UTC 19 June 2002 Radar Composite
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
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19 June 2002 Storm Reports
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Mixed Cases:Preliminary Conclusions
Troughs generally in place at the surface or aloft
Typically more wind shear (speed shear and veering winds) in low levels
20°C < T < 30°C, 10°C < Td < 20°C, θe > 320 K
Cyclonic vorticity and cyclonic vorticity advection important
Intersection of boundaries enhance convection
Occur most often during late spring and early autumn
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1800 UTC 11 July 2006 (Null Case)
330 335 340 345 350 355 360 365 370
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1800 UTC 11 July 2006
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1800 UTC 11 July 2006 Radar Composite
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
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11 July 2006 Storm Reports
Lake and sea breezes can suppress convection.
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1800 UTC 6 July 2003 MODIS Satellitehttp://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/
Questions?