1. 1Challenge the future 2. 2Challenge the future A first drive with fully automated vehicle 3. 3Challenge the future 4. 4Challenge the future Introduction Automated vehicles: many questions, few answers Will there be more or less congestion? Will we drive longer or shorter distances? Are we going to own or share cars?Will we need more or less road infrastructures? To what extent on-street and off-street parking spaces will be necessary? Will we travel safer? How cities will evolve? Will we need buses? Will we consume more or less energy to travel? When fully automated vehicles will hit the market? 5. 5Challenge the future What we will talk about today Levels of vehicle automation Conceptual model Literature Scenarios Future research 6. 6Challenge the future Levels of automation and cooperation 7. 8Challenge the future The ripple effect of automated driving Milakis, D., van Arem, B., van Wee, B. 2015 (work in progress). Implications of automated driving. Delft Infrastructures and Mobility Initiative. 8. 9Challenge the future The ripple effect of automated driving 1st ripple 2nd ripple 3rd ripple 9. 10Challenge the future What we know so far Capacity motorway ACC can either have a small negative or a small positive effect on capacity (~ -5% to +10%) Bottlenecks: increase 40%?) Positive effect shockwaves: 8% - 89%. Positive effect on safety, delays caused by incidents and travel time reliability. fixed bottleneck Incidents Shock waves 13. 14Challenge the future (Litman, 2014) What we know so far Development 2012 Technological development Barriers Lifetime of cars/fleet turnover Costs of the cars Services 14. 15Challenge the future Scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Nertherlands. Methodology Milakis, D., Snelder, M., van Arem, B., van Wee, B., Correia, G., 2015. Development of automated vehicles in the Netherlands: scenarios for 2030 and 2050. Delft, The Netherlands: Delft University of Technology, T&P 1502, ISSN: 2212-0491. 15. 16Challenge the future Key factors and drivers of the scenarios 16. 17Challenge the future Impact and uncertainty of scenarios drivers 17. 18Challenge the future Scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Nertherlands. Scenario matrix 18. 19Challenge the future Scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Nertherlands. Penetration rate 19. 20Challenge the future Scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Nertherlands. Value of time 20. 21Challenge the future Scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Nertherlands. Capacity 21. 22Challenge the future Scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Nertherlands. Vehicle Kilometres Traveled 22. 23Challenge the future Which scenario of AV development do you think is the most likely? fruits.to/#D46 23. 24Challenge the future Conclusions & future research Development of AV: Technologies, policies, and customers attitudes are the most influential and uncertain driving forces for the development of automated vehicles. Fully automated vehicles will likely be a reality between 2025 and 2045 and are expected to have significant implications for mobility and planning policies in the Netherlands. Implications of AV: Traffic (capacity, safety) simulation, analytical mathematics Mobility (VKT, mode choice, car sharing) focus groups, in-depth interviews, stated preference experiments, simulation Location choices and land use (accessibility, urban form) focus groups, in-depth interviews, stated preference experiments, simulation Systems behaviour scenario exercices, system dynamics 24. 25Challenge the future Questions? d.milakis@tudelft.nl m.snelder@tudelft.nl Maaike.snelder@tno.nl