The August 9, 2001 Lake Breeze Severe Weather Event Across New York and Western New England Thomas...

The August 9, 2001 Lake Breeze The August 9, 2001 Lake Breeze Severe Weather Event Across New Severe Weather Event Across New

York and Western New EnglandYork and Western New England

Thomas A. WasulaThomas A. Wasula

NOAA/NWS WFO at AlbanyNOAA/NWS WFO at Albany

MotivationMotivation

CSTAR II ProjectCSTAR II Project– Northeast Warm Season Severe WeatherNortheast Warm Season Severe Weather– Identify the role terrain features and land/water Identify the role terrain features and land/water

boundaries (i.e. Great Lakes, Long Island Sound, boundaries (i.e. Great Lakes, Long Island Sound, Chesapeake Bay, etc.) have on convective Chesapeake Bay, etc.) have on convective development and evolutiondevelopment and evolution

– Several case studies will analyzed and a climatology Several case studies will analyzed and a climatology will attempt to be developedwill attempt to be developed

– Mesoscale datasets (observational and model)Mesoscale datasets (observational and model)

Contributors to CSTAR II ProjectContributors to CSTAR II Project

Thomas Niziol, (MIC) WFO at BuffaloThomas Niziol, (MIC) WFO at Buffalo Bob LaPlante, (SOO) WFO at ClevelandBob LaPlante, (SOO) WFO at Cleveland Steven Zubrick, (SOO) WFO at SterlingSteven Zubrick, (SOO) WFO at Sterling Dr. Lance Bosart, University at AlbanyDr. Lance Bosart, University at Albany Dr. Daniel Keyer, University at AlbanyDr. Daniel Keyer, University at Albany Warren Snyder, (SOO) WFO at Albany Warren Snyder, (SOO) WFO at Albany

DataData

Surface and Upper Air Data (SPC)Surface and Upper Air Data (SPC) Soundings from SPC archiveSoundings from SPC archive 40-km RUC, 80 km ETA grids40-km RUC, 80 km ETA grids Satellite imagery Satellite imagery Radar data (High resolution KENX Radar data (High resolution KENX

Archive Level IV)Archive Level IV)

Background Background August 9, 2001 EventAugust 9, 2001 Event

A hot and very humid air mass was in place over A hot and very humid air mass was in place over NY and New EnglandNY and New England

Surface temps ranging from 32Surface temps ranging from 32˚C˚C to 37 to 37˚C˚C (Syracuse high temp of 100(Syracuse high temp of 100˚F <ASOS>)˚F <ASOS>)

Surface dewpoints 20-25˚C coupled with large Surface dewpoints 20-25˚C coupled with large values of surface based CAPE (exceeding 2000 values of surface based CAPE (exceeding 2000 J/kg)J/kg)

Numerous reports of straight line wind damage (60 Numerous reports of straight line wind damage (60 to 80 mph) in the Mohawk Valley and hail to the to 80 mph) in the Mohawk Valley and hail to the size of hen eggs (2 inches or 5.1 cm)size of hen eggs (2 inches or 5.1 cm)

Severe Weather ReportsSevere Weather Reports

Storm Reports across NortheastStorm Reports across Northeast

NY-VT-NH-ME

• 21 Wind Reports

• 2 Hail Reports

9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 500 hPa Raob Heights, Temps and Isotachs9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 500 hPa Raob Heights, Temps and Isotachs

www.spc.noaa.gov

9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 850 hPa Raob Heights, 9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 850 hPa Raob Heights, Temps, Dewpoints and IsotachsTemps, Dewpoints and Isotachs

www.spc.noaa.gov

www.spc.noaa.gov

9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 250 hPa Raob Heights, Temps and Isotachs9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 250 hPa Raob Heights, Temps and Isotachs

9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC ALB Sounding9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC ALB Sounding

www.spc.noaa.gov

9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC BUF Sounding9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC BUF Sounding

www.spc.noaa.gov

10 AUG 2001/0000 UTC BUF Sounding10 AUG 2001/0000 UTC BUF Sounding

www.spc.noaa.gov

10 AUG 2001/0000 UTC ALB Sounding10 AUG 2001/0000 UTC ALB Sounding

www.spc.noaa.gov

Lake Ontario SST’sLake Ontario SST’s

http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/

SPC1300 UTC and 1630 UTC DAY 1SPC1300 UTC and 1630 UTC DAY 1

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed

500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded

850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, and Theta-e (K) dashed and shaded (every 5K)

ETA: 9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

500 hPa Vorticity Advection (x10-10 s-1) shaded and Heights (dam) solid lines

250 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 6-hr and 12-hr Forecasts for

1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 6-hour Forecast for 18 UTC



ETA: 9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 6- hr forecast for 1800 UTC

700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent

850 hPa Winds (kts), 850-500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded

1500 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Surface Analysis1500 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Surface Analysis

1745 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Visible Satellite1745 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Visible Satellite

40 km RUC Analyses40 km RUC Analyses

9 AUG 2001/1500-2200 UTC9 AUG 2001/1500-2200 UTC

RUC: 9 August 2001/1500 UTC Analysis

2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)

2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)


2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)



MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness (dam)

Pressure tendency (mb/hour)

AUG 9 2001 2100 UTC Surface Analysis with Radar and Satellite

www.unisys.com

KENX Radar Analysis Highlights of the KENX Radar Analysis Highlights of the Severe Weather Event across Severe Weather Event across

New York and Western New EnglandNew York and Western New England

1958 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

2142 UTC KENX VIL Product

2141 UTC KENX Comp Ref X-Section

Herkimer Co. Storm

2146 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM and MESO Product

2156 UTC KENX COMP REF

2156 UTC KENX Echo Tops


2156 UTC KENX 0.5° Velocity

2156 UTC KENX Comp Ref X-Section

Herkimer Co. Storm


VIL=80 kg/m^2

2212 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM and MESO Product

2258 UTC KENX 0.5° Base REF

2258 UTC KENX 0.5° Velocity

0000 UTC KENX 0.5° Base REF

2354 UTC KENX VWP

Preliminary ResultsPreliminary Results

Lake breeze boundary from Lake Ontario sparked Lake breeze boundary from Lake Ontario sparked a cluster of well-organized severe thunderstorms, a cluster of well-organized severe thunderstorms, some of which were supercellular (some of which were supercellular (marginal shearmarginal shear))

Boundary interacted with a hot, humid and Boundary interacted with a hot, humid and unstable air mass and continued over a large areaunstable air mass and continued over a large area

850 hPa theta-e values advected into central and 850 hPa theta-e values advected into central and eastern NY in excess of 350Keastern NY in excess of 350K

Surface based CAPE values well in excess of Surface based CAPE values well in excess of 2000 J/kg (as high as possibly 5000 J/kg) provided 2000 J/kg (as high as possibly 5000 J/kg) provided plenty instability and surface dewpoints in excess plenty instability and surface dewpoints in excess of 21of 21°C°C an incredible amount of moisture an incredible amount of moisture

Future WorkFuture Work

To further explore mesoscale observational To further explore mesoscale observational and model data (10-km ETA and 20-km and model data (10-km ETA and 20-km RUC)RUC)

Create cross-sections of the evolution and Create cross-sections of the evolution and movement of the lake breeze boundarymovement of the lake breeze boundary

To compare this case with other possible To compare this case with other possible Lake Ontario and Lake Erie casesLake Ontario and Lake Erie cases

The August 9, 2001 Lake Breeze Severe Weather Event Across New York and Western New England Thomas...

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