Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Markus...

Universität Stuttgart

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIER

Markus Blesl

TIMES – EE27TIMES – EE27

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop 24. November 2004 in Florence


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIERTIMES – EE (European Electricity Generation)

• 27 region model (EU 25, N, CH)• Detailed power generation sector (CO2 sequestration and capture

options, CHP included) based on a IER power plant database with 25,000 units included

• Country specific differences for characterisation of new power plants

• Detailed electricity exchange balances based on ETSO statistics• Country specific load curves based on UTCE statistics• Consideration of CHP expansion options• Renewable potential (onshore wind, offshore wind, geothermal,

biomass, biogas, hydro (small, middle, large))• Country specific availability factors for renewable • Country specific heat and electricity demand reduction options • GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O included• Pollutants: NOX, SOX, particles• Time horizon 1990-2030, 5 year periods, 12 time segments per year


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIERModel of the European Electricity market (incl. CHP) – TIMES-EE


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIERAssumptions

• Taxes included in fuel prices

• Different country specific classes of prices for biomass (including different types of wood, plant wood, energy crops) and biogas depending

• Country specific assumptions about the maximum / minimum of extraction capacities and use of lignite

• New nuclear is possible in France, Czech Republic (after 2015), Finland, UK (on a max. constant level), Poland and Swiss


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIEREnergy price assumption on power plant level (Euro pro GJ)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

En

erg

y p

rice

on

po

wer

pla

nt

leve

l in

[E

uro

/GJ]

Lignite Coal Oil Gas


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIEREnergy price differences on power plant level compared with Germany (tax included) in Euro/GJ

Light Fuel Oil

Heavy Fuel Oil Natural Gas Steam Coal

France -0,26 0,00 0,00 -0,23Austria 0,07 -0,19 0,18 0,00Belgium / Lux -0,97 0,16

-1,30

0,03Switzerland -2,68 0,00 0,00 0,00Czech Republic -0,79 -1,43 -0,18 -0,93Denmark -1,03 0,00 0,00 0,00Sweden -2,55 0,00 0,00 0,00Poland -1,16 -1,30 0,00 -0,29

Netherlands 1,40 1,80 -0,74 0,00Finland 1,56 2,32 -0,56 -0,17Greece 3,41 1,33Ireland -0,05 1,22 -0,93 -0,45Italy 3,48 0,19 -0,51 0,11Luxembourg 0,64Portugal 1,39 -0,40Spain 6,05 3,64 0,34UK 0,46 1,54 -1,15 -0,03

0,34

-1,30

-0,51


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIERPolicy – CO2 target “Soft landing” or “Flexible Mechanism”

Electricity and heat generation Reduction targets against 1990

CO2-Emissionen Mio. t/a Kyoto1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Austria AT 12.136 -0.13 -14.7% -16.5% -18.2% -20.0% Belgium BE 22.477 -0.08 -9.3% -11.2% -13.1% -14.9% Denmark DK 23.844 -0.21 -22.6% -24.2% -25.7% -27.3% Finland FI 23.761 0.00 -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% France FR 42.325 0.00 -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Germany DE 378.101 -0.21 -22.6% -24.2% -25.7% -27.3% Greece GR 35.629 0.25 22.5% 20.0% 17.5% 15.0% Ireland IR 10.363 0.13 10.7% 8.5% 6.2% 4.0% Italy IT 129.951 -0.07 -8.4% -10.2% -12.1% -14.0% Luxemburg LX 0.108 -0.28 -29.4% -30.9% -32.3% -33.8% Netherland NL 45.810 -0.06 -7.9% -9.8% -11.6% -13.5% Portugal PO 16.448 0.27 24.5% 21.9% 19.4% 16.8% Spain SP 66.626 0.15 12.7% 10.4% 8.1% 5.8% Sweden SW 9.218 0.04 1.9% -0.2% -2.2% -4.3% UK UK 219.282 -0.13 -14.3% -16.0% -17.8% -19.5% EU-15 1036.079 -0.10 -11.6% -13.4% -15.2% -17.0% Czech CZ 56.036 -0.08 -10.7% -11.7% -13.5% -15.4% Slowakei SK 14.820 -0.08 -10.7% -11.7% -13.5% -15.4% Poland PL 187.407 -0.06 -7.9% -9.8% -11.6% -13.5% Ungarn H 17.250 -0.08 -10.7% -11.7% -13.5% -15.4% Slowenien SL 2.460 -0.05 -10.7% -11.7% -13.5% -15.4% Estland EST 6.970 -0.08 -10.7% -11.7% -13.5% -15.4% Lettland LT 9.100 -0.08 -10.7% -11.7% -13.5% -15.4% Litauen LV 5.210 -0.08 -10.7% -11.7% -13.5% -15.4% Malta/Zypris MC 7.000 -0.08 -10.7% -11.7% -13.5% -15.4% EU-25 1335.331 -0.09 -11.0% -12.7% -14.5% -16.4%Switzerland NO 0.915 0.01 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% Norway CH 1.044 -0.08 -10.7% -11.7% -13.5% -15.4% EU27 1337.289 -0.09 -11.0% -12.7% -14.5% -16.4%

Soft Landing



Scenario definition

• Reference case (REF)

• CO2 - Emission target “Soft landing” for EU15 and national targets (SOFT)

• CO2 - Emission target “Soft landing” for EU27 (FLEX)


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIERNet electricity generation by energy carriers in EU25

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1990 1995 2000 REF SOFT FLEX REF SOFT FLEX REF SOFT FLEX

Statistic 2010 2020 2030

Net

ele

ctr

icit

y g

en

era

tio

n in

[T

Wh

]

PV Hard coal Lignite Oil Natural gas Nuclear Geothermal Hydrogen Hydro Wind Others


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIERNet electricity generation by different renewable sources in EU25

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


Statistic 2010 2020 2030

Net

ele

ctr

icit

y g

en

era

tio

n in

[T

Wh

]

PV Geothermal Hydrogen Hydro Wind Others


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIERNet electricity generation based on renewable in Europe

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000


Statistic 2010 2020 2030

Net

ele

ctri

cty

gen

erat

ion

by

ren

ewab

le [

TW

h]

Slovenia

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

Hungary

Slovakia

Norwegen

Schweiz

Poland

Czech

Sweden

Ireland

Greece

France

Finland

Denmark

Austria

Portugal

UK

Spain

Netherland

Belgium

Italy

Germany


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIERNet electricity generation based on hard coal in Europe

0

200

400

600

800

1000

120019

90

199

5

200

0

RE

F

SO

FT

FL

EX

RE

F

SO

FT

FL

EX

RE

F

SO

FT

FL

EX

Statistic 2010 2020 2030

Net

ele

ctr

icit

y g

ener

atio

n b

ased

on

co

al in

[T

Wh

] Slovenia

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

Slovakia

Norway

Switzerland

Poland

Czech

Sweden

Ireland

Greece

France

Finland

Denmark

Austria

Portugal

UK

Spain

Netherland

Belgium

Italy

Germany


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIERNet electricity generation based on gas in Europe

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


Statistic 2010 2020 2030

Net

ele

ctr

icty

gen

erat

ion

by

nat

ura

l gas

in

[T

Wh

]

Slovenia

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

Hungary

Slovakia

Norwegen

Schweiz

Poland

Czech

Sweden

Ireland

Greece

France

Finland

Denmark

Austria

Portugal

UK

Spain

Netherland

Belgium

Italy

Germany


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIERNet – electricity balance for the different countries

Import countries

Export countries

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

1990 1995 2000 REF SOFT FLEX REF SOFT FLEX

Statistic 2010 2020

Str

om

sald

o i

n [

TW

h]

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

Slovenia

Hungary

Slovakia

Norwegen

Schweiz

Poland

Czech

Schweden

Irland

Griechenland

Frankreich

Finnland

Dänemark

Österreich

Portugal

Großbritannien

Spanien

Niederlande

Belgien / Lux.

Italien

Deutschland


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIERCO2 Emission in the different scenarios in EU 15

790

890

990

1090

1190

1290

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030JahrC

O2 e

mis

sio

n e

lect

ric

ity

an

d h

eat

gen

erat

ion

in

[M

io.

t C

O2]

REF SOFT FLEX Target EU15


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIERDifferences between CO2 Emission „soft landing“ and national target (buyer/seller)

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

450

REF SOFT FLEX REF SOFT FLEX REF SOFT FLEX

2010 2020 2030Dif

fere

nz

zwis

chen

Red

ukt

ion

szie

l "S

oft

lan

din

g"

un

d C

O2-

Em

issi

on

en

in [

Mio

. t

CO

2]

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

Slovenia

Hungary

Slovakia

Norway

Switzerland

Poland

Czech

Sweden

Ireland

Greece

France

Finland

Denmark

Austria

Portugal

UK

Spain

Netherland

Belgium

Italy

Germany



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Ma

rgin

al a

ba

de

me

nt

co

st

in [

€/ t

CO

2]

SOFT FLEX

Marginal cost of CO2 reduction

Switch from coal to gas


Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle EnergieanwendungIERConclusions

• The differences between Kyoto – target and the emissions of the electricity and heat sector are not so big.

• If all European countries will include in the emission trading the certificate prices fall especially because of the hot air from Poland.

• With the Kyoto – target the renewable electricity generation target for the EU25 will not be automatically achieved.

• With a common electricity market, a free certificate market, a harmonised tax system the European emission reduction and the national renewable targets can be achieved in the most cost-effective manner leading to the lowest electricity prices.

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