the weidt group - MN ASHRAE€¦ · Modeling Knowledge ]Models allow us to imitate something we may...
Transcript of the weidt group - MN ASHRAE€¦ · Modeling Knowledge ]Models allow us to imitate something we may...
PAGE 1 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
DAVID A. EIJADI, FAIA
the weidt group®
collaborationanalysisresearch
HIGH PERFORMANCE BUILDINGS
WWW.TWGI.COM
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PAGE 2 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Building Performance ExpectationsHow and When to Set Them and Reset Them
The watchwords of our times for existing buildings include energy, measurement and accountability. Existing buildings are range in age from zero to forever. With all this attention on all these buildings, the challenges of setting realistic expectations of performance can be enormous.
We’ll look at which benchmarks and baselines you may need to use to set correct expectations.
We Believe as much as we can. We would believe everything if we could.- William James
What if we were rocket scientists
PAGE 3 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Building Performance ExpectationsHow and When to Set Them and Reset Them
The secret to being seen as successful at prediction is to give and event or a time…but never both
USGBC and ASHRAE want their EUI
The Obama administration is looking for accountability
EEPS and REEPS
Ed Mazria is still looking for the big red button
PAGE 4 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP We are the Cause of our Own ConfusionPlease Define
Standard
Code
Benchmark
Baseline
Modeling
PAGE 5 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP We are the Cause of our Own Confusion
Energy modeling software tools are simply calculation tools — they are programmable calculators. Each has strengths and weakness and take time to learn to use well. We’ll assume that everyone in this discussion knows their tools and uses them well.
Energy tools are designed to model a single solution by integrating and aggregating many calculations in iterative time steps.
They do an enormous number of calculations in a short time and produce massive amounts of data.
There is no new math … no new physics.
PAGE 6 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP We are the Cause of our Own ConfusionPlease Define
There is however a vast number of variables to be input or accepted as default.
Setting up all the model variables can be very time consuming.
Accepting too many defaults can be risky and some modelers produce fewer models (less data) with more uninvestigated defaults
PAGE 7 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP We are the Cause of our Own Confusion
The charge to the design team — regardless of what else is said — is ultimately to design a solution through design services.
It is their core expertise and energy modeling software tools tend to be used as programmable calculators from one of two points of view
To test the hypothesis of a solution in service to the design and selection of equipment and
To prove attainment of a threshold like LEED points.
PAGE 8 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP We Can’t Know Everything all at OnceOn Thought and Decision Making
One Study at LBL suggests that at best every other decision we make is rational. The alternate is intuitive.
PAGE 9 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP We Can’t Know Everything all at OnceOn Thought and Decision Making
Our best decisions are a finely tuned blend of both feeling and reason
The mix depends on the situation
More than 4 Variable and the evidence says we are easily lead astray
When buying a house or a car it's best to let our unconscious mull over the many variables.
The human brain to register bad news more strongly than good. “Negativity bias” explains why in the average marriage it takes five compliments to make up for a single cutting remark
From the perspective of the brain, new ideas are merely several old thoughts that occur at the exact same time
PAGE 10 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Human Beings
Left BrainLogical
Sequential
Rational
Analytical
Objective
Looks at parts
verbal
Black & White
Numbers
Sequence
Analysis
Lists
Critical Thinking
Right BrainIntuitive
Random
Holistic
Synthesizing
Subjective
Looks at wholes
Imagery
Color
Rhythm
Imagination
Daydreaming
Dimension
Creative Thinking
What if we were rocket scientists
PAGE 11 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Rocket Science
Science is a body of empirical, theoretical, and practical knowledge about the natural world, produced by researchers making use of the scientific methods emphasize the observation, quantification, and prediction of real world phenomena by experiment.
There is the dual status of science as objective knowledge and as a human construct.
PAGE 12 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Decision Making
Three basic kinds of information are needed
Information regarding policies and objectives
Information regarding possible alternatives and consequences
Information regarding the current state of the system From the Human
Factors Design Handbook
PAGE 13 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Types of InformationProcessing Errors
Failure to detect the information due to overload or interference
Misidentification due to insufficient or inadequate clues
Improper weighting of the informational factors due to insufficient conceptualization of the action choices
From the Human Factors Design
Handbook
PAGE 14 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP What is to be Known
Total expected annual energy consumption
Relative energy consumption compared to Individual component alternatives
Integrated system alternatives
Code / baseline alternatives
Credits / points /awards
Incentives / rebates / tax deductions
It is the mark of an instructed mind to rest satisfied with the degree of precision which the nature of the subject permits and not to seek an exactness where only an approximation of the truth is possible.
- Aristotle
PAGE 15 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP The Code
Are based on Standards
Require interpretations and protocols
Establishes a minimum baseline
Raises minimum design standards
Code enforcement is less available than commonly assumed
Insufficient budgets for training and inspection
Codes do not address value
PAGE 16 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Standards Vs. Analysis
Baseline Design
Design Assistance
Rating SystemDoes not helpmaking decisions
Analysis
PAGE 17 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Common Pitfalls
The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance— it is the illusion of knowledge
Daniel J Boorstin, Librarian of Congress
Model Expectation
Reality
SOURCE: THE WEIDT GROUP
Overcome
PAGE 18 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Modeling Knowledge
Models allow us to imitate something we may someday have in the real world. Energy modeling—is about predicting the flow of energy demands and supplies throughout a building over relatively small increments of time so that we can use that information to inform the design and operation of what we build.
Over the past twenty-five years, computerized energy simulation models of buildings have moved from the realm of experimentation and design innovation into more general acceptance in design practice. However, these models are often not well understood.
PAGE 19 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Modeling Knowledge
Any sampling will produce a range of sentiments from appreciation to mistrust depending on individual expectations and success with energy models. But, opinions can easily be off the mark and without an understanding the design intent of the specific energy model.
There are those who point out that there are still differences between energy models and actual building energy usage.
All models are intentional abstractions and are not created equal. This presentation is intended to help you develop your own view point.
PAGE 20 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Uncertainty Architects and Engineers
Degrees of uncertainty Master Planning
Plans +/- 10 to 1000 Feet
Pre-designPlans +/- 10 to 50 Feet
Conceptual DesignPlans +/- 5 to 20 Feet
Schematic DesignPlans +/- 1 Foot
Design Development Plans +/- 0.083 Foot
Contract Documents Plans +/- 0.021 Foot
Degrees of uncertainty* Master Planning
Energy +/- 25%
Pre-designEnergy +/- 20%
Conceptual DesignEnergy +/- 15 to 20%
Schematic DesignEnergy +/- 15%
Design Development Energy +/- 15%
Contract Documents Energy +/- 5%
* Depends on skill of the modeler
PAGE 21 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Modeling Knowledge
Energy modeling is not concerned with appearances. It is about behaviors we can not see but that impact us and our environment.
To model energy behaviors we need data on staticassemblies like the walls, windows, roof, structure, floors and insulation.
These assemblies, though predominantly static, are subject to energy flows – transmitting or resisting energy according to their mass, size, location and other properties. Collectively, these assemblies define the speed and effectiveness with which the architecture responds to or mitigates the natural environment.
Others will decide what is best for you according to their own interests.
What you do not assume – others will assume for you
PAGE 22 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Modeling Knowledge
A weather file called a Typical Meteorological Year, containing actual data from a real year, is used to model the architectural interaction with the environment.
Much depends on what the operators of the building will do in spite of what was set as design/modeling parameters. The uncertainty introduced by human behavior is sometimes cited as a reason not to do hourly energy simulation modeling and to use older, coarser methods for the design of architecture and mechanical systems.
PAGE 23 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP The LeverUncontrolled Properties
To model correctly, data on other dynamic energy sources and loads in the building such as
Hours of occupancy
Numbers of people
Process loads
Computers in use
Lighting design and control
Intended control of temperature / humidity ranges and outside air
All of these are dynamic sources of useful energy or a dynamic load to be mitigated.
Mathematical models exist for all these sources but this last set contains the greatest number of uncertainties.
PAGE 24 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
Who Walls Roof Structures Floors Insulation HVAC Eq. Weather Hours Numbers Processes Plug Loads Design Control Design Control
Developer 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Owner 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Tennant 1 2 2 1 1 2 2Architect 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Engineer 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2
Lighting Designer 1 1 1 2 2Occupant 2 2 2 2
Assumes 1Decides 2
Occupancy Non‐Regulated Energy Lighting Temp and Humidity Dynamic Conditions Static Assemblies
What remains a variable? Who controls them What becomes verifiable?
Who Walls Roof Structures Floors Insulation HVAC Eq.
Developer 1 1 1 1 1 1Owner 1 1 1 1 1 1
TennantArchitect 2 2 1 1 2 1Engineer 1 1 2 1 1 2
Lighting Designer Occupant
t plain knows better
Assumes 1Decides 2
Static Assemblies
Who Weather Hours Numbers Processes Plug Loads Design Control Design Control
Developer 1 1Owner 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Tennant 1 2 2 1 1 2 2Architect 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Engineer 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2
Lighting Designer 1 1 1 2 2Occupant 2 2 2 2
t plain knows better
Assumes Decides
Occupancy Non‐Regulated Energy Lighting Temp and Humidity Dynamic Conditions
PAGE 25 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
SchDes DesDev ConDoc ConStr ComOcuConDes
Modeling CertaintyThe Model is Perfect
Well—not exactly perfect but, the model assumes a perfectly built facility with perfectly installed and commissioned equipment occupied by perfectly trained and well behaved people.
Is this really too much to ask?
Actual Energy Use
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Kno
wle
dge
PAGE 26 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
SchDes DesDev ConDoc ConStr ComOcuConDes
Modeling CertaintyDesign Uncertainty
What is in fluxMaster planning / site selection
Total program area
What is in fluxInterior program arrangement
Façade development
What is in fluxMechanical system design
Lighting system design
What is in fluxEquipment selection
Controls specifications
What is in fluxCO’s/Substitutions
Shop Drawings and Installation
What is in fluxIntensity of use
Mechanical system controls
Model Uncertainty
Design Uncertainty
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Kno
wle
dge
PAGE 27 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP A Selected 88The Set
PAGE 28 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP A Selected 88The Set
PAGE 29 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
Variable Air Volume System / Water Cooled Centrifugal Chiller / All Electric
A Selected 88The Set
Common Strategies for all 6 Buildings Efficient glazing system
Daylight harvesting- dimming daylighting controls
Efficient envelope
Lighting controllers- occupancy sensors, central EMS
Efficient lighting design
Efficient mechanical system- chillers, fans and pumps
CO2 control of ventilation air
Efficient equipment
PAGE 30 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP A Selected 88The Set
Home Mortgage Bldg D264,758 sf
Based upon field-review of the conservation measures, the project has the potential to save:
30% kWh per year
491 peak kilowatt electrical demand
2,955 MWh of electrical consumption annually
4,712,502 pounds of reduced carbon dioxide emissions
14,743 pounds of reduced sulfur dioxide emissions
8,952 pounds of reduced nitrous oxide emissions
PAGE 31 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP A Selected 88The Set
Home Mortgage Bldg A-K-L124,749 sf
Based upon field-review of the conservation measures, the project has the potential to save:
27% kWh per year
165 annual peak kilowatts in electrical demand
Over 884,739 kWh of electrical consumption annually
Over 1,411,159 pounds of reduced carbon dioxide emissions
Over 4,415 pounds of reduced sulfur dioxide emissions
Over 2,681 pounds of reduced nitrous oxide emissions
PAGE 32 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP A Selected 88The Set
Home Mortgage Bldg J 278,496 sf
Based upon field-review of the conservation measures, the project has the potential to save
25% kWh per year
469 annual peak kilowatts in electrical demand
2,444,264 kWh of electrical consumption annually
7,970,745 pounds of reduced carbon dioxide emissions
13,541 pounds of reduced sulfur dioxide emissions
13,541 pounds of reduced nitrous oxide emissions
PAGE 33 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP A Selected 88The Set
Home Mortgage Bldg C262,180 sf
Based upon field-review of the conservation measures, the project has the potential to save
28% kWh per year
481 annual peak kilowatts in electrical demand
2,662,129 kWh of electrical consumption annually
4,246,096 pounds of reduced carbon dioxide emissions
13,284 pounds of reduced sulfur dioxide emissions
8,066 pounds of reduced nitrous oxide emissions
PAGE 34 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
Sq.Ft.
264,758278,496262,180124,749
930,183
Code Base -Electric (kWh)
9,747,2749,943,1679,376,6173,336,822
32,403,880
Selected Bundle Savings -
Electric (kWh)
3,131,9943,146,7642,959,5861,148,505
10,386,849
Verified Savings -
Electric (kWh)
2,954,5472,444,2642,662,129884,739
8,945,679
Percent kWh
30%25%28%27%
28%
Percent Verified
93%79%90%76%
86%
Project Name
WDM Home Mortgage Bldg DWDM Home Mortgage Bldg JWDM Home Mortgage Bldg CWDM Home Mortgage Bldg A-K-L
WDM Well Fargo Totals
PAGE 35 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP ResultsEnergy Cost Savings – Presented ACEEE Fall 2006
Average – 38% Average – 30%
Ener
gy C
ost S
avin
gs (%
)
Highest Savings BundleSelected BundleLowest Savings Bundle
Credit - LEED Projects Cash - Utility Projects
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
Range of New Codes
PAGE 36 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP The LeverVerification
Source: HVAC Training and Quality Assurance, Tom Downey, Proctor Engineering Group, Ltd.
Measured Savings as a Percent of Achievable Savings (running average)
Program Startup, Learning Curve with Technician FeedbackProduction with Feedback Maintained
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Disaster when Feedback was Removed
PAGE 37 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Benchmarking MethodsComparisons
Compare a building to itself over time. i.e. utility bills
Compare a buildings rank within a population of similar building type and location.i.e, Energy Star
A Relative comparison typically expressed as a percentile ranking
Compare a building to an absolute Energy Use Intensity benchmark of a informed model.i.e. B3 Tool – Buildings, Benchmarking and Baselining
Use of a building model set to current practice or base energy code parameters
PAGE 38 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP The Data*
102 Projects started with KJWW (and 40 architects)
58 Projects with analyzable data 35% better than Code in the Selected Bundle kWh Savings
31% better than Code in the Selected Bundle Dollar Savings 88% dollars/kWh savings
36 Projects with analyzable field data30 % better than Code in the Field-Verified Dollar Savings
97% implementation rate
19 Projects with detailed strategy selections30 % better than Code in the Field-Verified Dollar Savings
15 Million Square Feet $0.41 to $0.46 dollar savings per square foot
* The data covers a 10 year span and “holes” in the data reflect projects that proceeded complete data collection practices or are still in process.
PAGE 39 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
204%
117%108%
92%79%
67% 67% 63%
38%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Lighting Controls
Envelope Load Responsive
Outside Air Conditioning
Lighting Design Windows Cooling System
Efficiencies
Pump Motor Efficiencies
Heating System
Efficiencies
% Occurrence of Strategy Type Per Project
PAGE 40 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
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THE WEIDT GROUP
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Strategy Count/10
Number of Projects from High to Low Number of Strategies
Compare Strategy Count to % kWh Savings
Strat. Count %kWh Saved % $ SavedLinear (Strat. Count ) Linear (%kWh Saved) Linear (% $ Saved)
PAGE 42 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
21
18
16
15
14
14
13
13
13
12
12
10
0 5 10 15 20 25
Occupancy‐sensing lighting controls
Dual‐level lighting controls
High‐performance glazing
Premium motor efficiency
Increased roof insulation levels
Variable frequency drives on fan motors
Increased wall insulation levels
Efficient direct system lighting design
CO2 Control of outside air
Variable frequency drives on pump motors
Total energy recovery of outside air
High‐efficiency gas boiler
Strategies in Order of Frequency with 10 or More Occurrences
PAGE 43 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
50%
42%
8% 8%
0%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Increased roof insulation levels
Increased wall insulation levels
High‐performance roof insulation
High‐performance wall insulation
Green roof
Envelope Improvement Occurrence
PAGE 44 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
50%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
High‐performance glazing Exterior sun control
Window Strategies
PAGE 45 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
71%
67%
25%
13% 13%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Occupancy‐sensing lighting
controls
Dual‐level lighting controls
Stepped daylighting controls
Daylight dimming controls
Time sweep system lighting
controls
Strategic switching lighting
controls
Lighting Controls Occurrence
PAGE 46 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
29%
21%
8%
4% 4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
High‐efficiency DX cooling system
High‐efficiency air‐cooled chiller
High‐efficiency water‐cooled chiller
Ground source heat pump
High‐efficiency heat pump
Cooling System Efficiency Occurrence
PAGE 47 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
46%
38%
4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
CO2 Control of outside air Total energy recovery of outside air Sensible heat recovery of outside air
Outside Air Strategies Occurrence in 24 Projects
PAGE 48 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
PAGE 49 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP A Selected 88HVAC System Types
PAGE 50 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP A Selected 88 Major Cooling System
PAGE 51 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP A Selected 88Major Heating System
PAGE 52 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
PAGE 53 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
PAGE 54 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
PAGE 55 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
PAGE 56 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP The Weidt Group Paradigm
Model
Manage
Measure
Model
Manage
Measure
SM
PAGE 57 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Next and Now: Beyond M&V
Real-time carbon and energy management
PAGE 58 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Next and Now: Beyond M&V
Compare the model to the behavior
PAGE 59 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP Energy Design Assistancewith Measurement and Verification
Performance Based Leading Edge Innovation
DomesticatedCodified
Daylighting / New Technologies
LEED / Green Globes
Code / ABG
CNC / EDA
ResearchComparative Analysis integrates the best of all approaches to market transformation
PAGE 60 2009 ASHRAE MN © 2008
THE WEIDT GROUP
DAVID A. EIJADI, FAIA
JIM DOUGLAS, PE
BRIAN WASS, AIA
the weidt group®
collaborationanalysisresearch
HIGH PERFORMANCE BUILDINGS
WWW.TWGI.COM
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