Training Caravan (Ikertzaileak gelan) Lasarte-Usurbil BHI and Beasain BHI, 28 April 2015

Ikertzaileak Gelan 2015

Training Caravan

Dr. Joseph SpadaroResearch Professor

Basque Centre for Climate Change, Bilbao

[email protected]

2

I am here to

� speak about SCIENCE and

� share my PERSONAL experience

Why am I here?

3

What is SCIENCE?

Study of the physical and natural world using modelling

techniques and data from experiments or observation

Science

A scientist is a person with advanced knowledge of one of more sciences

(physicist, chemist, biologist, mathematician, anthropologist, astronomer, ...)

4

Science is Knowledge

In school, science may sometimes seem like a collection of isolated and

static facts listed in a textbook, but that's only a small part of the story.

Just as importantly, science is also a process of discovery that allows us

to link isolated facts into coherent and comprehensive understandings

of the natural world.

Science

5

Science is Exciting

Science is a way of discovering what's in the universe and how things work

today, how they worked in the past, and how they are likely to work in the

future.

Scientists are motivated by the thrill of seeing or figuring out something

that no one has done before.

Science

6

Science is an Ongoing Process

Science is continually refining and expanding our knowledge of the universe,

and as it does, it leads to new questions for future investigation.

Science will never be "finished."

Science

7

Qualities of a Scientist?Science

Genius is one percent inspiration,

ninety-nine percent perspiration

Meaning: Genius is largely the result of hard work,

rather than an inspired flash of insight

8

How to Become a Scientist?

Learn basic science, plus explore other subjects (well-rounded) Mathematics, Physics, Chemistry,

Biology, Anthropology, Sociology, ….

Select a subject and specialize in a topic (supervised work)Study area and topic: Physics (fluid dynamics specialty)

University degree: BSc, MSc (thesis) or PhD (thesis)

Thesis: Select topic, identify problem, literature review, carry out work, write-up

the results and conclusions, oral defense (examination), disseminate information

Postdoctoral work (learn to become independent)Continue learning and begin your own original research

Science

9

Riddles

10

Riddles

11

You have three containers. One has only red marbles, one has

only blue marbles and the third has an equal number of red

and blue marbles.

The labels ('red-only', ‘blue-only', and 'mixed') on the

containers have intentionally been switched so that each

container is now marked incorrectly.

Your job is to relabel the containers correctly. Reach into any

one of the containers and select one marble. Can you now

correctly label all three containers? If not, select a second

marble from any container.

What is the fewest number of marbles you need to inspect in

order to correctly label each container?

Riddles

12

I am a Research Scientist in the field of

Environmental Sciences at BC3 (since 2011)

Research Professor

Who am I?

13

MISSION

BC3 is a Research Centre based in the Basque

Country (Bilbao), which aims at contributing to

long term research on the causes and

consequences of climate change in order to

foster the creation of knowledge in this

multidisciplinary science.

Who am I?

14

What are my Research Interests?

Energy, Buildings, Transport, Waste & Agriculture

Multi-Media Dispersion (air, water and soil)

Health Impact Modeling & Assessment

(incl. interests in epidemiology and economic costs)

Uncertainty Assessment

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

Life-cycle analysis

Climate Change

(incl. fundamental science, mitigation and adaptation)

Who am I?

15

What is my Motivation?

Scientific CURIOSITY

Contribute to scientifically-based research on sustainable

development, which recognizes the complementary of

environmental and social decisions on long-term economic growth.

EDUCATE the general public, business and political leaders in

making informed social decisions that affect present economic growth

and personal well-being, without compromising future generations.

Social awareness and environmental protection are the key drivers of

my work and why I have chosen an academic career in life.

Who am I?

16

What are My Responsibilities at BC3?

Contribute to research projects funded by the European Commission

and national/Int’l private funding organizations

(interact with other scientists from around the world )

Develop computer tools (UWM, RiskPoll for air pollution )

Teach university courses (interact with local/Int’l students )

Advise PhD students (apply knowledge and continue learning )

Author scientific reports and publish journal articles (reference )

Attend conferences (travel, meet people w/common interests)

Give seminars and specialized workshops in topics related to

environmental impact assessment (Argonne Nat’l Lab, US;

Nat’l University of Singapore, …. )

Participate in the Training Caravan!

Who am I?

17

My Journey to Becoming a Scientist

Doctor?

Business?

Athlete?

Ah, Scientist!

Primary/Secondary

schooling (8 years)

Learning the basics

St. Rosa of Lima (USA)

and Scuola Zirilli(Italy)

Liceo Scientifico, Italy (3 years)

Science (physics, math, …) and general

coursework (history, literature, …)

Who am I?

18


Researcher, Princeton Environment

Institute, University of Princeton (US)

Energy use in commercial/residential buildings,

thermal analysis of ice-pond cooling

R. Stockton University, USA (4 years)

BSc in Physics

- Science (physics, math, …) and general

coursework (history, art, music, education, …)

- Summer internships in Physics at Oak Ridge (TN)

and Argonne (IL) National Laboratories

Who am I?

19


Rutgers University, USA (3 years)

MSc in Engineering

- Science (physics, math, thermodynamics, …)

- Teaching assistant/instructor

Centre d’Energétique et Procédés,

Ecole des Mines de Paris, FR (4 years)

PhD in Energy, Environmental Impact

Assessment specialty

- Went on to work at the Ecole in the capacity of

research scientist for 5 years

- Worked at the Int’l Atomic Energy Agency in

Vienna, AT (lots of travel)

- Worked at the Laboratorio Energia e Ambiente di

Piacenza, IT

Who am I?

20

Transition to a

Low Carbon Economy

21

Sustainable Development & Environmental PolicyExcessive spending for environmental protection takes money away

from other worthy cause, e.g., education and public health

Sustainable

Development

Economic

analysis

Social

acceptance

Environmentprotection

Trade-offs involving high costs and uncertainties:

Pay extra for clean energy? Nuclear, gas or coal? Photovoltaics?

“Zero emission" vehicles? How large is benefit of reducing traffic in cities?

Hybrid, electric or fuel cell car? Particle filter for diesel?

Improved flue gas treatment (e.g. catalytic reduction of NOx)?

Close a factory with high pollution? Cancers or jobs?

Incineration or land fill? How much recycling of what?

Organic foods? Eat less red meat and more vegetables?….

Sustainability

22

Interacting aspects of decision-making Causal mapping

Decision-

making

VENTILATION

AND INDOOR AIR

POLLUTION

HOUSEHOLD

CROWDING

FUEL POVERTY

AND INDOOR

TEMPERATUREHOUSING

AFFORDABILITY

ENERGY

EFFICIENCY AND

CLIMATE CHANGE

COMMUNITY

CONNECTION AND

QUALITY OF

NEIGHBOURHOODS

LAND OWNERSHIP,VALUE AND

DEVELOPMENTPATTERNS

Source: Dr. M. Davies, UCL – Built Environment, London, UK

23

Linking air pollution

to human health

24

Impact Pathway: Emissions� damage costs (A multi-disciplinary approach)

Environmental loading

Engineering

Social Costs

Economist

Health, ecosystem, agricultural,

man-made environment impacts

Environmental

changes:

fate analysis

and exposure

Physics &

Chemistry

Dose Response

assessment

Epidemiology, ….

Air

Pollution

25

Air pollution-related deaths

Source: Based on data from Global Burden of Disease 2010 (http://www.healthdata.org/gbd)

Air

Pollution

26

PM pollution causes 2 million Years of Life Lost per year

Mean loss of life expectancy (LLE) is 4 monthsPopulation exposed to concentration above AQLV (25 μg/m3) is 4% (LLE ≈ 1 year)

Source: European Environment Agency (http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/)

� 80% − World population exposed to air concentrations in excess of 10 μg/m3 (WHO PM2.5 guideline)

� 65% − Share of total population exposure allocated to anthropogenic emissions

� 3.2 million premature deaths worldwide – Annual air pollution burden (Global Burden of Disease, 2010)

� 1.4 million deaths – Annual traffic-related fatalities (GBD 2010)

Air

Pollution

27

Bilbao – Benefit of Reducing Air Pollution

Bilbao

Concentrations: APHEIS Programme on Monitoring the Effects of Air Pollution on Health in Europe

Bilbao stats: life expectancy = 80.8 yr, population = 350,000, mortality = 3,050 deaths/yr

� Life Years Lost over a lifetime and annual deaths at current exposure

651E-6 YOLL/(yr.μg/m3) × 80.8 yr × (30 – 4) μg/m3 = 1.4 years (95% CI, 0.5 to 2.8)

60.7E-6 deaths/(yr.pers.μg/m3) × (30 – 4) μg/m3 × 350000 pers = 550 deaths/yr (95% CI, 190 to 1,170)

� Benefit for a 50% reduction in air pollution

651E-6 YOLL/(yr.pers.μg/m3) × 80.8 yr × (30 – 15) μg/m3 × 350000 pers = 276,000 years (0.8 yr /pers)

60.7E-6 deaths/(yr.pers.μg/m3) × (30 – 15) μg/m3 × 350000 pers = 320 deaths/yr

Air

Pollution

Source: Spadaro, J.V. 2012

28

Decarbonising

electricity generation

29

Aggregate health costs exceed 5% of China’s GDPCoal external cost is about 50% higher than Chinese Coal price

EU-27 Hard coal condensing (gen only): 2.4 ¢/kWh (LCA – 3.1 ¢/kWh)

$30/tCO2

Electricity

Source: Spadaro, J.V. 2014 (PURGE Project, EC-FP7)

30

RESULTS:� Energy demand decrease achieved through combination of abatement control, fuel switching

(less use of coal and more RES), advanced technology (FBR), and productivity losses (GDP)

� Industry and energy production sectors most affected

� Climate scenario emissions half of BAU, but still 65% above 2010 levels by 2050 (some use of CCS)

Based on Nam et al. (2013), Global Environmental Change 23:1648-61

19.0

23.3

1.7

8.0

3.9

7.4

3.8

7.0

9.6

12.3

11.5

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GtCO2

Poll_Str1

Poll_Str2

Poll_Mod

(8% SO2

and 10% NOx reductions every five years)

(Larger reductions early on, but same cumulative)

(Cap SO2

and NOx emissions at 2015 levels)

Climate

“Climate BONUS”: Co-benefits of climate policyResults of tighter control in China

31

Decarbonising urban

transportation

32

Transport

Mitigation of GHGs options aim to limit or control climate variability using technological

and behavioral options to reduce GHG emissions – avoid the unmanageable!

33

Decarbonizing urban transportation: The case study of Bilbao

Source: Spadaro, J.V. 2014. IARU SustainabilityCongress, Copenhagen, DK

Transport



Transport

34



Transport

35

36

Climate Change

37

The planet is warming up. While there are a number of short-term influences on the climate system, such as solar

variability, changing atmospheric aerosols due to volcanic activity and natural variability (e.g., ENSO), it is

increasingly clear that long-term warming can be attributed to increasing GHGE from human activities.

The Earth’s Climate System is Changing!

A global mean temperature change of 4℃ is similar in

magnitude to the difference between today’s

temperatures and those existing during the time of the

last ice age (4.5℃ to 7℃ lower than today).

Mt Pinatubo (1991)

El Niño (1998)

La Niña (2000)

Base year: 1951-80

∆T ≈ 0.8℃ since mid 1800’s

NASA-GISS

Source: NASA, http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-temps.html

38

Historical record of atmospheric CO2back to 800,000 years ago.

Vertical axis: atmospheric concentration in parts per million (ppm).

Source: Faria, Spadaro, et al., BC3 Policy Briefings, Special Issue #2 (2013)

402.1 (May 2014)

Land and ocean sinks have limited CO2concentration growth

Since 1959, 350 GtC have been emitted, 55% have ended up in land and oceans

Source: IPCC, WGI (2007), Global Carbon Project, CDIAC and NOAA

Has lead to changes in ocean

salinity and acidity; heat absorption

has contributed to sea-level rise

(3.2 cm/decade, including ice melt)

Since mid 1800’s global surface

mean temperature has risen 0.8℃

402.1ppm

(May 2014)

39

How climate variability and climate change impact health

Source: Adapted from IPCC, WGII - 5AR

Climate extremes

and change

Environmental conditions• Geography

• Weather

• Air pollution

• Land use (soil/vegetation)

• Green/blue infrastructure

• other

Public health system and adaptive capacity• Health warning systems

• Socioeconomic status

• Health and nutrition status

• Healthcare infrastructure

• Social cohesion

• otherHealth impacts and economic

costs

Societal infrastructure

Direct impacts: heat,

drought, floods, ....

Indirect effects mediated

through natural systems: air

pollution, food/water-borne

diseases, VBD, ....

Economic/social effects

mediated by human systems:

occupational impacts,

population displacement,

malnutrition, mental stress, ....

Societal infrastructure

Direct impacts: heat,

drought, floods, ....

Indirect effects mediated

through natural systems: air

pollution, food/water-borne

diseases, VBD, ....

Economic/social effects

mediated by human systems:

occupational impacts,

population displacement,

malnutrition, mental stress, ....

Moderating

influences

Injury,

disability,

loss of life40

41

Economic Costs of Climate Change

Source Estimates

Tol et al (2004) Global annual burden of 300 to 350B$ (1% of world GDP)

World Bank (2006)Without adaptive measures, economic costs 0.5% to 2% of world GDP

for a 2.5 deg C temperature increase

De Bruin et al (2009)

Strong regional disparities, with India and Africa especially impacted.

Health effects dominate damage costs in Africa (75% of total) (4-5%

GDP loss), whereas damages in India arise from agricultural losses,

health effects and from extreme weather events (4-5% GDP loss).

Ciscar et al (2009)

2020 – health burden range 13 to 30 B€2005


(w/o adaptation)


(incl. adaptation)

IPCCEconomic value of loss of life – 6 to 88 B$

1990(2007)

0.2 – 2% (2014)

Climate Vulnerability

Monitor, 2nd Ed. (2012)

2010 – 400,000 deaths are attributed to climate change, mostly

affecting children in developing countries (malnutrition accounts for

more than half of this cost); estimated health cost is 23 B$ (2010 PPP);

total cost (incl. labor productivity losses due to hotter temperatures)

reaches 700 B$, or 0.9% of world GDP.

2030 – 700,000 deaths (106 B$, 2010 PPP), total = 4400 B$ (2.1% GDP)

42

42

“Without further commitments and actions to reduce

(GHG Emissions), the world is likely to warm by more

than 3°C above the preindustrial climate.”

“Even with the current mitigation commitments and

pledges fully implemented, there is roughly a 20

percent likelihood of exceeding 4°C by 2100.”

“If they are not met, a warming of 4°C could occur as

early as the 2060s. Such a warming level and

associated sea-level rise of 0.5 to 1 meter, or more, by

2100 would not be the end point: a further warming

to levels over 6°C, with several meters of sea-level

rise, would likely occur over the following centuries.”

World Bank &

Potsdam Institute

Nov 2012

25% prob. to exceed 2℃ by 2050 if

emissions capped at 1000 GtCO2

between 2000-2050(Meinshausen et al., Nature, 458, April 2009)

Climate change adaptation

Adaptation = manage the unavoidable

Interventions aim to:

� Protect natural resources (ecosystems, forests, fisheries, and water supply)

� Maintain agricultural productivity (food security)

� Preserve landscape and physical property – Climate-proofing

(preservation of coastal zones and Infrastructure maintenance)

� Limit socio-economic disruptions and population displacement

� Lessen risks and disease burdens from exposure to climate extremes.

Access to technology and funds, availability and access to medical services, and public

awareness and education are crucial to enhance community resilience.

Mitigation and/or adaptation responses, can significantly reduce, but not completely eliminate,

the adverse effects of climate change.

While adaptation is more cost effective than mitigation in limiting residual climate costs in the

short-term, mitigation investments will result in lower aggregate residual costs over the long-term.

43

[email protected]

45

QUESTIONS ???

Training Caravan (Ikertzaileak gelan) Lasarte-Usurbil BHI and Beasain BHI, 28 April 2015

Education

Transcript of Training Caravan (Ikertzaileak gelan) Lasarte-Usurbil BHI and Beasain BHI, 28 April 2015