SEDS Transportation Sector Modules

Anant Vyas and Deena PatelArgonne National Laboratory

Presented at SEDS Peer ReviewWashington, DCMay 7-8, 2009

Transportation Sector in Context of SEDS

Macroeconomics

Biomass

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil

Biofuels

Electricity

Hydrogen

Liquid Fuels

Buildings

Heavy Transportation

Industry

Light Vehicles

Macroeconomics Converted EnergyPrimary Energy End-Use

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Major Transportation Components• Light Duty Vehicles

Cars*Light Trucks*

• Heavy Duty TransportationHighway (Trucks and Buses)*AviationPipelineRailWaterFarm & Off-highway* Only cars, light trucks, and medium & heavy trucks are evaluated through the Portfolio Decision Support

(PDS)

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Light Duty Data Flow

Macroeconomics

GDP, Population 16-84

Liquid Fuels

Light DutyVehicles

Hydrogen

Natural Gas Natural Gas Price

Hydrogen Price

Gasoline, Diesel and Ethanol Prices

Electricity Electricity Price

Liquid Fuels

MacroeconomicsVehicle Expenditures

Hydrogen Demand

Flex-fuel Demand

Electricity Demand

Gasoline & Diesel Demand

CO2 Produced

Bio-Fuels

Hydrogen

Natural Gas

Electricity

LPG/CNG Demand

Incoming Data Outgoing Data

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Major Assumptions for Light Duty Vehicles

• National estimates (no regional estimates)

• Annual vehicle miles and fuel use estimated

• Vehicle choice model adapted from EERE/OVT Multi-Path Study

• EPA dynamometer test fuel economy estimates degraded by a factor of 0.8 for ICE vehicles and 0.85 for HEV and FCV (can be revised to match the new 5-cycle method)

• Energy use by flexible-fuel vehicles estimated for the Liquid Fuels Module to separate as ethanol blended gasoline and E85

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Major Components of Light Duty SectorVehicle Technologies1.Conventional 2.Conventional Diesel3.Advanced Diesel 4.Flex-fuel 5.CNG/LPG 6.Electric 7.Charge-Sustaining (CS) HEV8.Flex-fuel CS HEV9.Diesel CS HEV10.Gasoline Plug-in HEV11.Flex-fuel PHEV12.Diesel PHEV13.Hydrogen Fuel Cell PHEV14.Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

Vehicle Choice: Based on a two-stage multi-nomial logit model

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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30Vehicle Age

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rviv

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ility

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ew

Cars

Lt Trucks

Vehicle Survival

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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30Vehicle Age

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iles

pe

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eh

icle

Cars

Lt Trucks

Age-Dependent Usage

ICE

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EV/HEV

FCV

Decision Flow In Light Duty Module

Future Car and Light

Truck Sales

Vehicle Characteristics by Technology

Vehicle Choice Model

MacroeconomicData

Fuel Price

Future Light Duty Vehicle

Sales

Car and Light Truck Sales Shares

by Technology

Future Car and Light

Truck Sales by

Technology

Historical Car and Light Truck Sales by

Technology

Vehicle Survival and Age

Dependent Usage

Car and Light Truck VMT, Fuel Use by

Fuel Type and CO2 Emissions

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Light Duty Data Sources

• Vehicle survival and annual usage functions from NHTSA/NCSA report Vehicle Survivability and Travel Mileage Schedules (2006)

• Vehicle price and MPG from AEO 2008 and PDS 2010

• Other Vehicle Characteristics adapted from DOE/EERE Multi-path Study

• Historical vehicle sales from AAMA and Ward’s Motor Vehicle Facts & Figures (various editions)

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Heavy Duty Transportation Data Flow

Macroeconomics

GDP, Population, Income

Liquid Fuels

Heavy DutyTransportation

Natural Gas Natural Gas Demand

Gasoline, Diesel and Crude Prices

Petroleum Products Demand

Liquid Fuels

MacroeconomicsTruck Sales

Electricity Demand

Gasoline, Diesel , Jet Fuel and

Residual Fuel Demand

CO2 Produced

Bio-Fuels

Natural Gas

Electricity

Natural Gas Demand

Incoming Data Outgoing Data

Coal Coal Demand

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Heavy Duty Transportation Modes and Fuels

Medium and Heavy Trucks*

Gasoline (ethanol blend), LPG/CNG,

and Diesel (bio-fuel blend)

Buses

Gasoline (ethanol blend), CNG, Diesel (bio-fuel blend), and

Electricity

Domestic, International, and General

Aviation

Jet Fuel (can be bio-fuel blend) and Aviation gasoline

PipelinesNatural Gas

and Electricity

RailDiesel and Electricity

WaterGasoline,

Diesel, and Residual Fuel

Farm & Off-Highway

Gasoline (ethanol blend) and Diesel (bio-

fuel blend)

* Only medium and heavy trucks are evaluated through the Portfolio Decision Support

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Major Assumptions for Heavy Transportation• National and annual estimates developed

• Medium and heavy trucks will continue to use gasoline and diesel fuel

• Medium and heavy truck VMT will be sensitive to fuel cost per mile

• Buses will rely increasingly on diesel fuel

• Aviation will continue to improve its energy intensity (Btu/RPM), but the rate of improvement will decline over time

• Rail will improve ton-miles hauled per diesel gallon at a rate slower than the historical

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Heavy Transportation Energy Use Estimation

Macroeconomic Data

Medium & Heavy Truck

Sales

Truck Survival and Age

Dependent Usage

Truck VMT and Fuel Use

Macroeconomic Data & Crude Cost

Domestic and International

RPM

Domestic and International

BTU/RPM

Domestic and International Jet

Fuel Demand

General Aviation Jet Fuel and Aviation Gasoline Demand

Medium & Heavy Trucks

Aviation

Coal Demand Rail Ton-MilesRail Diesel

DemandRail TMT per Diesel Gallon

Rail

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Heavy Duty Energy Demand Estimation

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Natural Gas Demand

Pipeline Natural Gas Demand

PipelinePetroleum

Products and Crude Demand

Pipeline Electricity Demand

Coal and Distillate Fuel

Demand Water Diesel and Residual Fuel Demand

Water

Crude Cost

Macroeconomic Data Farm & Off-

highway gasoline and

Diesel Demand

Farm & Off-highway

Crude Cost

Heavy Transportation Data Sources

• Truck sales from AAMA and Ward’s Motor Vehicle Facts & Figures

• Truck survival rates from ORNL’s Transportation Energy Data Book

• Truck age dependent annual usage from Census Bureau’s Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey

• Energy consumption by mode and fuel type from Oak Ridge National Lab’s Transportation Energy Data Book

• Aviation data from U.S. DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics and Federal Aviation Administration

• Rail ton-miles and fuel use from AAR’s Railroad Facts• Farm & off-highway diesel use from DOE/EIA

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SEDS (Deterministic) and AEO 08 Projections

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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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tu

Gasoline+Flexfuel--SEDS Diesel--SEDS Jet Fuel--SEDS

Total--SEDS Gasoline+E85--AEO Diesel--AEO

Jet Fuel--AEO Total--AEO

AEO 2008 projections end in 2030. Data are extrapolated to 2050 by applying average annual growth during 2025-2030.

Light Duty Energy DemandReference Scenario

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Light Duty Energy DemandHigh Oil Scenario – Change from Reference Scenario

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Light Duty VehiclesVMT and MPG

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Heavy Duty Energy DemandReference Scenario

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Heavy Duty Energy DemandHigh Oil Scenario – Change from Reference Scenario

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Future Work• Complete stochastic versions of both transportation

modulesIncorporate stochastic distributions of light vehicle prices

and fuel economiesIncorporate stochastic distribution of medium and heavy

truck fuel economiesIncorporate stochastic distributions of aviation and rail

energy intensities

• Investigate and update long-term VMT elasticity for light duty vehicles and medium & heavy trucks

• Make light truck share of new LDV sales sensitive to fuel price

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