* Based on Kamil Khan Mumtaz, ―Celebrating The Past, Designing for the Future‖ IAPEX 2012,

The Lahore Project

VisionThe Global Context*

• Global population

growth rates have been

dropping, from 1.5% in

the 1990‘s to currently

1.14%.

• Throughout the same two

decades, world GDP

growth remained around

an average of 1.8%.

• As a result we should all

have been better off. We

are not.

POPULATION GROWTH

VS ECONOMIC GROWTH

INEQUALITY

• In eight years the GDP has only

once dropped to less than 2.3%,

and has been over 3% in the last

two or three years. This period of

great economic growth also

witnessed a great global economic

crisis, has resulted in

unprecedented concentrations of

wealth, and the dispossession and

impoverishment of millions. (see

the BBC documentary ―Poor

America‖)

• Hunger and under-nourishment has

increased, so also has obesity and

illnesses associated with over-

eating.

• Today, one in seven people do not

get enough food to be healthy and

lead an active life, making hunger

and malnutrition the number one

risk to health worldwide -- greater

than AIDS, malaria and

tuberculosis combined.

(http://www.wfp.org/hunger/faqs)

HUNGER

Number of hungry people, 1969-2010

SOCIAL CRIME/INCOME DISPARITY

• ―… in states and countries where there is a big

gap between the incomes of rich and poor,

mental illness, drug and alcohol abuse, obesity

and teenage pregnancy are more common, the

homicide rate is higher, life expectancy is

shorter, and children‘s educational performance

and literacy scores are worse.

• The countries with the widest gulf between rich

and poor, and the highest incidence of most

health and social problems, are Britain, America

and Portugal.‖

• Kate Pickett (Senior Lecturer) and Richard Wilkinson (Visiting Professor)

lecture at York University's health sciences department. They are authors of

a new book The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do

Better.

GLOBAL HAPPY PLANET INDEX

The Global Happy Planet Index

(HPI), measures life expectancy,

life satisfaction and ecological

footprint.

Over the past fifty years (1961 –

2004) while income disparities

between countries has increased

dramatically, countries that dropped

to the lowest position on the GNP

rating are the ones that rose the

highest (Mexico) on the HPI, while

countries that rose to the highest

positions on the GNP scale are the

ones that dropped to the lowest

positions on the HPI.Andrew C. Revkin, NYT, October 4,

2005

http://www.happyplanetindex.org

• Bhutan, among the world's lowest

household incomes, also has:

• lowest crime rates in the world;

• first non-smoking country in the

world;

• life expectancy increased by 19 years

from 1984 to 1998;

• a constitution and an elected

government;

• 60 percent forested;

• exports hydropower to India;

• one traffic free day (Tuesday) each

week.

GLOBAL HAPPY PLANET

INDEX

• The Green Revolution brought

about a rise in agricultural

productivity from the mid-sixties

to around 1980. But the use of

fertilizers, pesticides, tube-wells,

tractors etc. has been increasing

with diminishing returns.

• In fact crop yields have been

going down in the last two

decades. Moreover, the collateral

damage has included the

depletion of aquifers, soil and

water pollution and degradation

of the gene stock.

AGRICULTURE

• The Earth is in the midst of the sixth mass

extinction of both plants and animals. "The

current extinction event is due to human

activity.

• The Earth might lose half of its species in

our lifetime. We want to know which ones

deserve the highest priority for

conservation.―

• 40 years ago, ocean productivity began

declining, having reached Maximum

Sustainable Yield. Recent studies, clearly

show the emergence of a catastrophe,

the Tragedy of the Oceans.

http://www.aquaculture.co.il/markets/deterioration.html

MASS EXTINCTION OF

SPECIES

• In 50 years, the global spread of commercial

fishing, use of sonar and satellites combined

with 30 km nets, and reckless fishing practices,

have cut by 90% the oceans population of edible

fish, (e.g. Blue Marlin, Cod, Halibut and Tuna).

• With today‘s fishing practices, it would take

only 15 years to remove 80-90% of any species

that becomes the focus of the fleet‘s attention,

bringing it to the verge of extinction.

• Because of the current crisis, biologists at UC

Santa Barbara are working day and night to

determine which species must be saved.

ScienceDaily (Oct. 20, 2008)

co-author Bradley J. Cardinale, assistant professor of ecology,

evolution and marine biology (EEMB) at UC Santa Barbara.

MASS EXTINCTION OF

SPECIES

• Arctic summers will ultimately

become ice free. Arctic sea ice in

September, the month of

minimum ice extent, is now

declining by more than 11 percent

per decade relative to the 1979 –

2000 baseline period. Leading

Arctic models predict that Arctic

summer sea ice may completely

disappear within the next 30 years

and possibly as early as the late

2020s.

GLOBAL WARMING

• Sea ice coverage in 1980 (bottom) and 2012 (top), as

observed by passive microwave sensors on NASA‘s Nimbus-7

satellite and by the Special Sensor Microwave

Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) from the Defense Meteorological

Satellite Program (DMSP)..http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oldest_Arctic_Sea_Ice_is_Disappear

ing.png

• Dr Maslowski's model, along with his claim that the Arctic

sea ice is in a "death spiral", were controversial but Prof

Wadhams, a leading authority on the polar regions, said "His

[model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller

around.

• "It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it

is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very

serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that

that's when it will happen."

• The ice would come back the following winter but its absence

in summer would encourage more shipping and oil

exploration in the Arctic and could threaten native species, he

added.

http://globalwarming.house.gov/impactzones/arctic

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/8877491/Arct

ic-sea-ice-to-melt-by-2015.html

GLOBAL WARMING

• Ecological Footprint Ecological

Footprint of less than 1.8 global

hectares per person makes a country‘s

resource demands globally replicable.

• The United Nations‘ Human

Development Index (HDI)—which

measures a country‘s average

achievements in the areas of health,

knowledge, and standard of living—

tells us that an HDI higher than 0.8 is

considered ―high human

development.‖

• Combining these two indicators gives

clear minimum conditions for

sustainable human development and

shows how much more we need to

―think inside the box.‖

The only country that meets both criteria of high standard of

living and a small ecological footprint is Cuba.

http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/fight

ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT

• The Ecological measures how much land and water area a

human population requires to produce the resource it

consumes and to absorb its carbon dioxide emissions.

• Since the 1970s, humanity has been in

ecological overshoot with annual demand on resources

exceeding what Earth can regenerate each year .

• It now takes the Earth one year and six months to regenerate

what we use in a year.

• We maintain this overshoot by liquidating the Earth‘s

resources. Overshoot is a vastly underestimated threat

to human well-being and the health of the planet.

http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/footprint

_basics_overview/

ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT

Qatar has the worst Ecological

footprint per person in the world.

• YOKOSUKA, Japan (AP) — To the

world's military leaders, the debate

over climate change is long over.

They are preparing for a new kind of

Cold War in the Arctic, anticipating

that rising temperatures there will

open up a treasure trove of

resources, long-dreamed-of sea

lanes and a slew of potential

conflicts.

RACE TO THE BOTTOM

• Mitsubushi executives had a plan

to seize on the impending collapse of

tuna stocks for their own profit. They

were buying up tons of tuna and

putting the meat in deep freeze, at -60

degrees celsius, in hopes of jacking up

the price after bluefins went extinct.

But the plan was apparently foiled by

the earthquake. Mitsubushi's

refrigerators lost power after Japan

was hit by a huge tsunami, ruining the

tuna steaks and dashing the company's

hopes of cornering the tuna market.

http://news.yahoo.com/ice-cap-melts-militaries-vie-arctic-

edge-072343565.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/12/bluefin-tuna-

extinction_n_924957.html

RACE TO THE BOTTOM

• Sustainable human development will occur

when all humans can have fulfilling lives

without degrading the planet. This, we believe,

is the ultimate goal. Two leading indicators

have identified how we can get there.

http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/fighting_

poverty_our_human_development_initiative/

SUSTAINABLE HUMAN

DEVELOPMENT

WHAT IS TO BE

DONE?WHEN IN FREE FALL

GET UNPLUGGED!

DESIGN PARACHUTES!

Chaley Sharif

Organic farming, artisanal manufacture, zero waste, 100%

re-cycling, these are no longer life-style options. These

are the imperatives of survival.

Low-tech, low embedded energy

materials and construction methods;

Low-rise; buildings in high density

settlements;

Pedestrian circulation;Animate and other forms of renewable

energy

Bina Jawad Khawaja Residence

This is not about romanticist traditionalism, or

celebrating tradition. It is simply about

survival, about doing the right thing.

WHAT IS TO BE

DONE?WHEN IN FREE FALL

GET UNPLUGGED!

DESIGN PARACHUTES!

The Lahore Project

Vision

Lahore Context• Population: 8.5 million (Lahore

District)

• Urban: 82 %

• Rural: 18%

• Growth Rate: 2.5% (national and provincial: 1.9%)

• Densities

• Highest: 1500 persons per hectare (Mustafabad)

• Lowest: 37 persons per hectare (Jauhar Town)

• Average: 208 persons per hectare.

• Age Profile

• Below 14 years: 39.2%

• Between 15 – 49: 50%

Large, Growing &

Young Population

Economy

• Occupations:

• Services: 38.8 %;

• White collar: 31 %;

• ‗lumpen‘: 19.5 %;

• Manufacturing: 10.4 %

• Employment by zone of residence

• Primary: 4.4%

• Secondary: 14.6%

• Tertiary: 81%

• Employment Participation rate: 27%

• Unemployment

• Exceeds those employed by 27%

• Female residents unemployment: 99%

• GDP: average growth rate declined from 6% in the 1980s to 3% in the last five years

• Incomes: Average Household Income for Towns/Tehsils(Pak Rs/month)

• Highest: 43,397 in Cantonment

• Lowest: 22,26 in Muridke.

•Declining

economic growth

•Non Productive

Occupations

•Under-

Employment

Physical Growth

Trends:

based on motorized circulation, a single central high-rise business district and cultural center, low-density suburbs, segregated and widely separated land-use zones, and open-ended growth in the size of its population and physical area are

Unsustainable

Period Cumulative

Developed

Area (km2)

Average

Growth Area

per year (ha)

Pre-British 23.8

1850 – 1900 68.7 90

1901-1950 71.2 48

1951-65 117.2 323

1966-80 175.7 390

1981-90 245.6 699

1991-2000 326.0 804

2001-2006 397.8 1196

The Lahore Project

• a citizens‘ initiative that has grown out of the

strategic framework adopted by the Lahore

Conservation Society in 2006.

• to know who we are (identity), where we are

(environment), where we are coming from

(history), where we want to be (goals), and

how to act for the achievement of our goals.

Sectors

• While thinking globally, we must necessarily act locally. Moreover, as individuals, each one of us has our specific spheres of interest and expertise in which we can participate most effectively. Thus the project is divided into focal areas or sectors.

• People;

• Land;

• Economy

• Environment

• Culture

• Physical Planning

• Utility infrastructure

• Transportation

• Social Infrastructure

• Governance

Methodology

• a space for the pooling and sharing of

information (Data),

• free and open discussion (Forum),

• formulation of strategies (Sectors) through a

process of informed debate and concrete plans

for action:

ISDP(LDA‘s Integrated Strategic Development Plan for Lahore Region)

• ―Urbanization presents one of the key challenges and, at the same time, opportunities in the new millennium‖

• ―Those cities that fail to plan ahead and execute the plans will not be competitive in the globalized world. Urban economies are contributing significantly more to national exchequer and at the same time have become key employment markets. Cities indeed are important engines of economic growth and provide significant economies of scale in the provision of jobs, housing and services.‖ (our italics)

Rapid Pace of Urbanization

• a symptom of the present global ecological crisis.

• principal cause is the modern development paradigm.

• It is the pursuit of never-ending economic growth that has resulted in over-production, depletion of resources, waste, environmental degradation, social disintegration and dehumanization.

Global Capitalism‘s Vision

is

A Recipe for Disaster!

• We do not share this corporate business vision

of rapid urbanization as an investment

opportunity, and cities as employment markets,

whose expanding size provides economies of

scale for profiteers who are valorized for their

contribution to the national exchequer.

The City & its Region

• Cities process primary raw materials,

manufacturer secondary products and provide

services.

• Economically they are integrated with the

region that produces the primary products, and

the region to which they provide goods and

services.

Parasite & Host

• In a symbiotic relationship, the value of what

each takes from the other is more or less

equivalent to what it gives.

• In a parasitic relationship the city extracts

resources in excess of their rates of renewal

and re-generation, and produces toxic and non-

recyclable waste.

Our Goal

• Realization of our highest human potential.

• the greatest challenges of the new millennium is the conservation of our humanity and our environment

• Our humanity is defined by the universal set of qualities and values that define what it means to be ―human‖ – qualities such as Love, Compassion, Justice and Beauty – not by quantities such as gross national product, monetary wealth and material possessions

Our strategy

• sustainable economy based on need rather than

greed;

• an economy in which

– extraction from resources does not exceed their

rates of renewal and re-generation;

– all that is consumed is fully recycled;

– toxic and non-recyclable waste is eliminated;

Our Vision for Lahore

A center of urbanity and civilization

A city that thrives in a symbiotic relationship

with its region.