TREMAINE AND DUNDAS SECONDARY PLANTREMAINE AND DUNDAS SECONDARY PLANLAND NEEDS ANALYSIS

Prepared for:

The Region of HaltonThe City of Burlington, and

The Town of Oakville

September 2009

HEMSONC o n s u l t i n g L t d.

30 St. Patrick Street, Suite 1000, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5T 3A3Facsimile (416) 595-7144 Telephone (416) 593-5090

e-mail: hemson@hemson.com

September 15, 2009

Mr. Stirling Todd, MES, MCIP, RPPSenior PlannerLegislative and Planning Services Department Halton Region 1151 Bronte RoadOntario, L6M 3L1

Dear Mr. Todd:

Re: Tremaine and Dundas Secondary Plan Land Needs Analysis

The following report presents the conclusions of our analysis ofland needs for the Tremaine and Dundas Area and, within thiscontext, the appropriateness of the residential developmentapplication as proposed by Evergreen Communities Inc. We havealso examined other options, including residential and mixed usedevelopment scenarios.

The conclusions are as follows. From a Regional planningperspective, the Tremaine and Dundas Area has long-beenconsidered part of the employment land supply. The Tremaine andDundas Area is required to accommodate Regional employmentgrowth and is suitable and marketable as employment land. Theseconclusions are consistent with analyses undertaken as part of theSustainable Halton process and through the 1990s as part of theHalton Urban Structure Plan.

For reasons set out in more detail in this report, anemployment land designation is still recommended for theTremaine and Dundas Area.

Yours Truly,

HEMSON Consulting Ltd.

Russell B. Mathew, PLE, RPPPartner

HEMSON

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

A. Purpose of the Study Is to Review Land Use Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3B. Provincial and Regional Planning Objectives Are a Key Consideration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4C. Report Is Organized into Three Chapters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

II FROM A REGIONAL PLANNING PERSPECTIVE, THE TREMAINE AND DUNDAS AREA SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN AN EMPLOYMENT LAND DESIGNATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

A. Area Has Long-been Considered Part of the Regional Employment Land Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7B. Lands Are Required to Accommodate Regional Employment Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9C. Tremaine and Dundas Area Is Suitable and Marketable as Employment Land . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

III AN EMPLOYMENT LAND DESIGNATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE TREMAINE AND DUNDAS AREA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

A. Demand for Employment Land in the GTAH Will Remain Strong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13B. Halton Is Well-suited to Accommodate Future Demand for Employment Land . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15C. There Is No Need to Permit Residential Uses in the Tremaine and Dundas Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

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I INTRODUCTION

Hemson Consulting Ltd. was retained in June 2008 as part ofthe team of technical experts to assist the Region of Halton,the City of Burlington and the Town of Oakville in thedevelopment of a secondary plan for the area bounded byTremaine Road, Dundas Street, Bronte Creek Valley andHighway 407 (the“Tremaine and Dundas Area”).

The Tremaine and Dundas Area is shown on the map on thefollowing page in the broader context of the Region ofHalton, which includes the communities of the Town ofOakville, the City of Burlington, the Towns of Milton andHalton Hills and the Provincial Greenbelt.

The purpose of the study is three-fold:

1. To provide input to the preparation of a general landuse concept as the basis for the preparation of asecondary plan for the study area;

2. To assist Regional and local staff in their considerationof a proposal by Evergreen Communities Inc. forresidential development. An application has been madeto accommodate approximately 3,100 people inapproximately 1,300 units in the area as well as a smallcomponent of commercial uses to meet neighbourhoodretail needs;

3. To assist Regional and local staff in their considerationof other land use options.

This report presents the findings of the land needscomponents of the study, specifically conclusions with respectto land needs for the Tremaine and Dundas Area and theappropriateness of the residential development application asproposed by Evergreen Communities Inc., as well as otherland use options, such as mixed residential and employmentdevelopment.

Our conclusions are based on work undertaken by HemsonConsulting Ltd. for the Region of Halton and the localmunicipalities in the past, including:

• The Halton Urban Structure Plan (HUSP) completedfor the Region of Halton in 1994;

• The Strategic Land Use Options Study (SLUOS)completed for the Town of Oakville in 2001;

• Work undertaken between 2002 and 2006 as part of theRegional official plan review, as implemented byRegional Official Plan Amendment (ROPA) 25; and

• The Region’s current growth management strategy andofficial plan review, Sustainable Halton.

LOCATION OF TREMAINE AND DUNDAS SECONDARY PLAN AREA

MunicipalMunicipalBoundary

ProvincialGreenbelt

Urban SystemT

rafa

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401

Tremaine &Dundas

Study AreaEmployment

Lands

Roads

Highways

Walk

ers

Lin

e

Guelp

h L

ine

lga

r Rd

407

Study Area

Highways

Tremaine &Dundas

Study Area

North Oakville

Win

sto

n C

hurc

hill B

lvd

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SecondaryPlan Area

Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd.Note: Map is conceptual and not to scale.

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A. PURPOSE OF THE STUDY IS TO REVIEW LAND USEOPTIONS

The purpose of the analysis is to review alternative land useoptions for the Tremaine and Dundas Area with respect toland needs; specifically, whether an employment versus aresidential or mixed designation is recommended forBurlington’s official plan.

The Tremaine and Dundas Area is identified in the City ofBurlington Official Plan as an area for which land usedesignations and policies will need to be determined throughfurther study.1 Accordingly, the Region of Halton, the Cityof Burlington and the Town of Oakville are undertaking anumber of background analyses for the Tremaine and DundasArea, including this land needs study. The Tremaine andDundas Area is located in the City of Burlington, but from aRegional land use planning perspective forms part of thelarger North Oakville–Burlington Area which was designatedfor urban use in Regional Official Plan Amendment 8(ROPA 8) in 1999 based on the Halton Urban StructurePlan (HUSP) prepared in 1994.

As had long been intended for this area, the Tremaine andDundas Area is at the western part of a larger employmentarea that has been identified as part of the SLUOS. Theplanned land uses in the Town of Oakville were subsequentlyimplemented through Official Plan Amendment (OPA) 198and the NOSP process.

Based on previous work undertaken by Hemson ConsultingLtd., it has been determined that the NOSP employmentlands — and by extension the Tremaine and Dundas Areafrom a Regional planning perspective — are suitable andmarketable for employment uses due to a combination oflocational advantage, anticipated strong long-term demandin Halton and a diminishing employment land supply incompeting communities.

The land use options for the Tremaine and Dundas Area areconsidered within the context of previous analyses that haveconcluded that the area should be included within anemployment land designation and the need for employmentland to achieve Regional and local planning objectives.2 Tothis end, Provincial and Regional planning objectives are akey consideration, in particular the Provincial Growth Planfor the Greater Golden Horseshoe (the Growth Plan).

1 Section 8.0 of the City of Burlington Official Planidentifies the Tremaine and Dundas Area as lands for which the finalland use designations and policies will need to be determined andrequires that an inter-municipal approach be taken to the studyprocess.

2 For detail, see the Employment Land Market Assessmentreports for the areas east and west of Sixteen Mile Creek, preparedfor the Town of Oakville by Hemson Consulting Ltd. in February2004.

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B. PROVINCIAL AND REGIONAL PLANNINGOBJECTIVES ARE A KEY CONSIDERATION

One of the major objectives of the Growth Plan, as well as theRegion of Halton Official Plan , is to promote economicdevelopment, economic vitality and employment growth.Providing and maintaining an appropriate supply ofemployment land is considered to be very important forachieving these planning objectives. For most communities,providing an appropriate supply of employment land is thekey tool for achieving economic objectives.

1. New Provincial Policies Recognize the Importance ofEmployment Land

The Province of Ontario has recently undertaken a numberof planning policy and growth management initiatives thataffect employment land planning for communities in theGTAH, including the Region of Halton, the Town ofOakville and the City of Burlington. The Growth Plan is oneof these initiatives, and provides a set of population andemployment targets to 2031 that must be used as a basis forlong-range planning as well as direction on how that growthshould be accommodated.

In general, the Growth Plan seeks to achieve a number of“good planning” objectives, including: a compact urban form,the development of “complete communities” and a greaterreliance on redevelopment and intensification toaccommodate new growth as opposed to greenfielddevelopment.

As part of achieving these objectives, the Growth Plan alsoseeks to promote economic vitality and discourage theconversion of employment land to non-employment uses.The Growth Plan places a strong emphasis on economicdevelopment and directs municipalities to plan foremployment growth through the provision of an adequatesupply of employment land.

The employment land planning directions in the Growth Planare reinforced by the Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) andthe Bill 51 Planning Act amendments that also place anemphasis on employment uses by, among other matters,strengthening a municipality’s ability to refuse applications toconvert employment land to other, non-employment uses.

2. Economic Growth and Prosperity Is a Key RegionalPlanning Objective

One of the key strategic policy directions of the Region ofHalton is to maintain and enhance the community’s compet-itive position for economic development, a key element ofwhich is planning for employment land. This direction isreflected in both the Region’s strategic plan and economicdevelopment strategy:

• One of the key themes of the 2007–2010 Halton RegionStrategic Plan is to promote and strengthen economicdevelopment, in part, by implementing the Region’seconomic development strategy.

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• The Region’s Comprehensive Economic DevelopmentStrategy identifies planning for economic growth andprosperity as a key objective, with a focus on ensuringthat the Region’s employment lands and infrastructureare planned and delivered to attract and retainbusinesses.

In order to implement these objectives, the Region isundertaking Sustainable Halton, a growth management processto update the Halton Region Official Plan (2006) and meet thepopulation and employment targets in the Growth Plan. Theneed for employment land to accommodate future growth inemployment is, among others, a key Regional planning issuethat is being addressed. Local municipalities are also workingto update their official plans in the context of Regional andProvincial policy directions that recognize the importance ofemployment land.

3. Land Use Option Is Considered From the Perspective ofAchieving These Goals

For the purposes of this study, the land use options for theTremaine and Dundas Area are considered within thecontext of achieving Provincial policies and the Region ofHalton’s interest in promoting economic vitality, andproviding and protecting an adequate supply of employmentland.

As described in the background analyses to SustainableHalton, the Region of Halton has performed well in theGTAH employment market over the past decades. One ofthe reasons for this success has been a competitive supply ofemployment land, particularly in the communities ofOakville and Burlington and more recently in the Towns ofMilton and Halton Hills.

Similarly, planning to maintain an appropriate supply ofemployment land to accommodate future economic growthwill play a key role in ensuring that the Region remains anattractive location for new investment over the planningperiod. As a result, the analysis of land need presented in thisreport is undertaken from a land use planning perspective,which differs from a “market” perspective, or the perspectivelikely to be taken by a private landowner:

• From the perspective of the landowner, the preferredland use designation for any given site is typically theone for which there is the strongest market demand andthat maximizes potential return on investment. In mostcases this is residential or retail-commercialdevelopment.

• From a land use planning perspective, however, thedesired land use designation is the one that balances arange of community development and land use planningobjectives across the municipality, of which marketdemand is only one consideration.

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• Given that there is market demand for all types of landuses, and that the Growth Plan, the Region of Haltonand the local municipalities are all seeking to achievespecific economic and employment land objectives, theissue of land use designation in the Tremaine andDundas Area is considered from a land use planningperspective.

C. REPORT IS ORGANIZED INTO THREE CHAPTERS

This report provides a review of previous work on the issue ofemployment land need in the Region of Halton and the Cityof Burlington and an assessment of the land use options forthe Tremaine and Dundas Area. Accordingly, the report isorganized into three main chapters:

• This introduction has provided an overview of thesecondary plan area, the study purpose and the policycontext within which conclusions on the issue of landuse designations are reached with respect to land needs.

• The second chapter discusses the history of planning forthe Tremaine and Dundas Area, and particularly how ithas been addressed from a Regional employment landplanning perspective.

• The third chapter provides an assessment of land useoptions for the Tremaine and Dundas area with respectto land needs and recommends secondary plan policydirections regarding the amount, form and location offuture development.

Our conclusions are provided in the context of evolvingRegional and City growth management directions,particularly Sustainable Halton, and its implications for localplanning and decision-making. Decisions that are made aboutemployment land in the City of Burlington will need to beconsistent with the Region’s vision for the future and theProvincial vision set out in the Growth Plan.

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II FROM A REGIONAL PLANNING PERSPECTIVE, THE TREMAINE AND DUNDAS AREA SHOULDBE INCLUDED IN AN EMPLOYMENT LAND DESIGNATION

This chapter reviews the planning history for the Tremaineand Dundas Area, and particularly how the area has beenaddressed through Regional planning for employment land.The Tremaine and Dundas Area has long been consideredpart of the Regional employment land supply. The area hastraditionally been considered to be well-suited and marketableas employment land and necessary to accommodate Regionalemployment growth over the planning period to 2031.

A. AREA HAS LONG BEEN CONSIDERED PART OF THEREGIONAL EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY

Although the Tremaine and Dundas Area is an area where thespecific land use designation has yet to be approved, theintention from a Regional planning perspective has alwaysbeen that the area would be employment land. Reflecting thisintention, the study area has also long been considered part ofthe Region’s employment land base.

1. The Tremaine and Dundas Area Was Considered forEmployment Development in the HUSP

The HUSP was prepared between 1991 and 1994 for thepurpose of providing new urban lands to accommodate long-term growth in the Region of Halton. At the time, the NorthOakville–Burlington Area was to be planned to accommodatea population of approximately 50,000 and approximately900 net ha of employment land.

Regional planning in Halton does not distinguish land useswithin urban areas in the Region — the Halton Region OfficialPlan (2006) designates lands as urban and the localmunicipalities determine the location of residential,employment or other designations. The Halton Region OfficialPlan (2006) does, however, direct local municipalities to haveregard for the strategic land use objectives of the HUSP, inparticular the “high quality, prestigious employment type usesalong Provincial Freeways”.1

Accordingly, throughout the Regional planning process, it wasalways understood that employment lands would primarily beaccommodated along Highway 407, which would include theTremaine and Dundas Area.

1 Halton Region Official Plan (2006) Part III: LandStewardship Policies, Section 76 (2).

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ROPA 8, as the implementing amendment of HUSP, also didnot identify specific land use designations, though it addressesthe premise of planning for employment land in the NorthOakville–Burlington area along major transportationinfrastructure, consistent with generally accepted land useplanning practice.

2. Employment Land in the Tremaine and Dundas AreaWas First Recommended in 2000

In June 2000, Hemson Consulting Ltd. prepared the StrategicLand Use Options Study (SLUOS) for the City of Burlingtonand Town of Oakville. The purpose of the SLUOS was torecommend a land use concept for the North Oakvilleexpansion area, recommended in the HUSP and implementedthrough ROPA 8.

The SLUOS recommended implementing from the HUSPapproximately 900 net ha of employment as part of the NorthOakville urban expansion area, including the Tremaine andDundas Area. Through more detailed secondary planning inOakville for the North Oakville–Burlington Area, the totalamount of employment land has been reduced from 900 netha to approximately 550 net ha.

Although the total amount of employment land that wasimplemented through more detailed secondary planning wasless than originally recommended, the Tremaine and DundasArea was still considered to be employment land in thetechnical analyses prepared for City of Burlington, the Townof Oakville and the Region of Halton.

3. Area Has Been Included as Employment Land inSubsequent Planning Analyses

In 2002, Halton Region undertook an analysis of the adequacyof the land supply as input to an official plan review. Thereview concluded that the supply of employment land wouldbe sufficient to 2021, based upon the market conditions thatwere in place at the time. The Tremaine and Dundas Areaswas included in the base employment land supply that wasused for the 2002 analysis.1

Since 2002, a number of other planning analyses have alsoincluded the area as employment land, such as: the City ofBurlington Employment Lands Review, which was prepared byMetropolitan Knowledge International in December 2002 andother updates for forecasting purposes prepared by HemsonConsulting Ltd.

The Tremaine and Dundas Area has also been considered tobe part of the Region’s employment land supply in evidenceprepared for Ontario Municipal Board hearings regarding:Bronte Creek Meadows; a number of applications to convertemployment land to non-employment uses; the proposedamendment to ROPA 25; and, most recently, the AltonNorth employment lands. Both experts at the Alton hearingconsidered the Tremaine and Dundas Area to be part of theCity’s employment land supply.

1 For detail, see Adequacy of Urban Land Supply in HaltonRegion to 2021, prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd. for the Regionof Halton in January 2002.

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4. Analysis For Sustainable Halton Also Considers the Areato Be Employment Land

The Region of Halton is currently engaged in SustainableHalton, a growth management process to update the HaltonRegion Official Plan (2006) and bring it into conformity withthe Growth Plan. Through the Sustainable Halton process, thepreferred long-term urban structure will be defined, includingthe amount and preferred location of new urban landdesignations:

• Phase 1 of the Sustainable Halton exercise providedpreliminary estimates of the amount of land required toaccommodate the population and employment growthallocations in the Growth Plan.

• Phase II of the Sustainable Halton exercise is in progressand is intended to finalize the estimate of urban landneed and define the preferred option for locating newurban areas and accommodating growth within existingareas, through a combination of intensification anddevelopment of existing designated greenfields.

The adequacy of the urban land supply was evaluated as partof Phase 1, including the adequacy of employment land toachieve the Growth Plan forecasts. The base employment landsupply used for the analysis included the Tremaine andDundas Area as part of the North Oakville–Burlington Areaemployment land designation, consistent with the approachtaken in previous planning studies and exercises.

From the Region’s perspective, the intention has been forsome time to include the Tremaine and Dundas Area withinan employment land designation. This is reflected in OfficialPlan Amendment 55 (under appeal) to the City of BurlingtonOfficial Plan, which shows the Tremaine and Dundas Area asemployment land as part of the City’s preferred urbanstructure, although the specific land use designation remainsto be determined. It is also clear from updated analysesundertaken as part of Sustainable Halton that the land area isrequired to accommodate Regional employment growth overthe planning period.

B. LANDS ARE REQUIRED TO ACCOMMODATEREGIONAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

As part of the background analysis undertaken as part ofSustainable Halton, the adequacy of the Region’s employmentland supply was assessed. The preliminary conclusion is thatthere is not a sufficient supply of employment land in theRegion of Halton to accommodate the employment growthallocated to the Region of Halton in the Growth Plan.

The majority of this land area will be occupied byindustrial-type buildings. Planned employment lands in theNorth Oakville–Burlington Area including the Tremaine andDundas Area are anticipated to play a major role inaccommodating future employment growth.

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The amount of employment land that is required in theRegion of Halton to accommodate growth is identified in theSustainable Halton Phase 3 Report 3.07, AccommodatingGrowth to 2031. With respect to the need for employmentland, this report concludes that:

• The Region of Halton is forecast to accommodate a totalemployment of 390,000 jobs by 2031, which is theforecast allocation shown in Schedule 3 to the GrowthPlan and those to which Halton must conform;

• To accommodate this forecast, the Region will requireapproximately 1,100 gross ha of new employment landbeyond the areas currently designated within the currentapproved urban boundary; and

• This employment land requirement takes into accountthe increasing proportion of development in the logisticsand distribution sector that is characterized by very lowemployment densities.

The employment land supply used for the Sustainable Haltonanalysis includes the Tremaine and Dundas Area. As a result,from a Regional perspective, at least all of the currentlydesignated supply of employment land supply needs to beretained, including the anticipated employment lands in theTremaine and Dundas Area. As contemplated in SustainableHalton and explained in previous studies, the area is suitableand marketable for this purpose.

C. TREMAINE AND DUNDAS AREA IS SUITABLE ANDMARKETABLE AS EMPLOYMENT LAND

Of the many factors that combine to produce competitiveemployment land, two of the most important are transportat-ion access and size. To be most competitive, employment landmust be well served by major road transportationinfrastructure, preferably 400-series highways. Employmentareas must also be large enough to provide a wide range of sitesizes, develop a sense of place and be appropriately bufferedfrom surrounding uses. The Tremaine and Dundas Area meetsboth of these requirements.

1. Employment Land Must Be Well-Served by 400-SeriesHighways

Transportation access is one of the most important of themany factors that contribute to the competitiveness ofemployment land. The better the transportation access, themore competitive a given piece of employment land will be,assuming that there are no significant environmental or otherconstraints to development.

Significant components of the Ontario economy are made upof sectors that depend upon good transportation access.Manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation andwarehousing activities make up a very large share of theGTAH economy, in particular the strongly performingcommunities within the GTA West, including southernHalton Region.

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2. Area Must Be Large Enough to Provide a Variety ofParcels Types and Sizes and a Sense of Place

In addition to good transportation access, adequate size is alsoimportant to the competitiveness of employment areas. Thedesignation of large contiguous blocks of land is important tothe success of employment areas for a number of reasons:

• From an economic development perspective, largecontiguous areas maximize opportunities to provide awide range of sites in terms of size, price, and ownershipoptions. This permits flexibility in a community’sresponse to changes in demand for different types ofemployment land developments;

• Large contiguous blocks of employment land also provideexcellent opportunities to develop the campus-styleenvironment that is popular amongst technology-intensive firms, particularly in locations with anattractive natural setting; and

• Large areas also offer opportunities to create a “sense ofplace” where it is clear that the long-term function of thearea is for employment use. This is distinct fromscattered employment sites, which can often be difficultto market. In addition, scattered sites are also moresusceptible to conversion.

3. Tremaine and Dundas Area Meets Both of TheseRequirements

For the Region of Halton and the local municipalities toprovide competitive employment land, it must be made up oflarge, contiguous areas with good transportation access andseparation from residential use:

• From a land use planning perspective, it is easier to avoidland use conflicts because large areas can be more easilybuffered from surrounding neighbourhoods and othersensitive land uses; and

• This is reflected in the approach taken in the NOSP,which was to plan for a large employment area separatedfrom residential use. Permitting residential use in theTremaine and Dundas Area undermines the NOSP bycreating the potential for land use conflicts. Other landuse options, such as mixed residential and employmentuses, may create similar conflicts.

Based upon these criteria, the Tremaine and Dundas Area isvery well-suited as employment land. Although the area maynot be immediately proximate to an existing interchange withHighway 407, in our view this does not mean that the areadoes not have good transportation access:

• The Tremaine and Dundas Area will have access toHighway 407 through the interchange at Bronte Roadand the arterial road network planned for the adjacentemployment land in North Oakville. Access via eitherBronte Road (Regional Road 25) or Appleby Line willalso allow relatively easy access to the Queen ElizabethWay (QEW);

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• Likewise, although the Tremaine and Dundas Area maybe small when considered from the perspective of onlythe City of Burlington in a market context, it is part ofa larger employment area in North Oakville, which isexpected to be highly marketable; and

• The location of the Tremaine and Dundas Area in closeproximity to Bronte Creek and other natural featuresprovides a further scenic advantage, particularly inattracting the types of companies seeking an attractivenatural setting for new facilities.

The combination of good accessibility, proximity to a largeremployment area and the presence of attractive naturalfeatures are major advantages. As a result, the Tremaine andDundas Area can be expected to attract a range ofemployment uses as a result of the anticipated high level ofdemand for the North Oakville and the likely appeal of thearea for development.1

As noted in that report, other factors may further improve thearea’s appeal as employment land, including:

• The nearby presence of other major employment landusers, including the Zenon Environmental Facility,which may generate demand for additional andcomplementary businesses; and

• The possibility for development of CN Rail’s proposed350 ha rail-based employment area by CN Rail insouthern rural Milton, which may generate demand forlogistics and warehousing.2

The Tremaine and Dundas Area has long been included aspart of the employment land base for the purposes of Regionalemployment land planning. Similarly, the City of Burlingtonhas also included the area in its planning for employmentland. Updated analyses for Sustainable Halton confirm that thelands are required to accommodate Regional employmentgrowth over the planning period to 2031 and are suitable andmarketable for this purpose.

1 For detail, see the Employment Land Market Assessment,West of Sixteen Mile Creek Secondary Plan Study, HemsonConsulting Ltd., February 2004.

2 This area in southern Milton was originally proposed byCN for a major inter-modal facility and a significant land holding wasacquired for this purpose. CN is now proposing not to build the inter-modal facility in the near term but does want to develop a major rail-based employment area. The lands are not within the urban area andhave no approval status, but are being recommended for developmentthrough the Sustainable Halton process.

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III AN EMPLOYMENT LAND DESIGNATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE TREMAINE ANDDUNDAS AREA

Based on the planning history for the Tremaine and DundasArea and its locational advantages, in our view the areashould be included in an employment land designation.Neither the Landowner’s vision for residential development,nor other scenarios including mixed use residential andemployment, lead us to change our opinion. Halton needsemployment land to achieve Regional and Provincialeconomic and employment objectives and the Tremaine andDundas Area is well-suited for this purpose.

Demand for employment land in the GTAH is anticipated toremain strong, driven by continued growth in employmentover the planning period to 2031. The Region of Halton iswell-suited to accommodate demand for employment land asa result of its location in the strongly performing GTA-Westmarket. There is no need to permit residential uses in theTremaine and Dundas Area and the area is not particularlywell-suited for such purposes.

For these reasons, and the others set out in this report, anemployment land designation is recommended for theTremaine and Dundas Area.

A. DEMAND FOR EMPLOYMENT LAND IN THE GTAHWILL REMAIN STRONG

As discussed in many of our previous reports, demand foremployment land in the GTAH is anticipated to remainstrong. Neither the evolution of manufacturing nor the “neweconomy” appears to be significantly reducing the need foremployment land. Communities still need to providetraditional employment areas, including the Region of Haltonand City of Burlington.

1. Employment Is Forecast to Grow Steadily

The Growth Plan anticipates that 1.8 million jobs will beadded to the GGH between 2001 and 2031, the majority ofwhich — 1.4 million jobs — will be in the GTAH. Theprincipal assumption underlying the employment forecast isthat employment growth will continue in Canada, Ontarioand the GGH. Notwithstanding the current economicslowdown, the fundamentals are in place for continued, long-term growth in employment. The Growth Plan forecastsincorporate the cyclical nature of the economy.

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2. Employment Land Will Play a Major Role inAccommodating Future Growth

The employment outlook in the Growth Plan continues to befor strong performance in the GTAH and the broader GGHto 2031. The strong employment outlook is based on thecontinued attractiveness of the southern Ontario economy fornew investment and a strategic location relative to markets inthe United States.

Over the most recent census period 2001 to 2006, there is noquestion that some changes have occurred in the structure ofemployment, particularly with respect to restructuring in themanufacturing sector — for the first time in decades,manufacturing is not the largest sector of employment. Thisshift is the result of many factors, including changes in thenature of work, increased productivity and other changescommonly attributed to the rise of the “new economy”, or“service economy”, or “creative economy”.

This does not necessarily mean, however, that demand foremployment land is declining. Over the long term,manufacturing output has consistently grown at a faster ratethan manufacturing employment, suggesting that the sector isbecoming more efficient as a result of labour-savingtechnological advances. In our view, it is not appropriate toconclude that the need for employment land is declining fromthe observation that manufacturing employment is declining,or growing at a less rapid rate than overall employment:

• The GTAH is still an industrial-based economy, withsignificant components of the economic baseaccommodated on employment land;

• When measured by output, it appears as if the GTAHeconomy has become more oriented towardsmanufacturing, contrary to the more common argumentabout the decline of manufacturing; and

• If anything, demand for employment land in the “neweconomy” is likely to increase, given the convergence ofthe diverse range of industrial activities that make up theeconomy and the emergence of larger, more efficientindustrial facilities.1

Employment land plays a major role in the competitiveness ofthe GTAH and the broader GGH, and needs to be properlyplanned to accommodate the employment outlook in theGrowth Plan. Neither the new economy nor the evolution ofmanufacturing appear to be significantly reducing the overallneed for employment land. In the GTAH, goods productionand distribution remain part of a complex arrangement ofeconomic activity that continues to be housed primarily insingle-storey, industrial-type buildings.

1 For details see, City of Brampton Employment LandStrategy Discussion Paper prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd. forthe City of Brampton in November 2008.

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3. It Is Very Difficult to Change This Pattern Through LandUse Planning Policy

Many planners and policy-makers have suggested that thecurrent pattern of low-density employment land developmentshould be changed by increasing density or encouraging theintensification of existing areas, including the re-purposing ofthe standing building stock. As we have argued in otherreports, both are exceptionally difficult objectives to achievethrough land use planning.

Planning policy can regulate land and buildings, but cannotcontrol the density of employment or the structure of theeconomy. Similarly, when municipalities face constraints totheir employment land supplies, there is often the expectationthat employment intensification will enable higher densitiesand reduce overall employment land requirements. This is alsoan increasingly common argument advanced in support ofapplications to convert employment land to other, non-employment uses.

There is little evidence to support this argument. In the past,the potential for employment intensification has been limited.There is no established economic base for employmentintensification, and the experience of most other communitiesin the GTAH is that planning policy — if not in combinationwith significant public sector financial assistance — has aweak influence on employment land density or theemployment intensification.

The nature of the GTAH economic base is such that asignificant share of employment is accommodated in large,land-extensive, single-storey, industrial-type buildings onemployment land. This built form is related to the structure ofthe GTAH economy and is not anticipated to change rapidlyor significantly through the forecast period.

While the prospect of major office employment is highlydesirable for many communities, it is only a very small part ofthe employment market. Most of the market is large, land-extensive boxes on large sites. Traditional employment areasstill need to be provided in the appropriate locations,primarily places that can provide large parcels fordevelopment and have good highway access.

B. HALTON IS WELL-SUITED TO ACCOMMODATEFUTURE DEMAND FOR EMPLOYMENT LAND

Within the GTAH, communities in the western GTA havehistorically been the strongest performers in the employmentland market, particularly the Regions of Peel and Halton. Thisis due to a combination of a favourable positioning withrespect to the major trade corridors, a well-developedtransportation network, and a supply of competitiveemployment land.

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The value of industrial land has increased sharply in manyGTA-West locations, and communities located beyond theGTAH to the west are accommodating increased levels ofnew employment land development. Many communities areinvolved in putting additional employment land supplies inplace to take advantage of these economic opportunities andprotect key employment locations.

1. Employment Land Development Will Continue toFavour GTA-West locations

As discussed in our previous employment-related reports forthe Region of Halton, the Town of Milton, the Region ofPeel, the City of Mississauga and others, since the recession ofthe early 1990s, more than half of the total employment landabsorption in the GTAH has taken place in the GTA-Westmarket, particularly in the Regions of Peel and Halton. Overthe next period of growth to 2031, the pattern of employmentland absorption is anticipated to continue to favour westernlocations for a number of reasons:

• As the City of Mississauga nears build-out of its majorbusiness parks, the GTA-West market will see significantshifts, as Mississauga’s former market share is taken up byBrampton and the Region of Halton.

• The Town of Milton Derry Green Corporate BusinessPark and the Halton Hills Highway 401 frontage landsare both expected to perform very well because they are,from a market perspective, largely a western extension ofMississauga’s successful business parks along Highway401; and

• For similar reasons, the employment lands to be providedthrough the North Oakville expansion area, includingthe Tremaine and Dundas Area, are also anticipated toperform strongly within the GTA-West employmentmarket, given their superior access to Highway 407 andother transportation corridors.

The GTA-west remains very well-positioned to accommodateemployment land development because of its strategiclocation and transportation access. Because of the increasedreliance of economic activity in the GTA on trucktransportation and efficient production systems, the locationof new industrial development is increasingly dependent uponaccess to large development parcels and good transportationinfrastructure, particularly roads.

2. Ability to Provide Large Vacant Employment LandParcels Is a Major Advantage

As a result of continued demand for employment land in theGTA-West communities, the supply of available developmentopportunities is becoming increasingly constrained. The priceof industrial land has risen significantly, and demand is beingpushed to more distant locations such as Waterloo Region,Guelph, and the Brantford area.

As also discussed in the reports previously identified, the priceof industrial land in the GTAH has risen significantly overthe past two decades, particularly in the GTA-West. Themost rapid rise in land value is observed for communities insouthern Halton Region, and for employment land insouthern Peel Region around the Lester B. PearsonInternational Airport (LBPIA).

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The ability of GTA-West communities to provide large newemployment land development opportunities — including theRegion of Halton — is a major competitive advantage in thisemerging market, particularly with respect to users demandinggood transportation access. Rising industrial land values mayalso provide opportunities to accommodate more prestigiousand intensive forms of development, including flex-space andresearch and development. In some cases, there will also beopportunities to accommodate major office employment onemployment land.

3. Communities in the GTAH-West and Beyond ArePlanning for Employment Land

In response to market opportunities, and in order to achievethe employment allocations in the Provincial Growth Plan, anumber of central and GTA-west communities are engaged inplanning processes to implement current plans foremployment land or put new designations in place:

• Within the Region of York, the City of Vaughan iscurrently planning to designate two new employmentareas: particularly the Vaughan Enterprise Zone at theintersection of Highway 407 and the Highway 427extension, and a proposed new area in the Highway 400north area. Taken together, the planned newemployment areas in the City of Vaughan will bringnearly 800 ha of new employment land to market;

• The Town of Markham has also initiated an employmentlands strategy, which will identify the preferred amountand location of new employments lands; and

• The City of Hamilton is currently in the process ofplanning the Airport Employment Growth District,which is an approximately 1,000 ha new employmentarea adjacent to the Hamilton International Airport,focussed in the interchange of Highways 6 and 403;

Continued growth in employment, combined with the risingvalue and increasingly short supply of employment land incentral and GTA-West locations, will provide major marketopportunities for the Region of Halton. In order to take fulladvantage of these opportunities, the Region of Halton andthe City of Burlington will also need to provide an appropriatesupply of employment land to remain competitive, particularlylands in the North Oakville area, and other locationsincluding northeast Burlington.

From the background analysis to Sustainable Halton, it hasbeen determined that additional employment landdesignations will be required to achieve the employmentforecast allocations in the Growth Plan. The Tremaine andDundas Area has long been considered as part of the Regionalemployment land base, is well-suited for this purpose and isrequired to accommodate Regional employment growth overthe planning period to 2031.

From a planning perspective, the need for a residential landuse designation in the Tremaine and Dundas Area is notnearly as well-defined.

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C. THERE IS NO NEED TO PERMIT RESIDENTIAL USES INTHE TREMAINE AND DUNDAS AREA

While there may be a need for additional residential land toaccommodate growth in the Region of Halton to 2031, thesedesignations are being planned for other locations, consistentwith Provincial and Regional planning objectives for“complete communities” and transit-supportive development.The Region is currently working to implement theseobjectives through the Sustainable Halton process.

As part of Sustainable Halton , residential development isplanned to be accommodated in other locations, with theresult that there is no “need” — from a planningperspective— to permit residential uses in the Tremaine andDundas Area. The Tremaine and Dundas Area is also not aparticularly good location for residential development, forreasons set out in the following sections.

1. Residential Development Is Planned to BeAccommodated in Other Locations

As part of the Region’s long-term urban structure planning,residential development is directed to a number of areaswithin the community. In the near term, the vast majority ofthe greenfield residential unit supply is planned for NorthOakville and the Milton HUSP areas. Taken together, thesedesignated greenfields contain a potential supply that issufficient to accommodate growth until about 2021, withadditional Sustainable Halton lands for the period to 2031.

In addition to the greenfield supply, the Region and localmunicipalities are considering options to accommodate futuregrowth through intensification, consistent with Growth Planobjectives to focus development in transit-oriented nodes.Options for intensification and longer-term greenfieldresidential land supply are currently being examined throughthe Sustainable Halton process.

The Tremaine and Dundas Area is not currently beingconsidered as a residential option, consistent with PPS andGrowth Plan directions for employment land and achievingthe Region-wide targets for intensification and greenfielddensity. It is also worth repeating that Regional planning,through consultation with the local municipalities, isresponsible for determining the manner in which the targetswill be achieved.

2. The Tremaine and Dundas Area Is Not a ParticularlyGood Residential Location

In addition to the observation that current Regional growthmanagement initiatives are to direct residential growth andintensification to other locations within the community, froma land use planning perspective the Tremaine and DundasArea is not a particularly good location for residentialdevelopment. In particular:

• Approval of residential development in the Tremaineand Dundas Area would create a small residentialenclave that would be isolated and separated from othercommunities in Oakville and Burlington;

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• As a result of its isolation, an appropriate range ofcommunity services is not likely to be available. The lackof available services is recognized in the landowner’sproposal, which includes a small component ofcommercial uses to meet neighbourhood needs; and

• Other community services may also not be available ineither Burlington or Oakville, which would place anextra burden on both the transportation system andservice provision. In particular, insufficient schoolprovision might place an extra burden on transportationand the school boards.

3. Consideration of Alternative Scenarios

In addition to primarily residential use, we have consideredalternative development scenarios including a mix ofresidential and employment uses. In our view, the sameprinciples apply to both a mixed use or pure residentialscenario. The Tremaine and Dundas Area is required toaccommodate long-term regional employment growth andshould be retained in an employment land designation.

The lands are not required to accommodate residential ormixed use development, both of which are directed to othermore appropriate locations through the Sustainable Haltonprocess. Either a pure residential or mixed use scenario wouldstill result in a small, isolated community which in our viewis not a desirable land use option.

In conclusion, from a local and Regional planningperspective, the Tremaine and Dundas Area is not anappropriate location for residential or mixed use development.The area has long been considered part of the Regionalemployment land supply and is required to accommodatelong-term employment growth and achieve both the Regionaland Provincial vision for growth. From a planning perspective,there is no need to permit residential development in theTremaine and Dundas Area.

We trust that this report is of assistance to staff and Councilas they proceed with secondary planning for the area.