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INDUSTRY INSIGHT: INDIAN RETAIL INDUSTRY

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The report includes Executive Summary, Introduction, Global Retail Industry Scenario, Indian Retail Industry, Role of Indian Consumer In Evolving Retail Industry, Factors Underlying Evolution of Modern Retail in India, Organised Retail Formats, Mall Phenomenon: The Possible Implications, Food Retail In India, Apparel Retail In India, Other Retail Segments, Technology, Growth Drivers of Organized Retailing, Critical Success Factors, Emerging Trends In Indian Retailing, Legal And Regulatory Information, Issues & Challenges, Future Outlook

Total No. of Pages – 191 Total No. of Figures – 44 Total No. of Tables – 56 Total No. of exhibits - 59

The retail industry is among the largest industries in India, accounting for over 10 percent of the country’s GDP and about 8 percent of the employment in 2004. It has also emerged as one of the dynamic and fast-growing industries. According to the Global Retail Development Index 2005, India is the leading destination for retail investment.

The Industry Insight: Indian Retail Industry 2006, introduced by Cygnus, provides the comprehensive industry analysis. The Industry Insight answers the following key questions:

a. What is the Global Scenario – major markets, & outlook b. How the industry is evolving in India c. The Current Scenario in organized and unorganized retail d. Different market segments of the industry e. Characteristics and Changing Trends in the Indian Consumer

behavior f. What is the role of technology in retail? g. What are the external factors and how do they affect the industry?

Companies analyzed/mentioned Major Players in Food Retailing – Food World, Trinethra, Apna Bazaar, big Bazaar – Pantaloons, Margin Free, Subhiksha, Nilgiris, MTR

Major players in Apparel Retailing – Pantaloon Retail (India) Limited, Shopper’s Stop Limited, Trent Limited, Madura Garments, Lifestyle International (Pvt) Limited, Piramyd Retail Limited, Provogue (India) Limited, Raymond Apparel Limited, Ebony Retail Holdings Limited, Globus

Additional Information The report makes a Michael Porter analysis of discusses the FDI in detail covering the restrictions, present scenario and strategies of International players for Indian market. It presents a case study on Chinese retailing and gives an in- depth analysis of “Why FDI is good for India?” In the end, report gives Vision 2010.

This report is an insightful resource in identifying potential and opportunities in retail industry.

Who should buy the report? The report is a must – buy for those who wish to enter in retailing or the existing players to improve upon their strategies and retailing formats. This report is suitable to individuals responsible for and interested in:

a. Board and executive management b. Business strategy / Business development c. Retail Vertical Team in ITES BPO to understand the evolving industry d. Business school students e. Consultants f. Entrepreneurs

To place order Send your request to [email protected] or fax to 040 – 23430201

© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 1

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INDUSTRY INSIGHT – INDIAN RETAIL INDUSTRY

CONTENTS

1. Executive Summary................................................................................. 11

2. Introduction .......................................................................................... 16

3. Global Retail Industry Scenario ................................................................ 18

3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 183.2 Current Market Scenario- Retail the biggest industry ........................................ 183.3 Consumer Demographic Trends...................................................................... 19

3.3.1 Changing Households..........................................................................................193.3.2 Changing Income ................................................................................................203.3.3 Aging Population ................................................................................................20

3.4 Major Markets .............................................................................................. 203.4.1 Unswerving: the US .............................................................................................203.4.2 Shining star of Europe: the UK..............................................................................213.4.3 Restructure of Germany........................................................................................223.4.4Revolution in Japan ..............................................................................................23

3.5 Growth Drivers ............................................................................................. 233.5.1 GDP growth ........................................................................................................233.5.2 Consumers’ desire for something unique ...............................................................243.5.3 Increased spending on IT by Retailers....................................................................243.5.4 Online shopping..................................................................................................243.5.5 Looking east for growth........................................................................................25

3.6 Recent Trends and Developments.................................................................... 253.6.1 Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology ...................................................253.6.2 Consolidation and Global Expansion ....................................................................253.6.3 Consumer trends .................................................................................................263.6.4 Augmented use of Smart cards .............................................................................263.6.5 Self Service .........................................................................................................26

3.7 Issues and Challenges.................................................................................... 263.7.1 Supply Chain Efficiency .......................................................................................273.7.2 Smart pricing ......................................................................................................273.7.3 Books and Records in smaller businesses ...............................................................273.7.4 Shifting demographic trends.................................................................................27

3.8 Outlook........................................................................................................ 28

4. Indian Retail Industry .............................................................................. 29

4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 294.2 The Evolution of the Indian Retail Industry........................................................ 304.3 Number of Retailers ...................................................................................... 314.4 Ways to Categorize Retailers ......................................................................... 33

4.4.1 On the Basis of Target Markets Served ..................................................................334.4.2 On the Basis of Products Carried ..........................................................................344.4.3 On the Basis of Pricing Strategy............................................................................344.4.4 On the Basis of Promotional Focus ........................................................................354.4.5 On the Basis of Distribution Method ......................................................................364.4.6 On the Basis of Service Level ................................................................................37


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4.4.7 On the Basis of Ownership Structure.....................................................................384.5 Industry Structure .......................................................................................... 394.6 Current Market Scenario................................................................................ 42

4.6.1 Unorganized Retail..............................................................................................434.6.2 Organized Retail .................................................................................................43

4.7 Market Segments in Retailing ......................................................................... 464.7.1 Food retailing......................................................................................................464.7.2 Apparel retailing .................................................................................................464.7.3 Household /Consumer durables retailing ..............................................................474.7.4 Indian Music and Books Retailing .........................................................................48

4.8 Michael Porter Analysis ................................................................................. 49

5. Role of Indian Consumer In Evoving Retail Industry .................................... 53

5.1 Characteristics of the Indian Consumer Behavior.............................................. 535.2 Changing Demographics: Young population with high disposable income......... 545.3 Rising income levels....................................................................................... 555.4 Consumption Growth now visible ................................................................... 575.5 Urban consumer’s shopping basket is changing............................................... 585.6 Increasing Awareness of Indian Consumers..................................................... 605.7 Changing Trends in the Indian Consumer Behaviour ........................................ 60

6. Factors Underlying Evolution of Modern Retail in India ............................... 62

6.1 Economic development .................................................................................. 626.2 Improvements in civic situation ....................................................................... 636.3 Changes in consumer needs, attitudes and behaviour ...................................... 63

7. Organised Retail Formats ........................................................................ 64

7.1 Different Retail Formats across the World........................................................ 647.2 Retail Formats in India ................................................................................... 67

7.2.1 Traditional retail formats ......................................................................................677.2.2 Modern Retail Formats Existing In India.................................................................69

7.3 Emerging Retailing Format: E-Tailing .............................................................. 717.3.1 E-tailing – Why does it stand apart.......................................................................727.3.4 Conveniences looked for by consumers in E-tailing.................................................737.3.5 The Challenges of E-tailing ...................................................................................747.3.6 Issues Concerning Modern Formats/ Organised Retailers .......................................76

7.4 How to Increase the Power of Organised Retail ............................................... 777.5 Barriers to implementation ............................................................................. 78

8. Mall Phenomenon: The Possible Implications ............................................. 79

8.1 Issues to Be Addressed By Shopping Malls ...................................................... 798.1.1 Competition from unorganised sector – Pricing and Perception ...............................798.1.2 Unrealistic Real Estate Pricing ...............................................................................808.1.3 Lack of planned facilities ......................................................................................808.1.4 Lack of adequate parking facilities ........................................................................818.1.5 Fit and Forget Attitude of Mall Developers .............................................................818.1.6 Inexperience in Mall Management ........................................................................818.1.7 Need of Right type of Architectural Expertise and Design .......................................828.1.8 Broker Driven Leasing ..........................................................................................82


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8.2 Steps to Be Adopted By Shopping Malls to Ensure Success ............................... 828.2.1 Catchment Analysis .............................................................................................828.2.2 Right Component Mix ..........................................................................................83

9. Food Retail In India ................................................................................ 84

9.1 Evolution of Organized Food Retailing In India................................................ 849.2 Current Market Scenario................................................................................ 859.3 Characteristics of Organized Food Retail ........................................................ 87

9.3.1 Region wise Preferences exist among consumers ....................................................877.3.2 Regional Players dominate in Food Retail ..............................................................879.3.3 Hurdles in going National ....................................................................................88

9.4 Key Driver of Food Retail In India - Integration of Food Industry ........................ 889.4.1 Increased government support ..............................................................................899.4.2 Industry initiatives ................................................................................................899.4.3 Emergence of new players ...................................................................................90

9.5 Major Players - India’s Top Food Retailers....................................................... 909.5.1 Food World ........................................................................................................909.5.2 Trinethra.............................................................................................................919.5.3 Apna Bazaar ......................................................................................................929.5.4 Big Bazaar – Pantaloons ......................................................................................929.5.5 Margin Free........................................................................................................929.5.6 Subhiksha ...........................................................................................................929.5.7 Nilgiris ...............................................................................................................939.5.8 MTR ...................................................................................................................93

9.6 Regulatory Issues in Organized Food Retailing ................................................ 949.6.1 Government Policy on Food Retailing - India .........................................................949.6.2 Food Safety Issues ...............................................................................................949.6.3 Food Labelling In India with Special Reference to Codex Guidelines ........................95

9.7 Emerging Trends ........................................................................................... 969.7.1 Likely Transformation of the Supply Chain .............................................................969.7.2 Changing Supplier Retailer Relationships...............................................................979.7.3 Innovations in Transportation Logistics...................................................................989.7.4 Developing Social Trends .....................................................................................989.7.5 Increasing Impact of Technology...........................................................................99

9.8 Challenges of Organized Food retailing ....................................................... 1009.9 Outlook of Food Retailing ............................................................................ 100

10. Apparel Retail In India ........................................................................ 102

10.1 Introduction .............................................................................................. 10210.2 Current Market Scenario............................................................................ 102

10.2.1 Development of India’s branded market ............................................................10310.2.2 Market segmentation .......................................................................................10510.2.3 Mens Apparel Market ......................................................................................10510.2.4 Women Apparel Market ..................................................................................10510.2.5 Kids/Children Apparel Market .........................................................................106

10.3 Major Players ........................................................................................... 10610.3.1 Pantaloon Retail (India) Limited.........................................................................10610.3.2 Shopper’s Stop Limited.....................................................................................11010.3.3 Trent Limited....................................................................................................11210.3.4 Madura Garments ...........................................................................................114


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10.3.5 Lifestyle International (Pvt) Limited .....................................................................11610.3.6 Piramyd Retail Limited......................................................................................11710.3.7 Provogue (India) Limited...................................................................................12110.3.8 Raymond Apparel Limited ................................................................................12510.3.9 Ebony Retail Holdings Limited...........................................................................12610.3.10 Globus .........................................................................................................128

10.4 Recent Trends and Developments................................................................ 12910.4.1 Emerging large format stores in India................................................................12910.4.2 Preference for RTW garments ...........................................................................12910.4.3 Focus on technology to reduce cost and improve efficiency .................................13010.4.4 Growth of Private Label....................................................................................130

10.5 Outlook.................................................................................................... 13010.5.1 Apparel exports to grow post quota removal .....................................................13010.5.2 Implementation of VAT to reduce cost and complexity ........................................13110.5.3 Huge growth potential .....................................................................................131

11. Other Retail Segments......................................................................... 132

11.1 Health and beauty products retailers........................................................... 13211.2 Home furniture and household goods retailers............................................. 13211.3 Durable goods retailers ............................................................................. 13211.4 Leisure and personal goods retailers ........................................................... 13211.5 Alternative selling channels ........................................................................ 133

12. Technology ........................................................................................ 134

12.1 Role of Technology in Retail ....................................................................... 13412.2 Supply Chain Management........................................................................ 134

12.2.1 European Article Numbering............................................................................13412.2.2 Efficient Consumer Response ............................................................................135

12.3 Logistics Management ............................................................................... 13612.4 Inventory Management .............................................................................. 13712.5 Emerging Technologies.............................................................................. 137

12.5.1 CRM...............................................................................................................13712.5.2 OLAP..............................................................................................................13812.5.3 Systems Analysis and Program (SAP) ................................................................13812.5.4 Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) ................................................................138

13. Growth Drivers of Organized Retailing................................................. 140

13.1 Media Proliferation ................................................................................... 14013.2 Availability of quality real estate & Mall Management practices.................... 14013.3 Availability of brands and merchandise ...................................................... 14313.4 Enhanced Funding Options ........................................................................ 14313.5 Implementation of VAT to reduce cost and complexity .................................. 14313.6 Changing Demographic profile .................................................................. 14313.7 Changing lifestyles .................................................................................... 14413.8 Exposure to international trends ................................................................. 144

13.8.1 Domestic outbound tourists – raised aspirations .................................................14413.8.2 Impact of globalization ....................................................................................14513.8.3 Inbound tourists, shopping ...............................................................................145


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14. Critical Success Factors ....................................................................... 146

14.1 Location ................................................................................................... 14614.2 Merchandise............................................................................................. 14714.3 Knowledge and Information ....................................................................... 14714.4 Customer Satisfaction ................................................................................ 14714.5 Ability to Acquire the Right Products ........................................................... 14814.6 Product Presentation / Placement ............................................................... 14814.7 Traffic Building.......................................................................................... 14814.8 Layout ...................................................................................................... 14814.9 Keeping Pace with Technology ................................................................... 149

15. Emerging Trends In Indian Retailing ..................................................... 150

15.1 Unorganized retailing is getting organized ................................................. 15015.2 Increased Focus of Global Players on Sourcing from India............................ 15015.3 Forward integration / Alternative channels ................................................. 15115.4 Rapid expansion and format migration ....................................................... 15115.5 Creative Store Designs............................................................................... 15215.6 Convenience stores at gas stations.............................................................. 15315.7 Introduction of In-Flight Retailing by Airlines................................................ 153

16. Legal And Regulatory Information ........................................................ 154

16.1 Regulations and Policies ............................................................................ 15416.1.1 Shops and Establishments Acts .........................................................................15416.1.2 In respect of goods/products ............................................................................15416.1.3 Fiscal Regulations ............................................................................................15516.1.4 Value Added Tax ............................................................................................15516.1.5 Employment Related Regulations.......................................................................15516.1.6 Contract Labour (Regulation and Abolition) Act .................................................15516.1.7 Foreign Investment Regulations .........................................................................15616.1.8 Other Regulations............................................................................................156

16.2 Government Support To The Retail Industry ................................................. 15716.3 FDI in Retail .............................................................................................. 157

16.3.1 Restrictions on FDI ...........................................................................................15716.3.2 Present Scenario..............................................................................................15816.3.3 Strategies of international retailers ....................................................................15916.3.4 FDI in retail – Required or Not? ........................................................................15916.3.5 Foreign Retailers Eying India ............................................................................16316.3.6 Case Study: Chinese Retailing .........................................................................16416.3.7 In-Depth Analysis – Why Fdi Is Good For India .................................................16616.3.8 Recommendations ...........................................................................................16816.3.9 Conclusion ......................................................................................................169

17. Issues & Challenges ............................................................................ 170

17.1 No industry status ..................................................................................... 17017.2 Gaps in the Retail Sector............................................................................ 17117.3 Limitations due to Land and property Laws .................................................. 17217.4 Limitations due to stringent Labour laws ...................................................... 17217.5 Other Regulatory Disadvantages ................................................................ 173


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17.6 Lack of basic & secondary infrastructure ..................................................... 17417.7 Non Availability of Quality Real estate at prime locations............................. 17417.8 Extensive distribution network..................................................................... 17517.9 Supply chain issues ................................................................................... 17517.10 Revenue considerations ........................................................................... 17517.11 Economies of trade.................................................................................. 17617.12 Managing channel conflicts ..................................................................... 17617.13 Non Availability of skilled manpower ....................................................... 17717.14 Differentiation and Reach ........................................................................ 17717.15 Growth in non-Metros ............................................................................. 17717.16 Differences between urban-rural consumers .............................................. 17817.17 Disadvantages of India as a country ......................................................... 178

18. Future Outlook ................................................................................... 179

18.1 Vision 2010 ............................................................................................. 17918.1.1 Investment will increase....................................................................................18018.1.2 Changing Consumer Demographics will affect Retail Sales .................................18018.1.3 Regional differences will stay............................................................................18118.1.4 Retailers would adapt more than one format......................................................18118.1.5 Dual focus on costs and time ............................................................................18218.1.6 24 hours of retailing ......................................................................................18218.1.7 Small retailers will coexist.................................................................................18218.1.8 Supply chain dynamics ....................................................................................18318.1.9 Internet ...........................................................................................................183

Annexure I. Business Models In India.......................................................... 184

Annexure II: Major Players In Apparel – 2004 - 05 ..................................... 185


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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Organized Vs Traditional Retailing (2004) Figure 2: Global Retail Sales Vs % Change (2000-2004) Figure 3: Retail Sales in US (1998-2004) Figure 4: Retail Sales in UK (1998-2004) Figure 5: Retail Sales in Germany (1998-2004) Figure 6: Retail Sales in Japan (1998-2004) Figure 7: Retail Sales Vs Retail Sales/GDP (2004) Figure 8: The different phases in growth of organized retail Figure 9: Fragmented nature of Indian Retail Figure 10: Retail Market Size 2002 Figure 11: Rural Versus Urban, the difference Figure 12: Indian Retail Market Distributions Figure 13: Transformation of the Retail Sector across the world Figure 14: Percent Contribution of different categories to organized retail Figure 15: Contribution of food in the total spend in consumers Figure 16: Growth among different segments in Retail Figure 17: No. of Consumer durable stores in India Figure 18: No. of Consumer durable stores in India Figure 19: No. of Book & Music Stores in India Figure 20: Porter’s Five Forces Model of Industry Analysis Figure 21: Changing Age Demographics of India Figure 22: All India – Distribution of households by income (Rs per annum) Figure 23: Urban India – Distribution of households by income (Rs per annum) Figure 24: Private final consumption in India in FY 04 Figure 25: Indian Food Retail Industry – Market Size (2000-2004) Figure 26: Indian Food Retail Industry – Market Segments Contribution in 2004 Figure 27: Literacy Rate & working women population Figure 28: Indian Apparel Market size (2000-2004) Figure 29: Growth of Indian Apparel Market (2000-2004) Figure 30: Share of Branded Market (2004) Figure 31:Consumer expenditure in Apparel Segment (1999-2003) Figure 32: Indian Apparel Market Segmentation Figure 33:No. of retail outlets (2000-2005) Figure 34: ECR Model Figure 35: Evolution of Real Estate in Retail Sector in India Figure 36: Operational Malls/Shopping Centres as on 31 August 2005 Figure 37: Current and projected mall space by end-2007 Figure 38: Median Age in Years Figure 39: Evolution of Critical Success Factors in retail Figure 40: Common Layouts in Supermarkets Figure 41: Share of Organized Retail in FMCG sales Figure 42: Benefits to the government Figure 43: Total wholesale & retail trade in China Figure 44: Employment in Retailing in China


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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Top four players in the US by revenue in 2004 Table 2: The top four players in the UK by revenue in 2005 Table 3: The top four players in Germany by revenue in 2004 Table 4: Top four players in the Germany by revenue in 2004 Table 5: GDP Average Annual Growth (2004 – 2008) Table 6: Some interesting facts on Retail Table 7: No. of Retail stores in India Table 8: Organized retail is restricted to the top few cities of the country Table 9: Market size – Organized Retail (1999 – 2005) Table 10: Country Profile – India Table 11: Evolving Consumer expectations Table 12: Age distribution in India – 2005 Table 13: Distribution among the Consumer Shopping Basket (%) Table 14: Hot Categories among Consumers in 03-04 Table 15: Foreign Brands are popular in these categories Table 16: Factors underlying modernization in retailing Table 17: Retail Formats - Summary Chart Table 18: Traditional retail formats Table 19: Evolving Size of Different Retail Formats Table 20: Modern Retail Formats in India – Summary Chart Table 21: Critical Success Factors for E- tail Table 22: Bottlenecks in E-tailing Table 23: Advantages of E-tailing Table 24: India Food Retail Market Value Table 25: Money Spending Priorities across Regions Table 26: Regional dominance in Food Retail Table 27: Major Players in Food Retail Table 28: Product and Services – PRIL Table 29: The Business Brands - PRIL Table 30: Upcoming Stores – PRIL Table 31: Products – Shopper’s stop Table 32: Services – Shopper’s stop Table 33: The Business Brands – Shopper’s stop Table 34: Store Area – Shopper’s stop Table 35: Upcoming Stores – Shopper’s stop Table 36: Product mix of Westside store Table 37: Product mix of Star India Bazaar Table 38: Gross Margin - Trent Table 39: Upcoming Stores – Trent Table 40: Retail outlets - Lifestyle Table 41: The Business Brands - Piramyd Table 42: Private Labels – Piramyd Table 43: Retail outlets - Ebony


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Table 44: Current development of malls in the Tier 1 & Tier 2 Cities Table 45: India Real State Development by 2006-07 Table 46: Loyalty programmes in Retail Table 47: Formats adopted by key players Table 48: New Formats being experimented currentlyTable 49: Initiatives taken by Government of India for Indian Retail Industry Table 50: State of Organized Retailing in South-East Asian CountriesTable 51: International Retailers with presence in India Table 52: Case in Point - Food World Table 53: International Retailers Eying India Table 54: Development of Organized Retail Formats in China Table 55: Comparison between China and India in terms of International Players’ Outlets Table 56: Benefits and Impact on the Country

LIST OF EXHIBITS

Exhibit 1: The key issues faced by global retailers Exhibit 2: Key forecasts on Global Retailing Exhibit 3: Classification of Retailers based on target market served Exhibit 4: Classification based on products carried Exhibit 5: Classification based on pricing strategy Exhibit 6: Classification based on promotional selling focus Exhibit 7: Classification based on Distribution Method Exhibit 8: Classification based on the basis of service level Exhibit 9: Classification based on the basis of ownership structure Exhibit 10: Nature of Indian Retail Industry Exhibit 11: Implications of economic boom Exhibit 12: Concerns on growth of Retail Exhibit 13: Things to look for in E-tailing Exhibit 14: Factors Influencing E-tailing Exhibit 15: Two primary cost-related forces that drive profitability in the eWorld Exhibit 16: Challenges before modern formats Exhibit 17: Shops closed due to inability to cope with the commercial stress Exhibit 18: Factors adding to mall stress Exhibit 19: Pace of Organized Retailing hampered by the following factors Exhibit 20: Food consumption evolutionary pattern Exhibit 21: Retail Models in India: Current & Emerging Exhibit 22: Hurdles in going National Exhibit 23: Fiscal relief and incentives by Government Exhibit 24: Industry Initiative Exhibit 25: Limitations due to Laws and regulations on Retailing Exhibit 26: Emerging Technologies Exhibit 27: Obstructions in path of organized Food Retailing Exhibit 28: Growth drivers for apparel retail sector Exhibit 29: The Indian apparel market is classified into two main categories Exhibit 31: Pantaloon Retail (India) limited


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Exhibit 32: Shopper’s Stop Exhibit 33: Trent limited Exhibit 34: Madura Garments Exhibit 35: Lifestyle International (Pvt) Limited Exhibit 36: Piramyd Retail Limited Exhibit 37: Provogue (India) Limited Exhibit 38: Raymond Apparel limited Exhibit 39: Ebony Retail holdings limited Exhibit 40: Globus Exhibit 41: Increasing demand for white shirts Exhibit 42: Westside was the first to recognize the advantage of private labels in 2004 Exhibit 43: Key factors that will drive growth of organized retailing Exhibit 44: Technology affects top line performance of retail industry through Exhibit 45: ECR Exhibit 46: Trends that will shape the future of IT in the area of logistics Exhibit 47: An efficient ERP system helps the retailer in Exhibit 48: RFID applications Exhibit 49: Benefits of implementing SAP Exhibit 50: Benefits by adopting RFID Exhibit 51: Latest technologies in Retail Exhibit 52: Case in Point – MusicWorld Exhibit 53: Shop & Establishments Acts Exhibit 54: Local & Municipal Regulations Exhibit 56: Benefits to Retail sector due to industry status Exhibit 57: Gaps in the Retail Sector Exhibit 58: Limitations due to Land and property Laws Exhibit 59: Limitations due to stringent Labour laws

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