Vail Valley Symposium An Economic Recovery Taking Shape

Richard WobbekindSenior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government RelationsBusiness Research DivisionUniversity of Colorado Boulder

March 25, 2021

colorado.edu/business/brd

What is that Light at the End of the Tunnel ?

U.S. Real GDP$

Tri

llio

ns

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

19.0

20.0

21.0

Q1 2015 Q4 2015 Q3 2016 Q2 2017 Q1 2018 Q4 2018 Q3 2019 Q2 2020 Q1 2021 Q4 2021 Q3 2022

Q4 2019

Q3

Q3 2020

Q1

-31.4% SAAR-9% YoY

+33.1% SAAR-2.9% YoY

Consumption

Investment

Net Exports

FederalState and local

Q4

+4.1% SAAR-2.4% YoY

U.S Nonfarm EmploymentM

illi

on

s o

f J

ob

s

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES (Seasonally Adjusted).

130

135

140

145

150

155

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Jan. 2017145.6 million

Feb. 2020152.5 million

February 2021143 million

April 2020130.3 million

March 2020151.1 million

0

DETAIL

National Employment Months to Recovery

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

-16.0

-14.0

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72

Percent

Number of Months Since Peak

2008-20142001-051990-93 1981-831974-761980

2020

-6.3%-6.2%

Employment Growth1-Year Growth, January 2021

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

Bachelor's degree and higher

55 years and over

35 to 44 years

White

45 to 54 years

Women

Total

Men

25 to 34 years

Asian

High School grad., no college

Hispanic or Latino

Less than a High School diploma

Black or African American

20 to 24 years

16 to 19 years

February 2020

Peak (April/May)

February 2021

National Unemployment Rate

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Labor Underutilization

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

U-6

11.1%

U-3

Percentage of Labor Force

6.2%

Average U-6

Average U-3

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

Labor Force Participation Rate

Percent of Population, 16 and Over

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

Apr. 2020:

60.2%

67.4%Total

Women

Men

61.4%

55.8%

Personal Income

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Transfer Receipts

Proprietor Income

Contributions to Social Insurance

Dividends, Interest, and Rent

Employee Compensation

$ B

illi

on

s, S

easo

na

lly

Ad

j. A

nn

ua

l R

ate

Personal Income and Savings

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Percen

t, Sea

son

ally

Ad

justed

An

nu

al R

ate

Tri

llio

ns,

Sea

son

all

y A

dju

sted

An

nu

al

Ra

te

Personal Income (L-Axis)Personal Consumption Expenditures (L-Axis)Personal Savings Rate (R-Axis)

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve.

Household Wealth

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B.101) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

$ T

rill

ion

s

Mutual Funds

Corporate Equities

Real Estate

Other Assets

Household Debt Burden

Percent of Disposable Income

Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

DS

RF

OR

Debt Service Ratio (Left Axis)

Financial Obligations Ratio (Right Axis)

National Retail and Food Services Sales

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

$ M

illi

on

s

-13% peak to trough,

41 months to return to peak

-22.1% peak to trough,

5 months to return to peak

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

February 2021:+6.3% year-over-year

-3%% from prior month

National Retail Sales, February YoY

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Food services & drinking places

Department stores

Clothing & clothing accessories

Electronics & appliance stores

Gasoline stations

Miscellaneous store retailers

Health & personal care stores

Total

Furniture & home furn stores

Motor vehicle & parts dealers

Food & beverage stores

Building material & garden equip

Sporting goods, hobby, musical

Year-over-Year Percent Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade (Advance Estimate), September 2020.

Sales Tax CollectionsColorado

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$, 12

-Mo

nth

Su

m

$ M

illi

on

s, M

on

th

Sources: Individual City and State revenue websites.

Year to Date Growth Figures

Denver Metro (Dec.) -4.7%

City of Boulder (Dec.) -8.8%

Louisville (Dec.) -2.9%

Longmont (Dec.) 4.3%

Superior (Nov.) 18.1%

Lone Tree (July) -28.1%

Fort Collins (Dec.) -3.3%

Greeley (Dec.) -6.7%

Thornton (Dec.) 5.5%

Grand Junction (Dec.) -2.6%

Colorado Springs (Dec.) -0.15%

Pueblo (Dec.) 2.9%

Colorado (Dec.) 2.3%

December YTD: 2.3%Month YoY: -1.4%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Va

lue,

$ B

illi

on

s

+4.7%

National Value of Construction

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau.

Commercial

Residential

+11.8%

-0.1%

Manufacturing

Lodging

Office

Amusement and recreation

Educational

Conservation and development

Transportation

Religious

Communication

Sewage and waste disposal

Highway and street

Health Care

Water supply

Commercial

Public safety

Power

-10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000Value, $ Millions

Change in National Nonresidential Value of Construction

2020 Year-over-Year

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau.

-4,000

-3,500

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

$ B

illi

on

s

-$3,132

-$1,619

-$-2,792

Sources: Office of Management and Budget, Consensus Forecasts, and the Business Research Division.

Federal Budget Balance

2000 to 2022

Money and Prices

The FED

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Other Assets

Mortgage Backed Securities

Federal Agency Debt Securities

Treasury Securities

$ M

illi

on

s

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Interest Rates

Sources: Federal Reserve and Freddie Mac.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021

Per

cen

t

10-Year T-Note

3-Month T-Bill

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average

Inflation

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

0

1

2

3

4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Per

cen

t C

ha

ng

e

All Items

United StatesDenver-Aurora-Lakewood MSA

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Per

cen

t C

ha

ng

e

All Items Less Shelter

0

2

4

6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Per

cen

t C

ha

ng

e

Shelter

0

2

4

6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020P

erce

nt

Ch

an

ge

Medical Care

Colorado Population, Employment, and the Economy

Colorado Rank Among Other States

Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (2020), Bureau of Labor Statistics (1/21), U.S. Census Bureau (2019), Bureau of Labor Statistics (2020),

Federal Housing Finance Agency All Transactions Index (Q4 2020), BRD calculations. *Unemployment rate for the last month.

Metric 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year

Real GDP Growth 5 4 6 5

Employment Growth 27 12 6 4

Population Growth 8 7 7 3

Personal Income Growth 48 17 11 3

PCPI Growth 48 35 24 6

PCPI 12 11 14 22

Average Hourly Wage % Growth 22 28 31 36

Average Annual Pay % Growth 21 6 8 8

Average Annual Pay 8 9 12 12

Unemployment Rate 35 9 1 32

Labor Force % Growth 4 3 2 3

LFPR 4 6 7 12

FHFA Home Price Index Growth 27 17 6 4

Colorado Change in Population

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Th

ou

san

ds

Ne

t M

igr

atio

nN

atu

ra

l In

cr

ea

se

Colorado’s population changes• 67k in 2019

• 55k in 2020

• 53k in 2021

COVID impact on migration• To the State

• Within the State

Temporary or permanent?

Sources: Colorado Demography Office, U.S. Census Bureau, and the Business Research Division.

Population Change by County2020-2021

Source: Colorado Demography Office.

Colorado Employment Growth

Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

-180

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Jo

bs

Ad

ded

, T

ho

usa

nd

s

Employment by MSA

1-Year Change, January 2021

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Per

cen

t C

ha

ng

e

Denver-Aurora-

LakewoodMSA

GreeleyMSA-7.6%

PuebloMSA

Fort CollinsMSA-4.9%

Colorado Springs

MSA

Grand Junction

MSA

BoulderMSA

Jobless Claims Colorado

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Init

ial

Cla

ims,

Sea

son

all

y A

dju

sted

Initial Claims

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Feb

Ma

r

Init

ial

Cla

ims,

Sea

son

all

y A

dju

sted

Continued Claims

Sources: United States Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration,

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, Seasonally Adjusted. Note: Excludes PUA claims.

Unemployment Rate by CountyJanuary 2021

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted),

National 6.2%Colorado 6.6%

Accommodation and Food ServicesGovernment

Arts, Entertainment, and RecreationLocal Government

Healthcare and Social AssistanceOther Services

Admin and Waste MgmtState Government

Mining and LoggingConstruction

ManufacturingEducational Services

InformationWholesale Trade

Real Estate and Rental and LeasingProf., Scientific, and Tech. Services

Retail Trade

Federal GovernmentMgmt of Companies and Enterprises

Finance and InsuranceTransportation and Utilities

-70 -50 -30 -10 10Percent

Accommodation and Food ServicesGovernmentArts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Local GovernmentHealthcare and Social Assistance

Other ServicesAdmin and Waste Mgmt

State GovernmentMining and Logging

ConstructionManufacturing

Educational Services

InformationWholesale Trade

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Prof., Scientific, and Tech. ServicesRetail Trade

Federal Government

Mgmt of Companies and EnterprisesFinance and Insurance

Transportation and Utilities

-80,000 -60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000

Jobs

Colorado Employment Change

January Year-over-Year

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Colorado Employment by Wage GroupPercent Change from January 2020

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics CES (Seasonally Adjusted).

Note: Wage terciles are determined by calculating the average annual wage for each industry as of Q1 2020 and grouping each industry’s total employment.

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

January February March April May June July August September October NovemberDecember January

Percent

High Income: >$75k

Middle Income: $50k-75k

Low Income: <$50k

Tourism

Photo courtesy of Dustin Doskocil/CPW.

DIA Enplanements and Deplanements2000-2020

Sources: Denver International Airport and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee. Photo courtesy of Denver International Airport.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Mil

lio

ns

Monthly

3-Month Moving Average

Dec.2019

Dec.2020

-45.4% YoY

Change

December YTD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Million66.4

Sources: National Park Service and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee. Photo courtesy of Dustin Doskocil/CPW.

Colorado Public Lands Visits

2011 - 2021

National Snowsports Visits

1983/84 - 2019/20

Source: NSAA, National Skier/Snowboarder Visits.

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1983/84 1989/90 1995/96 2001/02 2007/08 2013/14 2019/20

Millions

51.1

U.S. visits down 13.8%

Lowest visitation since snow-

challenged 2011/12 season

Suspended Colorado ski operations

mid-March

Guest caution mixed with pent-up

demand

Leisure & Hospitality Employment

Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Leisure & Hospitality Employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES.

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Per

cen

t o

f E

sta

bli

shm

ents

Construction& Real Estate

FHFA Home Price Index by MSA

1-Year Home Price Change, Q4 2020

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Index (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Per

cen

t C

ha

ng

e

Denver-Aurora-

LakewoodMSA

GreeleyMSA

PuebloMSA

Fort CollinsMSA

Colorado Springs

MSA

Grand Junction

MSA Boulder MSA

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Va

lue

in B

illi

on

s

Colorado Value of Construction

Source: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics. Northern MSAs include Denver, Boulder, Fort Collins, and Greeley. *Excluding one $743M project in Cheyenne County.

Nonbuilding -9.9%Nonresidential -5.5%

Residential 11.5%Total 3.6%

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020V

alu

e in

Mil

lio

ns

Colorado Excluding Northern MSAs

Total 8.3%*22.1%

YTDJan.2020

YTDJan.2021

$1.4 B $1.7 B

YTDJan.2020

YTDJan.2021

$473.3 M$631.3 M

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Per

mit

s

Residential Building Permits

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee. Northern MSAs include Denver, Boulder, Fort Collins, and Greeley.

Multifamily

Single Family

Colorado

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Per

mit

s

+31.3%

Excluding Northern MSAs

+11.6% NoCo:2020: 0%

Eagle County Residential Building Permits

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Multifamily

Single Family

Colorado Ski Counties

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Thousands

Natural IncreaseNet Migration

Ski Counties – Population Change

Ski Counties increases• 2,000 in 2019• 2,600 in 2020

Nearly half of the increase from migration

Stable growth

Slower pace than the state

Declining Natural Increase

Eagle County increases• 179 in 2019• 378 in 2020

Source: Colorado Demography Office, U.S. Census Bureau, and the Business Research Division.

Jobless Claims Colorado

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

De

c

Ja

n

Fe

b

Init

ial

Cla

ims,

Sea

son

all

y A

dju

sted

Initial Claims

Colorado – Left AxisSki – Right Axis

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Jun

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Fe

b

Init

ial

Cla

ims,

Sea

son

all

y A

dju

sted

Continued Claims

Colorado – Left AxisSki – Right Axis

Sources: United States Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration,

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, Seasonally Adjusted. Note: Excludes PUA claims.

Unemployment Rate

January 2021

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

0

5

10

15

20

25

Per

cen

t C

ha

ng

e

SanMiguel

La Plata

Clear Creek

Archuleta, Pitkin

Gunnison

Chaffee

Routt

Summit

Lake

Garfield

Grand

Eagle

Resident Employment Change

January 2021

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Per

cen

t C

ha

ng

e, Y

ear-

ov

er-Y

ear

San Miguel

La Plata

Gunnison

San Juan

Archuleta Routt

Eagle

Clear Creek, Pitkin

Summit

GarfieldChaffee

Grand, Lake

Le

isu

re

& H

os

pa

lity

Co

ns

tru

cti

on

Fin

an

cia

l A

cti

vit

ies

Oth

er

Se

rv

ice

s

PB

S

TT

U

Go

ve

rn

me

nt

Ed

uc

ati

on

/He

alt

h

Se

rv

ice

s

Info

rm

ati

on

Na

tur

al

Re

so

ur

ce

s/M

inin

g

Ma

nu

fac

tur

ing

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Lo

cati

on

Qu

oti

ent

Industry Location QuotientsEagle County compared to the U.S., 2019 Annual

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Average Annual WagesSki Counties

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000 Colorado: $64,650

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW, as of Q3 2020.

Eagle County Employment12-Month Rolling Average

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Thousands

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.

September YoY-3,700 jobs, -11.2%

Daily Commute

Eagle County

Vail

Sources: Census OntheMap, 2017 and the

Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2019..

$224.3 M Personal income outflow

Ski Counties Personal Income

-$1

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

Bil

lio

ns

Personal Current Transfer Payments

Dividends, Interest, Rent

Earnings by Place of Work

Contributions for Social Insurance

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2019.

Adjustments for Residence

Household Income in Eagle County

0

5

10

15

20

25

Less than$10,000

$10,000 to$14,999

$15,000 to$24,999

$25,000 to$34,999

$35,000 to$49,999

$50,000 to$74,999

$75,000 to$99,999

$100,000 to$149,999

$150,000 to$199,999

$200,000 ormore

Per

cen

t o

f H

ou

seh

old

Median income (dollars) $84,790Mean income (dollars) $118,174

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2018.

Indicators

Photo by Riccardo Annandale on Unsplash.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Index 1985=100

Consumer Confidence

United States

Mountain Region

Index of Consumer Confidence

Sources: The Conference Board, National Bureau of Economic Research, University of Michigan.

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

1980 1988 1996 2004 2012 2020

Consumer Sentiment

ISM Indices

Source: Institute for Supply Management® (ISM).

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

ISM Manufacturing PMI® Index

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

ISM Services PMI® Index

Percent of Small Business Establishments

Percent of Establishments with Less Than 20 Employees

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.

80%

85%

90%

95%

Per

cen

t o

f E

sta

bli

shm

ents

Colorado#17

89% of firms have fewerthan 20 employees

Young Establishments

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Per

cen

t o

f E

sta

bli

shm

ents

Colorado#4

30% of firms are 5 or Younger

Young Businesses and Employment Growth

Sources: Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%

34%

36%

38%

40%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%

Colorado

Utah

West Virginia

Per

cen

t o

f E

sta

bli

shm

ents

, 2

01

8

Average Employment Growth, 2011-2019

AlaskaOregon

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Ba

nk

rup

tcie

s

Chapter 7Chapter 11Chapter 13

Colorado Bankruptcy Filings

Sources: U.S. Bankruptcy Courts.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Colorado Foreclosures

Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, Division of Housing.

Sales

Filings

Sales: -62%

Filings: -52%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42

2-W

ee

k A

ve

ra

ge

, Y

ea

r-o

ve

r-Y

ea

r G

ro

wth

Week

New Entity Filings, Year-over-Year

Sources: Colorado Secretary of State’s Office.

National and State Expectations

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Q22003

Q22005

Q22007

Q22009

Q22011

Q22013

Q22015

Q22017

Q22019

Q22021

Colorado

United States

Index (50=Neutral)

Venture Capital Investment

Colorado

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Millions

Source: CB Insights.

Sample 2019 Deals:

DispatchHealthSomaLogicEdgewise TherapeuticsJumpCloudOutriderAMP RoboticsEnliven Therapeutics

Headwinds, Unknowns, and Tailwinds

Human BehaviorReal Estate/Construction

DroughtFires

ProductivityEducation

Work from Home

COVID-19 VariantTourism

Events and ConventionsBusiness FailuresPolitical Unrest

Racial Strife

Gross Domestic ProductFederal Stimulus 2/3

VaccineRetail Sales

EnergyBiopharmaAgricultureTechnology

Telework Due to Pandemic

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS) Supplemental Data.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Telework Percent

0% 20% 40% 60%

Accomm and food

Agriculture

Construction

Retail trade

Trans and utilities

Other services

Mgmt and admin

Health care

Arts, ent., and rec.

Manufacturing

Wholesale trade

Mining

Real estate

Public admin

Education

Information

Finance

Prof. and tech services

Industry

Pandemic Peak (May)

January 2021

Q&A