Tupras December 2009

38
Investor Presentation December 2009

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Tupras December 2009 Investor Relations Presentation

Transcript of Tupras December 2009

Page 1: Tupras December 2009

Investor Presentation

December 2009

Page 2: Tupras December 2009

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Summary of Current Environment & Performance

• Local demand down in line with expectations

• Rural Diesel demand worst hit – highest correlation with GDP

Demand

• Optimisation in production

• Continued use of semi-products

• Opportunity Crudes

Crude Processed

• Lower Volumes

• Optimising Upgrade Units

• White Product Yield Increase

Production

• Focused on domestic market

• Decrease in Exports

Sales

• Benchmark margins:

• Oversupply & reduced demand,

• Poor Crude Differentials

• Big Tüpraş Margin premium

• better yields

• lower exports

Margins

• Increased Size of units

• Final negotiations with short listed constructors

• Financial packages under discussion

Coker Update

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Refinery Sector Outlook

Disposals

• Petroplus Antwerp, bought by Vitol

• Eni - Linovo, seekingbuyer

• Shell Europe, possibleEssar deal

• Grangemouth, Petrochina talks

• Tulsa, Sunoco & Sinclair

Mothballed

• Sunoco - Eagle Point

• Petroplus – Teeside

• Western Refining -Bloomfield

Closures

• Nippon plans 600.000 bpd closures

• Total Normandy, capacity reduction

• Valero - Delaware

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Crude Prices & Exchange Rate

43.6 43.146.5

50.3

57.5

68.664.6

72.8

67.5

72.8

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09

Crude Prices $ /bblDaily Monthly

1.60

1.661.71

1.601.56 1.55

1.521.49 1.49 1.47

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

Jan 09 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09

Turkish Lira / Dollar Daily Monthly

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Product Ratios

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Gasoline

2007

2008

2009

Margin weakness is fundamentally

driven by middle distillates.

Gasoline ratios have been weak but

above last year’s terrible lows.

Fuel oil prices have been strong.

Lack of heavy crudes means lower

production.

Has led to higher utilisation of

hydroskimming refineries.

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Diesel

2007

2008

2009

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Fuel Oil

2007 2008 2009

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Turkish Sector Outlook

Diesel

• Decline in demand from road transportation

• Dieselisation continues –ULSD demand is growing

Jet

• Global demandto be hit by reduction in discretionary flying

• Turkish Airlines passenger numbers up, jet sales at record levels

Gasoline

• Other factors more important than economy

• LPG substitution continues more slowly

Fuel Oil

• Trailing price of natural gas boosted sales in first quarter, but is depressing sales currently

Page 8: Tupras December 2009

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Turkish Consumption 000*M3 (January – September)

2008 2009

Gasoline 2,063 2,017 -2.23%

High Octane Gasoline 245 232 -5.12%

Total Gasoline 2,307 2,249 -2.54%

Rural Diesel 10,019 8,982 -10.35%

10 ppm Diesel 2,549 2,916 14.40%

Total Diesel 12,568 11,899 -5.33%

Home Heating Oil (Ton) 259 214 -17.42%

High Sulphur Fuel Oil (Ton) 1,761 1,357 -22.98%

Black Products 2,020 1,570 -22.27%

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Turkish Monthly Diesel Consumption

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mil

lio

ns M

3

2007 2008 2009

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

93 95 '00 '08 '15 2020

LPG Naphtha Gasoline

Jet Gas Oil / Diesel Fuel Oil

Asphalt Others

~3% Decline in total white product consumption expected in 2009

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Turkish Oil Products Demand Projection(Million Ton)

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Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net)

-2.5

0.8

-4.9

1.7

-2.5

1.3

-5.8

2.7

-2.7

2.3

-6.7

1.5

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel oil

2006 2007 2008

(Million Ton)

(Export)

(Import)

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Vehicle Parc Comparison (per 1000 People)

Passenger Cars, 2006

776

561 540508

245 237

8826

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Turkey By Vehicle Type

2007 2008

P. Cars 92 95

Motorcycles 28 31

LGV 27 29

Tractors 19 19

Truck 10 10

Minibus 5 5

Bus/Coach 3 3

Special

Purpose1 0

Total 184 192

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TÜPRAŞ Assets

Baku

Ceyhan

Black Sea

Marmara

Mersin

Ankara

İstanbul

Kırıkkale5.0 mt

NC: 6.32

Batman1,1 mt

NC:1.83

Kirkuk

Sh

ipp

ing

Ditaş

79.98% Share

165 kDWT Crude Tanker

10.5 kDWT, 2 New Product Tankers

Re

tail

ing

Opet

40% Share

1,339 Retail Sites

1,161 kM3 Storage

Trading, Lubricants & Bunkering activities

İzmit11.0 mt

NC: 7.78

İzmir

11.0 mt

NC: 7.66

Total Refining Capacity: 28.1 Million Tons

Current Nelson Complexity(NC): 7.25

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Opet

-14.6

47.6

13.317.6

51.4

28.5

43.1

70.4

51.8

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q

Financials*, mn TL

Net Profit Operating Profit Gross Profit

• Results

– EBITDA $191 Million

• Network

– Opet: 795, Sunpet: 544,

– Total 1,339

• Terminal Capacity

– 1,161,042m3.

11.5

13.5

14.9

16.517.3

12.8

14.615.2

16.1 16.3

8

10

12

14

16

18

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 - 9M

% Market Share Development

Gasoline

Diesel

* Tüpraş’s 40% share

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36.5

65.6

249.1

784

43.7

Koç Energy Group Storage Capacities

Aygaz Opet Tüpraş

Unmatched Logistics Strength

1,161,000 M3150,000 M3 5,100,000 M3 100% Coverage

of Turkey

16

(1000 M3)

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0.00.4 0.4

2006 2007 2008

0.50.9

1.7

2006 2007 2008

0.1 0.51.1

2006 2007 2008

2.1 2.1 2.1

2007 2008 2009P

Russia

Kazakhstan

Iran

S. Arabia

Italy

Libya

Domestic

Azerbaijan

4.5

0.1

2006 2007 2008

8.9 8.97.5

2006 2007 2008

3.5 3.3 3.4

2006 2007 2008

0.1 0.1

2006 2007 2008

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Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (million ton)

%30

%48

6.7

9.1

6.6

2006 2007 2008

0.1

2007 2008

UK

00.2

0.5

2006 2007 2008

IraqSyria

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3.79

1.56

6.37

1.87

5.38

3.75

6.72

1.59

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2006 3rd Q 2007 3rd Q 2008 3rd Q 2009 3rd Q

Tüpraş Net Margin Med Complex

• Lower blackproducts, optimised for highvalue products

Yields

• ASRFO, HVGO, Naphtha

Semi FinishedProducts

• Less Exports

Domestic Focus

Net Refining Margins

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Production Volumes

5.51

6.22

6.18

6.07

5.15

6.25

6.47

4.85

3.29

4.19

4.44

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

Quarterly Volumes (Million Tons)

2009 2008 2007

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24.1%

42.8%

7.3%

25.9%

Gasoline24.0%

Naphtha0.0%

Jet12.2%

1000 ppm Gas Oil14.6%

ULSD15.9%

Other3.3%

LPG4.0%

Fuel Oil13.4%

Asphalt12.5%

OtherWhite

BlackProducts

Gasoline18.5%

Naphtha2.8%

Jet12.6%

1000 ppm Gas Oil18.1%

ULSD10.4%

Other3.0%

LPG3.4%

Fuel Oil21.8%

Asphalt9.4%

21.3%

41.0%

6.4%

31.3%

9M Products Yields

Middle Distillate

LightDistillate

BlackProducts

White Product 73.2%Production : 11.9 mn ton

2008 2009

Other White

White Product 68.2 %Production : 17.9 mn ton

LightDistillate

MiddleDistillate

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Domestic Sales, Ton*000

9M 2008 9M 2009 Product 3Q 2008 3Q 2009

711 655 (56) LPG 243 244 2

427 83 (344) Naphtha 142 0 (142)

1,500 1,514 14 Gasoline 602 594 (8)

1,811 2,015 204 Jet Fuel 703 804 101

4,816 3,782 (1,035) Diesel 1,760 1,355 (405)

1,589 1,756 167 Diesel 50/10 ppm 629 688 59

8,216 7,553 (663) Middle Distillate 3,092 2,847 (245)

2,300 2,085 (215) Fuel Oil 711 480 (231)

1,678 1,474 (204) Asphalt 990 793 (197)

393 417 24 Other 107 183 76

15,224 13,780 (1,444) Total 5,885 5,141 (744)

Page 22: Tupras December 2009

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Full Year (Million Tons)

2.6

1.1

2.3

0.2

2.2

0.9

2.7

0.6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Gasoline Middle Dist.

Fuel Oil Other

2007

2008

9 Month (KTons)

1,863

720

2,073

152

1,452

151

802

150

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Gasoline Middle Dist.

Fuel Oil Other

2008

2009

Export Volumes

Page 23: Tupras December 2009

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9M Trading Activities

• Finished Products

– Gasoil imports up 20%

– LPG & Jet imported to make up shortfall

109

862

150

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

HVGO + LCGO

ASR F.Oil Naphtha+ Other

Intermediate Imports, Ton*000

2008 2009

39

1,857

301134

2,233

401

30

565

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

LPG Diesel LSFO F.Oil Jet

Product Imports, Ton*000

2008 2009

• Intermediates

– HVGO & ASRFO were imported to keep the hydrocrackers running full capacity.

– Naphtha imported to producegasoline

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Total Sales By Customers- 9 Months 2009

Petrol Retailers59.0%

LPG Dist.4.0%

Petkim0.5%

Export14.9%

Others9.1%

Asphalt9.1%

Military3.4%

Sales by Customer Group

POAŞ34.2%

Shell19.6%

OPET14.9%

BP10.5%

Others (45)

20.7%

Sales to Petrol Retailers

Total Sales : 16,2 million ton First 4 Distributors’ Share 79.2 %

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Investments

50

1,600

45292

544

350

176

303

2,656

1,950

628395

3,200

-200

400

1,000

1,600

2,200

2,800

3,400

1989-2005 2006-2007 2008 2006-2013

Million USD

Master Plan

New & Other

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Gasoline Improvement

Storage Capacity +1.1mn ton

Residium Upgrading

OEP & others

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Company Strategy

Co

mm

erc

ial • Increased

Product Trade

• >50% Increase in 9M 2009

• Sea and Rail Logistics

• 2 New Product Tankers

• Wagon loading / unloading

Inv

es

tme

nt • Euro V

Completed

• Terminal Capacity

• Reduce Black Product

Op

era

tio

nal • Energy

Efficiency

• Losses

• Integrity and Reliability

• Health , Safety and Environment

• 2007-2008 Saving $162 Million

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Coker Update

Prime Contractor will be

Tecnicas Reunidas

Has a wealth of experience in the

sector

Has worked on previous projects for

Tüpraş

Budget

Project expected to cost between

$1.8 - $2.0 Billion

Less than previously expected

Project is not turnkey

FinancingNegotiations

underwayCompletion

2010

ProcurementMajor

EquipmentStarts 2010

Construction

FollowingdetailedDesign

To start byend of 2010

Commissioning

Followingmechanicalcompletion

2013

Page 29: Tupras December 2009

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RUP Product Yields

Raw Materials

• Atm. Dip: 1,008

• Fuel Oil: 2,603

• Asphalt: 646

• Total Black: 4,237

• MTBE: 138

• Natural Gas: 464

Finished Products

• LPG: 203

• Gasoline: 772

• Diesel: 2,548

• Total White: 3,523

• Petrocoke: 807

• Sulphur: 127

• Total: 4,457

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Results

NPV > $1 Billion IRR 28% Payback < 4 Years

Revenue/EBITDA

Additional Revenue > $1.0 Billion Additional EBITDA > $500 Million

Costs

Raw Material & Semi products $465 Million Op. Costs: $52 Million

Investment $Million

Total Investment $2.0 Billion Financial Loans 65-75%

Assumptions

Interest Rate 6.0% Crude Oil $60

Financial Summary

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Financial Highlights (mn $)

769 712

1081 11161286

566

0

500

1000

1500

2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 20089M 2009

EBITDA

508 575

998

333

932

392

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 20089M 2009

Net Income

-421

259

-229

215 199

-617-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 20089M 2009

Net Debt/(Cash)

0.220.25

0.34

0.12

0.37

0.23

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 20089M 2009

Return on Average Equity

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Profitability Indicators , January-September

2008 2009Difference

Amount (%)

Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 111.02 57.15 -53.87 -48.5

Brent vs Tüpraş Crude Cost, ($/bbl) 5.30 1.91 -3.39 -64.0

Processed Crude API 32.24 32.29 0.05 0.2

White Product Yield, (%) 68.20 73.20 5.0 7.3

Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 5.57 2.15 -3.42 -61.4

Tüpraş Net Margin,($/bbl) 4.88 2.09 -2.79 -57%

Operating Profit, (mn. $) 1,189 474 -715 -60.1

EBITDA (mn. $) 1,286 566 -720 -56.0

*EBITDA (mn. $) CCS 1,105 484 -621 -56.2

**Opet Operating Profit -40% (mn. $) 86.29 62.44 -23.85 -27.6

**Opet EBITDA -40% (mn. $) 102.41 76.21 -26.2 -25.6

*CCS – Current Cost of Sales, ** 40% representing Tüpraş’s share

Page 34: Tupras December 2009

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Income Statement

9 M 9 M% Diff. Million USD

3Q 3Q%

Diff.2009 2008 2009 2008

9.438 20.122 -53 Net Sales 4.406 7.814 -44

760 1.549 -51 Gross Profit 317 508 -38

-318 -390 -18 Operating Expenses -129 -135 -4

32 30 7Income/Loss from other

operations17 11 58

474 1.189 -60 Operating Profit 204 384 -47

131 240 -45 Financial Income 63 90 -30

-114 -256 -55 Finance Expenses -34 -34 0

490 1.173 -58 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 232 440 -47

392 932 -58 Net Profit 184 347 -47

Page 35: Tupras December 2009

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FX Risk Exposure (30 September 2009 )

Million $

ConsolidatedAssets

ConsolidatedLiabilities

Financial Loans: 321

Short TermLoans: 274

Payables: 1,925

Stock : 1,343

Recievables:82

Cash: 968

-128

Sole Tüpraş -90 Million $

Page 36: Tupras December 2009

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Ratings & Corporate Governance

Fitch Rating Comparison

03 December

2009

FOREIGN

CURRENCY LOCAL CURRENCY

Long-term Long-term National

SOVEREIGN BB+ (Pos) BB+ (Stab) -

TÜPRAŞ BBB- (Stab) BBB-(Stab) AAA (tur) (Stab)

Petkim BB- (Stab) BB-(Stab) AA- (tur) (Stab)

P. Ofisi BB- (Stab) BB-(Stab) AA- (tur) (Pos)

Hürriyet B (Neg) B (Neg) AA- (tur) (Neg)

Çalık Holding B- (Neg) B-(Neg) BBB (tur) (Neg)

Vestel B (Stab) B (Stab) -

Turkcell BBB- (Stab) BBB-(Stab) -

Corporate Governance Rating

67.31

96.02

89.76

83.06

83.41

0% 50% 100%

Board

Stakeholders

Transparency

Shareholders

Overall

Rating by Saha Ratings

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Page 37: Tupras December 2009

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Thank you…

The Investor Relations section of our company website has a wealth of constantly

updated information of interest to investors.

www.tupras.com.tr

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Page 38: Tupras December 2009

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Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company

management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is

believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are

reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in

underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other

person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this

presentation.

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