Transportation Sector Update
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Transportation Sector Update Source: The Economist 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year China US 25 million barrels p 2020 forecast QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture.
description
Transportation Sector Update. Source: The Economist. Population of Chinese Cars and Trucks Has Increased by More Than 12 Times in 25 Years. truck. car. 2005-01-354. The Growth in Chinese Vehicle Population Is Only at Its Beginning. 20000. ANL. US DOE. NAS High. 15000. NAS Low. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Transportation Sector Update
Transportation Sector Update
Source: The Economist
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Mill
ions
bar
rels
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day
China US
25 million barrels per day 2020 forecast
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2005-01-354
1978-2003 auto population in China
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Year
Aut
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货车客车truck
car
Population of Chinese Cars and Trucks Has Increased by More Than 12 Times in 25 Years
The Growth in Chinese Vehicle The Growth in Chinese Vehicle Population Is Only at Its BeginningPopulation Is Only at Its Beginning
501 523
598
764
428
136
64226
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India China Brazil Maxico U.K. France Japan Canada U.S.
Veh
icle
s/10
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Chinese Vehicle Population Could Chinese Vehicle Population Could Reach 100 Million by 2020Reach 100 Million by 2020
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Pre
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e nu
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icle
s (1
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sand
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US DOE
NAS High
NAS Low
Tsinghua
CATARC 1
CATARC 2
ANL
Both Passenger and Freight Traffic Volume Both Passenger and Freight Traffic Volume Will Increase DramaticallyWill Increase Dramatically
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Pas
seng
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Passenger turnover volume
Freight turnover volume
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China’s Crude Oil ImportsChina’s Crude Oil Imports
Middle East 45%
Europe and Western Hemisphere 14% Asia-Pacific 12%
Africa 29%
Source: Calculated from data in China OGP, February 1, 2005.
China’s Oil Use Is Catching Up China’s Oil Use Is Catching Up with That of U.S. Fastwith That of U.S. Fast
Source: Feng An, Consultant
CSEP Transportation Program StrategyCSEP Transportation Program Strategy
1.1. Fuel Economy StandardsFuel Economy Standards
2.2. Vehicle Emissions StandardsVehicle Emissions Standards
• Urban air pollutantsUrban air pollutants
3.3. Cleaner Conventional Fuels (e.g., Cleaner Conventional Fuels (e.g., low sulfur)low sulfur)
4.4. Alternative FuelsAlternative Fuels
5.5. Advanced Vehicle TechnologiesAdvanced Vehicle Technologies
• Hybrid Electric, Fuel Cell R&DHybrid Electric, Fuel Cell R&D
6.6. Bus Rapid Transit SystemsBus Rapid Transit Systems
Chinese Vehicle Fuel Consumption is Higher Chinese Vehicle Fuel Consumption is Higher Than Many Other CountriesThan Many Other Countries
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China average U.S. CAFE Japan sale-weightedaverage
Europe phase I Europe phase II
Fuel econom
y L
/100K
m
. 4.9%
24.7% 39.4%
48.4%
China Adopted Phase 1 and Phase 2 Fuel China Adopted Phase 1 and Phase 2 Fuel Consumption Standards in 2004Consumption Standards in 2004
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curb wei ght(kg)
l / 100km
china phase1
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japen 2010
2005-01-354
Chinese Fuel Economy Standards vs. Fuel Chinese Fuel Economy Standards vs. Fuel Economy of 2001 Model-Year U.S. Vehicle ModelsEconomy of 2001 Model-Year U.S. Vehicle Models
10. 0
15. 0
20. 0
25. 0
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1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000Curb wt (lb)
China_phase_1
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USA_Market
2005-01-354
Results: Fuel Economy Standards
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Results: Vehicle Tax PolicyResults: Vehicle Tax Policy
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
4.0 or more
2.50 to 3.99
2.00 to 2.49
1.50 to 1.99
1.00 to 1.49
Less than 1.0
Mar
ket S
hare
Engine Size (in L)
North America
China
Passenger Vehicle Market Share by Engine Size
Source: New York Times
The Top Three Most Polluted Cities in the The Top Three Most Polluted Cities in the World Are Chinese CitiesWorld Are Chinese Cities
EU India China
1995 EURO I － －
1996 EURO II － －
1999 EURO II － －
2000 EURO III － ERUO I
2001 EURO III EURO I ERUO I
2002 EURO III EURO I ERUO I
2003 EURO III EURO I ERUO I
2004 EURO III EURO I EURO II
2005 EURO IV EURO II EURO II
2006 EURO IV EURO II EURO II
2007 EURO IV EURO II EURO II
2008 EURO V EURO II EURO III
2009 EURO V EURO II EURO III
2010 EURO V EURO III EURO III
Strengthened Vehicle Emission Strengthened Vehicle Emission Standards Require Low-Sulfur FuelsStandards Require Low-Sulfur Fuels
1050
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EURO I EURO II EURO III EURO IV EURO V
Sul
fur
limit
in f
uel (
ppm
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.
Gasoline
Diesel
Sulfur Content in Chinese Gasoline and Diesel is Sulfur Content in Chinese Gasoline and Diesel is Much Higher than in the EU or U.S.Much Higher than in the EU or U.S.
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EU US China
Sul
fur
cont
ent (
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Gasoline Diesel
Coal to Liquid Fuels: An Opportunity or a Coal to Liquid Fuels: An Opportunity or a Carbon Risk?Carbon Risk?
• China’s coal: China’s coal: – reserves of 200 billion tonsreserves of 200 billion tons– coal resource of 600 billion tonscoal resource of 600 billion tons– ultimate coal resource of 1440 ultimate coal resource of 1440
billion tonsbillion tons
• Liquid fuels can be produced from coal viaLiquid fuels can be produced from coal via– Direct liquefaction to gasoline and diesel: requiring Direct liquefaction to gasoline and diesel: requiring
high-quality coalhigh-quality coal– Indirect liquefaction via gasification to: methanol, Indirect liquefaction via gasification to: methanol,
dimethyl ether, Fitscher-Tropsch diesel, and dimethyl ether, Fitscher-Tropsch diesel, and hydrogenhydrogen
Coal to Liquid Fuels: An Opportunity or a Coal to Liquid Fuels: An Opportunity or a Carbon Risk?Carbon Risk?
• Status of liquid fuel production from coal:Status of liquid fuel production from coal:– Methanol: current production of 5 million tons a yearMethanol: current production of 5 million tons a year– DME: current production 40,000 tons a yearDME: current production 40,000 tons a year– Direct liquefaction: a plant of 3.2 million tons of oil a year to be Direct liquefaction: a plant of 3.2 million tons of oil a year to be
completed in 2007; 10 million tons possible by 2010completed in 2007; 10 million tons possible by 2010– Indirect liquefaction: Several projects are under considerationIndirect liquefaction: Several projects are under consideration
• Both direct and indirect liquefaction have low conversion efficiencies, Both direct and indirect liquefaction have low conversion efficiencies, resulting in large amounts of carbon emissions during productionresulting in large amounts of carbon emissions during production– Direct liquefaction makes carbon capture economically infeasibleDirect liquefaction makes carbon capture economically infeasible– Indirect liquefaction makes carbon capture and sequestration Indirect liquefaction makes carbon capture and sequestration
feasiblefeasible• Captured carbon could be used for enhanced oil recovery in NW Captured carbon could be used for enhanced oil recovery in NW
ChinaChina• Policy is required for systematic carbon capture and Policy is required for systematic carbon capture and
sequestrationsequestration
Results: Bus Rapid TransitResults: Bus Rapid Transit
• Dedicated bus lanes
• Station-to-station
• Priority at intersections
• Hybrid-electric buses
• Lead cities: Beijing, Kunming, Xian, Shanghai, Chengdu
• 15 more cities in advanced planning
• New NGO — “China Sustainable Transportation Center”
Clean Energy SolutionsClean Energy Solutions
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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Business as Usual
Low-Carbon Path
Buildings Efficiency
Industrial Efficiency
Vehicle Efficiency
Renewables & Gas
Source: LBNL
Challenges AheadChallenges Ahead• Capacity building at provincial and local levelsCapacity building at provincial and local levels• Government budgetsGovernment budgets• Monitoring and enforcementMonitoring and enforcement• Elevate SEPA; vertical integrationElevate SEPA; vertical integration• Energy intensity targets as proxy for KyotoEnergy intensity targets as proxy for Kyoto• U.S. government engagement U.S. government engagement
in funding energy efficiency and in funding energy efficiency and renewable energy policy capacityrenewable energy policy capacity
• U.S. federal policy leadership; U.S. federal policy leadership; China (and the world) need U.S. China (and the world) need U.S. clean energy innovationclean energy innovation
T h e C h i n a S u s t a i n a b l e E n e r g y P r o g r a m中 国 可 持 续 能 源 项 目
Further Information:
www.efchina.org
www.ef.org
Michael Wang: [email protected]
Doug Ogden: [email protected]
Chinese NGO Trends• Increasing environmental NGO registrations• Challenge of “free association”• Groups focusing on:
– “Green” GDP– “Recycling Economy”– Water pollution; mercury– Public education re: dams (Nu River EIA)– Develop the West program (illegal logging)– “Car Free Days” in major cities– Green products consumer awareness– Etc.
