Transport Planning Society Transport and Climate Change – facing the carbon emissions challenge...

Transport Planning Society

Transport and Climate Change – facing the carbon emissions challenge

David Quarmby CBE25 April 2007

Transport and Climate ChangeFacing the Carbon Emissions Challenge

Setting the Scene Transport and carbon emissions - the challenge Issues to address

Sectoral reduction targets Transport efficiency measures Transport behavioural change Government and public attitudes?

Conclusions so far

Setting the scene

A fast moving scenario UK Climate Change Programme – March 2006 HoC Environmental Audit Committee – July 2006 Stern Report – September 2006 and forthcoming

government response Mini-Budget put up APD but nothing else – Nov 06 Eddington backs full environmental pricing – Dec 06 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

First report Jan 07 – on temperature change Second report Mar 07 – on impacts

Climate Change Bill published – Mar 07 Budget increases fuel duty, steepens VED Transport Sec Douglas Alexander major speech – Mar 07

Setting the scene

The basic proposition about climate change IPCC2: huge impacts in developing world “Adaptation take precedence over CO2 reduction”? Stern:

could shrink global economies by 20%, losses of £3.5 trillion

If appropriate action now, could cost 1% of global GDP Kyoto – reduce greenhouse gas emissions by

12.5% below 1990 by 2012 (exc aviation & shipping)

Focus on CO2 emissions, 85% of greenhouse gas

Setting the scene

UK is committed to CO2 reduction of 20% below 1990 levels by 2010 60% reduction by 2050; Climate Change Bill

enshrines in law

Reduction from 161.5 MtC to 129 MtC by 2010 65 MtC by 2050

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

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2026

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2032

2035

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2050

Year

Em

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ion

s in

mill

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to

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of

ca

rbo

n (

MtC

)

Greenhouse gasesCarbon Dioxide (CO2) emissionsKyoto target by 2008-2012PSA CO2 targetRCEP CO2 target 2050

Eleanor McKay – TPS Bursary Presentation – 18 April 2007

Setting the scene

1990 reference level of 161.5 MtC By 2000, already down to 150 MtC – but Stuck there - by 2006, risen again to 153

MtC (highest since 1997)

The UK’s targets are very ambitious

Government has willed the ends, but said nothing about the means

UK performance can be profoundly affected by marginal change in one sector

Setting the scene

Why bother – UK less than 3% of global emissions Four reasons to bother and act

There is no silver bullet – every little helps Would have no moral authority to persuade others Global business opportunities for the UK in products

and services relating to carbon reduction, energy efficiency and emissions trading systems

UK: a low carbon economy increasingly competitive

But must stay closely in step with EU to guard UK competitive position




Conclusions so far

Transport and Carbon Emissions

UK transport carbon emissions rising from 1990 Road transport +10% to 2005 Aviation (domestic and UK international) doubled to

2004; UK international aviation excluded from table:

Year 1990 2000 2006 2015 2030

Transport CO2 emissions MtC

39 41 44 47 52

24% 27% 29% 31% 32% Transport %of all CO2 emissions

The forecasts are DfT; EU forecasts are higher for UK


Emissions from cars stable – improved fuel efficiency offset growth in car ownership and use

Emissions from road freight vehicles rising – growth in numbers, little fuel efficiency impacts

Emissions from aviation growing the fastest, international and domestic


Year 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

UK Aviation

CO2 emissions

5 MtC 9 MtC 11 MtC 15 MtC

17.5MtC*

18 MtC

21.5 MtC*

% all UK

CO2 ems2.8% 5.8% 7.3% 10.0% 12.0%

UK aviation = domestic + international departures Source DTI White Paper; *Tyndall Centre Effect of radiative forcing means climate change impact of

aviation CO2 emissions is at least doubled




Conclusions so far

Issues to address

How to allocate reductions between sectors – what trajectory?

What transport efficiency measures What transport behaviour change? how to

evaluate and prioritise? Government and public attitudes

Reductions between sectors

Counter-productive to allocate long term targets between sectors?

Analysing trade-offs, financial-economic-social costs with each measure and its reduction value

Cost minimising trajectory Assemble ‘best package’ of measures

Reductions between sectors

40% of CO2 emissions directly influenced by individuals on a day-to-day basis

Is the government doing any analysis of tradeoffs?

Issues to address




Transport - efficiencies

Reduction of emissions with no change in transport output

New cars 10% more fuel efficient 2004 vs 1997

EU had target of 120 g/km average for new cars by 2012

EU now legislated at 130 g/km Currently new cars averaging 161 g/km

(European) and 169 g/km (Asian)

Transport - efficiencies How to deliver

Much higher proportion of diesel cars Increased offer and take up of hybrid cars Reduction of average car size and weight

UK: company car tax scheme since 2002 successfully incentivised change

UK: graduated VED is ineffective Low Carbon Vehicle partnership King/Stern study

How, when to reach 100 g/km Decarbonise cars by 2025


Fastest rising source of surface transport carbon emissions is road freight and light vans

Light vans subject to same graduated VED HGV VED - no fuel efficiency or carbon

incentives beyond EURO IV and EURO V requirements

London LEZ will force fleet renewal or retrofitting

Hybrid engines offer leap in efficiency


Hybrid powertrain – primary source (petrol or diesel, in future fuel cell?) + energy capture, storage and release (electricity or

flywheel)

Productionised is petrol-electric (cars) and diesel-electric (buses and large goods vehicles)

Cars: Toyota Prius, Honda Civic, Lexus deliver 30-50% improvement in fuel efficiency and reduction in CO2 emissions

Hybrid powertrain

Engine Generator Battery |Motor-|transmission

>>>> >>>>>><<<<<<

=====

Series

Parallel

Engine Generator-Motor======== Transmission======

Battery

>>

>>

>> <

<<

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Transport - efficiencies Hybrid bus

Wright – series powertrain, adds 60% to cost of standard diesel bus; less when productionised

Volvo – parallel powertrain – ISAM (Integrated Starter, Alternator and Motor): working to 25-35% premium including batteries and control systems

Both claim ~ 35% reduction in fuel consumption and carbon emissions

Volvo also offering ISAM powertrain for trucks Hybrid only hope for big reductions in truck

emissions

Volvo ISAM Parallel hybrid

Transport - efficiencies Rail – CO2 emissions one-third of car per pass-km Rail rolling stock energy consumption has

increased in last 15 years Rail getting the message? Eurostar ‘Tread Lightly’ initiative Opportunities in railway practices

Transport - efficiencies Aviation

New aircraft today 70% more fuel efficient than 40 years ago, 20% better than 10 years ago

Further improvements of 20% by 2015 and 40-50% by 2050 Includes 10% due to ATM operational efficiencies

Typical shorthaul flight releases 170 g/km per passenger in carbon emissions comparable to larger cars – but greenhouse gas effect times 2+

Problem is emissions per hour, not per km Aviation ‘problem’ is also the rapid forecast growth

Issues to address




Transport – behaviour change

Efficiency improvements necessary and welcome, but major behaviour change essential to reach reduction targets

Modest reduction by voluntary action by individuals and firms

Wide range of measures to influence modes of travel, total amount of travel and the use of less carbon-emitting modes


Smarter travel Public transport improvements Urban form and land use changes ICT developments Fuel taxes Road pricing Aviation taxes Aviation in emission trading scheme


Smarter travel – soft measures to influence modal choice Workplace and school travel plans, travel demand

management, individualised marketing Car clubs and car sharing Making cycling easier and safer Necessary to complement harder measures such as

taxation


Public transport improvements Bus and rail improvements can influence modal

choice – services/network, marketing, ticketing, realtime information, attractiveness and acceptability

Investment and planning Difficult with deregulated bus regime in GB outside

London Bus and rail also need to improve their energy

efficiency


Urban form and land-use changes Achieving greater concentration and less car-

dependence in towns and cities Will have major impacts over longer period of time


ICT developments Already ‘working at home’ one or two days a week

significant for many employees, using broadband connections

Small businesses in ICT-related sectors increasingly based at home or very close to home

More video conferencing Limited long term effect – some face-to-face contact

will be necessary for many; loss of water-cooler community?


Road Fuel taxes Probably inevitable in the short medium term – easy

to administer. Known effects to deter travel Government still smarting from September 2000 fuel

tax ‘revolt’ Likely that only limited increases will be acceptable

in the short term


Road pricing Serious consideration by government and some local

authorities; recognise no long term alternative to combating traffic congestion

Technology interesting but not an issue – tag and beacon or GPS

My view – could have universal road pricing within 15 years – but current public acceptability issues?

Provides platform for incentivising use of lower emission vehicles, travel by lower emission modes, and in circumstances when vehicles emit less CO2


Aviation taxes Demand for air travel forecast to grow fastest, and

carbon emissions with it On grounds of fairness, substantial changes in the

tax regime inevitable 85% of air travel is ‘tourism’ – holidays, visiting

friends and relatives, and business ‘tourism’ – conferences, conventions and exhibitions

Evidence suggests high price elasticity – 10% increase in fares > 5-15% reduction in travel

Impacts depend on whether in step with EU or not


Aviation emissions trading EU-ETS – probably a necessary step to bring

aviation into some form of carbon emissions rationing and trading

Where are the starting allowances set? Demand for air travel comes from the consumer

market – market responds to price changes Effect will depend on tightness of allowances, the

trading price of carbon units and how it works through into fares

May not have much impact in short-medium term

VIBAT study

Two ‘images’ of the UK ‘new market economy’ – focus on

technological and efficiency changes ‘smart social policy’ – behaviour change plays

a more central role: some reduction in car trips but length reduced

Packages of policy measures to correspond with the scenarios

Evaluated for reduction impact and deliverability

VIBAT study

Conclusions The 60% reduction cannot be delivered in the

‘New Market Economy’ scenario Could be delivered with ‘Smart Social Policy’

scenario, providing major behaviour change occurs, and technological innovations assumed

Issues to address




Where is the government? 2000 UK CCP measures

Company car tax reform Graduated VED Fuel duty escalator (short lived!)

Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation > 5% of UK fuel sales by 2010

Where is the government? 2006 UK CCP

Improving vehicle fuel efficiency Support new vehicle technologies (LowCVP) Use vehicle taxation > lower carbon Behaviour change – public transport, travel demand

management

HoC EAC critical of its lack of ambition and its low forecasts of impacts

Where is the government? More radical measures under discussion, in

media and within government Douglas Alexander IPPR speech Focus on technical measures to improve vehicle

fuel efficiency – target of 100 g/km Something on behaviour change as well A hotch potch approach – no framework

illustrating progress towards targets Need to be able to evaluate alternative

measures

Public attitudes

Jillian Anable research (for DfT) Link is weak between awareness of climate

change and travel behaviour implications Similar to IPPR report on road pricing Travel behaviour change more successful if

targeted at community level

London Mayor to introduce higher congestion charge (£25?) for high emissions cars (225+)

LB Richmond similar:onstreet park permits

Reducing Carbon Emissions: changing travel behaviour

Personal carbon allowances and trading System of personal carbon allowances for every

adult – in units Carbon units are ‘spent’ every time fuel for a vehicle

is purchased, public transport is used and a flight is purchased - and a household energy bill is paid

Unused carbon units sold on a simple universal market (through bank or post office) and those needing more units buy them

Reducing Carbon Emissions: changing travel behaviour

Personal carbon allowances and trading Complex to comprehend and accept, though

straightforward to operate through analogues of today’s cash and card payment systems

In my view the fairest and most effective way to incentivise low carbon travel behaviour

Research at Leeds University suggests more effective at changing behaviour and much more acceptable than fuel tax increases




Conclusions so far

Conclusions so far UK committed to ambitious programme of

carbon emissions reduction Government not yet allocated targets > sectors Transport energy efficiency improvements

welcome and necessary, but not sufficient Transport behaviour change essential element:

smarter travel, taxation for surface and aviation, will involve major lifestyle changes

Aviation still the elephant in the room…. Personal carbon allowances and trading may be

the only ‘fair’ way to reach the ambitious targets Role for transport planners?

Transport Planning Society

Transport and Climate Change – facing the carbon emissions challenge

David Quarmby CBE25 April 2007

Issues to address




Transport Planning Society Transport and Climate Change – facing the carbon emissions challenge...

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