UNWTO Tourism 2020

Workshop on Tourism Competitiveness and International Tourism Trends Bangkok, Thailand, 24-26 March 2009

John G.C. KesterChief of Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

[email protected]

UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

Day 3: Long-term trends: Tourism 2020 Vision update


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Long-term trends and forecasts UNWTO Tourism 2020 VisionOverview


UNWTO Tourism 2020 VisionSeries of 7 Reports: - Global Forecast and Profiles of Market Segments - 6 regional volumes

See: www.unwto.org/infoshopUNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

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WTO Tourism 2020 VisionWhat is it?A program of research and forecasting as a continuation of WTOs work in the area of tourism forecasts initiated in 1990 (The Global Tourism Forecasts to the Year 2000 and Beyond set of reports).

Objectives?to identify the key trends in tourism supply and demand worldwide and by region; and their impact on the various sectors of the tourism trades; together with implications for policy making and relevant strategies.

Where are the quantitative estimates based on?past performance in tourism development assessment by experts of future growth trendsUNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

Tourism ProspectsShort-term forecast Focus on current situation and cyclical trends political and economic climate (coyuntura) Use: operational / tactical, i.e.: marketing and promotion activities capacity management, pricing, etc. Focus on structural, underlying trends demographic, social, political, economic and technological developments Use: strategic, i.e.: planning of infrastructure, product development, legislation, competitive framework master plans, strategic marketing planning, HRUNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

Long-term forecast

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International Tourist Arrivals Worldwide Growth Rate 1960-202016 14 12 10 % 8 6 4 2 0 1960 -2 Actual Trend Actual Forecasts

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020


Tourist Arrivals by Receiving Region Growth Rate, 1950- 202025 Actual 20 Forecasts World East Asia/Pacific Af./ ME/ SA Europe Americas

%

15

10

5

0 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020


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Destinations each time more diversifiedRank 1 2 3 4 5 1950 United States Canada Italy France Switzerland Share 1970 Italy Canada France Spain United States Share 1990 France United States Spain Italy Austria Share 2005 France Spain United States China Italy Share

71%

43%

39%

33%

6 7 8 9 10

Ireland Austria Spain17% Germany United Kingdom

Austria Germany Switzerland22% Yugoslavia United Kingdom

Mexico Germany United Kingdom 18% Canada China

United Kingdom Mexico Germany Turkey Austria

14%

11 12 13 14 15

Norway Argentina Mexico Netherlands Denmark

9%

Hungary Czechoslovakia Belgium10% Bulgaria Romania

Greece Portugal Switzerland Yugoslav SFR Malaysia

9%

Russian Federation Canada Ukraine11% Malaysia Poland

Others Total

3% 25 million

Others

25% 166 million

Others

34% 436 million

Others

42% 803 million


Tourist Arrivals by Receiving RegionAverage Annual Growth Rate, 1995- 2020

7.1% 6.5% 6.2% 5.5%

3.8% 4.1% 3.0%

World

Middle East

East Asia/Pacific

South Asia

Africa

Americas

Europe


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International Tourist Arrivals, 19502020 Current situation and forecasts UNWTO Tourism 2020 VisionActual 1,600 1,400 1 bn 1,200 million 1,000 800 600 400 200 01950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2007 2010 2020

Forecasts 1.6 b

Middle East Africa Asia and the Pacific Americas Europe536 mn

903 mn


Tourist Arrivals by Receiving RegionMarket Share (%) - 199559%

2% 4% 15% 20%

Market Share (%) - 202046%

Europe Middle East Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific

4% 27% 18% 5%


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Forecasts by Receiving RegionInternational Tourist Arrivals, 1995-2020Base Year 1995 Forecasts 2010 2020 Market share (%) 1995 100 3.6 19.3 14.4 2020 100 5.0 18.1 25.4 Average annual growth rate (%) 1995-2020 4.1 5.5 3.8 6.5

(Million) World Africa Americas East Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East South Asia 565 20 110 81 1006 47 190 195 1561 77 282 397

336 14 4

527 36 11

717 69 19

59.8 2.2 0.7

45.9 4.4 1.2

3.1 6.7 6.2


Worldwide, share of Interregional arrivals increasesOrigin of International Tourist Arrivals, 1995-2020

199582% 18%

202076% 24%Intraregional Interregional


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and more oftenFourth Holiday

Third Holiday

Second Holiday

Main Holiday

1990

2000

2020


Worlds Top Destinations 2020Tourist arrivals (Million) 130 106 102 74 57 54 53 49 48 44 %growth rate p.a.Market share (%) 1995-2020 8.3 6.8 6.6 4.7 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.1 2.7 7.8 2.3 3.5 2.6 7.1 3.4 2.1 3.6 8.5 4.0

Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 China France United States Spain Hong Kong (China) United Kingdom Italy Mexico Russian Fed. Czech Rep.


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Worlds Top Outbound Countries 2020Total arrivals generated worldwide (Million) 153 142 123 100 95 55 46 35 31 31

Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Germany Japan United States China United Kingdom France Netherlands Italy Canada Russian Fed.

Market share (%) 9.8 9.1 7.9 6.4 6.1 3.5 2.9 2.3 2.0 2.0


Established markets Still far from saturated, however growth potential is comparatively moderate Growth both from: increase of participation, but tourism is already available for broad part of society Increased frequency: more frequent but shorter stays

Changes in consumer profile and behaviour: (more) mature and experienced, well travelled and better educated consumers that know what they want and what they can get search for value for money more fickle and less loyal shift in power from producers to consumers (from a sellers to a buyers market)Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services SectionUNWTO

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Emerging markets still huge potential for growth to exploit from current travellers but above all from new emerging middle classes sizable populations currently still only take part in international tourism very limitedly

many emerging economies show rapid economic growth resulting in increasing disposable incomes a relative big share of this increase will be spent on tourism (domestic as well as international)

shift from traditional source markets (Western Europe, USA, Canada, Japan,) to alternative ones (Central and Eastern Europe, China, India, Rep. of Korea, Singapore, Middle East, Mexico, etc.)UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

International Tourist Arrivals by Subregion Average Annual Growth Rate, 1995-2020

Average Annual Growth Rate(number of countries between brackets) > 6.6 % (25)

5.1 - 6.5 % (57) 3.6 - 5.0 % (96) 0 - 3.5 % (37)


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Asia and the Pacific source marketsInternational Tourist Arrivals by region of origin350

million300 250 200

318

Asia and the Pacific Europe Americas Africa & Middle East153

150 100

122 63

58 11 6 1 19 31 11 2 14 23 22020**

50 0 1995

4

2005

2010**


Changes in markets: general Further diversification of tourism product, although some forms of tourism might reach saturation Demographic changes: aging population change in composition of families Immigration / emigration

Growth in VFR Increase in independent travel and Do it yourself New opportunities offered by Low cost carriers: broadening of market Internet: facilitating flexibility and transparency

Use of 2nd homeUNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

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Changes in markets: shrinking world Continued growth of demand and supply Proliferation of destinations and source markets Increase in participation and trip frequency Also further away, within region and interregional: trips to other regions grow at faster pace (5.4% a year between 1995-2020) than within own region (3.8% a year)

A global market is developing Economic Integration/Globalisation Cost of transport going down or growing at slower pace than accommodation and other costs On the supply side: many destinations with ambitious expansion plans Intensified competition UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

8 Trends that will shape tourism in the mid-term Increased concern for safety and security More mature and experienced travellers Increasing competition Stress on value for money Aging population Shift from service to experience Incorporation of new technologies Importance of sustainable development


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Long-term trends and forecasts UNWTO Tourism 2020 Visionrevisited


Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast World1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 million 800 600 400 200 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

International Tourist Arrivals Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Actual 1995-20081.0 bn 924 mn 1.6 bn

537 mn

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Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast WorldInternational Tourist Arrivals12 Average annual Tourism 2020 Vision forecast 10 growth rate 8 (%) Actual 1995-2007 6 4 2 0

10.9

6.5

7.0 5.5 3.9 2.3

6.8

7.1

4.1 4.4

3.0

3.8

(2007, mn) proj.856 actual903 diff.47

World

Europe

Asia & Pacific Americas

Africa

Middle East

440 484 44

175 184 9

172 142 -30

38 44 6

31 48 17


Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Europe800 700 600 500 million 400 300 200 100 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

International Tourist Arrivals Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Actual 1995-2007527 mn 484 mn 717 mn

311 mn

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Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast EuropeAverage 12 annual 10 growth Tourism 2020 Vision forecast rate (%) Actual 1995-20078 6 4 2 0

International Tourist Arrivals

3.8 3.0 3.8

4.0 1.9 2.7

4.2

3.9 2.8

4.6

Europe

Northern

Western


Central / Eastern Southern / Mediterranean

56 58 2

140 155 15

100 96 -4

144 176 32


Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Asia and the Pacific450 400 350 300 250 million 200 150 100 50 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

International Tourist Arrivals Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Actual 1995-2006416 mn

206 mn 167mn

82 mn

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Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Asia and the PacificAverage 12 annual 10 growth rate (%)8 6 4 2 0

International Tourist ArrivalsTourism 2020 Vision forecast 6.7 6.5 6.6 7.8 Actual 1995-2006 6.3 5.9 6.3 6.2 7.1

2.4

Asia and the North-East Asia South-East AsiaOceania Pacific

South Asia


78 94 16

49 54 5

15 11 -4

8 9 1


Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast The Americas300 250 200 million 150 100109 mn 136 mn

International Tourist Arrivals Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Actual 1995-2006190 mn 282 mn

50 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

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Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast The AmericasInternational Tourist Arrivals12 Average annual Tourism 2020 Vision forecast 10 growth rate (%) Actual 1995-2006 8 6 4 2 0

9.3

3.9 2.0

3.5 1.1

5.3 4.3 3.0 4.3 4.3

(2006, mn) proj.164 actual136 diff.-28

Americas

North America Caribbean Central America South America

115 91 -24

22 19 -3

4 7 3

22 19 -3


Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Africa80 70 60 50 million 40 30 20 10 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

International Tourist Arrivals Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Actual 1995-200647 mn 41 mn 77 mn

20 mn

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Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast The Middle East80 70 60 50 million 40 30 20 10 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

International Tourist Arrivals Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Actual 1995-200669 mn

41 mn 36 mn

14 mn

Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Africa and the Middle East12 Average annual 10 growth rate (%) 8 6 4 2 0

International Tourist ArrivalsTourism 2020 Vision forecast 6.8 6.6 5.5 3.9 Actual 1995-2006 6.2 6.5 7.1 10.4

Africa

North Africa

(2006, mn) proj. 38 actual 41 diff. 3

Subsaharan Africa

Middle East

11 15 4

27 26 -1

29 41 12


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International Tourist Arrivals by region of destinationMarket Share (%) - 199558%

3% 4% 15% 20%

Market Share (%) - 200654%

Europe Asia and the Pacific Americas Africa Middle East

5% 5% 20% 16%


Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Worlds Top destinations 2020International Tourist Arrivals12

Average 10 annual 8.6 growth 7.8 rate 8 (%)6 4 2 0

Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Actual 1995-2006 7.3 6.8 7.1 7.2

4.8 2.3 2.5 3.5 2.6 1.5 2.6 2.1 0.5 0.7 3.4 3.2 3.6 3.6

Ch ina

an Fr ce

s tat dS e ite Un

ain Sp

ly Ita

m do ing dK ite Un


a) ico tio Me ra n (C Fe hin x ng ian de Ko ng ss Ho Ru

da na Ca

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Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Rising stars (destinations > 5 mn)International Tourist Arrivals20 18

17.4

Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Actual 1995-2006

Average 16 annual growth 14 rate (%)12 10 8 6 4 2 0

8.4

9.3 5.5

10.5 8.1 5.0 8.8 6.9 5.9 8.0 5.9 4.3 3.1 7.4

11.2

11.3

6.6

6.9

4.3 1.2

4.9

y ma Ger n

a ati Cr o

ys y rke Ma ia Tu la

ia Ind

tes ain mi hr Ba bE ra ra .A Un UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section co oc Mor ia ric nis Af a Tu ut h So

t yp Eg

Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Outbound tourismInternational Tourist Arrivals12 Average Tourism 2020 Vision forecast annual 10 growth Actual 1995-2006 rate 8 (%) 6

9.0 6.4 6.1 6.2 6.1

4.1 4.24 2 0

3.4

3.9 3.1 2.5

5.8


World

Europe

Asia & Pacific Americas

Africa

Middle East

451 474 23

172 167 -6

152 142 -10

25 24 0

18 25 7


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Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Outbound tourismInternational Tourist Arrivals

Average annual 5 growth rate (%) 43

6

5.4 4.80%

International tourist arrivals1995 2006*

3.8

4.1

10% 20% 30%

97 mn

163 mn

from same region

2

Tourism 2020 Vision forecast1 0

share (%)50% 431 mn

40%

Actual 1995-2006

Origin not specified669 mn


60% from same region from other regions

174 163 -11

70% 80% 90% 100%

from other regions


Where were we right? overall world forecast, both direction and volume (aag +4.1%) strong growth for emerging destinations and source markets strong growth for Asia and the Pacific and for Africa more moderate growth for Europe increase of share of Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, and decrease of Europe and the Americas emergence of China as a major inbound and outbound market demography: aging population, increased VFR, changing households change from service to experienceUNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

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Where have we missed ? underestimation of the potential of the Middle East overestimation of the growth of North America various country estimates overestimation of interregional growth underestimation of the impact of new technologies, in particular of the internet, in terms of: information, promotion and marketing distribution, sales, pricing, management and service more transparency and power to consumer

explosion of low cost airlines in Europe, Asia and the Middle East unexpected events not catered for border facilitation (+/-) socio-environmental awareness (+/-)


Tourism 2020 Vision: Conclusions strong resilience and capacity of recovery against adverse conditions (economic downturns, terrorism, health threats, natural disasters, etc.) strong underlying demand, with still huge potential for growth: from increase of participation and increased frequency: more both

often but shorter stays from current travellers but above all from new emerging middle classes sizable populations in developing countries currently still only take part in international tourism very limitedly many emerging economies show rapid economic growth resulting in increasing disposable incomes, a relative big share of this increase will UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section be spent on tourism (domestic as well as international)

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Worldwide Participation in Tourism International Arrivals generated per 100 populationper yearReal values 1950-200025

UNWTO Forecast Tourism 2020 Vision21

in 1950 less than one international trip per 100 population, versus 11.5 in 2000 tourism participation expected still almost to have doubled in 2020

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15 15 11.5 10 6.4 4.5 5 1.0 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2.3 8.7


Participation in Outbound TourismArrivals generated per 100 population per year90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 World Europe

1980 2000 2020

81

Real values 1980-2000, Forecast 2020 There is a considerable variation between regions: Europe has currently 46 trips per 100 population and South Asia only one The fastest growth will be recorded in EAP (in 2020 will have reached a level comparable with Europe in 1980s) and in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia (from a lower base)

46

23 21 6 11 20 10 7665 22 10,2 0,5 1,2Americas East Asia and Middle East the PacificUNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

1716 13

Africa

South Asia

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Long-term trends and forecasts UNWTO Tourism 2030: a road map foran updated long-term forecast


UNWTO Tourism 2030: a road map Elements:

Quantitative forecast for the world and by (sub)region Qualitative assessment for the world, by region and country Sectors, products and market segments Themes Principles: Extend scope: explore relationship tourism development and economic growth analyse trend by means of transport analyse trend by purpose of visit (leisure, business, VFR, etc.) analyse trend in the use of accommodation international vs. domestic tourismUNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

Introduce scenario approach

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UNWTO Tourism 2030: a road map World, (sub)regions and countries Quantitative forecast inbound tourism worldwide and by (sub)regions inbound tourism by region of origin outbound tourism by (sub)region of destination inbound tourism by means of transport inbound tourism by purpose of visit use of accommodation extrapolation of actual time series with use of econometric model contrast results with expert knowledge (Delphi) introduce margin, with forecast within an interval with lower and upper variant introduce variants based on differing conditions (scenarios)UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

How

UNWTO Tourism 2030: a road map Regions and countries Qualitative information stocktaking through country survey about: past evolution future prospects available master plans, development plans, investment plans, etc. forecasts developed by the country targets set active participation requested of NTAs and NTOs

opening of web resourceUNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

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UNWTO Tourism 2030: a road map Sectors, products and segments:Exploration of future trends with regard to: destinations transport accommodation & catering travel distribution, tour operators, travel agencies products: sun and beach, city trips, wellness, adventure, meetings industry, special interest, etc. segments: family, youth, single, senior, VFR, FIT, etc.UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

Themes: Authoritative contributions on various subjects relevant for future development, such as: sustainability Climate change Congestion management

UNWTO Tourism 2030: a road map

new technologies changing demographics (aging, family composition, immigration) developing countries and poverty alleviation human resources - decent work safety, security and emergency response competitiveness legal framework and facilitation marketing and promotion UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism ServicesSection

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Conclusion


Global Tourism Challenges In the short-term Finance Economy Energy Safety and security Health threats and natural disasters In the long-term - Environmental > Climate Change - Socioeconomic > Poverty Reduction


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More modest More solid More responsible

Long-term tourism growth pattern


Handbook on methodology

Commissioned by European Travel Commission World Tourism Organisation


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UNWTO Tourism 2020

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