Council of the European Union General Secretariat

THINK TANK REVIEW APRIL 2020

Council Library ISSUE 77

This Think Tank Review* covers articles and reports published in March relating to different

political and policy topics (twitter link).

The special focus covers extensive reports on COVID-19 and all the repercussions and

consequences of the pandemic in the EU, the member states, in international relations and

individual countries:

The publications analyse how the epidemic has unfolded since its appearance in China, and

look at the economic effects which present fundamental challenges for the European project.

A European and global response is needed to tackle the severe economic disruptions

effectively.

'Whatever it takes' must be the motto for preserving lives and reducing the impact on the

economy. This requires a strong and coordinated budgetary and monetary response from

policy-makers at all levels of government in Europe.

Leaders can stop corona from undermining the EU. In order to provide European companies

with liquidity, for instance, a pandemic solidarity instrument is needed and the fiscal burden of

the crisis must be shared.

Some papers also reflect on how the coronavirus pandemic acts as a catalyst for a

fundamental redistribution of power, testing the resilience of the EU and its members.

Others explore the implications of the corona crisis for the European Green Deal, how COVID-

19 can trigger a global transformation, how it has shaken the global oil market and put some

countries on track for recession, impacting the USA's or China's economy.

Updated think tank reports on COVID-19 are regularly posted on the Library blog.

On the EU institutions, the reports put the spotlight on President Michel’s 100+ dynamic days in

office, his discourse and social media presence on topics such as EU-Africa relations, climate or

COVID-19. They also analyse how the European project can be reinvented by focusing on the

‘participation’ of citizens, in order to give European democracy a new impetus.

On economic affairs, several papers ask what the ECB will do in the next recession, facing the

lower bound, or how much can the ECB push the limits in restoring sustainable growth and what

‘solidarity’ means in the euro area.

In addition, papers look at labour regulations in the age of artificial intelligence, the need to

update Schengen, the boundaries of enlargement policy, the implications of trade wars for the EU

and the role of the WTO dispute-resolution mechanism.

The TTR can be downloaded from Council's Library blog. TTR articles are available via Eureka,

the resource discovery service of the Council Libraries.

* This collection of abstracts and links was compiled by the Council Library of the General Secretariat of the EU Council for information

purposes only. The content links are the sole responsibility of their authors. Publications linked from this review do not represent the positions, policies or opinions of the Council of the EU or the European Council.

The Council Library is open to staff of the EU institutions and Permanent Representations of the member states. The general public may use the Library for research purposes. It is located in the Justus Lipsius building, at JL 02 GH, Rue de la Loi 175, 1048 Brussels. Contact: library@consilium.europa.eu

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

SPECIAL FOCUS ................................................................................................................ 4

SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS ............................................................ 12

SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES .............................................................................................. 14

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS .................................................................................... 23

SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES ................................................................................ 34

MISCELLANEOUS ............................................................................................................ 37

COVID -19............................................................................................................................................................. 4

Competitiveness (Internal Market, Industry, Research and Space) .................................................................... 14

Economic and Financial Affairs ........................................................................................................................... 15

Education / Youth / Culture / Sport ...................................................................................................................... 17

Employment / Social Policy / Health and Consumer Affairs ................................................................................ 17

Environmental Issues .......................................................................................................................................... 18

General Affairs .................................................................................................................................................... 19

Justice and Home Affairs .................................................................................................................................... 20

Transport / Telecommunications / Energy ........................................................................................................... 22

Foreign and Security Policy / Defence ................................................................................................................ 23

Trade ................................................................................................................................................................... 25

Development ....................................................................................................................................................... 26

Africa ................................................................................................................................................................... 26

Asia-Oceania ....................................................................................................................................................... 27

Eastern Europe ................................................................................................................................................... 28

Latin America and the Caribbean ........................................................................................................................ 28

Middle East / North Africa (MENA) ...................................................................................................................... 28

Western Balkans ................................................................................................................................................. 30

China ................................................................................................................................................................... 30

Russia ................................................................................................................................................................. 30

Turkey ................................................................................................................................................................. 31

United Kingdom / Brexit ...................................................................................................................................... 32

United States of America .................................................................................................................................... 32

Germany ............................................................................................................................................................. 34

France ................................................................................................................................................................. 34

Italy ..................................................................................................................................................................... 35

Netherlands ......................................................................................................................................................... 36

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COVID -19

FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN

Dans la tempête

by Jean Dominique Giuliani @JD_Giuliani

To the "nothing will be as before" and "there will be a before and an after", is it possible to oppose a wiser thinking? It is very difficult to imagine all the consequences of this health crisis and one another’s predictions may once again be proved wrong. On the other hand, it is permissible to think about what is happening in our societies and on the international scene and about what already seems to have changed in our countries and for Europe. (FR - 7 p.)

CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES

Chronicle of a pandemic foretold

by Andrea Renda @profAndreaRenda and Rosa J.

Castro @RosaCastroB

In just a few weeks, COVID-19 appeared in China and quickly spread to the rest of the world, including Europe and the US. Many have rushed to describe the outbreak as a ‘black swan’ – an unpredictable event with extremely severe consequences. However, COVID-19 was not only predictable ex post: it was amply predicted ex ante. This brief explores ways to pursue enhanced resilience and responsiveness, and examines their compatibility with sustainability and democratic values. (8 p.)

ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)

International order and the European project in times of COVID19

by Nathalie Tocci @NathalieTocci

The international liberal order, as well as the EU within it, has been in trouble for years now: challenged by illiberal powers like China and Russia, as much as from within as Donald Trump disavowed the order that US had established and sustained. The EU has been shaken by the successive eurozone

and migration crises, while its surrounding regions were spiralling into conflict and outright collapse. COVID19 could be the final nail in the coffin of a rules-based international order and the European project within it. But it could also give birth to a new phoenix rising from its ashes. (7 p.)

ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)

COVID-19 emergency: Europe needs a vaccine

by Nicoletta Pirozzi @NicolePirozzi

The article describes the member states’ reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic, supporting the idea that reacting to a global pandemic with purely national measures is in itself absurd, above all because the virus knows no borders. The article describes what has been done at the EU level so far and what should be done in order to avoid any missed opportunity for the EU citizens to feel the closeness and utility of its institutions, with words and deeds. (5 p.)

FUNDACION DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMIA APLICADA

La reacción de la Unión Europea ante el COVID-19

by Eva Valle

This document analyses the actions taken so far by the EU in relation to the coronavirus epidemic and its economic effects and reflects on the need to take additional measures to face a fundamental challenge for the European project. The EU is playing a lot in this crisis. The economies of the euro countries are so interconnected that destabilizing one of them would have unaffordable effects on the others. This requires close cooperation between all of them to mitigate the effects of the crisis, jointly share its costs and facilitate a quick recovery. (ES - 19 p.)

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DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)

How leaders can stop corona from undermining the EU. The health and economic crises require coordinated handling

by Daniela Schwarzer @D_Schwarzer and Shahin

Vallée @Shahinvallee

The coronavirus pandemic, and the resulting severe economic disruptions, can only be effectively tackled with a European and global response. The degree of integration and interdependence between member states – economically, politically and socially – means that in dealing with the virus and its economic effects, the EU is only as strong as its weakest part. Governments have to devise a more forward-looking, collective response. Hesitation and the failure to tackle the problem collectively will increase the losses – in terms of lives, economic wellbeing, political stability and EU unity. (7 p.)

BRUEGEL

An effective economic response to the coronavirus in Europe. 'Whatever it takes' needs to be the motto to preserve lives and reduce the impact on the economy of the epidemic

by Maria Demertzis @mariademertzis, André Sapir,

Simone Tagliapietra @Tagliapietra_S et al.

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a major shock to the global and European economy. The economic consequences of quarantine and lock-down measures are major, and are felt through both supply and demand-side channels. A coordinated and bold response by authorities is necessary. (10 p.)

NOTRE EUROPE - INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS

Comment le budget de l'UE peut-il contribuer à résoudre la crise du coronavirus?

by Eulalia Rubio @eulaliarubio

The spread of COVID-19 in Europe leads to the need to provide a coordinated European

financial response in order to support the healthcare systems of the member states and avoid a major economic recession. The EU budget is not suited to respond to the coronavirus crisis. However, it is the only financial instrument available to the European institutions and should therefore be used as much as possible to combat this crisis. In March, the Commission presented several initiatives to respond to the COVID-19 epidemic, suggesting the development of an "Investment initiative in response to the coronavirus" worth 37 billion euros financed with cohesion policy funds. (FR - 5 p.)

NOTRE EUROPE - INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS

Coronavirus: un filet de sécurité européen pour accompagner la réponse budgétaire

by Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg and Johannes Hemker

Efforts to contain and mitigate the coronavirus rightly focus on public health. But Europe is also in an unprecedented economic situation: many of its major economies, if not all, are shutdown, and probably for a long time. In the absence of a viable instrument capable of providing a coordinated budgetary response for the euro area or the EU as a whole, the response will have to come from the member states. It is essential that it be rapid and of sufficient magnitude to dispel any doubt about the determination of European politicians. (FR - 4 p.)

NOTRE EUROPE - INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS

La politique budgétaire a l'heure du coronavirus: il est temps d'activer les clauses de sauvegarde inscrites dans les cadres budgétaires

by Andreas Eisl

The COVID-19 pandemic requires a strong and coordinated budgetary and monetary response from policy makers at all levels of government in Europe. Although the exact consequences of this crisis are currently very difficult to assess fully, it is of utmost importance that the EU member states and the European institutions commit to spending without limit (spending as much as

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necessary to resolve the crisis) and to ensuring the unconditional refinancing of this expenditure. (FR - 7 p.)

INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) "GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE (IW)"

Ein Überblick über aktuelle Konjunkturstudien zur Corona-Krise

by Hubertus Bardt @H_Bardt, Michael Grömling and

Galina Kolev @galina_kolev

This article briefly lists and comments on some of the current economic studies on the corona crisis. The focus is on the one hand on the global economy and on the other hand on the German economy. The review of the studies was completed on March 23, 2020. (DE - 9 p.)

THE LISBON COUNCIL

Whatever it takes, why urgent fiscal policy action is key to Eurozone success

by Alessandro Leipold @ALeipold

In light of the recent COVID-19 outbreak and its impact on economic growth, Europe is faced with a clear and present danger of economic slowdown. But is it only COVID-19 that threatens the European economy? With central banks running low on ammunition, the author calls for a Copernican revolution in European policymaking. Fiscal policy must step up and do “whatever it takes.” He proposes a five-point programme to shore up the European economy, including adopting a European unemployment benefit reinsurance programme, agreeing the budgetary instrument for convergence and competitiveness mechanism. (12 p.)

HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE/BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG

Legal, compliant and suitable: the ECB‘s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

by Sebastian Grund @GrundSebastian

The ECB has announced a 750-billion-euro purchase programme to fight the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. But like

all ECB programmes in recent years, the new PEPP will likely be challenged in court. The PEPP is compatible with the three criteria the EU Court of Justice has established to check the legality of monetary policy measures: the PEPP falls within the ECB’s mandate; it respects the principle of proportionality; and it does not violate the prohibition of monetary financing. (9 p.)

ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΊΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΗΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY)

COVID-19: EΜU’s new fiscal challenge

by Dimitrios Katsikas

The coronavirus pandemic is an unprecedented health crisis with tragic humanitarian consequences. Effective tackling of the pandemic, in both health and economic terms, requires an ambitious fiscal approach. Such an undertaking is a challenge, whose scale is magnified for the EMU, which experienced a deep economic crisis in recent years. (14 p.)

BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG / HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE

by Sebastian Grund @GrundSebastian, Lucas

Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg and Christian Odendahl

@COdendahl

Sharing the fiscal burden of the crisis. A pandemic solidarity instrument for the EU

EU member states must share the burden of the fiscal costs of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic solidarity instrument delivers such burden sharing: the EU would borrow 440 billion euros in the market and would give it as grants to member states for specific spending in areas such as health care, short-time works schemes or stimulus packages; it would also give guarantees to the European Investment Bank to provide liquidity to European companies. (12 p.)

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LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY

The current European debate on fiscal policy: too much and too little

by Marcello Messori

The article presents the response of the EU to the COVID-crisis from a fiscal point of view. It describes the ECB’s decision to launch new longer-term refinancing operations and targeted longer-term refinancing operations programs to ensure liquidity to the banking sector and to SMEs and to temporarily strengthen its ‘quantitative easing’ policy; it continues with Commission’s decision to suspend the Stability and Growth Pact and analyses the corona bonds. (6 p.)

ÖSTERREICHISCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR EUROPAPOLITIK (AUSTRIAN SOCIETY FOR EUROPEAN POLITICS)

EU-Wirtschaftspolitik in Zeiten der Coronakrise

by Kurt Bayer

The corona crisis presents Europe with huge challenges, both medically and economically. In terms of economic policy, it comes in addition to a crisis in the financial markets and the global upheavals caused by the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The ECB has put together a large aid package. The Commission has temporarily suspended a large number of regulatory obstacles that can hinder national crisis-fighting measures and has realigned some of its budget funds, mainly to strengthen small and medium-sized enterprises. (DE - 10 p.)

INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) "GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE (IW)"

Wirtschaftspolitische Antworten auf die Corona-Krise: Liquidität hat Vorrang!

by Michael Grömling, Michael Hüther

@michael_huether, Martin Beznoska et al.

The corona crisis is a global challenge. The COVID-19 spread represents both a negative demand shock and a negative supply shock from an overall economic

perspective. There are noticeable export shortfalls to China and other affected economies. (DE - 11 p.)

CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES

Monitoring Covid-19 contagion growth in Europe

by Arianna Agosto, Alexandra Campmas, Paolo Giudici et al.

This study presents an econometric model which can be employed to monitor the evolution of the COVID-19 contagion curve. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can dynamically show the evolution of contagion in different time periods and locations, allowing for the comparative evaluation of policy approaches. Its presents results for nine European countries currently hit by the virus and draws four main conclusions regarding policy measures. (22 p.)

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

Regular update on EUEA level to mitigate the economic and social effects of coronavirus

This document compiles information, obtained from public sources, on the measures proposed and taken at the EU or euro area level to mitigate the economic and social effects of Covid19. (21 p.)

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM

Workforce principles for the COVID-19 pandemic: stakeholder capitalism in a time of crisis

While there currently is a significant focus on the public health and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the workforce and societal implications are no less profound. The guiding principles and the four workforce management imperatives outlined in this document are a preliminary response to the unfolding crisis. (8 p.)

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ÖSTERREICHISCHE INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE POLITIK (AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)

Europäische Entfremdungsprozesse und ihre Dynamik in Südosteuropa in Zeiten der Corona-Krise

by Vedran Dzihic @vedrandzihic

In March, the corona crisis broke out like a tsunami over Europe. The fight against the virus triggered national and nationalist reflexes and revealed weaknesses in the EU's ability to act in foreign policy. The present analysis places the latest developments in the time of the corona crisis in the context of the longer-term structural development of the region and EU integration in Southeast Europe. The corona crisis poses an increased risk of further alienation between the EU and Southeast Europe, but could, in a positive scenario, lead to a revitalization of this relationship. (14 p.)

IFRI (INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES)

L'Europe face à la rivalité sino-américaine : le coronavirus comme catalyseur

by Thomas Gomart @ThomasGomart and Éric-André Martin (eds)

The coronavirus pandemic acts as a dual catalyst. It is testing the resilience of the EU and its members, torn between China from where the virus originated and the US where it is arriving. There is a profound redistribution of power not only between the US, China and the EU, but also between national states and major digital platforms. Who of the first or the latter are today, will be tomorrow, the main organizers of our lives? The Chinese party-state and/or Amazon? National authorities and/or individual solidarity? This study identifies the main strategic, technological, commercial and energy, and analyses the first consequences of the coronavirus. (FR - 58 p.)

TERRA NOVA

Le tissu industriel français face au Covid-19: “stop and go ?” Ou “stop and die ?”

by Thibaud Frossard @ThibaudFrossard and Clément

Jakymiw @JakymiwClement

The French industrial sector was weakened even before the exponential growth of the Covid-19 in Europe, by the repercussions of the shocks on supply and demand suffered by the Chinese economy between January and February 2020. Faced with chains of 'supply more and more exposed to China, certain sectors were consequently from the beginning of March, in a situation of virtual supply shortage. The gradual disintegration of supply chains and the difficult adaptation of production units to a situation of health crisis, led the French industrial sector to a un quasi-halt. (FR - 11 p.)

ELINKEINOELÄMÄN TUTKIMUSLAITOS (RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE FINNISH ECONOMY)

Korona-sokki talouteen: missä määrin Suomi on riippuvainen ulkomaisista arvoketjuista? (Corona-shock hits the economy – to what extent Finland is dependent on global value chains?)

by Jyrki Ala-Yrkkö and Tero Kuusi @TeroKuusi

The spread of coronavirus has caused distortions to global value chains. This report studies how dependent Finnish companies and industries are on raw materials, components and other intermediate goods/services that they use in their own production. (FIN - 10 p.)

LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY

La risposta italiana alla crisi sanitaria: Pensare oggi il futuro del paese

Italy’s response to the health crisis: thinking today about the country’s future

by Carlo Bastasin @CarloBastasin, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Marcello Messori et al.

This brief analyses the Italian response from the economic and financial point of view to the COVID-19 pandemic, explaining how the Italian government reacted to the crisis with

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important measures to support the employment and income of all those directly affected by the crisis, as well as to help businesses in difficulty. The controversial topic of the ESM is also discussed. (IT - 4 p./ EN - 4 p.)

DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH)

Coronavirus plunges the German economy into recession

by Claus Michelsen @ClausMichelsen, Marius Clemens

@MariusClemens, Max Hanisch et al.

The spread of the coronavirus worldwide is exerting considerable pressure on the economy. It is difficult to predict how the pandemic will progress. Figures on the impact of the virus, obtained by comparing it with previous epidemics provide rough approximations at best. Based on the model calculations, Germany can expect to suffer huge economic losses. (8 p.)

FUNDACION DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMIA APLICADA

Un escudo europeo para proteger el empleo

by Marcel Jansen @mjansen_madrid

All countries are considering measures to mitigate the economic impact of the crisis due to COVID-19. The example to follow is Germany. This country has just announced a package of measures with no spending limit that guarantees liquidity to companies and aid to affected people. This article explains the urgency of implementing similar measures in all European countries and not only in those that can afford it for the good health of their public accounts. Putting it into practice requires a strong fiscal response from Europe on a scale never seen before, especially if the health crisis continues. (ES - 5 p.)

TERRA NOVA

La mondialisation à l’heure des comptes

by Hubert Védrine

Despite the anxiety and the emergencies, the battle for the future has already started between those who want to return to "normal" as quickly as possible, those who want to change everything for ecological, social or other reasons, and those who want to continue globalization but by correcting its deleterious effects. (FR - 8 p.)

ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)

Covid-19 – a trigger for global transformation? Political distancing, global decoupling and growing distrust in health governance

by Mika Aaltola @MikaAaltola

Since late 2019, the world has sought to appropriate policies for responding to the coronavirus pandemic. This paper reviews the political significance of Covid-19 in order to understand the ways in which it challenges the existing domestic order, international health governance actors and, more fundamentally, the circulation-based modus operandi of the present world order. (14 p.)

INSTITUTO ESPANOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATEGICOS

Emergencias pandémicas en un mundo globalizado: amenazas a la seguridad

At present there are a number of factors that have triggered alarms about the increased possibility of a local outbreak becoming a global pandemic. Each new outbreak has the potential to have geopolitical consequences. The severity of these impacts depends on the country’s connection with the rest of the world, on the mortality of the outbreak and on its form of propagation. The dual use of synthetic biology is a major concern due to the difficulty in preventing it due to the lack of codes of conduct in the scientific community, the circulation of information and people thanks to globalization and the Internet, and the lack of verification systems. (ES - 266 p.)

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ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)

This time is different. The “COVID-shock” and future of the global oil market

by Giuliano Garavini @GaraviniG

Global oil demand is dropping due to the recession induced by the COVID-19 shut down of economic activity and transport in the most industrialized countries, generating increasing pain in the oil industry and in the political and financial stability of oil-producing countries. This article analyses both dimensions, concentrating on the OPEC countries, suggesting that a destructive price-war will ultimately endanger decarbonization efforts, and will increase political and economic instability in OPEC countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, that are key regional actors. (7 p.)

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP

COVID-19 and conflict: seven trends to watch Covid-19 et conflits: sept tendances à surveiller

COVID-19 y conflicto: siete tendencias para vigilar

Deadly and disruptive as it already is, and terribly as it could yet worsen and spread, the 2020 coronavirus outbreak could also have political effects that last long after the contagion is contained. This report identifies seven points of particular concern. (EN-16 p. / FR -19 p. / ES -19 p.)

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE

Elections and COVID-19

The spread of communicable diseases such as COVID-19, and the measures to contain the virus imposed by governments and state agencies, have both constitutional and technical implications for the timing and administration of elections. (5 p.)

PROGRESSIVE POLICY INSTITUTE (PPI)

Emergency economics: fighting a recession in 2020 and beyond

by Ben Ritz @BudgetBen and Brendan Mcdermott

@BrendanBMcD

The outbreak of COVID-19 has created a global market downturn and put the US on track for its first recession since the 2008 financial crisis. Quarantines, social distancing, and other proactive measures are already limiting commerce and disrupting global supply chains, essentially ensuring that the US economy will contract for at least some period of time in 2020. Policymakers must adopt a combination of thoughtful public health and macroeconomic policy measures that will limit the damage caused by both this and future recessions. (21 p.)

RAND EUROPE

Assessment of COVID-19's impact on small and medium-sized enterprises. Implications from China

by Jennifer Bouey

As the first country hit by the new coronavirus, China’s epidemic patterns and actions and the combined impact on China’s SMEs may provide some useful insights for the US government and businesses. It summarises the epidemic’s impact on the global supply chain and a few recommendations on the control of the epidemic and assistance for US SMEs facing the epidemic. (15 p.)

ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)

China, Italy and COVID-19: benevolent support or strategic surge?

by Francesca Ghiretti @Fraghiretti

This article examines the bilateral relationship between Italy and China one year after the signature of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on China’s Belt and Road Initiative. It analyses the elements that have contributed to the success of the Chinese aid campaign, based on the lack of alternative support in the early stages of the crisis (see EU response) and a savvy media promotion strategy. (5 p.)

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ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)

Technology: an exit strategy for COVID-19?

by Cristian Barbieri @Barbiericr and Jean-Pierre Darnis

@jpdarnis

This article describes the Chinese and Israeli model of social control to counter the COVID-19 pandemic which provide an example of a digital regime that Europe does not want to reproduce. These models raise a number of concerns, with regards to ethics, privacy and data protection legislation. The article advocates for a European model, based on a number of important dimensions: the control of temporary processes by technically secured public bodies within the coordination/standard range of the EU, also involving digital privacy bodies, and an individual right to openly share individual data in times of crisis, but also to withdraw and cancel the data when the epidemic is over. (6 p.)

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP

The Gaza Strip and COVID-19: preparing for the worst

The coronavirus is now present in Gaza, the populous Palestinian enclave blockaded by air, land and sea since 2007. An epidemic would be calamitous. Hamas should tighten public health measures; Israel should loosen restrictions so that medical supplies can enter and afflicted Palestinians can leave. (12 p.)

INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH

Children of the pandemic: policies needed to support children during the COVID-19 crisis

by Clare McNeil @claremcneil1, Henry Parkes

@Henry_J_Parkes, Rachel Statham

@rachelstatham_et al.

The Covid-19 crisis is asking a great deal of the nation’s children, as well as their parents, carers and wider families. Schools and childcare facilities have closed, exams are on hold, and normal social activities are confined to online interactions. The paper argues that while the UK government has

taken strong actions to support firms and some workers, further measures are needed in support of children and their families. (10 p.)

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SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS

SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

Charles Michel as President of the European Council: the first 100+ days

by Ralf Drachenberg @RalfDrachenberg and Susana Anghel

Charles Michel began his term in dynamic mode, aiming to make his mark in foreign affairs and develop the EU's interinstitutional relations. While pursuing his predecessors' efforts to secure unity between EU leaders, Michel has applied his own style, visible notably in his discourse, social media presence and transparency efforts. An analysis of the President's Twitter activities shows his strong focus on EU-Africa relations, climate and, most recently, COVID-19. (5 p.)

FRIENDS OF EUROPE (FOE)

Localising Europe

by Dorthe Nielsen and Dharmendra Kanani

The EU urgently needs to demonstrate that it is relevant to the concerns and day-to-day challenges of citizens. 60% of people living in Europe feel it would make no difference if the EU were no longer here tomorrow. Europe is in crucial need of a systematic approach to engage more directly with citizens and ultimately close the trust gap. It sets out the rationale, added value and ways in which to localise Europe. In the context of the Commission’s mission to “bring Europe closer to home” the paper sets out how this might happen. (12 p.)

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

Collective intelligence at EU level: social and democratic dimensions

by Nora Milotay @NoraMilotay and Gianluca Sgueo

@GianlucaSgueo

The coronavirus crisis is likely to change society and our economy in ways as yet too early to predict. Recovery will require new ways of thinking and acting to overcome common challenges. To mobilise collective intelligence across the EU and to fully exploit its innovative potential, the EU needs to strengthen its education policies and promote a shared understanding of a holistic approach to innovation and of collective intelligence – and thus become a 'global brain,' with a solid institutional set-up at the centre of a subsidised experimentation process that meets the challenges imposed by modern-day transformations. (11 p.)

NOTRE EUROPE - INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS

Représentation et participation: réinventer la démocratie européen

by Gaetane Ricard-Nihoul

The semantic evolution is notable: the word "participation" of citizens in the European project has found its place in the official documents of the European institutions, in particular for the preparation of the Conference on the Future of Europe, in order to give "a new impetus for European democracy”. The use of the term "participation" on this scale honors and compels Europeans. It honors us because the EU could be the first transnational political space to reinvent democratic practice, by combining representation and participation. It obliges us because it implies not to stop in the middle of the ford and to take seriously the weak signals of our current democracies. (FR - 30 p.)

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SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS

CHATHAM HOUSE - THE ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

The future of democracy in Europe: technology and the evolution of representation

by Hans Kundnani @hanskundnani

To the extent that perceptions of a crisis in liberal democracy in Europe can be confirmed, this paper investigates the nature of the problem and its causes, and asks what part, if any, digital technology plays in it. (44 p.)

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COMPETITIVENESS (INTERNAL MARKET, INDUSTRY, RESEARCH

AND SPACE)

CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES

Public procurement: how open is the European Union to US firms and beyond?

by Lucian Cernat @Lucian_Cernat and Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova

This brief makes four basic points: public procurement is a key area of trade negotiations, and the EU remains committed to promoting further non-discriminatory access to procurement markets both at home and abroad; the existing levels of openness in procurement markets need to be assessed across all three procurement modalities and not only on direct cross-border procurement; similar procurement data does not exist for the US market; and the importance of procurement as a key negotiating area requires better data and a greater analytical engagement internationally. (10 p.)

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

Trade and competitiveness policies in the European Council

by Izabela Cristina Bacian and Marko Vukovic

Over last three years the Council has placed high emphasis on the need for the EU to be able to defend itself against unfair trade practices, through strengthened defence

instruments, greater surveillance of foreign direct investment, and broader access to public procurement markets abroad. The objectives set out in its Strategic Agenda for 2019-24 reflect a need for a more assertive and united EU on the global stage, able to tackle the technological and environmental challenges of the coming decade. (40 p.)

ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)

A Europe fit for the digital age: the quest for cybersecurity unpacked

by Simona Autolitano

This article deals with the complex theme of cybersecurity which represents the backbone for making “Europe fit for the digital age”, as digitalisation and cyber are understood as “two sides of the same coin”. It examines President von der Leyen’s intention to increase cooperation, suggesting the development of a “joint cyber unit” at the EU level to favour a more centralised cybersecurity approach and to boast some pretty solid pillars: resilience, deterrence and response. (6 p.)

FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES (FEPS)

Key technologies in the digital transformation: towards a social science taxonomy of digital technology

by Johan Røed Steen

The paper aims to map the key technologies underpinning the digital transformation, and to provide a structured framework. Digital platforms, the merging of the internet and our physical environment (e.g. the ‘Internet of Things’), and automated decision-making systems, more commonly known as ‘artificial intelligence’, are identified as particularly capable of having a significant impact. The paper concludes that under the prevailing socio-economic conditions, these digital technologies carry significant risks for the cohesion of European societies. (28 p.)

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FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES (FEPS)

Smart cities: a key to a progressive Europe

by Peter Bihr @peterbihr

This paper takes a critical look at the prevailing mode of governing digital technology at the level of the city. It argues that a progressive approach to smart city projects should ensure transparency, accountability, and participation. A crucial tool for public authorities will be the use of public procurement to enforce these standards. It concludes with practical advice to public authorities, to ensure their smart city projects lead to more democratic and equitable outcomes. (26 p.)

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS

CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES

Overcoming the gridlock in EMU decision-making

by Stefano Micossi and Fabrizia Peirce

The completion of EMU, and banking union as its critical component, requires that certain taboos in the policy debate are brought out in the open. The ESM should offer the banks and financial investors in general a true European safe asset, fully guaranteed by its member states, which would purchase in exchange the sovereigns held by the ESCB as a result of the quantitative easing asset purchase programme. The risk of losses on these sovereigns would continue to lie with the national central banks, thus avoiding the transfer of new risks to the ESM. (22 p.)

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

Is the current "fit and proper" regime appropriate for the banking union?

by Andrea Resti

EU rules on fit and proper are a patchwork of high-level principles and national law. Deep cross-country differences affect both the

assessment process and the criteria used. New level 1 measures are required to impose common requirements on knowledge, experience, good repute, independence and conflicts of interest, and to unify procedural aspects across member states. Meanwhile, the ECB should assign a public score to individual board members and disclose the motivations behind its fit and proper assessments. (24 p.)

EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE

Pushing the limits: the European Central Bank's role in restoring sustainable growth

by Jörg Bibow @JoergBibow

The ECB is a special, even unique central bank. It is a central bank without a treasury by its side or a state behind it, just as the euro, Europe’s common currency that the ECB is tasked with guarding, is a ‘denationalised’ currency. The euro area is a rare exception to the global ‘one state, one currency’ rule. But the ECB is not the only central bank in the euro area. Rather, the ECB is designed as the headquarters of the eurosystem, the system of European central banks that also includes the national central banks of EU member countries that have adopted the euro as their common currency. (61 p.)

BRUEGEL/ FUNDACION ICON

Facing the lower bound: what will the ECB do in the next recession?

by Aliénor Cameron, Grégory Claeys @gregclaeys

and Maria Demertzis @mariademertzis

In responding to the global financial crisis, the ECB has pushed its monetary policy into unchartered territories. Today, it appears increasingly constrained by persistently low interest rates. This paper seeks to understand this challenge and assess whether its toolkit would allow the ECB to weather a European recession. (28 p.)

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NOTRE EUROPE - INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS

Solidarité dans la zone euro: combien, pourquoi, jusqu’à quand?

by Sofia Fernandes @fernandesofiaEU and Eulalia

Rubio @eulaliarubio

Since the start of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area, the term "solidarity" has been at the heart of European political debates. The degree of solidarity necessary to get out of the crisis is also an object of confusion: some consider that too much has already been done and warn against the risk of transforming the EMU into a "transfer union"; others believe that the only way to save the euro is to establish an explicit and permanent mechanism of solidarity between EMU member states. (FR - 17 p.)

BRUEGEL

How has the macroeconomic imbalances procedure worked in practice to improve the resilience of the euro area?

by Agnès Bénassy-Quéré @agnesbq1 and Guntram B. Wolff

This paper shows how the macroeconomic imbalances procedure could be streamlined and its underlying conceptual framework clarified. It recommends inter alia involve national macro-prudential and productivity councils, better connect the various recommendations, simplify the language and further involve the Commission into national policy discussions. (54 p.)

LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY

Breakup and default risks in the Eurozone

by Giovanni Bonaccolto, Nicola Borri @nicolaborri and Andrea Consiglio

Since the burst of the sovereign debt crisis, investors perceive the concrete possibility of a breakup of the eurozone. The paper exploits credit default swaps quotes for contracts denominated in different currencies and with different default clauses to estimate the network of breakup and default risk spillovers in the eurozone. The result is that redenomination shocks to

France and Italy have economically large spillovers. However, while redenomination shocks to France increase the risk of a breakup of the eurozone, redenomination shocks to Italy increase the risk of sovereign defaults, like sovereign debt restructurings. (51 p.)

BRUEGEL

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context

by Grégory Claeys @gregclaeys, Maria Demertzis

@mariademertzis, Marta Domínguez-Jiménez

@MartaDomnguezJ1 et al.

This report presents an overview of the recent trends of capital flows, focused especially on the past year. It provides a detailed analysis at the global level and at the EU level. While both the surpluses and the deficits of emerging economies are diminishing, a shift in the distribution of global surpluses away from China and towards oil exporters has taken place throughout 2018, mainly as a result of the increase in the price of oil over that same period. (193 p.)

CENTER FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Does low inflation pose a risk to economic growth and central banks reputation?

by Marek Dabrowski

The low inflation in advanced economies in the years following the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 provoked fears of deflation. While the authors agree that deflationary pressures, which largely resulted from financial disintermediation posed a major challenge to central banks in the previous decade, they do not believe that they continue to be a problem today nor in the near future. (53 p.)

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EDUCATION / YOUTH / CULTURE / SPORT

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

Rethinking education in the digital age

by Anette Braun, Anna März, Fabian Mertens et al.

Rethinking education in the digital age should become a central matter for today’s policy-makers and matters for safeguarding European values such as equality, democracy and the rule of law. This study presents policy options on the basis of a thorough analysis of current strengths and weaknesses, as well as future opportunities and threats for education in the digital age. (64 p.)

EMPLOYMENT / SOCIAL POLICY / HEALTH AND CONSUMER

AFFAIRS

FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK)

Women at the top of the income distribution: are transition countries different?

by Jesper Roine and Christina Sarah Hauser

This brief reviews recent research on women at the top of the income distribution. The overall trend across a number of countries is that, while women are still a minority, their share in top income groups has steadily increased since the 1970s. (8 p.)

INSTITUTO PORTUGUS DE RELACOES INTERNACINAIS

Politicas publicas para a promoção da igualdade de género

by Pamela Mossmann de Aguiar

The UN agenda 2030 contemplates in its 5th sustainable development goal (SDG) gender inequality. This working paper presents some of the areas where gender inequality is present, and presents some existing or possible public policies to be implemented to combat this problem. (PT - 7 p.)

CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES

Study to gather evidence on the working conditions of platform workers

by Zachary Kilhoffer, Willem Pieter De Groen, Karolien Lenaerts et al.

This study provides an overview of the challenges faced by platform workers and details the variety of policy responses in EU countries. Platform work is understood as all labour provided through, on, or mediated by online platforms in a wide range of sectors. Challenges include the information available to the workers about their working conditions, dispute resolution, collective rights and non-discrimination. (285 p.)

EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE

Labour in the age of AI: why regulation is needed to protect workers

by Aída Ponce Del Castillo @APonceETUI

Superpowers, states and companies around the world are all pushing hard to win the AI race. Artificial intelligence (AI) is of strategic importance for the EU. This brief argues that a framework must be solidly founded on regulation – which can be achieved by updating existing legislation – and that it must pay specific attention to the protection of workers. Workers are in a subordinate position in relation to their employers, and in the EU’s eagerness to win the AI race, their rights may be overlooked. (16 p.)

POLICY NETWORK

Towards a new pensions settlement - Volume III. The international experience

by Gregg McClymont @greggmcclymont, Andy Tarrant

and Tim Gosling @gosling_tim (eds)

Delivering a stable income in retirement should be the primary focus of any workplace pension system. This is notably not the case in most Anglo-Saxon countries, including the UK, which has recently undergone a retirement income market liberalisation. This volume explores how successfully defined contribution pension saving systems can deliver a decent retirement income for low-

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and middle-income earners, comparing the pension systems in Canada, Chile, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Indonesia, Switzerland, and the UK. (143 p.)

DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR ENTWICKLUNGSPOLITIK (DIE)

The role of values for social cohesion: theoretical explication and empirical exploration

by Daniel Nowack and Sophia Schoderer

This discussion paper offers some clarification on the general role of values for social cohesion. Values are notions about desirable, trans-situational end-states and behaviours. The paper provides a critical discussion of the most prominent conceptualisations and their operationalisation in the social sciences. Values affect social cohesion in three possible pathways: when they are shared; when they promote behaviour per se conducive to social cohesion and through their effect on policy choice and institutional design. (54 p.)

NOTRE EUROPE - INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS

Santé: une plus-value européenne très perfectible

by Isabelle Marchais @IMarchais

Health policy is an exclusive competence of the member states; the EU has only a supporting competence, which essentially provides for coordination and cooperation. Once passed, the Covid-19 crisis should be an opportunity to review existing systems and reflect on the implementation of a real common European health policy, including in terms of industrial production. More than ever, citizens are asking Europe to protect them, in health and in other areas. (FR - 11 p.)

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES

The European Green Deal after corona: implications for EU climate policy

by Milan Elkerbout @MilanElkerbout, Christian

Egenhofer @CEgenhofer, Jorge Núñez Ferrer

@jnunez_ferrer et al.

Climate change policy cannot be the first priority of the EU for the immediate future. However, in spite of the corona-crisis the urgency of climate change mitigation has not disappeared. It will be important to ensure that recovery measures are compatible with global climate change and European Green Deal priorities. The re-launch may actually offer a unique opportunity for the EU to live up to the Green Deal’s promise of economic modernisation along the Paris decarbonisation objectives. (12 p.)

EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE

Adapting to change: time for climate resilience and a new adaptation strategy

by Sofía López Piqueres, Marco Giuli @MarcoGiuli and

Annika Hedberg @AnnikaAhtonen

This paper calls on the EU to mainstream adaptation and shift its focus from reacting to disasters to a more proactive approach that prioritises prevention, risk reduction and resilience building. It argues that the EU can make a difference by concentrating on the following in its upcoming adaptation strategy: improve the conversion of science-based knowledge into preventive action; close the protection gap through effective insurance schemes; adopt nature-based infrastructural solutions; and address the funding and investment gap. (36 p.)

BRUEGEL

A European carbon border tax: much pain, little gain

by Ben McWilliams and Georg Zachmann

@GeorgZachmann

The Commission should not make the implementation of a carbon border

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adjustment mechanism into a must-have element of its climate policy. There is little in the way of strong empirical evidence that would justify a carbon-adjustment measure. Moreover, significant logistical, legal and political challenges will arise during the design. The EU should instead focus upon the implementation of measures to trigger the development of a competitive low-carbon industry in Europe. (19 p.)

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

Carbon emissions pricing: some points of reference

by Cécile Remeur

Several countries around the globe are either planning to implement or have introduced carbon-emission pricing measures with varying scope, coverage and boundaries. There are broadly two approaches: the emissions trading system (cap and trade) and carbon taxing. The number of jurisdictions having adopted or intending to adopt carbon pricing has increased but still remains limited, in particular as regards the level of emissions covered. One concern is to address 'carbon leakage'. Measures addressing carbon leakage are now at the top of the EU agenda. (11 p.)

IFRI

The recycling of lithium-ion batteries: a strategic pillar for the European battery alliance

by Raphaël Danino-Perraud

Although it is still marginal, the market for electric vehicles (EVs) is growing. EVs accounted for a little more than 2% of the light vehicle market in 2019. This was up by 54% compared to 2018, but EVs still only represent 0.8% of the global car fleet. That said, the International Energy Agency estimates EVs could make up between 15% and 30% of vehicle sales in 2030. However, while European manufacturers have so far developed EVs, they are highly dependent on Asian companies for the supply and manufacture of materials for cells and electric batteries. (52 p.)

GENERAL AFFAIRS

NOTRE EUROPE INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS

The member state compartment of the InvestEU fund: how does it work? Will it fly?

by Eulalia Rubio @eulaliarubio

For the next Multi-annual Financial Framework (MFF) covering the 2021-27 period, the Commission proposes to bring together the multitude of EU budget programmes providing financing in the form of loans and guarantees into a single programme: the Invest-EU Fund. Building on the success of the Juncker Fund, the goal of this new programme is to trigger at least 650bn of additional investment across the Union during the following seven years. (21 p.)

EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE

Setting the bounds of the European Union

by Andrew Duff @AndrewDuffEU

The EU’s enlargement policy is in contention. President Macron links further progress towards the accession of the Western Balkans to the Union’s own need for internal deepening. Brexit sharpens the debate about the size of the Union and may offer new opportunities, short of membership, for the EU’s wider neighbourhood. The Commission’s proposals to reform the accession process are well meaning but inadequate. The European Council needs to adopt a strategic approach, including spelling out its real intentions with respect to the Balkans. (12 p.)

NOTRE EUROPE INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS

How would the EU accession procedure really improve?

by Andreas Eisl

Following its veto of the opening of accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania in October 2019, the French government circulated a non-paper

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proposing an overhaul of the EU accession procedure. The document outlined a comprehensive reform based on a reinforced “carrot & stick” approach. In response, nine EU member states led by Italy, Poland, Austria and Slovenia shared their own vision of a reformed accession process, less ambitious in terms of scope and retaining more flexibility. Drawing on these reform options, the Commission designed its own reform plan for the EU accession talks, integrating elements from both non-papers. (12 p.)

DAHRENDORF FORUM

From fatigue to resistance: EU enlargement and the Western Balkans

by Spyros Economides

The narrative of prospective EU enlargement has recently been dominated by ‘enlargement fatigue’. Today, this narrative has changed to one of ‘enlargement resistance'. This paper argues that the policy of EU enlargement is now contingent on the double resistance offered by internal fragmentation and external inability to comply with accession criteria. As a result, enlargement is likely to stall, even in those WB countries apparently closest to meeting the criteria for accession. (25 p.)

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

Towards a renewed territorial agenda for the EU

by Christiaan van Lierop

The territorial agenda 2020 is currently being revised with a view to establishing a continued role for this initiative within the EU's new cohesion policy framework beyond 2020. The agenda strives to promote the integration of the territorial dimension across many different policies. However, with the territorial agenda a low political priority in past years, implementation has remained weak, while the process itself has been beset by challenges. The ongoing coronavirus crisis looks set to overshadow these discussions in the coming months. (12 p.)

JUSTICE AND HOME AFFAIRS

CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES

Cross-border access to e-evidence: framing the evidence

by Gloria González Fuster @FusterGloria and Sergi Vázquez Maymir

This paper aims at situating the policy discourse accompanying current EU initiatives on facilitating access by public authorities to data held by private companies, including in scenarios regarded as crossing jurisdictional borders. More concretely, it contextualises these initiatives in light of the absence of publicly available statistical information on some of the issues which are at the very core of these matters. (18 p.)

EUROPEAN UNION INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES

A blacklist is (almost) born: building a resilient EU human rights sanctions regime

by Clara Portela @DrClaraPortela

If human rights breaches constitute the dominant motivation for the imposition of EU autonomous sanctions, what is holding up the approval of the prospective regime? Designing a horizontal sanctions regime in the EU is a much harder task than meets the eye. This brief aims to unravel the challenges that make it difficult for this regime to take shape, and suggests ways in which the obstacles identified may be surmounted or, at the very least, mitigated. (8 p.)

EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE

EPIM policy update - March 2020

by Marie de Somer @MarieDeSomer, Alberto-Horst

Neidhardt, Olivia Sundberg Diez @OliviaSundberg1 et al.

This publication discusses the upcoming new pact on migration and asylum. Other key highlights include an analysis of the emergency situation at the border between Greece and Turkey, the worrisome implications of Italy’s cooperation with Libya,

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insufficient and slow relocations from Italy and Malta and lack of resettlement from Niger. (16 p.)

MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE

Chasing efficiency: can operational changes fix European asylum systems?

by Hanne Beirens

With new EU leadership having taken office in late 2019, Brussels is hungry for fresh ideas that will either revive or reform the Common European Asylum System. The heightened arrivals of asylum seekers and migrants on European shores in 2015–16 sent policymakers across the continent scrambling for new strategies to manage migration. (61 p.)

GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE

Nothing but Schengen matters. Updating Schengen: political and technocratic patches

by Alena Kudzko @AlenaKudzko

Turkey’s decision in early March 2020 to encourage thousands of migrants to try to cross into Europe and the coronavirus pandemic have brought back a heightened level of anxiety. The durability and resilience of the Schengen zone is now being questioned once again. This paper aims to evaluate the progress made over the past several years, highlight potential future scenarios for the Schengen zone, and propose recommendations on how to fix Schengen in order to improve its functionality. (21 p.)

POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)

Can aid solve the root causes of migration? A framework for future research on the development-migration nexus

by Patryk Kugiel @PKugiel , Henriette U. Erstad, Morten Bøås et al.

An important dimension of the EU’s response to the 2015 refugee and migration

management crisis has been to address the root causes of irregular migration. A major tool the EU has to mitigate push factors of migration is development assistance. Yet, the casual relationship between aid and migration is complex and far from obvious. This article summarises the ongoing debates and major findings concerning the development-migration nexus in order to better inform policymakers about the potential risks and shortcomings of using aid in migration management. (10 p.)

ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE (ISPI)

The future of migration to Europe

by Matteo Villa @emmevilla (ed.)

This report tries to take a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. It analyses the structural trends underlying migration flows, the interaction between migration and specific policy fields (such as development, border management, and integration), and the policies to put in place for safe and orderly migration. It shows that migration does not need to be feared, and neither should it be approached as an intractable phenomenon. (155 p.)

WILFRIED MARTENS CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES

Lifting the integration veil: outcasts from Islam in western Europe

by Tommaso Virgili @TommasoVirgili_

Quantitative surveys and reports among Muslims of immigrant descent in Western Europe show the persistence of a divergence from mainstream views on topics such as gender equality, religious freedom and sexual orientation. Due to a lack of adequate integration policies, primary victims of this phenomenon are to be found within the Muslim communities themselves. This paper argues that integration policies should be adopted in the framework of school curricula, reception centres and integration courses, and should always be tailored to individuals. (81 p.)

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TRANSPORT / TELECOMMUNICATIONS /

ENERGY

E3G

Benchmarks for the new trans-European networks for energy regulation (TEN-E)

by Elisa Giannelli @elisagiannelli6 and Lisa Fischer

@FactFisching

In the last decade, the Trans-European networks for energy regulation has become a key instrument for delivering an integrated and shock resilient EU energy system. Energy infrastructure is critical to the success of the European Green Deal, the renewed political mission of the Union. The EU’s ability to deliver on its commitment of climate neutrality by 2050 will depend on decarbonising the energy sector, which is currently responsible for more than 75% of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions. (17 p.)

INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES

The secret war of cyber influence operations and how to identify them

by David Tayouri

Social media is an effective way of influencing human society and behaviour and shaping public opinion. Cyber influence operation means using cyber tools and methods in order to manipulate public opinion. This paper will describe cyber influence operations, the potential damages that they could incur, and how they are conducted. (18 p.)

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SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS

FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY / DEFENCE

DAHRENDORF FORUM

Enhancing Europe's global power: a scenario exercise with eight proposals

by Christoph M. Abels, Helmut K. Anheier, Iain Begg et al.

The authors formulate eight policy proposals aimed at countering Europe´s vulnerabilities and enabling it to assert its sharp and soft power more effectively. (15 p.)

UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)

The Nordics and the new European security architecture

by Björn Fägersten @BFagersten

This study summarizes recent developments in European security cooperation, analyses the added value of the new structures and discusses what these might mean for Nordic security and the Nordic states. (36 p.)

UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)

Securing a shared neighbourhood: the European Union and India as partners for security in Africa

by Emil Lidén @LidenEmil

This brief examines the potential for deeper security cooperation on Africa, which is a

“shared neighbourhood” of the EU and India. (14 p.)

STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)

Umgang mit den Risiken des Klimawandels: Welche Rolle für den VN-Sicherheitsrat?

by Susanne Dröge @droege_s

The demands on the UN Security Council are closely linked to the international climate negotiations. Germany's commitment to climate policy must therefore be broad and long-term in times of dwindling multilateralism. The German EU Council Presidency in the second half of 2020 should be used to develop a comprehensive agenda for dealing with climate risks together with member states and EU partners. (DE - 36 p.)

EUROPEAN UNION INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES

Digital divide? Transatlantic defence cooperation on artificial intelligence

by Simona R. Soare @Simona_Soare

There has been little scrutiny in Europe of how the evolving US approach to AI affects European defence and the broader transatlantic partnership. What implications does the US artificial intelligence strategy have for Europe and for transatlantic cooperation? This brief finds that cooperation with the US on the digital modernisation of defence remains a strategic necessity for Europe, but a mix of new and pre-existing dynamics in the relationship risks the emergence of a transatlantic digital divide. (8 p.)

EUROPEAN UNION INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES

Digitalising defence: protecting Europe in the age of quantum computing and the cloud

by Daniel Fiott @DanielFiott

This brief aims to fill a gap in the EU’s understanding of how digitalisation could

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affect Europe’s armed forces and wider defence. It looks firstly at the meaning of digitalisation and existing initiatives in the defence sector, then at the limits of digitalisation in defence, and finally at the specific challenges of digitalisation in defence. (8 p.)

EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY)

Examining Central and Eastern Europe’s climate policy through a security lens

by Danielle Piatkiewicz @dpiatkiewicz

As the global community gathers to tackle the current Covid-19 virus, the future of the Commission’s recent European climate law and European Green Deal remains unclear. For countries in the CEE region where climate and security links are not strongly interconnected, and governments place internal and external security-related issues ahead of climate - can emphasizing the security aspects of climate-related risks help drive a more proactive approach to climate change policies beyond the EU framework? And if so, can it be further integrated into the region’s already robust security agenda? (6 p.)

UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)

Reaching climate security: how climate change moved up the Security Council agenda

by Sofie Berglund @sofieberglu

The topic of climate security has raced up the UN Security Council agenda in the recent years. There is still no consensus on whether the UNSC is the right arena for climate discussions. This paper offers an overview of the progress of the climate security debate in the Security Council and examines the defining moments leading up to where we are today. (22 p.)

INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU CLINGENDAEL NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Ready for take-off? Military responses to climate change

by Louise van Schalk, Dick Zandee, Tobias von Lossow et al.

The military is only just becoming aware of the scale of the social and environmental impacts that climate change will have in the coming decades. Increasing droughts, floods and severe weather events threaten large numbers of the world population. This report illustrates the fact that oftentimes climate change not only acts as a threat multiplier in theatres of military operations, but also has direct implications for military capabilities, as it leads to calls for assistance to civil society in home territories. (102 p.)

POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)

NATO deterrence and arms control policy in a world without the INF treaty

by Artur Kacprzyk @ArturKacprzyk, Łukasz Kulesa

@lukasz_kulesa and Marcin A. Piotrowski

@Ajatollah_MAP

To maintain effective deterrence and internal cohesion in a post-INF Treaty world, especially in the face of the growing Russian missile threat to Europe, NATO needs to act in two areas. To enhance its military posture, the Alliance ought to quickly mobilise available defensive and offensive capabilities, plan and exercise their use, and be ready to further adjust its posture in the future. A more proactive NATO arms-control position could help shape the discussion in the longer term and counter Russian efforts to divide the Alliance. (8 p.)

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RAND EUROPE

Enhancing deterrence and defence on NATO’s northern flank. Allied perspectives on strategic options for Norway

by James Black, Stephen Flanagan, Gene Germanovich

@geneDC et al.

As a founding member of NATO, Norway supports efforts to enhance deterrence, crisis management and regional security in the North Atlantic and High North — a region commonly understood to include territories in Scandinavia and northern Russia, as well as the surrounding waters of the Arctic Ocean, Barents Sea and North Sea. Researchers examined the perspectives of defence officials from Denmark, France, Germany, the UK, the US and NATO institutions and this analysis fed into a summary of findings alongside five strategic options. (96 p.)

EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

Network of impunity: corruption and European Foreign policy

by Chris Raggett @RaggettChris

European governments have failed to prevent corrupt actors from laundering hundreds of billions of dollars through the international financial system and their own economies. This breakdown in the rule of law empowers kleptocratic regimes across the globe, which capitalise on the political culture underpinning Europe’s approach to globalisation. European policymakers should aim to catch up with, and overtake, their US counterparts on anti-money laundering regulation and enforcement. European countries should create national institutions that are dedicated to countering kleptocrats. (30 p.)

TRADE

CENTER FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Turning away from globalization? Trade wars and the rules of competition in global trade: implications for the EU

by Jan J. Michałek and Przemysław Woźniak

The trade war between the US and China began in March 2018. The American side raised import duties on aluminium and steel from China, extended later to Canada, Mexico and the EU member states. This drew a negative reaction from those countries and bilateral negotiations with the US. Will this trade war mean the collapse of the multilateral trading system and a transition to bilateral relationships? What are the possibilities for increasing tariffs in light of World Trade Organization rules? Can the conflict be resolved using the WTO dispute-resolution mechanism? What are the consequences of the trade war for American consumers and producers, and for suppliers from other countries? (EN/PL - 51 p.)

CENTER FOR TRANSATLANTIC

RELATIONS

The transatlantic economy 2020

by Daniel S. Hamilton @DanSHamilton and Joseph Quinlan

This study provides key insights about the US and Europe in the global economy. It explains what trade spats and Brexit mean for the transatlantic economy; how US-European commercial relations compare with those each has with China and other rising powers; how the digital economy is revolutionizing economic relations; how European and US companies are powering the transatlantic energy economy, and how decision-makers and business leaders can address current opportunities and challenges. (182 p.)

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DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR ENTWICKLUNGSPOLITIK (GERMAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE)

The trade effects of the economic partnership agreements between the European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific group of states: early empirical insights from panel data

by Frederik Stender, Axel Berger @ax_berger, Clara

Brandi @ClaraBrandi et al.

This study provides early ex-post empirical evidence on the effects of provisionally applied economic partnership agreements (EPAs) on two-way trade flows between the EU and the African, Caribbean and Pacific group of states (ACP). Employing the gravity model of trade, the study does not find a general EPA effect on total exports from ACP countries to the EU nor on total exports from the EU to ACP countries. (36 p.)

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM

How can trade rules support environmental action?

by Ghislaine Weder, Janet Whittaker, Penelope Naas et al.

This paper highlights the links between trade and the environment, summarizes efforts to date and outlines five ways in which trade rules could support environmental action. (9 p.)

DEVELOPMENT

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE

Democracy and peacebuilding in the framework of SDG 16+: policy recommendations from an interregional and multistakeholder approach

Sustainable Development Goals 16 is both an outcome and enabler of sustainable development. Its overarching objectives are to promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all, and to build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels. (35 p.)

AFRICA

STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Ethiopia’s transition: implications for the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region

by Jason Mosley @africaupdate

The intersection of two significant trends are affecting the regional dynamics of the Horn of Africa: the political transition underway in Ethiopia since 2018 and evolving Red Sea and Gulf security dynamics. (30 p.)

STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE

The challenges of governance, development and security in the central regions of Mali

by Mamadou Bodian @bodiansocio, Aurélien Tobie

@aurelientobie and Myriam Marending

@MyriamMarending

Since 2015 Mali’s central regions have become insecure hotspots at the confluence of interconnected challenges in terms of governance, development and security. Although international interventions involving a full range of actors and sectors are being increasingly reoriented towards these regions, the sustainability of the responses depends on their ability to draw on the needs and priorities of local communities. (16 p.)

RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL

Africa-Russia: achievements, problems, prospects

by Andrey Kortunov, Nataliya Zaiser, Еlena Kharitonova et al.

Africa entered the 21st century with significant achievements and challenges relevant for both the development of the continent and world affairs. Although Africans are responsible for finding solutions to arising problems themselves, Russia is quite capable of making its unique contribution to the search. This report provides an analysis of the possibilities of building a multilateral system of cooperation between Russia and world powers with the

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African community. Such cooperation would be based on the principles of respect for sovereignty and non-interference in the internal affairs of African states. (58 p.)

DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR ENTWICKLUNGSPOLITIK (DIE)

Digitalisation and its impact on SME finance in Sub-Saharan Africa: reviewing the hype and actual developments

by Sabrina Disse and Christoph Sommer

This paper aims to answer the question what the role of digital financial instruments in SME finance in Sub-Saharan Africa is. It reviews and discusses the opportunities and challenges of digital advances for SME finance in general and of three specific financing instruments, namely mobile money (including digital credits), crowdfunding (including peer-to-peer lending) and public equity. Main findings indicate that even though digital advances have led to impressive growth of certain digital finance instruments, it has not triggered a remake of the financial system. (65 p.)

ASIA-OCEANIA

KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE)

The Asia-Europe meeting process: roles and prospects

by Máté Szakáli

The 24-year-old Asia-Europe meeting (ASEM) process faces similar challenges and criticism today as it did during its early years, as it lacks public awareness and visibility, and its achievements are not easily quantifiable. Given this context, this paper provides a broad-brush overview of the ASEM process from the perspective of its role evolution and role prospects. (11 p.)

INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES

Mapping out EU-South Korea relations: key member states' perspectives

by Ramon Pacheco Pardo @rpachecopardo (ed.)

What is the perspective of key EU member states towards South Korea? While EU-South Korea relations have attracted growing attention in recent years, the relationship between key EU member states and the Asian country remains underexplored. This report analyses the recent evolution of the relationship between Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland and Sweden, on the one hand, and South Korea on the other. The report covers the areas of economic relations, security relations, bilateral relations and North Korea, and cultural relations. (80 p.)

NEW CLIMATE INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE POLICY AND GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY

The Mongolian electricity sector in the context of international climate mitigation efforts: emission pathway projections for the electricity sector and analysis of associated health impacts

by Frederic Hans @_frhans, Leonardo Nascimento

@ltf_nascimento, Tessa Schiefer et al.

This report provides a synthesis of the results of three years of supporting governmental and non-governmental constituencies with analytical support for the energy supply sector. At the core of the work were two strands: scenario analysis to support the understanding of the implication of the long-term temperature goals of the Paris agreement; and analysis of socio-economic impacts of the energy transition. (55 p.)

ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)

Managed leadership succession in Kazakhstan: a model for gradual departure?

by Kristiina Silvan @KristiinaSilvan

In March 2019, Kazakhstan’s authoritarian leader, Nursultan Nazarbayev, stepped down after three decades of rule and yielded

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power to his nominated successor, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev. Despite the careful preparation and Tokayev’s relatively smooth ascension to power, it is still too early to evaluate the success of the transfer due to the vast powers retained by Nazarbayev. (8 p.)

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP

Twelve ideas to make intra-Afghan negotiations work

Eighteen years after the US war with Afghanistan’s Taliban began, all sides are taking the first formal steps toward a political settlement. From designating a neutral mediator to agreeing on “rules of the road”, the report lays out twelve prerequisites for keeping the talks going. (12 p.)

UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE

Taliban fragmentation: fact, fiction and future

by Andrew Watkins @and_huh_what

The US and Afghan governments have, at various times, intentionally pursued strategies of “divide and defeat” in an attempt to fragment and weaken the Taliban. These approaches have proved ineffective and, as long as peace efforts are being pursued, should be discontinued. Contrary to lingering narratives from earlier eras of the Afghan conflict, the Taliban today are a relatively cohesive insurgent group and are unlikely to fragment in the near term. This report examines the phenomenon of insurgent fragmentation within Afghanistan’s Taliban and implications for the Afghan peace process. (28 p.)

EASTERN EUROPE

ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)

Ukraine and its regions: societal trends and policy implications

by Ryhor Nizhnikau and Arkady Moshes @almoshes (eds)

Since the Euromaidan revolution, self-identification and attitudes within Ukrainian

society have changed profoundly. This report takes stock of the identity changes both nationwide and in three major oblasts. (80 p.)

UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)

The long war in Donbas: causes and consequences

by Ingmar Oldberg

This paper first describes Donbas and its people, and the events that led to war – the revolution in Kyiv and Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. It then analyses the course of the war in Donbas, peacemaking efforts and the resulting situation in the separatist areas. (21 p.)

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP

Imagining a resolution of Venezuela’s crisis Imaginando una resolución a la crisis venezolana

Venezuela’s political showdown appears deadlocked. President Nicolás Maduro remains firmly in place over a year after the opposition behind Juan Guaidó mounted its campaign to supplant him. The gap between the sides is wide, but conversations with pragmatists reveal the outlines of a potential compromise. (EN - 40 p./ ES - 43 p.)

MIDDLE EAST / NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP

Avoiding a populist surge in Tunisia Tunisie: éviter les surenchères populistes

Tunisians went to the polls in September and October 2019, and the results have shaken up the country’s political scene. The new political class has sustained a populist surge that has fuelled political tensions, polarised society and reduced the country’s ability to meet economic and security challenges. To contain this surge, politicians should support

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the creation of dialogue mechanisms that bring together the main political, trade union, administrative and associative actors. (EN - 16 p./FR -17 p.)

EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

Digital stability: how technology can empower future generations in the middle east

by Manuel Langendorf

The growth of the digital economy in the MENA could become one of the key solutions to the region’s youth unemployment crisis. Governments in the region have taken steps to create an environment in which technology startups can thrive. However, they need to overcome challenges such as flaws in their education systems, bureaucratic inefficiency, and a lack of funding for new businesses. Digitization not only creates new opportunities for employment and political participation but also enables digital authoritarianism in the region. (36 p.)

IFRI

L’Iran et ses “proxys” au Moyen-Orient. Les défis de la guerre par procuration

by Morgan Paglia @Morgan_Paglia and Vincent Tourret

@VincentTourret

If nowadays Iran occupies such a central position in the Middle East, it is partly due to the action of a network of armed groups it uses as "proxies". The main architect of this strategy has been the al-Quds force, whose task is to coordinate and support the action of the militias. Some particularly advanced groups, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah or the Iraqi Badr organization, have also taken an active role in the structuring of the Iranian paramilitary network in the Middle East. The "axis of resistance" must nonetheless face major challenges today: the confrontation with the US, but also a growing political and social contention that denounces this militia system, in Iran itself as well as in the countries where it prevails such as Iraq and Lebanon. (FR - 56 p.)

ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)

Algeria: between popular protests, political uncertainty and regional turmoil

by Andrea Dessì @AndreaDess2 and Flavia Fusco @ff_flaviafusco

This briefing presents the recent developments in Algeria, the impact on neighbouring states and the relevance for Italian foreign policy towards Algeria and the broader North African region. (7 p.)

IFRI

Moyen-Orient : l'économie dans la course à la puissance

by Dorothée Schmid and Amine Benbernou

Nowadays Middle East geopolitics is undergoing structural changes: the regional order is in transition, in the wake of the Arab Spring, which shook authoritarian governance and freed power competition, against a backdrop of American withdrawal. This new race for regional domination calls into question the traditional hierarchy of powers, essentially based on military capacity and the game of external alliances. The economy, so far guaranteeing the political status quo by widely disseminating of the effects of the oil and gas rent, is now becoming a political weapon in interstate relations. (FR - 51 p.)

IFRI

Les économies du Golfe et la transition énergétique. Vers une ère post-pétrolière ?

by Hugo Le Picard

The Arabian Persian Gulf countries’ economies are highly dependent on petroleum, which they mainly export to Asia. This energy source - considered to be partly responsible for global warming – should be made to be less and less in demand. The states of the region anticipate the consequences of this fall in demand by seeking to diversify their economies. They invest in less polluting energies such as gas and solar power plants. (FR - 14 p.)

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ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)

Can the EU stand up to Trump’s “deal of the century”?

by Michelle Pace and Haim Yacobi

This article examines President Trump’s proposed “vision” for the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the positions of the different players, among which the EU. The High Representative J. Borrell made clear that the initiative departs from internationally agreed parameters and the EU therefore opposes “the deal”. However, EU member states are divided on Trump’s “deal of the century”. What can the EU do? In the face of US pressure and internal EU divisions, is there anything the EU can learn from Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal? (6 p.)

CLINGENDAEL NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Hope springs eternal: EU options for dealing with the Assad regime

by Erwin van Veen @ErwinVeen and Olivia Macharis

A re-orientation of EU policy towards the Assad regime is a matter of time, since the EU will face growing pressures to upgrade its current minimalist and largely ineffective approach. A strategy to contain the broader fallout of the Syrian civil war should be enacted with urgency. This is likely to be the most effective choice out of the range of policy options assessed in this policy brief. (12 p.)

WESTERN BALKANS

FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION) /CENTRE FOR THE STUDY FOR DEMOCACY AND GOVERNANCE

Albanian security barometer: national survey 2019

by Arjan Dyrmishi

The Albanian security barometer seeks to capture the public opinion’s attitudes and perceptions towards internal and external security threats, the performance of security and justice institutions, the relevance and

effectiveness of security policies, measures and actions. (89 p.)

CHINA

INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY

Emerging giant shaking up the EU? Impacts, challenges and implications of China’s investment frenzy in Europe

by Fatoumata Diallo and Niklas Swanström

Concerns have emerged about the long-term consequences of Chinese firms’ foray into European markets, as the accelerated trend of acquisitions in strategic sectors as well as the lack of reciprocity and openness in commercial relations with China, entails far-reaching consequences for the competitiveness and technological leadership of European enterprises on the long term. (58 p.)

FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)

Entwicklungsstaat China: Politik, Wirtschaft, sozialer Zusammenhalt und Ideologie

by Thomas Heberer und Armin Müller @Armin_Muller

The state acts as a disciplinary and moral state to steer heterogeneous society towards modernity. There is a close symbiosis between the state and companies that entrepreneurs use to safeguard their rights and interests more effectively. Successes in poverty reduction are based on economic growth, while social policy today only guarantees basic services. (DE - 55 p.)

RUSSIA

EVROPSKÉ HODNOTY (EUROPEAN VALUES)

Assessment of the Kremlin's malign influence in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and North Macedonia

by Veronika Víchová (ed)

This paper argues that the Kremlin has been exploiting the vulnerabilities and cleavages

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of the local society in the Central European region to push through its own narratives and pro-actively, yet rather cheaply, trying to stop or delay the accession process of several Western Balkans countries towards NATO and the EU. (46 p.)

UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)

Russia in 2045: a scenario analysis

by Martin Kragh @MartinKragh1

This study outlines possible scenarios for Russia to 2045. What happens in Russia will have far-reaching implications not only for Russia and its people, but also for Europe and the international system. (20 p.)

EUROPEAN UNION INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES

Russia's forays into sub-Saharan Africa: do you want to be my friend, again?

by Giovanni Faleg @gioFALEG and Stanislav Secrieru

@StasSecrieru

But what is driving Moscow’s renewed activism? How different it is from its previous diplomatic thrusts? Can a coherent strategy be discerned behind this push? Finally, how is sub-Saharan Africa reacting to Russia’s overtures and what does it mean for the EU? (8 p.)

RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL

Can Moscow and London find a way forward on the NPT?

The UK and Russia hold pivotal roles within the Non-Proliferation Treaty regime and share a common interest in its preservation and longevity. This report offers a set of recommendations on how the UK and Russia could display leadership, create opportunities, and positively shape the 2020 review conference and advance the NPT agenda beyond the conference. (8 p.)

IFRI

The return: Russia and the security landscape of Northeast Asia

by Bobo Lo

Northeast Asia has emerged as a critical theatre of Russian foreign policy in recent years. Moscow’s historical Westerncentrism is giving away to a new awareness about the vital importance of the region. The “turn to the East” now has genuine substance and impetus. Yet Russian policy is a work in progress, more opportunistic than strategic. The security landscape is complex and fluid, and Moscow has struggled to manage its contradictions. (39 p.)

IFRI

La politique arctique de la Russie : une stratégie de puissance et ses limites

by Marlène Laruelle

Russia continues displaying an ambitious policy for the Arctic region. Moscow sees the Arctic as one of its main strategic strongholds and a key region for the assertion of its status as a great power, as well as a major energy source. The Russian government has implemented strategies to promote a coherent policy of power and development, with some notable successes, but also mixed results. If the Arctic offers Russia an undisputed status of great power, this status is difficult to manage and costly for the state budget. (FR - 32 p.)

TURKEY

EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE

Could Turkey's new parties change the political balance?

by Amada Paul @amandajanepaul and Demir Murat

Seyrek @murat_seyrek

The establishment of two new political parties by Ahmet Davutoğlu and Ali Babacan in December 2019 and March 2020 is cause for hope. President Erdoğan’s AKP is suffering from mounting domestic headaches and a moribund economy, which is taking a toll on its public support. Still, he is sure to push back fiercely against any

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effort to weaken AKP rule. The EU must keep its channels of communication with Turkey open and work to improve and deepen their currently contentious relationship. (4 p.)

UNITED KINGDOM / BREXIT

WILFRIED MARTENS CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES

Making a more European Britain: the political, economic and societal impacts of Britain

by Tim Oliver and Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe

This paper sets out how Brexit is pushing the UK towards aligning more closely with the rest of Europe in its politics, society, economics and international position. Brexit has also confronted the British with several realities about the UK’s economy, society and place in the world that show it to be more European than many will have recognised. However, none of this should be taken to mean that divergence from Europe will not happen or be sought, or that the British people will eventually vote to rejoin. (54 p.)

CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS AND POLICY / CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE / GRANTHAM RESEARCH INSTITUTE ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENT / LSE GROWTH COMMISSION

Delivering strong and sustainable growth in the UK: a special decade for innovation and investment

by Sam Unsworth, Anna Valero @asvalero, Nicholas Stern et al.

This report summarises the case for increased and sustainable investment in the UK as the country enters a new decade with a government that has committed to reaching net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050, to redefining the UK’s role in the world and to reducing regional disparities. The report highlights particular areas of the economy where the public sector could leverage private investment and in so doing contribute to achieving the strategic priorities of regionally balanced growth and decarbonisation. (20 p.)

RAND EUROPE/ JOURNAL OF HEALTH SERVICES RESEARCH & POLICY

Healthcare utilization among migrants to the UK: cross-sectional analysis of two national surveys

by Catherine Saunders @DrCLSaunders, Adam

Steventon @ASteventonTHF, Barbara Janta et al.

According to this paper health care utilisation among migrants to the UK was lower than utilization among the UK-born population for all health care dimensions except inpatient admissions for childbirth. This study finds that newly arrived migrants tend to utilize less health care than the UK population and that this pattern was at least partly explained by better health, and younger age. (8 p.)

THE FOREIGN POLICY CENTRE

Finding Britain’s role in a changing world

by Adam Hug @AdamHug, Abigael Baldoumas

@abigaellane, Katy Chakrabortty @KTChakrabortty et al. (eds)

The UK is preparing for its post-Brexit place in the world at a time when the principles of liberal democracy and the rules-based world order are facing their greatest challenges in a generation. In a fast-changing world – from AI to climate change – having a clear approach to values in British foreign policy is not just about doing what we think is right or supporting institutions, norms and rules that the UK often played a key role in creating, but also about actively helping to shape the systems the UK will have to work within for decades to come. (60 p.)

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Trump, the Middle East, and North Africa: just leave things to the proxies?

by Sven Biscop

In late 2019, Trump had already withdrawn most troops from Syria, and now the February peace agreement with the Taliban will allow him to draw down the US military presence in Afghanistan too. The US is considering pulling its troops out of the Sahel

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as well. What does this mean for Europe? (7 p.)

KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE)

The struggle for technological supremacy: China's recent technological development and its interpretations

by Csaba Moldicz

This brief sheds light on how power relations have changed in recent years, focusing the technological competition between the US and China. The paper gives an overview of the struggle for technological supremacy between the two powers. The findings help answer the question whether claims concerning China secretly striving for technological supremacy can indeed be confirmed and what is probably even more important, whether this goal can be achieved. (11 p.)

NEW AMERICA FOUNDATION

The United States and natural disasters in the Pacific

by Francis Gassert @fgassert, Sharon Burke

@burkese and Rachel Zimmerman

Climate change is increasing natural disasters in the Indo-Pacific region, even as the vulnerability and exposure of the region’s huge population rises. China and other regional powers are improving disaster response capabilities, which may help the region overall improve its response or resilience, or may reduce US influence in the region. No matter what, the fate of all Pacific peoples will be tied together. (107 p.)

PROGRESSIVE POLICY INSTITUTE (PPI)

Getting back to basics on health care

by Josh Gordon @NIMHDirector

You can say one thing with certainty about health-care politics and the 2020 election: President Trump and Republicans still want to take away people’s health insurance. If they get their way, millions of Americans would lose coverage under the Affordable

Care Act and Medicaid, and many more would be stuck with skimpier health insurance. That’s a stark fact US voters should keep in mind as the coronavirus spreads across the country and threatens to shut down much of our economy. Democrats have fought against this in Congress, at the state level, and in the courts. (10 p.)

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GERMANY

FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)

Jobwende: effects of the Energiewende on work and employment

by Markus Hoch, Jannis Lambert, Almut Kirchner et al.

Growing social inequality, societal polarisation, migration and integration, the climate crisis, digitalisation and globalisation, the uncertain future of the EU – Germany faces profound challenges. Social democracy must provide convincing, progressive and forward-looking answers to these questions. The project “for a better tomorrow” is working on recommendations and positions in six central policy areas: democracy, Europe, digitalization, sustainability, gender equality and integration. (48 p.)

INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT KÖLN (COLOGNE INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH)

Enabling public investment

by Hubertus Bardt @H_Bardt, Sebastian Dullien

@SDullien, Michael Hüther @michael_huetheret al.

Public investment has been badly neglected in Germany over the past two decades, with the result that the public capital stock no longer meets the standards of a modern economy and is inadequate for the challenges that will be posed by demographic change and Germany’s international decarbonisation commitments. (23 p.)

DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR ENTWICKLUNGSPOLITIK (DIE)

The implementation of the G7 and G20 gender equality goals in Germany

by Axel Berger @ax_berger, Sören Hilbrich and Gabriele Köhler

In recent years, the Group of Seven (G7) and Group of Twenty (G20) have placed increasing emphasis on gender equality. As part of this focus, the member states of both institutions have set out a series of objectives aimed at advancing gender equality. This report examines the degree to which these goals have been implemented in Germany; the gender equality goals that both institutions have set out since 2009; the current state of progress in Germany and measures that have already been undertaken to implement the goals. (45 p.)

FRANCE

FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)

Die Werte der Franzosen : Entwicklungen, die Anlass zu Optimismus geben

by Pierre Bréchon

Social cohesion is based on a solid foundation of values: tolerance and altruism have increased over the years, social participation, trust in others and xenophobia remain stable. The attitudes characterized by individualization increase in all areas of life (family, religion, work, politics), but do not lead to social selfishness. A mixed picture emerges when it comes to attitudes towards democracy: despite a clear commitment to representative democracy, alternative or authoritarian political systems are becoming increasingly popular. (DE - 14 p.)

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ITALY

FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)

Security policy in the Southern neighbourhood: a view form Rome

by Alessandro Marrone @Alessandro__Ma

The enlarged Mediterranean region is Italy’s top priority. National interests at stake include the protection of energy supplies and maritime routes, the stabilisation of Libya and the reduction of migrant flows. Italy usually looks for a politicodiplomatic solution, sustained by a long-term military commitment. Rome always seeks a multilateral format for its actions, particularly within the EU and NATO. Italo-French relations have been troubled since the 2011 war in Libya. Germany and EU institutions have played an important role in the region to foster stabilization. (10 p.)

LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY

Overcoming the gridlock in EMU decision-making

by Stefano Micossi and Fabrizia Peirce

This brief concentrates on the completion of EMU and the banking union as its critical component and specifically on the situation of Italy. It explains that the Commission must stop pretending that Italian public debt is sustainable under current policies. It is necessary to acknowledge that crisis management by the ESM is blocked as long as its financial assistance can only be granted after the country in need is close to losing market access and this threatens the financial stability of the entire euro area. It explains that the completion of the banking union requires a reduction of banks’ home sovereign portfolios. (20 p.)

ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)

La minaccia dei droni duali e le sfide per l’Italia The threats of dual-use drones and the implications for Italy: executive summary

by Ester Sabatino @Ester_Sab1 and Francesco

Pettinari @Fra_Pettinari

In recent years, the proliferation of dual-use drones has increased the intensity of the hybrid and asymmetric threat these products may pose. This threat affects both national security and that of personnel employed in out-of-area missions. It is necessary to define a comprehensive regulatory framework to protect both users and operators in charge of countering this type of drones. Italy has so far distinguished itself by its willingness to lead the development of such capabilities at the European level. (IT - 80 p./ EN - 7 p.)

ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)

Le forze italiane in missione all’estero: trend e rischi

by Alessandro Marrone @Alessandro__Ma and Michele Nones

In 2020, Italy deployed about 7,300 soldiers abroad, divided into 35 missions in 24 countries of Europe, Greater Middle East and increasingly Africa. The main contingents are in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Libya, Niger and Somalia. This commitment is a constant in Italian defence policy and it represents a demanding and long-term effort for the military. (IT - 18 p.)

ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)

Italian military operations: coping with rising threats and declining US leadership

by Alessandro Marron @Alessandro__Ma

The articles presents the role of Italy in the context of the NATO military operations in a new era, where Italian armed forces need to adjust to a changing operational environment, whereby threat levels are on the rise and the US is more reluctant to lead military operations than in the past. (5 p.)

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NETHERLANDS

INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES

National cybersecurity strategies in the healthcare industry of Israel and the Netherlands: a comparative overview

by Stefan Weenk

The rapid pace of society’s technological innovations has created a set of transformative opportunities in the healthcare industry, notably elevating the quality of life while subsequently serving as a permeable arena for cybercriminals. This study compares the current national cybersecurity strategies and regulations used by Israel and the Netherlands to protect the healthcare sector against cyber threats and presents recommendations for future strategies and regulations. (23 p.)

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MISCELLANEOUS

MISCELLANEOUS

ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE (ISPI)

Work in progress. The end of a world, part II

by Alessandro Colombo and Paolo Magri

@paolo_magri (eds)

The liberal world of Western hegemony that emerged in the aftermath of WW2 and that we thought had triumphed when the Cold War finished is over. Today, we live in a period of transition to a new world, the shape of which we cannot yet clearly discern. This report explores three questions: who are the key actors working on the construction of the new international order? In what areas are they working, or rather competing and collaborating? And what shape does this competition and collaboration assume on the regional chessboards of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America? (195 p.)

INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

The rules-based multilateral order: a rethink is needed

by Pádraig Murphy

The rules-based multilateral order with which we are familiar is essentially a Western one, which has been added to and amended since the end of World War II. In the last 75 years, technological development has made the world an ever more single space. The dynamics of world organisation have changed with the emergence of more than one hundred new states, the inexorable rise of China and the increasing impact of civil society and of corporations on world affairs. New challenges, climatic, social and

technological, have arisen. The established system needs to be rethought. (8 p.)

KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG

Die Muslimbruderschaft im Westen. Überlegungen zu Begrifflichkeit und Analyse

by Lorenzo Vidino

Danger to democracy or harmless belief movement? There are conjectures, trivializations and suspicions surrounding the Muslim Brotherhood in the West. What is certain is that the movement has long been established in most western countries. Clear criteria and terminological care are essential to properly assess and analyse its activities and networks. (DE - 12 p.)

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM-THE GRADUATE INSTITUT GENEVA

Mobilizing the private sector in peace and reconciliation

by Amara Amadiegwu, Maya Kihiu and Manuel Simon

The annual cost of conflict is a trillion dollars. Clearly wars pose various challenges to business operations and profitability, whilst elusive political stability makes investors hesitant. It is therefore not surprising that private sector actors are increasingly intentional in trying to make a contribution to immediate and long-term peace. (87 p.)