Vermont Power Supply The Very Big Picture · 3/29/2005 · 177 Water St. Gardiner, Maine USA 04345...
Transcript of Vermont Power Supply The Very Big Picture · 3/29/2005 · 177 Water St. Gardiner, Maine USA 04345...
Website:http://www.raponline.org
The Regulatory Assistance Project177 Water St.
Gardiner, Maine USA 04345Tel: 207.582.1135
Fax: 207.582.1176
50 State Street, Suite 3Montpelier, Vermont USA 05602Tel: 802.223.8199Fax: 802.223.8172
Vermont Power SupplyThe Very Big Picture
Richard SedanoMarch 29, 2005
Introduction
Regulatory Assistance ProjectRAP is a non-profit organization, formed in 1992, that
provides workshops and education assistance to state government officials on electric utility regulation. RAP is funded by the Energy Foundation, the US EPA and the US DOE.
Richard Sedano was Commissioner of the Vermont Department of Public Service, 1991-2001, and presently serves on the Montpelier Planning Commission
Electric IndustryPolicy Goals
ReliableSafeSustainableEnvironmentally SoundConsistent
AdequateSecureEfficient (Fair)AffordableEncourage Economic Vitality
Keep These in Mind as You Listen to Speakers
Where we are – Undiversified, Committed with Efficiency
Vermont is different from New England
Summer 2003 MW
Very Commodity (Gas and Oil) Heavy
What to do?
You are here
New England faces a gap around the same time
Consumption!
GWh
From the DPS Electric Plan
DOE EIA
Summer Growth Is Key to Forecast of Demand
MW
Load Center
New Projects
Added projects will be needed if load continues to grow
Natural Gas Cost UP!
http://www.naruc.org/associations/1773/files/david_biegler_agf_w05.pdf
The Crystal Ball on Price Is Foggy
Big spread
A Carbon Gap: What are the economic implications?
U.S. DOE EIA 2005 Annual Energy Outlook
1990 level
Efficiency is cheaperPower Costs vs. Efficiency Vermont Costs for 2002 & 2003
NE-ISO Average Monthly Price
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan-0
2
Feb-
02
Mar-02
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-0
2
Jul-0
2
Aug-0
2Sep
-02
Oct-02
Nov-0
2Dec
-02
Jan-0
3
Feb-
03
Mar-03
Apr-03
Cen
ts p
er K
illow
atth
our
EfficiencySavings:
1 cent/KWh(Jan 2002),more than
6 cents/KWh(Mar 2003).Currently
3.6 cents/KWh
Delivered Cost of Wholesale Power * Wholesale Spot Market Price Efficiency Vermont, Contract Commitment
DPS: "MAXIMUM ACHIEVABLE SAVINGS" FROM ENERGY EFFICIENCY
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GW
h
30%(2175GWh)
Existing Policy
Potential
Customer Generation is Efficient
The US Status Quo
Challenges for VermontPower Supply ReplacementMaintaining environmental qualityLowering costs
Pressure on low income customers due to higher energy costsPressure from large businesses due to prevailing rates
Vermont Yankee specific issues (fuel, license)Degree of control of our destinyWind sitingPlanning to integrate power, efficiency, and transmission
Degree of Control of Vermont’s Destiny
What can Vermont do?Developing in-state resources driven by planning
Efficiency to put the breaks on load growthClean, small scale and customer-sited generationWind, to the extent it meets other objectivesBy the way, this brings economic growth for Vermont
Reduce need for new power linesContinue significant use of long term contracts
“Control” not the issue, rather external forces risky
Regulatory Challenges
Watch the clock (timing matters)Right balance of incentives for utilities
Right means consistent with the public interest (changes needed!)Not: best short run deal for utilities or consumers
Keep doing well what Vermont already does well (see goals)